Transcript: Minority Report | Jun 20, 2004

(music plays)

The opening sequence rolls.
Music plays as clips of politicians and demonstrations appear on an animated number 4.

Steve says THIS WEEK ON "4TH
READING."
BALANCE OF POWER.
WHAT CANADIANS CAN EXPECT, IF
WE'RE HEADED FOR A MINORITY
CONSERVATIVE OR LIBERAL
GOVERNMENT.

A clip shows male politicians in a TV debate.

The clip ends.

Steve and the three panelists sit around a table in the shape of a number 4. A logo on screen reads "4th reading."

Steve is in his early forties, clean-shaven, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray jacket over white striped open-necked shirt.

Steve says HI, I'M STEVE
PAIKIN.
WELCOME TO "4TH READING."
THE POLLS TELL US MOST
CANADIANS BELIEVE ON JUNE 29.
WE WILL WAKE UP TO ANOTHER
LIBERAL GOVERNMENT.
THE POLLS ALSO TELL US THIS
RACE IS FAR TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
IT IS MORE LIKELY WE WILL BE
STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A
MINOR GOVERNMENT COME JUNE 29.
WHO'S MINORITY GOVERNMENT, THE
CONSERVATIVES?
OR THE LIBERALS?
WHICH PARTY MIGHT HOLD THE
BALANCE OF POWER THE NDP OR
THE BLOC DE QUEBECOIS?

A clip plays.

A male TV host says NO MATTER HOW MANY SEATS
YOU GET, THE SEPARATIST PARTY
WILL NOT DICTATE TO ANY
RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT OF
CANADA.

A male politician in his sixties says I'M THE ONLY ONE WHO KNOWS
THAT I'LL BE IN YOUR POSITION,
TWO OUT OF THREE WILL BE WITH
ME.
BUT I KNOW, SO QUEBECERS KNOW
ALSO.
WHAT WE'LL DO, WE'LL DEAL WITH
A RESPONSIBLE WAY, AS WE
ALWAYS DID IN THE HOUSE OF
COMMONS.
IS TO REPRESENT AND DEFEND
QUEBEC'S INTERESTS AND
QUEBEC'S CONSENSUS.

A caption appears on screen. It reads "Brian O’Riordan. Inside Queen’s Park." Brian is in his forties, clean-shaven with combed black hair.

Brian says THE POTENTIAL FOR ALLIANCE
IS THERE, BUT CLEARLY THE
CONSERVATIVES WOULD HAVE TO
MOVE A LOT OFF OF THEIR
PLATFORM TO SATISFY SOME OF
THE THINGS THAT MISTER DUCET
WANTS, BUT A DEAL ISN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
HOW ORDINARY CANADIANS AND THE
REST OF CANADA WOULD SEE THAT
IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
THE BLOC HAS BEEN DEMONIZED AS
BEING SEPARATISTS AND
SOMETIMES A ALLIANCE MEMBERS
IN THE PAST, IN FACT HAVE
CHARACTERITED BLOC MEMBERS OF
PARLIAMENT AS TRADEORS TO THE
COUNTRY.
IT IS HARD TO SEE WHERE THEY
WILL HAVE A THE MEETING OF THE
MINDS.

Back in the TV show, a male politician with white hair says THE NUMBER ONE PRIORITY IS
REDUCTION OF WAIT TIMES.
NOW I AM PREPARED TO TO WORK
WITH ANYBODY, ANY PROVINCE,
ANY POLITICAL PARTY.
ANY GROUP OF MEDICAL PROVIDERS
TO ACHIEVE THAT GOAL.

A male politician with a moustache says WE ARE SAYING WE WILL STOP
THE PRIVIZATION GOING ON WITH
THE AMENDMENT TO THE CANADA
ACT.
IT IS WHAT WE WILL TAKE
FORWARD AN NDP-LEAD MINORITY
GOVERNMENT AND HAVING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE THAT WAY OR
IN OPPOSITION.

Brian says THE LIBERALS ARE A LITTLE
MORE HOPEFUL, IF THEY CAN
POSITION THEMSELVES WITH
ENOUGH SEATS, THAT THEY'VE GOT
SOME NATURAL ALLIANCES THEY
CAN MAKE WITH THE NDP, NOT
WITH THE BLOC.
I THINK A BLOCK-LIBERAL
ALLIANCE WOULD BE VERY TOUGH
TO SWALLOW FOR A LOT OF
LIBERALS WHO TEND TO BE STRONG
FEDERALISTS.

The clip ends.

Steve says WE ARE FORTUNATE TO
HAVE SOME FORMER PARLIAMENTARIANS
ALL PART OF MINORITY
GOVERNMENT, FORMER EDUCATION
MINISTER SEAN CONWAY. IFORMER
MINISTER FOR THE CONSERVATIVES, JANET ECKER.
AND FORMER EDUCATION
MINISTER FOR THE NDP, DAVE COOK.
SEAN, YOU FIRST.
YOU WERE ACTUALLY A MAJOR
PLAYER THE LAST TIME PEOPLE IN
ONTARIO HAD TO DEAL WITH A
MINORITY GOVERNMENT, ONTARIO
1995.
CONSERVATIVES WON 52,
LIBERAL WON 48, NDP
WINS 25 SEATS.
THEY HOLD THE BALANCE OF
POWER.
YOU WERE PART OF THE TEAM THAT
HAD TO NEGOTIATE FOR THE
FUTURE OF WHICHEVER PARTY
WOULD GET TO FORM GOVERNMENT.
IT WAS YOU GUYS AND PETERSON.
GIVE US SOME ADVICE AS TO WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE EVENT THAT
STEPHEN HARPER'S CONSERVATIVES
WIN A NARROW MINORITY
GOVERNMENT?
WHAT HAPPENS FIRST?

