Transcript: Show #66 | May 19, 1996

(music plays)

The opening sequence rolls.
In animation, the title "Fourth Reading" spins against a red background.
Then, snippets from the current episode play.

Steve says THIS WEEK,
GAMBLING ON VLTs.

Now, a clip shows people gambling in slot machines.

Another clip shows, Ernie Eves speaking at Parliament. He wears a dark suit, white shirt and blue tie.

He says THE ONTARIO LOTTERY
CORPORATION WILL DEVELOP A
PLAN TO INTRODUCE A LIMITED
NUMBER OF VIDEO LOTTERY
TERMINALS AT SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PROVINCE.

A man in his forties says THESE ARE EXTREMELY
ADDICTIVE BECAUSE THEY
PROVIDE INSTANT
GRATIFICATION, WHICH FITS
SQUARELY INTO THE PROFILE
OF THE COMPULSIVE GAMBLER.

Now, different slot machines appear on screen.

Steve says PICKING THE
WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE
GOVERNMENT'S
GAME OF CHANCE.

(music plays)

Steve and five guests sit around a table in the shape of a number 4.

Steve is in his early thirties, clean-shaven, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a light gray blazer over a dark blue shirt.

He says REMEMBER IN THE OLD DAYS
WHEN EVEN BUYING AN IRISH
SWEEPSTAKES TICKET
WAS AGAINST THE LAW?
MY, OH MY, HOW THINGS HAVE
CHANGED IN GREY OLD ONTARIO.
GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYBODY.
I'M STEVE PAIKIN.
NICE TO HAVE YOU ABOARD
FOR ANOTHER EDITION OF
4th READING.
THE ONTARIO GOVERNMENT HAS
CAUGHT THE GAMBLING BUG
BIG TIME.
AND PARTY STRIPE DOESN'T
SEEM TO MATTER AT ALL.
AFTER ALL, IT WAS THE NDP
WHICH GAVE US THE CASINO IN
WINDSOR, AND NOW IT'S THE
SO-CALLED CONSERVATIVES
WHO ARE, IF YOU'LL FORGIVE
THE PUN, UPPING THE ANTE.
HERE COME THE VLTs.

[clicking]

A clip shows a room full of VLTs. Then, images of a casino appear on screen.

Steve says IT'S ONLY BEEN RECENTLY
THAT LOTTERIES AND SUNDAY
SHOPPING AND CASINOS
HAVE ALL BECOME PART OF
ONTARIO'S CULTURE.
AND NOW, THE NEWEST EDITION
TO THE GAMBLING CRAZE,
VLTs, VIDEO
LOTTERY TERMINALS.

Now, a clip shows Ernie Eves speaking at parliament. He wears a dark suit, a striped shirt with a white collar and a dotted blue tie.

A caption on screen reads "Ernie Eves, Minister of Finance."

He says WE BELIEVE THAT VLTs, IF
IMPLEMENTED WITHIN TIGHT,
REGULATORY CONTROLS,
AND IN LIMITED ACCESS
ENVIRONMENTS, CAN MEET A
LEGITIMATE ENTERTAINMENT
DEMAND AND PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT STIMULUS TO THE
HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY.

Steve says VLTs ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERATE ABOUT $460 MILLION
A YEAR FOR THE PROVINCE'S
COFFERS AND GIVE THE
HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY
A BIG BOOST.

Now, a clip shows a man in his late thirties in a bar. He wears round glasses, a black suit, blue shirt and patterned tie.

A caption on screen reads "Paul Oliver, Ontario Restaurant Association."

He says WE'VE SEEN VERY POSITIVE
IMPACTS IN THE EIGHT OTHER
PROVINCES THAT HAVE ALREADY
LEGALIZED AND INTRODUCED
VIDEO LOTTERY TERMINALS.
AND IT'S BEEN A COMBINATION
OF NEW REVENUE FOR THE
HOSPITALITY OPERATOR,
ADDITIONAL SALES, FOOD AND
BEVERAGE, AND JOB CREATION
FOR THE INDUSTRY.

Now, a clip shows the façade of and Anglican Diocesan Centre.

Steve says THE TORIES SAY THEY
WILL EARMARK ABOUT 100
MILLION DOLLARS FOR CHARITIES, AND
9 MILLION DOLLARS FOR GAMBLING
TREATMENT PROGRAMS.
BUT SOME CHARITABLE
ORGANIZATIONS, SUCH AS THE
ANGLICAN CHURCH OF CANADA,
ARE REFUSING TO ACCEPT
MONEY FROM VLTs.

Now, a man in his forties comes out of a church. He wears a gray blazer, white shirt and black tie.

A caption on screen reads "Rev, Colin Johnson, Anglican Church of Canada."

He says ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT
GAMBLING IS THAT IT REALLY
APPEALS TO PEOPLE'S SENSE
OF GREED, WANTING TO GET
SOMETHING FOR NOTHING.
AND WE FEEL THAT CHARITIES
AND SOCIAL SERVICES OUGHT TO
BE FUNDED, NOT THROUGH CHANCE,
BUT THROUGH SOUND, LONG-TERM
ECONOMIC SOLUTIONS TO WHICH
EVERYBODY CONTRIBUTES.

Another clip shows a man in his mid-thirties reading at his desk. He wears glasses, a white shirt and patterned blue tie.

Steve says OTHER CRITICS OF
THE GOVERNMENT'S PLAN TO
INTRODUCE VIDEO GAMBLING
SAY IT COULD LEAD TO MORE
PROBLEMS FOR
COMPULSIVE GAMBLERS.

A caption on screen reads "Morris Behrmann, CDN. Foundation on compulsive gambling."

He says THESE ARE EXTREMELY
ADDICTIVE BECAUSE THEY
PROVIDE INSTANT
GRATIFICATION, WHICH FITS
SQUARELY INTO THE PROFILE
OF THE COMPULSIVE GAMBLER.
IT'S NOT LIKE A LOTTERY
WHERE YOU PAY A DOLLAR NOW,
WAIT FOR A MONTH TO SEE
IF THAT TICKET IS
DRAWN OUT OF A HAT.
HERE, WITH A VLT, WHICH IS
EVEN FASTER THAN A SLOT
MACHINE, WITHIN THE SPACE
OF 1.5 SECONDS, YOU CAN GO
THROUGH A COMPLETE CYCLE, SO YOU
CAN LOSE MONEY VERY QUICKLY.