The caption changes to "Sean Conway. Former Liberal Cabinet Minister." Sean is in his late forties, clean-shaven, with blond hair. He’s wearing round glasses, a dark gray suit, a light blue shirt and a dark spotted tie.

Sean says WELL, EVERY MINORITY
ENVIRONMENT IS DIFFERENT.
IT HAS TO BE ASSESSED ON THE
BASIS OF ITS PARTICULAR
CHARACTERISTICS.
THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF ONTARIO
1985 WERE ESSENTIALLY ONE
PARTY HAD BEEN IN GOVERNMENT
FOR 42 YEARS.
THE OTHER TWO PARTIES THE
LIBERALS AND NEW DEMOCRATS
WERE GETTING RATHER TIRED OF
BEING PERMANENTLY IN
OPPOSITION.

Steve says YOUR THINK?

Sean says I WELL REMEMBER THAT.
THAT CIRCUMSTANCE WAS A RATHER
SPECIAL ONE.
PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS MATTER.
MINORITY GOVERNMENTS AND
MISTER DAVIS WAS SUSTAINED IN
OFFICE IN THE MID-70s BY AMONG
OTHER THINGS HIS GOOD
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LEADER
OF THE OPPOSITION.
STEVEN LEWIS AND, PERHAPS THE
ABLIST MINORITY GOVERNMENT
LEADER I HAVE EVER KNOWN BOB
WELCH.
PERSONALITIES, AND
RELATIONSHIPS MATTER.
IF THERE IS A MINORITY
PARLIAMENT IN OTTAWA AFTER THE
28TH OF JUNE.
THERE'S NO QUESTION THERE WILL
ONLY BE ONE BALANCE OF POWER
IT.
WILL BE THE BLOC DE QUEBECOIS.
I'M NOT PERSONALLY CONVINCE IT
HAD WILL BE A MINORITY.
IF IT IS A MINORITY, THE BLOC
WILL BE THE BALANCE OF POWER.
I DON'T SEE ANY WAY ARE -- I
SUPPOSE ONE CALL IMAGINE A SET
OF CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE
THEORETICALLY.
THE NDP CALL PROP UP THE
HARPER CONSERVATIVES.
I THINK IT IS NOT LIKELY.

Steve says IF THE BLOC IS THE
MINORITY PARTY HAS HELPS HOLD
UP THE MINORITY GOVERNMENT.
DAVE COOK YOU WERE PART OF THE
NDP CAUCUS AT QUEEN'S PARK
WHICH MADE A DECISION TO PULL
DOWN THE MILLER CONSERVATIVES
AND PROP UP THE PETERSON
LIBERALS. WHAT THINGS DOES THE
SMALLER PARTY IN THIS CASE THE
BLOC DE QUEBECOIS WANT IN
ORDER TO SUPPORT THE MINORITY
GOVERNMENT EVENTUALLY FORMED?

The caption changes to "Dave Cooke. Former NDP Cabinet Minister." He’s in his late forties, with short hair and clean-shaven. He’s wearing light green jacket and a light shirt.

Dave says I AGREE WITH SEAN.
IN 1985, EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS
NEGOTIATIONS WITH BOTH WITH
OUR PARTY WITH BOTH THE
LIBERALS AND THE
CONSERVATIVES.
IT WAS REALLY ONLY ONE OUT
COME THAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN
THAT.
WAS A CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT.
THE FIRST THING THAT I KNOW
THAT WE LOOKED AT WAS LET'S
LOOK AT ALL OF THE THINGS WE
HAVE IN COMMON WITH THAT PARTYY
FROM THE ELECTION PLATFORM.
LET'S PUT EVERYTHING IN ANY
KIND OF AN AGREEMENT WE MIGHT
ACHIEVE.
ONE, IS GET IT DONE.
TWO, WE GET A BIT OF CREDIT,
EVEN IF IT WAS IN THEIR
PLATFORM AND LOOK FOR SOME
LEGACY ITEMS.
THINGS WE CHIMPK WE CAN
ACHIEVE, BECAUSE THEY REALLY
WANT TO FORM A GOVERNMENT AND
TRY TO GET THEM INTO SOME
AGREEMENT.
THERE WERE MAJOR DEBATES
WITHIN THE PARTY, BECAUSE
YOU'LL REMEMBER, THERE WAS A
MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN 75, '77,
AND 85.
THREE OF THE LAST FOUR HAD
TURNED INTO MINORITIES.
THE MAJOR WAY OF DEALING WITH
THAT IN ONTARIO HAD BEEN ISSUE
BY ISSUE.
THAT IS CERTAINLY THE LEWIS
KLAN WITHIN THE NDP AND THE A
LOT OF LABOUR WANTED TO HOLD
THE CONSERVATIVES IN POWER.
I THINK IT WAS SAFE TO SAY
OTHERS IN THE PARTY PREVAILED.