The clips end.

Back in the studio, Steve says OUR SUBJECT TODAY, SHOULD
ONTARIO BE GETTING INTO THE
VLT BUSINESS?
AND WE HAVE TWO GUESTS ON
OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE ISSUE.
MARSHALL POLLOCK IS FORMER
HEAD OF THE ONTARIO
LOTTERY CORPORATION.
HE'S NOW BACKING A MAJOR
PRIVATE INITIATIVE TO BRING
VLTs INTO THE MARKETPLACE.

Marshall is in his fifties, with grayish short hair. He wears a black blazer, striped gray shirt and a patterned black tie.

Steve continues AND JIM BRADLEY IS HERE.
Mr. BRADLEY IS A 19-YEAR
VETERAN OF THE LEGISLATURE,
FORMER CABINET MINISTER IN
DAVID PETERSON'S GOVERNMENT.
HE IS THE LIBERAL MEMBER
FOR St. CATHARINES.
WELCOME TO BOTH OF YOU.

Jim is in his mid-forties with short light brown hair. He wears rounded glasses, a dark blue blazer, light blue shirts and patterned blue tie.

Steve says GLAD YOU COULD BE HERE.

They both say GLAD TO BE HERE.

Steve continues YOU KNOW OUR
GANG OVER HERE.
HUGH MACKENZIE WITH THE
STEEL WORKERS,

Hugh is in his late forties, clean-shaven, with receding brown hair. He's wearing rounded glasses, a black suit, white shirt, and patterned tie.

Steve continues RICK MAHONEY,
THANKS FOR COMING
IN FROM OTTAWA.
HE'S OUR LIBERAL GUY.

Rick is in his fifties, clean-shaven, with short gray hair. He wears a dark blue blazer, light blue shirt and light brown tie.

Steve says AND JANE PEPINO,
TORY ACTIVIST.

Jane is in her forties, with short gray hair. She's wearing a black blazer over a white blouse.

Steve says OKAY, MAKE THE CASE
FOR ME, Mr. POLLOCK.
WHY DO WE NEED THESE THINGS?
WHY DO WE WANT THESE THINGS?

A caption on screen reads "Marshall Pollock, Ontario Video Lottery Corporation."

He says WELL, IT'S NOT A QUESTION
OF WHETHER WE WANT THEM
OR NOT, IT'S THE
PEOPLE WANT THEM.
IT'S FUN, IT'S
ENTERTAINMENT.
IT'S AN ACTIVITY THAT THEY
PARTAKE IN IN A BAR OR
RESTAURANT, ALONG
WITH A DRINK.
IT'S A SOCIAL ACTIVITY.
IT'S A VERY POPULAR FORM OF
ACTIVITY, AND PEOPLE HANDLE
IT PRETTY WELL.
84 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE IN
ONTARIO GAMBLE, SOME KIND
OF ACTIVITY, AND
THEY DO IT VERY WELL.
AND ONLY A FEW ARE
BOTHERED BY PROBLEMS.

Steve says Mr. BRADLEY, WHAT'S
NOT TO LIKE ABOUT THAT?

A caption on screen reads "Jim Bradley, Liberal MPP, St. Catharines."
Jim says FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS
THE MOST INSIDIOUS AND
ADDICTIVE FORM OF GAMBLING
THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT
FORWARD IN THIS PROVINCE
OR OTHER PROVINCES.
AND SECOND, IT PREYS UPON
THE MOST DESPERATE PEOPLE
IN OUR SOCIETY, THE
MOST VULNERABLE PEOPLE.
THOSE WHO SEE THIS AS THEIR
ONLY CHANCE OF BEING ABLE
TO GET AHEAD.
YOU'RE NOT GOING TO SEE
THE HEADS OF CORPORATIONS
PLAYING THESE
VIDEO TERMINALS.
YOU'RE NOT GOING TO SEE
PEOPLE WHO ALREADY HAVE
MONEY PLAYING THEM.
YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT
OF YOUNG PEOPLE WHO ARE
ADDICTED TO THEM BECAUSE
THEY ARE COMPUTER-LIKE
BECAUSE OF THAT
INSTANT GRATIFICATION.
SOME PEOPLE HAVE REFERRED TO
IT AS THE CRACK COCAINE OF
GAMBLING SIMPLY BECAUSE
IT IS THAT INSTANT HIT,
THE INSTANT GRATIFICATION.
AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO
HAVE A TREMENDOUS AFFECT
ON THE SOCIAL FABRIC OF
THIS PROVINCE, AS IT HAS
ON OTHER PROVINCES.

Steve says AS IT HAS IN
OTHER PROVINCES.
HAS THAT, IN FACT, BEEN
THE EXPERIENCE IN OTHER
PROVINCES, DO
YOU KNOW THAT?

Marshall says NO, IT HASN'T BEEN.
AND I WOULD TAKE EXCEPTION
TO WHAT Mr. BRADLEY HAS TO
SAY ABOUT WHETHER IT'S THE
MOST ADDICTIVE FORM OF GAMBLING.
FIRST OF ALL, PEOPLE AREN'T
GOING TO WIN A LOT OF MONEY
ON THIS ACTIVITY.
THE MAXIMUM PRIZE
YOU CAN WIN IS $500.
SO PEOPLE ARE NOT
SEEKING A LOT OF MONEY.
THEY'RE PLAYING IT.
IT'S ACTIVE.
IT'S A FORMAT THAT'S
ALREADY IN EXISTENCE
IN THE WINDSOR CASINO.
THERE ARE 2,000 OF THESE
DEVICES IN THE WINDSOR CASINO.
AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
ANYWHERE THAT SUGGESTS THESE
ARE MORE ADDICTIVE THAN ANY
OTHER FORM OF GAMBLING.