Steve says JANET, LET ME PUT
THOSE THEORIES TO YOU TO SEE
IF THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES
EXIST TODAY.
FOR AN EXAMPLE, CONSERVATIVE
LEAD GOVERNMENT PROPPED UP BY
THE BLOC DE QUEBECOIS.
PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS IS WHAT
WE HEAR FROM SEAN.
ISSUES IN COMMON FROM DAVE
COOK.
DO THOSE TWO THINGS EXIST
FEDERALLY TODAY?

The caption changes to "Janet Ecker. Former P.C. Cabinet Minister." Janet is in her forties, with short blond hair. She’s wearing a black blazer over a red sweater, a silver necklace, glasses and a brooch.

Janet says I THINK THE PERSONALITIES
AND ISSUES ARE VERY MUCH PART
OF WHAT CAN DRIVE WHETHER WILL
BE AN AGREEMENT OR NOT.
AND THE WHOLE TENOR AND VENUE.
YOU COULD SEE STEPHEN HARPER
TRYING TO REACH OUT TO JACK
LAYTON IN THE DEBATE.
SAYING WELL, JACK WE AGREE ON
THIS AND THAT.
AT LEAST WE KNOW WHERE YOU
COME FROM.

Steve says COULD YOU IMAGINE
THAT?

Janet says THE VOTERS ARE SO CRANKY
RIGHT NOW.
I'M NOT PREDICTING ANYTHING
YET.
BECAUSE THEY'RE MAD AT
EVERYBODY, EVEN WHEN THEY SAY
THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR YOU.
I THINK WHAT ALSO IS
INTERESTING, IS THE BLOC, THE
KEY THING I THINK FOR THE BLOC
IS GOING TO BE ON THE
FINANCIAL SIDE.
FIX THE FISCAL IMBALANCE AND
GIVE US TAX POINTS.
CHANGE THE EQUALIZATION
FORMULA.
AND THE INTERESTING CHALLENGE
THERE IS WHAT WOULD STEPHEN
HARPER DO WITH ONTARIO?
IF HE GETS A BIG CHUNK OF
SEATS IN ONTARIO, IT LOOKS
LIKE THAT'S WHERE HE'S GOING
TO GET A BIG CHUNK OF THEM.
HOW MUCH ROOM WILL HE HAVE TO
DO A SPECIAL DEAL WITH QUEBEC?
IT COULD COME AT THE EXPENSE OF
ONTARIO.

Steve says YOU WERE THERE IN
'85 AS WELL WORKING IN THE
MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND GIVE
ADVICE HOW MUCH THE
CONSERVATIVES SHOULD GIVE UP
TO THE THIRD PARTY, IT GET ITS
SUPPORT.
HOW MUCH CAN STEPHEN HARPER
GIVE UP OF WHAT HE PLANS TO DO,
IN ORDER TO ENLIST THE SUPPORT
OF THE B.Q.?

Janet says I THINK THAT IS THE BIG
TEST.
HE HAS MOVED IN THE VIEW OF
THE CORE MUCH MORE TO THE
CENTRE THAN SOME FELT
COMFORTABLE WITH.
I THINK HE WILL HAVE A
LIMITATION HOW MUCH OF A DEAL
HE CAN DO WITH THE BLOC OR THE
NDP.
I THINK IT DEPENDS ON THE
NUMBERS.
AN ISSUE BY ISSUE RELATIONSHIP,
I THINK MIGHT BE A LITTLE
BETTER AND WHETHER THEY ALL
THINK THEY WILL BE IN ANOTHER
ELECTION IN SIX MONTHS, A YEAR
OR TWO YEARS.
WHAT WORKED IN '77.
WE HAD BEEN TO THE PEOPLE IN
75.
WE WENT BACK IN '77 AND GAVE A
HOUSE ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME.
EVERYONE SETTLED DOWN AND SAID
I GUESS WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE
THIS WORK.
SO I THINK THAT PSYCHOLOGICAL
ENVIRONMENT IS GOING TO BE
REALLY IMPORTANT.

Steve says LET ME LOOK AT THE
FLIP SIDE.
WHAT IF MISTER MARTIN COMES
SECOND, BUT A CLOSE SECOND,
KIND OF LIKE IN 1985 WHERE
DAVID PETERSON CAME IN SECOND,
BUT A CLOSE SECOND.
DOES PAUL MARTIN HAVE THE
RIGHT TO CONTINUE ON AS PRIME
MINISTER?

Sean says ABSOLUTELY.
THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED
IN 1925, WHERE MISTER KING WAS AN
INCUMBENT PRIME MINISTER AND
CAME BACK AFTER AN ELECTION
WITH ABOUT 15 FEWER SEATS THAN
MISTER MEEHAN AND EXERCISED HIS
LEGAL RIGHT TO MEET PARLIAMENT
AND CARRIED ON FOR A NUMBER OF
MONTHS.
IN THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES,
MISTER MARTIN WOULD BE ENTITLED
JUST AS MISTER MILLER DID IN
ONTARIO.
FRANK MILLER, CAME OUT OF THE
ELECTION FOUR SEATS AHEAD OF
THE LIBERALS, WHO WERE THEN
NEGOTIATING WITH THE NDP FOR
THE CORE THAT YOU MENTIONED
FRANK MILLER MET PARLIAMENT IN
JUNE OF 1985.
IT WAS ONLY AFTER HIS
GOVERNMENT WAS DEFEATED ON A
STRAIGHT UP AND DOWN VOTE OF
NONCONFIDENCE, THAT THE REST
OF IT TOOK PLACE.
THE ANSWER IS YES, MISTER MARTIN,
IF THOSE WERE THE
CIRCUMSTANCES, WOULD HAVE THE
RIGHT TO MEET PARLIAMENT.
NOW OBVIOUSLY HE WOULD HAVE,
AS MISTER KING DID IN 1925, HAVE
SOME REASON TO BELIEVE THAT HE
COULD COMMAND A MAJORITY IN
THE HOUSE.
MISTER KING COULD DO THAT.
IN 1925 THE MINORITY PARTY WAS
THE PROGRESSIVE PARTY THE
MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY WAS
FREE TRADE AND PROTECTION.
THE THIRD PARTY WAS MORE
INCLINED TO THE LIBERAL THAN
THE CONSERVATIVE VIEW.
WHAT UPSET THE APPLE CART
EIGHT MONTHS LATER WAS THE
FAMOUS CUSTOMS SCANDAL, WHICH
IN FACT, MAY BRING BACK A
MEMORY OR TWO.

Steve laughs.

Dave says IT MADE IT EASY TO LOOK AT
EITHER OPTION.
YES, THE TORIES GOT THE
MAJORITY SEATS.
YOUR PARTY, THE LIBERALS GOT
THE POPULAR VOTE.
WHICH SORT OF WAS A SPLIT
DECISION ON ELECTION DAY.
I WOULD CERTAINLY THINK THAT
THE ONLY WAY THAT -- IF MARTIN
COMES CLOSE, LET'S BE
REALISTIC, THE NDP, IF THEY
ARE A PLAYER IN THIS COULD NOT
REALISTICALLY IN MY VIEW SIT
DOWN AND NEGOTIATE AN
AGREEMENT WITH MISTER HARPER.
IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LOOK AT
DAY-TO-DAY, BUT LABOUR GROUPS,
WOMENS GROUPS, ENVIRONMENTAL
GROUPS THAT THE NDP IS TRYING
UNDER JACK LAYTON TO TRY TO
REACH OUT TO, WOULD HOWL AT
ANY KIND OF A WRITTEN
AGREEMENT THAT WOULD GIVE
CREDIBILITY TO A HARPER
GOVERNMENT TO MOVE ON FROM A
MINORITY TO THE NEXT ELECTION
WHICH COULD VERY WELL BE A
MAJORITY.
WHEN YOU PROVIDE SOME
STABILITY -- LET'S LOOK AT
WHAT HAPPENED TO MISTER PETERSON
FROMMEP '85 TO '87.
THE NDP HAS TO HAVE ITS EYE ON
TO THE FUTURE.

Sean says IT IS A VERY IMPORTANT
POINT.
IF YOU ARE THE -- IF YOU ARE
THE GOVERNMENT PARTY IN A
MINORITY SITUATION, WITH WHOM
YOU MAKE A RELATIONSHIP.
ON WHAT TERMS AND CONDITIONS.
OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME
BECOMES A VERY IMPORTANT
MATTER AS DAVE COOK HAS
RIGHTLY SAID FOR THE NEXT
ELECTION WHICH IN MINORITY
PARLIAMENT COULD BE SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.
THE SECOND POINT I WANT TO
MAKE IS A REMINDER TO OUR
AUDIENCE AND THE CITIZENRY OF
CANADA, UNOUR SYSTEM OF
GOVERNMENT, THE VOTER GETS TO
CHOOSE A PARLIAMENT AND
PARLIAMENT GETS TO CHOOSE A
GOVERNMENT.
AND THAT'S NOT ALWAYS A
FOREGONE CONCLUSION.

Steve says THAT IS AN
INTERESTING DISTINCTION.
WE DON'T ELECT A GOVERNMENT,
DO WE?

Sean says PARLIAMENT WILL DETERMINE
WHO THE GOVERNMENT IS.
AND THE FORMER GOVERNMENT HAS
THE RIGHT TO MEET PARLIAMENT
AFTER THE ELECTION.
ASSUMING IT CAN ACTUALLY AWIN
THE DAY AND CARRY SOME PUBLIC
BUSINESS.
BUT -- MINORITIY GOVERNMENTS
REMIND US THAT -- IN THE
BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM
OF GOVERNMENT, THE CITIZEN,
THE VOTER GETS TO ELECT A
PARLIAMENT, BUT PARLIAMENT
CHOOSES THE GOVERNMENT.

Steve says JANET, LET ME PUSH
YOU TO SEE HOW DO YOU THINK
THIS WOULD WORK.
YOU HAVE TALKED ALREADY FROM
'77 TO '81 THE CONSERVATIVES
UNDAVIS STAYED IN POWER BILL,
BY BILL.
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A LONG-STAND
AG AGREEMENT.
IN 1985 THE LIBERALS STAYED IN
POWER THANKS TO THE NDP, WHERE
THEY ASSIGNED A CORD AND A
LIST OF ITEMS AND A TWO-YEAR
AGREEMENT THERE WOULD BE NO
ELECTIONS.
HOW DO YOU THINK IT WILL TURN
OUT THIS TIME?

Janet laughs and says TALK ABOUT PREDICTING THE
WEATHER.
I DON'T KNOW ACTUALLY.
I'M NERVOUS ABOUT -- I DON'T
THINK I WOULD ADVISE STEVEN TO
DO A WRITTEN DEAL.
I THINK THE PARTY JUST WENT
THROUGH THAT WITH PETER
MacKAY.
THEY WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE
ABOUT.
THAT I THINK THE NDP WILL BE
SENSITIVE ABOUT DOING A SIGNED
DEAL.
I THINK IF YOU PUT IT DOWN ON
PAPER LIKE THAT, SOMEONE IS
GOING TO HAVE TO GIVE UP
SOMETHING MAJOR TO GET THE
SUPPORT OF THE OTHER PARTY.