Steve says WE'VE GOT GAMBLING KIND
OF... YOU'RE A GOOD PERSON TO
ASK ABOUT THIS BECAUSE YOUR
PARTY ACTUALLY DID NOT UP
THE ANTE IN TERMS
OF GAMBLING.
WE DIDN'T GET
CASINOS FROM YOU.
YOU DIDN'T GO INTO THE
LOTTERY BUSINESS MUCH MORE
DRAMATICALLY THAN YOUR
PREDECESSORS, AND YOU
CERTAINLY DIDN'T
BRING IN VLTs.
SO THIS IS HERE.
WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL?
PEOPLE ARE DOING
IT ALREADY ANYWAY.

Jim says THE BIG DEAL IS, AND THE
TREASURER, Mr. EVES, MAKES
THE ARGUMENT THAT SOMEHOW
THERE ARE A LOT OF ILLEGAL
MACHINES OUT THERE,
THEREFORE THE GOVERNMENT
SHOULD LEGALIZE IT AND
GET INTO THE BUSINESS.
I DON'T ACCEPT THAT.
THAT'S LIKE SAYING CRACK
COCAINE, THERE'S A LOT OF
CRACK COCAINE OUT THERE
BEING PURVEYED AROUND THE
PROVINCE, THEREFORE THE
GOVERNMENT SHOULD GET INTO
THE BUSINESS OF
SELLING CRACK COCAINE.
I DON'T AGREE WITH THAT.
I THINK THESE ARE GOING TO
HAVE A VERY DETRIMENTAL
AFFECT, FOR INSTANCE,
ON FAMILIES.
IT'S SO QUICK, IT'S SO
EASY, IT'S SO ALLURING.
AND I THINK IT REPRESENTS
AN ESCALATION OF GAMBLING.
WE ALREADY HAVE CASINOS, WE
ALREADY HAVE LOTTERIES.
THOSE BATTLES HAVE
BEEN FOUGHT AND LOST.
THIS IS A BATTLE I
THINK WE CAN STILL WIN.

Steve says CAN I ASK ANY OF THE
THREE OF YOU, HAVE YOU DONE IT?
WHO'S DONE IT HERE?
HAS ANYBODY DONE IT?
NO?

Marshall says I'VE DONE IT.

Rick says I'VE DONE A
SLOT MACHINE.
A VLT IS LIKE A SLOT
MACHINE, ESSENTIALLY.
A COMPUTERIZED VERSION
OF A SLOT MACHINE.

Marshall says NO, IT'S EXACTLY THE
SAME AS A SLOT MACHINE.
IT'S MADE ON THE SAME
PRODUCTION LINE.

Steve says DO YOU WORRY ABOUT IT?
DID YOU WORRY THAT YOU WERE
ENJOYING IT TOO MUCH AND
MAYBE YOU DIDN'T KNOW
WHEN TO SAY WHEN AND THAT
KIND OF THING?

A caption reads "Richard Mahoney, Former president, Ontario Liberals."

Rick says NO, BECAUSE I'VE BEEN IN A
CASINO SO RARELY IN MY LIFE,
IT'S REALLY NOT AN ISSUE.
AND I, FRANKLY, WOULDN'T
WORRY ABOUT ADULTS DOING IT.
BUT WHEN IT GETS AS
PERVASIVE AS JIM BRADLEY
MENTIONS, AND WHEN IT
BECOMES SOMETHING KIDS CAN
ACCESS, YOU DO GET A BIT OF
A RUSH FROM WATCHING THOSE
NUMBERS COME UP, AND
THINKING MAYBE THIS TIME
IT'S YOUR CHANCE.

Steve says KIDS WOULDN'T BE
ALLOWED TO USE THESE, RIGHT?

Marshall says IT CERTAINLY
SHOULDN'T BE ALLOWED FOR KIDS.
AND THE SUGGESTION FOR
ONTARIO IS CLEARLY NOT AS
IT IS IN THE
OTHER PROVINCES.

Rick says BUT IF IT WAS READILY
AVAILABLE ON STREET CORNERS
AND RESTAURANTS
AND SO FORTH...

Marshall says IT'S ONLY IN LICENSED
PREMISES OR BINGO HALLS
WHERE THERE IS AN AGE
RESTRICTION, OR RACETRACK.

Rick says THERE WON'T BE A
PUSH TO MOVE IT TO MORE...?

Marshall says ABSOLUTELY NOT.
AS A MATTER OF FACT, THEY
TRIED IT IN NOVA SCOTIA
AND THEY RAN INTO SOME
PROBLEMS, AND THEY TOOK
THEM OUT OF THERE.
AND THEY SHOULDN'T BE THERE.

Rick says THE BUSINESS WON'T
ADVOCATE THAT AFTER IT STARTS?

Marshall says ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Jim says AND IN ALBERTA, THEY'RE
RESTRICTING THE NUMBER NOW.
THEY RECOGNIZE, THEY'RE
GETTING A LOT OF PRESSURE
NOW IN ALBERTA.
THEY HAD 8 OR 9,000 OF THEM.
THEY'RE NOW RESTRICTED
THAT BACK TO 6,000.
SO THERE'S A RECOGNITION
IT'S CAUSING REAL PROBLEMS.
IF YOU HAVE THEM IN THE
BARS AND RESTAURANTS,
IT'S SUCH EASY ACCESS.

Steve says THEY MADE 700 MILLION
LAST YEAR IN ALBERTA.

Jim says THAT'S THE ALLURING PART
FOR GOVERNMENT, IS THAT
GOVERNMENT MAKES
EASY MONEY.
SURELY, IF WE HAVE PROGRAMS
THAT ARE WORTH DEFENDING
OUT THERE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO TAX APPROPRIATELY FOR THEM.

Steve looks at Hugh and says IS THAT THE POINT
YOU'RE TRYING TO MAKE?

Hugh says YEAH.

Jim says AND NOT SIMPLY
HAVE EASY MONEY.

Now, a caption appears on screen. It reads "Hugh Mackenzie, Ontario NDP activist."