Steve says ISSUE BY ISSUE MAY
BE THE WAY TO GO.

Janet continues AGAIN, IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE DIE MAMIC.
THAT PSYCHOLOGICAL DYNAMIC IS
SO IMPORTANT FOR WHAT IS ABLE
TO COME OUT OF THIS.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER WHAT
PREMIER McGUINTY IS THINKING
ABOUT THIS RESULT.
YOU GO BACK TO HISTORY THIS
MAY PROVE A BENEFIT FOR THE
McGUINTY LIBERALS HERE IN
ONTARIO.
USUALLY WHEN THERE'S A
CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT IN
QUEEN'S PARK.
THEY WANT TO KEEP A LIBERAL
GOVERNMENT IN ONTARIO.
THIS MAY BE SOMETHING THAT
SAVES HIS BACON IN THE NEXT
ELECTION.

Sean says JANET MAKE A VERY GOOD
POINT.
LET'S GO TO THE ONTARIO RESULT
IN 1975.
THERE'S ANOTHER ISSUE HIGHLY
RELEVANT TO WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN
OTTAWA IN TEN DAY'S TIME.
IN ONTARIO, IN 1975,
WHEN THAT ELECTION BEGAN, THE
INCUMBENT PREMIER, THE
WELL-KNOWN MISTER WILLIAM G. DAVIS
WAS AN EMBATTLED INCUMBENT WHO
DID NOT LOOK HE WOULD SURVIVE.
BOB NIXON AND THE LIBERALS
LOOKED LIKE THEY WOULD WIN.
45 DAYS LATER MISTER DAVIS
SURVIVED, BUT MISTER NIXON AND
HIS NEW LIBERAL CAUCUS,
INCLUDING LONG HAIRED
CHARACTERS LIKE COLNWAY, WE NOT
ONLY DIDN'T WIN, WE CAME IN
THIRD.

Janet asks YOU KNOW WHY THOUGH?

Sean replies THERE'S A BUNCH OF REASONS.
MY POINT IN TELLING THAT STORY
IN UNDERSTANDING THE MINORITY
GOVERNMENT.
THE BIG CONSIDERATION WHERE
WOULD THE LIBERALS -- THE
PARTY EXPECTED TO WIN, NOT
ONLY DIDN'T WIN, BUT CAME IN
THEY ARE.
MISTER LEWIS RAN A STRONG
CAMPAIGN AND CAME IN SECOND.
ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I MIGHT
HAVE FOR OTTAWA THE MORNING
AFTER JUNE 28.
WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE
RUNNER-UP PARTY?
WHO COMES SECOND?
WHERE ARE THEY RELATIVE TO
WHERE THEY WERE EXPECTED TO
BE?
THE CHARACTER OF THAT MINORITY
PARLIAMENT MIGHT BE
FUNDAMENTALLY DEFINED BY THE
NATURE, STATUS AND
PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITION OF THE
RUNNER-UP PARTY.

Janet says THIS IS WHAT STARTED TO
HAPPEN WITH NIXON.
THEY STARTED TALKING ABOUT
BEING THE GOVERNMENT AND THERE
WAS -- WE'RE GOING TO WIN
KIND OF THING.
VOTERS WENT WAIT A MINUTE.
I THINK STEPHEN HARPER, WHILE
ON ONE HAND HE IS STREET
SHOWING GREAT CONFIDENCE
SAYING I HAVE A TRANSITION
TEAM IN PLACE.
BY TALKING ABOUT THE GREAT
MAJORITY.
THEY HAVE A THING IN THEIR
HEAD A MINORITY GOVERNMENT IS
A GOOD THING.
OF COURSE, IT IS TOUGH TO VOTE
FOR IT.
MIGHT CAUSE A FEW VOTERS TO
SAY WAIT A MINUTE, I DON'T
She air quotes and says QUOTE TRUST OR FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH
THE MAN WITH THE BIG MAJORITY.

Steve says PERHAPS MISTER HARPER
IS SAYING THAT BECAUSE HE
DOESN'T WANT PEOPLE THINKING
HIS BACON DEPENDS ON THE
SEPARATIST BLOC DE QUEBECOIS?

Dave says I THINK THAT IS PART OF IT.
I THINK IT IS HARDER TO SEE
HOW A CONSERVATIVE MINORITY
GOVERNMENT CAN SURVIVE OR EVEN
BE PUT IN PLACE.
THE PRESSURE, IF THE LIBERALS
COME ANYWHERE CLOSE AT ALL TO
KEEP -- WE HAVE NEVER HAD THE
DIFFERENCE IN IDEOLOGIES THAT
WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THIS
FEDERAL ELECTION.
THERE IS GOING TO BE A GREAT
DEAL OF PRESSURE FROM
PROGRESSIVE GROUPS TO DO
WHATEVER YOU CAN TO KEEP
HARPER OUT.
I THINK HIS WAY OF ASSURING THAT
HE MIGHT BUILT AN AGENDA, WE NEED
A MAJORITY.