Hugh says I THINK THERE'S A
GLOSS BEING PUT OVER THE
EXPERIENCE IN
OTHER PROVINCES.
AND, ADMITTEDLY, WE'RE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE MOVIE
ON THESE THINGS.
BUT THERE'S NO... EVERYBODY
ACKNOWLEDGES THAT THERE'S
BEEN HUGE PROBLEMS IN
ALBERTA, HUGE PROBLEMS
IN NOVA SCOTIA.

Marshall says THAT'S NOT TRUE.
NOT TRUE AT ALL.

Hugh says AND THERE'S NO EVIDENCE THAT
REDUCING THE NUMBERS IS
GOING TO MAKE THE
PROBLEMS ANY BETTER.

Marshall says THAT'S JUST NOT
TRUE AT ALL.
THEY'VE NEVER REDUCED
THE NUMBERS IN ALBERTA.
THEY HAD 6,000
MACHINES.
WHAT THEY DID WAS REDUCE THE
NUMBER OF MACHINES, MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF MACHINES PER PLACE
FROM 20 TO TEN IN ORDER TO
ACCOMMODATE THE DEMAND.
THEY ARE SO POPULAR THAT
1100 OTHER RESTAURANTS AND
BARS WANTED THEM, COULDN'T
GET THEM, SO THEY TOOK THEM
OUT OF ONE PLACE AND PUT
THEM IN ANOTHER PLACE.
THE STATISTICS, THE
EVIDENCE, IS ABSOLUTELY
CRYSTAL CLEAR.
THAT PEOPLE DON'T SPEND A
LOT OF TIME OR A LOT OF
MONEY ON THESE THINGS.
A STUDY WAS DONE IN
MANITOBA, AND IT SHOWED
THAT THERE WERE
PEOPLE PLAYED THE
GAME ONCE OR TWICE A WEEK.
PEOPLE ARE EMPLOYED, FULLY
EMPLOYED PEOPLE, AVERAGE AGE
24-40, AND THEY
SPENT 10 DOLLARS AT A TIME.
THAT IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT.

Jim says IT'S UNDERSTANDABLE THAT
THE PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING TO
MAKE MONEY OF THESE
MACHINES ARE GOING TO BE
IN FAVOUR OF THEM.
THOSE WHO HAVE THE
RESTAURANTS AND BARS, AND
THOSE WHO ARE PROMOTING THE
MACHINES, I UNDERSTAND THAT.
BUT I THINK SOCIETY HAS TO
PAY A TREMENDOUS PRICE FOR
THE INTRODUCTION OF THESE
MACHINES ACROSS THE PROVINCE.
I WELL REMEMBER ERNIE EVES
AND MIKE HARRIS MAKING
EXCELLENT CASES, IN FACT,
I STOOD SIDE BY SIDE WITH
THEM, AND OFTEN
COMPLEMENTED THEIR ARGUMENTS
IN THE HOUSE WHEN THEY
WERE MAKING THE ARGUMENTS
AGAINST CASINO GAMBLING.
THIS IS EVEN MORE INSIDIOUS,
THIS IS MORE PERVASIVE.

Steve says LET ME PUT THAT TO
JANE BECAUSE WE KNOW,
HE'S RIGHT, Mr. HARRIS AND
Mr. EVES HAVE NEVER BEEN
BIG FANS OF GAMBLING,
AND THEY SAID DURING THE
ELECTION CAMPAIGN, NO MORE
CASINOS UNLESS A LOCAL
PLEBISCITE IS TAKEN
AND IT FAVOURS CASINOS.
SO WE KNOW THEY'RE NOT
BIG FANS OF GAMBLING.
HOW DO YOU SQUARE THAT?

A caption on screen reads "Jane Pepino, Ontario Tory activist."

Jane says I GUESS WHAT'S HAPPENED IS
THEY'VE HAD TO FACE THE
REALITY THAT UNDER THE NDP
GOVERNMENT CASINOS WERE
PERMITTED, AND EQUALLY,
VLTs ARE OUT THERE.
WE'RE FOOLING OURSELVES IF
WE THINK THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT IS GOING TO, FOR THE
FIRST TIME, UNLOCK THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANYONE IN
THIS PROVINCE TO USE THEM.
THEY ARE THERE.
OFTEN TIMES, THEY'RE NOT
BEING LICENSED, THEY'RE NOT
BEING REGULATED WHERE THEY
ARE, AND THE FACT IS,
WHETHER YOU THINK IT'S A
GOOD THING OR BAD THING,
IT'S HAPPENING.
AND I THINK WHAT THE
GOVERNMENT'S SAYING IS
IT SHOULD BE REGULATED,
IT SHOULD BE LICENSED,
IT SHOULD BE PUT IN A PLACE
WHERE CHILDREN CAN'T GET AT IT.

Steve says BUT IF WE
THINK THEY'RE BAD...

Jane says NOT CONVENIENCE
STORES, FOR EXAMPLE,
LIKE IN THE EAST COAST.

Steve says IF WE'RE WORRIED SECURITY
LAWS ARE BEING BROKEN OR
SOMETHING LIKE THAT, WHY
DON'T WE JUST INCREASE THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AS OPPOSED
TO LEGALIZING THEM?

Jane says YOU KNOW WHAT, THAT, I
THINK, IS A MUG'S GAME.
I JUST DON'T THINK
YOU CAN DO IT.
LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED, EVEN
IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE THEY ALLOWED THEM IN,
RIGHT INTO CONVENIENCE STORES.
AND THEY HAD A TERRIBLE TIME.
IT JUST PROLIFERATED.
IT WENT UNDERGROUND.
I THINK THEY'VE DEALT WITH
IT IN THE MOST APPROPRIATE
WAY THEY POSSIBLY CAN BY
TRYING TO CONTROL THEM IN
NUMBERS AND IN LOCATION.

Steve says Mr. BRADLEY,
LET ME TRY...

Jim says I THINK THE REAL REASON
IS THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS
GOING TO GET MONEY
OUT OF THESE.
THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO
LOSE CONSIDERABLE REVENUE
BECAUSE IT IS BRINGING IN AN
INCOME TAX CUT, AND THAT'S
WHAT IT PROMISED.
IT'S GOING TO LOSE
A LOT OF REVENUE.
IT'S GOING TO HAVE TO BORROW
A LOT OF ADDITIONAL MONEY
TO PAY FOR THAT TAX CUT,
THEREFORE, THIS ALLOWS
THEM TO MAKE UP SOME
OF THAT REVENUE.
AND I'M SURE THAT MUST
HAVE BEEN IN THEIR MIND.
BECAUSE I KNOW Mr. EVES,
EVEN A COUPLE OF WEEKS
BEFORE THE BUDGET WAS
EXPRESSING HIS CONCERN
ABOUT THE SOCIAL
COST OF THESE...

Steve says LET'S FOR THE
RECORD GET THE NUMBER OUT.
THE TAX CUT IS GOING TO
COST 1.1 BILLION THIS YEAR.
THEY EXPECT WHEN VLTs ARE UP
AND RUNNING TO GET HALF THAT.
460 MILLION,
500 MILLION.

Rick says AND MY CONCERN WITH THAT
IS THESE GUYS ARE SORT
OF MAKING UP A LITTLE BIT
AS THEY GO ALONG ON THIS.
THAT'S HALFWAY TO THE TAX
CUT IS THE FIRST POINT.
SECOND POINT IS, IN
OPPOSITION, AS JIM BRADLEY
POINTS OUT, BOTH EVES AND
Mr. HARRIS WERE AGAINST IT.
JUST BEFORE THE ELECTION
CAMPAIGN, I REMEMBER THEM
SAYING WE AREN'T GOING TO GO
TO VLTs UNLESS WE DO A FULL
STUDY ON WHAT THE SOCIAL
IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE.
WE'LL CONSULT WITH ALL THE
STAKE HOLDER GROUPS, AND
WE'LL HAVE A CONSULTATION
OF WHETHER THE REVENUES ARE
GOING TO GO.

Hugh says OOPS, FORGOT THAT.

Rick says FORGOT ALL THOSE THINGS,
AND I THINK, SIMPLY, IN
Mr. EVES' BUDGET, HE ALSO
FAILS TO INDICATE BEYOND
NEXT YEAR, WHERE HIS
REVENUES ARE GOING TO COME,
WHAT HIS FISCAL PLAN IS.
SO I THINK HE'S JUST SORT OF
FINDING 460 MILLION DOLLARS OF
QUICK MONEY TO PAY
FOR HIS TAX CUT.
AND THERE IS NO PLAN HERE.

Jane says I'D JUST LIKE TO COUNTER
THAT BY POINTING OUT THAT
THEY DO ALREADY EXIST, AND
THE FACT IS, IF ANYBODY IS
GOING TO BE GETTING
ANYTHING OUT OF IT,
PRESUMABLY IT SHOULD BE THE
TAXPAYERS GENERALLY, AND
NOT SOMEBODY PUTTING IT
DIRECTLY INTO THEIR POCKET
AS ILLEGAL PROFIT.
SECONDLY, IF IT WAS ONLY
A MATTER OF TRYING TO GET
GAMBLING MONEY TO PAY FOR
OFFSETTING REVENUES, ALL
YOU'D HAVE TO DO IS OPEN
ANOTHER CASINO OR TWO.
THERE'S BEEN A PLEBISCITE
IN NIAGARA FALLS...

Rick says AND ORILLIA.

Jane says AND ORILLIA, AND I
THINK THERE COULD BE AN
AWFUL LOT MORE THAT WOULD
IMMEDIATELY LINE UP IF THE
GOVERNMENT WENT THAT ROUTE.
AND ONE FINAL THING IF I
MAY, AND THAT IS, DON'T
FORGET THIS GOVERNMENT HAS
BEEN CRITICIZED FOR ITS
FAILURE TO BRING IN,
QUOTE, JOB CREATION PROGRAMS, UNQUOTE.
AND I'M AMAZED TO HEAR
YOU PEOPLE SIT HERE AND
CRITICIZE IT BECAUSE IT IS
THE ONE SINGLE BOOST THAT
THE TOURIST INDUSTRY
IS ASKING FOR.

Jim says THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HELP THE TOURIST INDUSTRY
AS SUCH.

Jane says THE ENTERTAINMENT
INDUSTRY, THE
HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY.

Jim says THE ARGUMENT THAT THE CASINO
PEOPLE MADE WAS THAT THAT
WILL LURE PEOPLE TO
WINDSOR OR NIAGARA FALLS.
AND THAT WAS AN ARGUMENT
THEY MADE ON BEHALF OF TOURISM.
IN THIS CASE, IF YOU'RE
GOING TO HAVE THEM ACROSS
THE BARS AND LICENSED
RESTAURANTS TO THE PROVINCE
OF ONTARIO, THAT'S NOT
GOING TO BRING ANY MORE
PEOPLE INTO IT.

Jane says BUT IT'S GOING TO KEEP
THOSE RESTAURANTS OPEN THAT
MIGHT OTHERWISE
HAVE TO CLOSE.

Jim says I REALLY WONDER BECAUSE
THE PEOPLE WILL HAVE LESS
MONEY THEN TO SPEND ON FOOD
OR BEVERAGES, OR WHATEVER
ELSE THEY'RE
SPENDING IT ON.

Marshall says Mr. BRADLEY, YOU
DON'T HAVE TO WONDER, YOU
JUST HAVE TO LOOK AT THE
EXPERIENCE OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA
WHERE HOSPITALITY
BUSINESSES, HOTELS AND
RESTAURANTS, HAVE CREDITED
VLTs WITH SAVING
THEIR INDUSTRY.
THEY'VE ACTUALLY GONE FROM
RECEIVERSHIP AND BANKRUPTCY
INTO A POSITION OF ACTIVE
BUSINESS AND THEY'VE
EMPLOYED, IN MANITOBA FOR
EXAMPLE, THE AVERAGE NUMBER
OF EMPLOYEES FOR VLT
ESTABLISHMENT INCREASED
BY 1.68 PERSONS.