Sean says GOING IN THE LAST TEN DAYS
OF NATIONAL CAMPAIGN WE HAVE
SOMETHING ELSE VERY UNUSUAL.
NEVER IN POSTCONFEDERATION
CANADA HAVE WE HEADED IN
ELECTION DAY WHEN IT APPEARED
THE BALANCE OF POWER IN A NEW
NATIONAL PARLIAMENT MIGHT BE A
LARGE BLOC OF SUCCESSIONISTS
FROM QUEBEC.
I'M VERY INTERESTED TO SEE HOW
THAT DYNAMIC PLAYS ITSELF OUT
IN THE LAST TEN DAYS OF THE
CAMPAIGN.

Steve says TELL OUR VIEWERS
WHAT OPTIONS THE GOVERNOR
GENERAL HAS?
LET'S SAY MISTER HARPER WINS THE
GREATEST NUMBER OF SEATS
BUT MARTIN IS A
CLOSE SECOND.
MARTIN GOES TO THE GOVERNOR
GENERAL AND PRESUMABLY ASKS
TWO THINGS. HOW DOES THE
GOVERNOR GENERAL PLAY IT OUT
THE SCENARIO?

Sean says PRESUMABLY,
MISTER MARTIN WOULD DECIDE TO
MEET PARLIAMENT.
I THINK THE BRITISH PRECEDENCE
ARE VERY CLEAR.
HE WOULD HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO
DO SO.

Steve says CAN THE GOVERNOR
GENERAL SAY I'M GIVING FIRST
PLACE GUY A CHANCE?

Sean says I THINK THERE ARE ALL KINDS
OF PRECEDENCE.
THE BEST EXAMPLE I CAN THINK
OF IS 1925, PRECISELY, IN FACT
IN THAT CASE, MISTER MEEHAN AND
THE CONSERVATIVES WERE THE
DYNAMIC REALITY.
THAT THEY WENT FROM THIRD TO
STRONG FIRST.
MISTER KING DROPPED OUT OF FIRST
AND CAME SECOND.
HE WAS 15 SEATS BEHIND
MISTER MEEHAN HE COULD AND DID
ARGUE THAT HE COULD CARRY ON,
BECAUSE THE BALANCE OF POWER,
THE WESTERN PROGRESSIVE PARTY
ON THE SUBJECT OF TRADE
WAS CLOSER TO HIM THAN
MISTER MEEHAN, AND ON THAT BASIS
HE GOVERNED FOR TEN MONTHS.

Janet says IT’S LONGER THAN 30 SECONDS.

Dave and Sean laugh.

Steve says YOU CAN COUNT,
Pointing to Sean, he continues HE CAN’T. BUT THE
SYSTEM IS NOT BAD.
HIS HISTORY IS NOT
BAD.
THANKS FOR COMING IN AND
HELPING US WITH THAT SUBJECT.
THAT'S THE LATEST ON THE
FEDERAL POLITICAL SCENE.
THERE HAVE BEEN DEVELOPMENTS
ON THE PROVINCIAL SCENE.
THE ONTARIO CONSERVATIVES HAVE
CONFIRMED THEY WILL HOLD A
CONVENTION TO REPLACE PARTY
LEADER ERNIE EVES ON SEPTEMBER
18 IN TORONTO.
WE’VE GIVEN THE WEEK OFF
TO OUR FRIEND ROBERT
FISHER BUT HIS OTHER
HALF IS HERE.
OUR QUEEN PARK BUREAU CHIEF
SUSANNA KELLEY WITH BACK ROOM
411.

(music plays)

A clip captioned "Backroom 411" shows very fast clips of Ernie Eaves and other politicians giving speeches and press conferences. Then, Susanna Kelley and Robert Fisher walk down a long hallway and past a glass-paned door.

The clip ends, and Susanna sits in the studio with Steve.

Steve says OKAY.
SUSANNA, THE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP
CAMPAIGN IS LITERALLY MINUTES
OLD AND ALREADY THERE ARE MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE CAMPAING.
WHAT DO YOU KNOW?

The caption changes to "Susanna Kelley. Queen’s Park Bureau Chief."
Susanna is in her forties, with short blond hair in a Bob and bangs. She’s wearing a pink tailored suit and earrings.

Susanna says VERY MAJOR CHANGES
AS A MATTER OF FACT.
FIRST OF ALL, THE
CAMPAIGN MANAGER HAS BEEN
REPLACED.
I'M TOLD THAT THE PREVIOUS ONE,
WHO WASN'T THERE FOR VERY LONG
TO BEGIN WITH DECIDED THAT HE
HAD TO LEAVE BECAUSE HIS
DECISIONS WEREN'T BEING
LISTENED TO.
HE WASN'T BEING ABLE TO MAKE
THE DECISIONS HE WANTED TO.
SO HE HAS BEEN REPLACED.
ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING
THINGS IS WHO'S BACK?

Steve says WHO IS BACK?

Susanna says THE WASINS, FORMERLY KNOWN
AS THE WHIZ KIDS.

Steve says AND THE WHIZ KIDS ARE?

Susanna says JAIMY WATTS,
DEBBY HAUTLONG AND
ANOTHER FAMILIAR FACE
RON MacLACKIN.

Steve says ALL MAJOR PLAYERS IN
MIKE HARRIS'S GOVERNMENT?

Susanna says ABSOLUTELY.
SOME PEOPLE ARE SURPRISED
THEY ARE BACK BECAUSE
MANY OF THEM WERE
QUITE DISGRACED WHEN IT WAS
REVEALED THAT THEY WERE
RECEIVING MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
IN CONTRACTS AT ONTARIO HYDRO
AND OTHER PLACES. SO, THERE WAS THE
GRASSROOTS WERE FURIOUS ABOUT
IT.
A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SURPRISED
THAT THEY'RE BACK.