Steve says THERE'S ONE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE...

Rick says WHAT THE STUDIES
SHOW, MARSHALL, I'M SORRY,
THEY COME FROM LOCAL PEOPLE.
LET'S FACE IT.

Marshall says I DON'T SUGGEST IT'S
COMING FROM TOURISTS.
I TELL YOU WHERE MOST OF
IT IS GOING TO COME FROM.
THERE ARE 20,000 ILLEGAL
VLTs IN ONTARIO, THAT THE
POLICE ESTIMATE RAISE ABOUT
A BILLION TO TWO BILLION
DOLLARS A YEAR FOR THE
UNDERGROUND ECONOMY.
IT'S GOING TO COME DIRECTLY
OUT OF UNDERGROUND ECONOMY,
AND THAT'S EVIDENCE FROM
THE CANADIAN ASSOCIATION
OF CHIEFS OF POLICE.

Steve says JUST SO WE
DON'T OVERBLOW THIS,
LET'S LOOK AT
THE COMPARISON.
THE WINDSOR CASINO IS DOING
SO WELL BECAUSE PEOPLE FROM
DETROIT ARE USING IT.
THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
WITH VLTs, PRESUMABLY, RIGHT?

Marshall says THAT'S CORRECT.
THE AVERAGE PERSON IS
GOING TO PLAY THESE GAMES.
AND THEY PLAY 10 DOLLARS AT A
TIME, ONCE OR TWICE A WEEK.
IF YOU TAKE THE WINDSOR
SITUATION, THE INTRODUCTION
OF 2,000 VLTS OR SLOT
MACHINES INTO WINDSOR, HAD
ABSOLUTELY NO IMPACT AT ALL
ON THE PREVALENCE RATE
OF GAMBLING.
THEY JUST RELEASED A STUDY
THAT TOOK PLACE... THEY
STUDIED THE PEOPLE BEFORE
THE CASINO OPENED AND
AFTER THE CASINO OPENED,
AND THEY FOUND THAT THE
PREVALENCE OF COMPULSIVE
GAMBLERS WAS EXACTLY THE
SAME, NOTWITHSTANDING THE
INTRUSION OF ALL THESE
NEW MACHINES.

Jim says THAT'S NOT WHAT THE
PSYCHOLOGISTS, PSYCHIATRISTS
AND OTHERS WHO HAVE STUDIED
THE SYSTEM ARE SAYING.
THESE ARE NOT PEOPLE
IN THE INDUSTRY.
THESE ARE PEOPLE INDEPENDENT
AND OUTSIDE OBSERVING.

Marshall says THIS IS A UNIVERSITY
OF WINDSOR STUDY.

Steve says HERE'S A QUESTION
FOR YOU, THEN, Mr. BRADLEY.
LET'S SAY, IT'S ABOUT
5 PERCENT, RIGHT?
MAYBE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
OF THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE
GAMBLING PROBLEMS?

Marshall says 2 PERCENT.
1 TO 2 PERCENT.

Steve says LET'S FOR ARGUMENT
SAKE SAY THAT'S RIGHT.
IS IT WORTH DENYING 97
PERCENT OF THE POPULATION
THE RIGHT TO DO SOMETHING
IF 3 PERCENT OF THE
POPULATION CAN'T
HANDLE IT?

Jim says THE PROBLEM IS THAT I
BELIEVE IT'S MORE THAN THAT.
YES, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE THE
HARD-CORE ADDICTED PEOPLE
MAY BE APPROXIMATELY 5
PERCENT, BUT THERE ARE
OTHERS WHO ARE
LURED IN, AS WELL.
SURELY THERE ARE MORE
PRODUCTIVE WAYS OF SPENDING
OUR MONEY IN THIS PROVINCE
THAT WILL GENERATE JOBS
IN THIS PROVINCE, THAN
PEOPLE THROWING IT AWAY
ON THESE ELECTRONIC
GAMBLING MACHINES.
AND THAT'S MY
PROBLEM WITH THEM.
AND THEY ARE LOCAL PEOPLE
WHO COME INTO THEM.
OFTEN THE DESPERATE, THE
DISADVANTAGED AND VULNERABLE
PEOPLE WHO ARE COMING IN
TO TRY TO STRIKE IT RICH.

Steve says IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC
OPPORTUNITIES, IS THIS
GOING TO DO ANYTHING
FOR TOURISM?
OR IS THE MONEY THAT PEOPLE
ARE NOW SPENDING, I DON'T
KNOW, GOING TO THE HORSES,
OR GOING TO MOVIES, OR
GOING TO OTHER THINGS
JUST SIMPLY GOING TO BE
TRANSFERRED FROM THOSE
ACTIVITIES INTO VLTs?

Marshall says THE MONEY... IN OTHER
JURISDICTIONS, I CAN ONLY
SPEAK FOR OTHER
JURISDICTIONS BECAUSE
THAT'S THE ONLY EXPERIENCE
THERE IS IN CANADA,
FIVE YEARS IN OTHER PLACES.
THE MONEY COMES FROM
A VARIETY OF SOURCES.
IT COMES PRINCIPALLY
FROM ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES,
ILLEGAL GAMBLING.
IT ALSO COMES FROM A
DISCRETIONARY LEVEL OF
INSTEAD OF BUYING EIGHT
BEERS AT THE BAR, THEY BUY
SIX AND SPEND TWO BEERS
WORTH OF MONEY IN THE VLTs.

Steve says SO THE BREWERS HAVE GOT
TO BE AGAINST THIS THEN?
I WOULD ASSUME SO.

Marshall says THEY AREN'T.
BECAUSE MORE PEOPLE
COME INTO THE PLACE.
IF YOU'VE BEEN IN THE
HOSPITALITY BUSINESS YOU
UNDERSTAND, YOU LOOK INTO
A PLACE AND THERE'S NOBODY
THERE, YOU GO AWAY.
YOU LOOK IN, YOU SEE PEOPLE
HAVING A GOOD TIME, AND
HAVING SOME FUN, AND
NOBODY'S OPPOSED TO FUN,
I DON'T THINK.