Steve says SO, IF THE ORIGINAL
CAMPAIGN MANAGER IS GONE
AND THE WHIZ KIDS, NOW YOU
CALL THEM THE WAS KIDS ARE
BACK IN,
DO WE KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING
IN PARTICULAR?

Susanna says DEB HUTTON IS PROBABLY
GOING TO TAKE OVER
COMMUNICATIONS, AS A MATTER OF
FACT, I HEAR SHE LEAD A
COMMUNICATIONS TELEPHONE
CONFERENCE LAST WEEK, BUT I
THINK THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE
HAVE BEEN SHOVED ASIDE BY THIS
I'M TOLD.
VERY SENIOR PEOPLE, WHO WORKED
FOR FLAHERTY FOR A LONG TIME
IN HIS FIRST LEADERSHIP BID
HAVE BEEN SHOVED RIGHT OUT.
I THINK SOME ARE LEAVING TO GO
TO OTHER CAMPAIGNS.
THERE'S GOING TO BE A BILL
HOLE.

Steve says THERE'S AN ANGLE YOU
UNEARTHED RELATED TO THE
JEWISH COMMUNITY AND WHAT ROLE
IT MAY OR MAY NOT BE PLAYING
IN THE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP
CONVENTION.

Susanna says IT IS HAVING A LOT
OF INFLUENCE.
MISTER FLAHERTY'S TEAM IS
COGNIZANT ON MAKING SURE THERE
IS AN ADVANCE ADVANCED POLL
THAT JEWISH PEOPLE COULD VOTE
IN, BECAUSE THE SEPTEMBER 18TH
LEADERSHIP VOTE FALLS RIGHT IN
ROBBER SHANNA.
THEY WERE VERY, VERY CONCERNED
ABOUT THIS -- ROSH SHANNA.
THEY GOT INTO A BIT OF A HART
BALL AND JOHN BAIRD TOLD
PEOPLE IF THEY DIDN'T GET THE
ADVANCED POLL DONE THE WAY
THEY WANTED TO, HE WOULD
PUBLICALLY COME OUT AND
CRITICIZE THE PARTY.
HE WAS ACTUALLY TOLD QUITE
SOME TIME AGO THAT THEY WOULD
GET IT.
ON THE EVE OF THE EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE MEETING, WHERE THE
LEADERSHIP DATE WAS GOING TO
BE SET.
MISTER FLAHERTY SENT A LETTER
REMINDING THEM THAT HE WANTED
THIS.
EMP SORT OF WONDERS WHY DID
YOU BOTHER SENDING THE LETTER,
BECAUSE YOU AND YOUR CAMPAIGN
HAD BEEN TOLD DON'T WORRY
THERE IS AN ADVANCED POLL.
THERE WAS SOME SUSPICION IT
WAS SENT, JUST TO MAKE IT
APPEAR HE GOT A BIG WIN.

Steve says FLAHERTY HAS REASON
TO CARE, BECAUSE HE SUSPECTS
THE JEWISH COMMUNITY WILL
SUPPORT HIM SIGNIFICANTLY?

Susanna says YES, BECAUSE… THIS IS A VERY
IMPORTANT CONSTITUENCY TO THEM
BECAUSE OF THE PRIVATESCHOOL
TAX CREDIT MISTER FLAHERTY
BROUGHT IN.
THERE WAS A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR
THAT IN THE JEWISH COMMUNITY.

Steve says THE POLL COMING OUT
INVOLVING JOHN TORY?

Susanna says I HEAR IT WILL BE FAVOURABLE
TO MISTER TORY.
AND I THINK IT WILL BE IN
CHRISTINNA BLIZZARD'S COLUMN
IN THE "TORONTO SUN." I THINK
IT IS PART OF THE JOHN
LASINGER ROLLOUT.
IF YOU RECALL, WE DID PREDICT
THERE BE A POLL--

Steve says WE HAVE SEEN THIS
MOVIE BEFORE.

Susanna says IT HAS DONE BETTER
THIS TIME.
I THINK IT IS DONE BY A
DIFFERENT POLLING COMPANY IT
WILL APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE
CREDIBLE.

Steve says ONE MORE STORY.
THAT IS HAVING TO DO WITH THE
CONTROVERSY IN THE 905 RIDING
OF PICKERING, AJAX. THERE IS AN
EFFORT TO PROTECT AGRICULTURAL
LAND OR MAYBE NOT.
TAKE US THROUGH THIS.

Susanna says WELL,
THERE IS SOMETHING
CALLED THE AGRICULTURAL
PRESERVE LAND.
A LOT OF IT IS OWNED BY
FARMERS, BUT THERE IS A GREAT
DEAL OF INTEREST BY SOME
DEVELOPERS AND BUILDERS TO
BUILD THERE.
IT WAS -- THERE WAS A
MINISTERIAL ZONING ORDER PUT
ON IT BY A CONSERVATIVE
GOVERNMENT IT WOULD BE
PROTECTED IN PERPETUITY.
MISTER ARTHUR IS THE MPP
FOR THE AREA.

Steve says
WHO DEFEATED OUR OWN JANET
ECKER.