Jim says I WOULD THINK PEOPLE
WOULD BE EVEN MORE
VULNERABLE IF THEY'VE BEEN
DRINKING EIGHT BEERS,
AS BEEN MENTIONED.

Rick says I'M MORE VULNERABLE
WHEN I DRINK BEERS.

Jim says BECAUSE THERE ARE PEOPLE
WHOSE JUDGMENTS BECOME
IMPAIRED IN THE BARS ONCE
THEY'VE HAD SEVERAL, AND
THEY ARE MORE INCLINED, I
THINK, TO PLAY THE MACHINES
AT THAT TIME.
I MEAN, I
UNDERSTAND FULLY...

Marshall says THERE'S NO
EVIDENCE OF THAT.

Jim continues Mr. POLLOCK AND HIS
CLIENTS, I UNDERSTAND
WHY THEY'RE IN
FAVOUR OF IT.
I SIMPLY SAY, FOR OUR
SOCIETY'S SAKE, WE SHOULD
BE CALLING A
HALT TO THIS.

Steve says FOR THE RECORD,
JUST BECAUSE HE HAS
A FINANCIAL INTEREST DOESN'T
MEAN HE'S WRONG EITHER.

Jim says I DON'T SAY THAT.
I SAY I UNDERSTAND
HIS POSITION.
AND IF I GUESS WERE THE
PERSON REPRESENTING THOSE
PEOPLE, I WOULD HAVE
TO MAKE THAT ARGUMENT.
I AM TRYING TO REPRESENT
SOCIETY AS A WHOLE, I HOPE,
AS AN ELECTED
REPRESENTATIVE,
AND I SEE GREAT SOCIAL
PROBLEMS WITH THESE.
AND I'VE LISTENED TO MY
CONSERVATIVE FRIENDS IN THE
PAST TALK ABOUT IT.
I WAS CONVINCED BY
THEM IN THOSE DAYS,
I'M STILL CONVINCED.

Steve says SO WOULD YOU SAY NO
VLTs IN St. CATHARINES?
THAT'S YOUR RIDING.

Jim says I CERTAINLY WOULD.

Steve says PROHIBIT?
NO VLTs IN YOUR RIDING?

Jim says I WOULD.
NO VLTs IN MY RIDING.

Marshall says I RESPECT Mr.
BRADLEY'S VIEW.
AND IT'S A STRONGLY HELD
VIEW THAT 10-12 PERCENT
OF THE POPULATION HAVE
MORALLY OPPOSED TO GAMBLING.
AND I RESPECT THAT.
AND I THINK THE MAJORITY
OUGHT TO RESPECT IT AS
WELL, AND NOT BE
IN THEIR FACE.
MOST OF THE RESTRICTION ON
VLTs ARE GOING TO BE IN BARS
OR RACETRACKS OR LICENSED
PREMISES OR BINGO HALLS
WHERE MOST OF THE PEOPLE
WHO ARE OPPOSED TO GAMBLING
NEVER GO.
SO IT'S GOING TO BE, AS FAR AS
THEY'RE CONCERNED, INVISIBLE.

Steve says LET ME TRY
A QUESTION TO HUGH.
BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW
IF YOU'RE IN FAVOUR
OR AGAINST THESE YET?

Hugh says I'M OPPOSED.

Steve says YOU'RE OPPOSED?
BUT YOU WERE FOR CASINOS?

Hugh says AND I WAS EMBARRASSED BY
THE FACT THE NDP GOVERNMENT
BROUGHT IN CASINOS,
PERSONALLY.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
BAFFLES ME ABOUT THE
ARGUMENTS THAT ARE MADE BY
PEOPLE IN THE INDUSTRY, AND
THIS ARGUMENT IS MADE EVERY
TIME OPPORTUNITIES FOR
GAMBLING ARE EXPANDED IN
THE PUBLIC SECTOR, IS THAT
THE ARGUMENT IS ALWAYS MADE
THAT THIS IS GOING TO SUCK
ALL KINDS OF ACTIVITY OUT OF
THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY.
WHERE'S THE
EVIDENCE FOR THAT?
WHERE'S THE
EVIDENCE FOR IT?
I'VE NEVER SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE FOR IT.
I DON'T THINK YOU
CAN PRODUCE IT.

Marshall says I CAN PRODUCE
LOTS OF EVIDENCE.
THERE IS LOTS
OF EVIDENCE.
CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF
CHIEFS OF POLICE ORGANIZED
CRIME COMMITTEE HAVE SAID
THAT FOR THE LAST THREE
YEARS, THAT IT DIVERTS
MONEY OUT OF CRIMINAL
ACTIVITIES THAT...

Hugh says WHERE IS THEIR
EVIDENCE FROM?

Steve says THAT'S TRUE, BUT ON
THE OTHER HAND, THE COPS
ALWAYS SAY THEY'RE
NOT IN FAVOUR OF THIS.
THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT WHAT
IT'S GOING TO DO TO KIDS.

Jim says AND OUR SOCIETY WILL
PAY AN AWFUL PRICE FOR THIS
IN THE LONG RUN.
AN AWFUL PRICE FOR THE
INTRODUCTION OF THESE
MACHINES, AND THE GOVERNMENT
SANCTIONING OF THESE MACHINES.
IF THEY ARE A PROBLEM IN THE
PROVINCE, THEN THEY SHOULD
BE PROSECUTED IF THERE'S
LAWS BEING BROKEN
IN THIS PROVINCE.
IT'S AS SIMPLE AS THAT.

Steve says Mr. POLLOCK, TAKE
THE LAST 30 SECONDS.

Marshall says THEY ARE NOT A PROBLEM
IN THE PROVINCE.
PEOPLE WANT TO DO IT.
THEY DO IT ON A MODEST BASIS,
10 DOLLARS A WEEK AT THE MAXIMUM.
AND PEOPLE ENJOY IT AND THEY
HAVE A GOOD TIME DOING IT.
THAT'S WHY THEY ARE FUN.
AND THAT'S WHY THEY ARE
WORKING WELL IN EIGHT OTHER
PROVINCES AND IN PARTS
OF THE UNITED STATES.