She continues WHO DEFEATED OUR OWN JANET
ECKER, IS IN FAVOUR OF OPENING
UP PARTS OF IT FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
SO HE HAS BEEN FIGHTING FOR
THIS FOR QUITE A LONG TIME.
AND --

Steve says I THINK WHILE HE WAS
MAYOR OF PICKERING.

Susanna says THERE'S BEEN A
GROWTH MANAGEMENT STUDY DONE
FOR THE CITY, HOWEVER, IT WAS
BAY PAID FOR BY DEVELOPERS AND
BUILDERS, SURPRISE, SURPRISE
IT RECOMMENDS OPENING UP THE
AG PRESERVE.
I WAS IN THE GREEN PENALTY
COMMITTEE HEARINGS LAST WEEK.

Steve says WHAT'S THAT?

Susanna says THE LIBERAL
GOVERNMENT HAS DECIDED TO PUT
IN PLACE A GREEN BELT ACROSS
THE GTA.
IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE LIKE THE SMART
GROWTH CENTRAL ZONE TO PROTECT
ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE
LANDS, BUT IN FACT IT IS MUCH
SMALLER THAN WHAT THE TORIES
WERE GOING TO DO AND IN
COMMITTEE MARILYN CHURLEY
TRIED TO MOVE A MOTION TO MAKE
IT AS BIG AS THE TORIES WERE
GOING TO PROTECT AND THE
LIBERALS DEFEATED IT.

Steve says THE TORIES LOOK MORE
GREEN THAN THE LIBERALS DO.

She laughs and continues THEY CERTAINLY DO.

FURTHERMORE, MISTER ARTHUR HAS
TRIED TO MOVE AN AMENDMENT IN
THE COMMITTEE THAT WOULD
EXEMPT THE AGRICULTURAL LANDS
FROM THIS PROTECTION AND
ANOTHER WAY HE WAS TRYING TO
GET THAT AGRICULTUREAL LANDS
OPEN.
I TALKED TO PEOPLE IN THE
PREMIER'S OFFICE.
I SAID, ARE YOU AWARE
MISTER ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOING
THIS? TWO SAID WE DON'T WANT TO
TALK TO YOU.

Steve says TWO PEOPLE IN THE
PREMIER’S OFFICE SAID…

She says ONE SAID, GO
TALK TO MISTER GARRINSON.

Steve says GARRINSON,
THE MUNICIPAL
AFFAIRS MINISTER?

Susanna says YES. ANOTHER SAID TALK
TO OUR PR PEOPLE. I JUST WANT
TO KNOW IF YOU ARE AWARE
THAT HE IS DOING THIS.
A THIRD ONE SAID, WELL, I'M
NOT SURPRISED.
She laughs and continues WHEN I SAID TO HIM, CAN YOU
GIVE ME A GUARANTEE, THAT YOU
WILL, AS YOU PROMISED IN YOUR
CAMPAIGN PROTECT THIS LAND
AND PERPETUITY?
THEY SAID, WELL, IT DEPENDS.
I SAID ON WHAT?
THEY SAID, WHAT THE GREEN BELT TASK
FORCE RECOMMENDS OR WHAT
THE -- THE DAVID CAPLAND'S
INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE
RECOMMENDS LATER.
WELL I ALSO FOUND OUT THAT
IN THE GREEN BELT TASK FORCE,
GUESS WHAT'S BEEN SENT TO
EVERY MEMBER OF THE TASK
FORCE THIS WEEK?

Steve says TELL US.

She says THE GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLAN
DONE FOR THE CITY OF PICKERING,
AND THE DEVELOPERS AND
BUILDERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP
AT THE PUBLIC CONSULTATIONS.

Steve says IN THE LAST MINUTE.
CLEARLY ONE BACKBENCHER OFF
SIDE FROM THE OFFICIAL PARTY
POSITION.
NUMBER TWO, IS THERE
CONTROVERSY IN PICKERING?
IS THERE A GROUP THAT DOES NOT
WANT THIS LAND DEVELOPED?

Susanna says ABSOLUTELY.
IT HAS BEEN A MAJOR ELECTION
ISSUE OUT THERE.
SPEAKING OF ELECTIONS I DID
LOOK INTO MISTER ARTHUR'S
CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS OVER A
THIRD OF HIS CONTRIBUTIONS
WERE FROM DEVELOPERS OR
BUILDERS WHO HAVE AN INTEREST
IN DEVELOPING THAT PRESERVE,
INCLUDING 23 CONTRIBUTIONS OF
1,000 DOLLARS EACH FROM NUMBERED
COMPANIES AND COMPANYS RELATED
FROM ONE ADDRESS AT 27 BUGGY
LANE, WHICH IS A GOLF COURSE
THAT'S OWNED BY ONE OF THE
BUILDERS.
SO, MISTER ARTHUR, I ASKED HIM
ABOUT THIS.
HE SAID I DON'T SEE A CONFLICT
OF INTEREST.
HE'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO
PRESS ON THIS.

Steve says WE SHALL KEEP
WATCHING.
SUSANNA KELLEY THANKS FOR THE
411.

Susanna says PLEASURE.

Steve says THAT'S OUR PROGRAMME
FOR THIS WEEK.
I’M STEVE PAIKIN.
UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY.
THANK YOU.

Music plays and the end credits roll.

Queen's Park Bureau Chief, Susanna Kelley.

Producer, Erica Balch.

Director, Michael Smith.

A production of TVOntario. Copyright 2004, The Ontario Educational Communications Authority.

Watch: Minority Report