Steve says WE THANK MARSHALL
POLLOCK AND JIM BRADLEY FOR
COMING IN AND DISCUSSING
WITH US TODAY.
APPRECIATE YOUR TIME.

Now, Steve looks at the camera and says OKAY, IN OUR EFFORTS TO GET
YOU SOME OF THE BUZZ FROM
THE HALLWAYS OF QUEEN'S
PARK THAT YOU DON'T HEAR ON
THE LOCAL NEWS, IT'S TIME
NOW FOR A SEGMENT WE CALL
THE LATEST WORD.
TWO TOPICS OF NOTE THIS
WEEK, WHAT DO PEOPLE THINK
OF THE TORIES'
FIRST BUDGET?
AND WITHIN A WEEK, THE
FIRST REFERENDUM ON THIS
GOVERNMENT, A BY-ELECTION
IN THE TORONTO RIDING OF
YORK SOUTH.
HERE ARE JIM COYLE OF
THE OTTAWA CITIZEN, AND
FREELANCE JOURNALIST,
PAULINE JOHNSON, WITH
THE LATEST WORD.

Now, a clip shows Steve talking with Jim and Pauline. They sit outdoors.

Steve says I THOUGHT THIS BUDGET
WAS A BIT OF A SURPRISE.
YES, THE TAX CUTS WERE
THERE, BUT THERE WAS ALSO A
LOT MORE MONEY FOR CHILD
CARE, A LOT MORE MONEY FOR
HEALTHCARE, AND FOR
GOODNESS SAKES, EVEN THE
FILM INDUSTRY
GOT A TAX BREAK.
ARE THESE THE NEW
TOUCHY FEELY TORIES?
WHAT DO WE THINK, JIM?

Jim is in his late thirties, clean-shaven and with short brown hair. He wears a blue blazer, light blue shirt and striped blue tie.

A caption on screen reads "Jim Coyle, Ottawa Citizen."

Jim says I THINK IT WAS A FABULOUS
EXERCISE IN MEDIA MANAGEMENT
AND MESSAGE
MANAGEMENT FOR THEM.
THEY HAD THE TAX CUT AS THE
CENTERPIECE, OBVIOUSLY, BUT
THEY KIND OF SUGAR-COATED IT
WITH THE THINGS YOU MENTIONED.
AND I THOUGHT THAT WAS THE
BIG MESSAGE OUT OF IT.
I THINK THEY FEAR SOME OF
THE CRITICISM ABOUT THE
HUMAN COST OF THIS
IS STARTING TO BITE.
AND THAT'S WHY THERE WAS THIS
COLOSSAL KIDDIE OVERKILL, TOO.
THERE WAS KIDDIE ART ON THE
COVER, AND THIS BIZARRE
CHELSEA AND SAMANTHA FUND
THAT WAS SO COMPLETELY OUT
OF CHARACTER FOR SOMEONE
LIKE ERNIE EVES WHO IS NOT
THE MOST SOFT AND CUDDLY
GUY IN THE PLACE.
AND THIS WAS MONEY THE KIDS
HAD CONTRIBUTED TOWARDS
DEFICIT REDUCTION.
AND IT TURNED OUT A DAY OR
TWO LATER THAT, IN FACT, IT
WASN'T EXACTLY WHAT THEY
CONTRIBUTED IT TO, THEIR
MOTHER, THEY HAD SEEN A
CLIP ON THE TV OF THE OPSEU
STRIKE, AND THEY WERE
WORRIED ABOUT THE OPSEU
STRIKERS LOSING THEIR JOB.
THEY ESSENTIALLY CONTRIBUTED
TO A STRIKE FUND.
AND I THINK IT'S MASTERFUL
CONSERVATIVE MANIPULATION THAT
THEY MANAGED TO SPIN IT AS THESE
TWO LITTLE NEWT GINGRICHES
OF THE NORTH CONTRIBUTING
TO DEFICIT REDUCTION.

Steve says IT WAS PRETTY
INTERESTING, THOUGH, THAT
THEY'VE SPENT THE PAST NINE
MONTHS OR SO DOING ALL THE
SERIOUS NASTY CUTTING, SO TO
SPEAK, AND NOW THEY HAVE COME
FORWARD WITH... I DON'T KNOW,
WHAT WOULD YOU CALL IT, THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE AGENDA?

Pauline is in her late fifties with long blond hair. She wears a light gray coat over a black blouse.

She says I DON'T KNOW, FIRST OF
ALL, LET'S TAKE UP THIS
THING CONSERVATIVE.
WE'RE NOT DEALING WITH A
CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT,
WE'RE DEALING WITH A REFORM
GOVERNMENT IN WOLF'S CLOTHING.

The caption changes to "Pauline Johnson, freelance journalist."

Pauline continues NOW, LET'S TAKE UP
THE SECOND POINT.
THIS ISN'T THEIR
FIRST BUDGET.
JULY AND NOVEMBER WERE
THEIR FIRST BUDGETS WITHOUT
BACK-UP FIGURES.
AND AS FOR THE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE, I THINK MAYBE JIM'S RIGHT.
THEY ARE DOING
DAMAGE CONTROL.
THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THINGS
LIKE SPENDING 2 MILLION DOLLARS OF
THE TAXPAYERS' MONEY TO SELL
THIS BUDGET AFTERWARDS,
AFTER BUYING THEM OFF WITH
THEIR OWN MONEY IN A TAX CUT.

Steve says WHAT'S THAT FOR?
LIKE NEWSPAPER ADS YOU MEAN?
GOVERNMENTS ALWAYS DO THAT.
THAT'S NOTHING NEW.

Pauline says YES, BUT IF THIS IS SUCH A
GOOD BUDGET, WHY DO YOU NEED
TO DO IT?

Steve says BECAUSE THEY DON'T TRUST
YOU TO PRESENT IT PROPERLY.
THAT'S WHY.

Pauline says OBVIOUSLY NOT.
AND OBVIOUSLY THEY DON'T
WANT PEOPLE BRINGING OUT
FACTS BY THE END OF THEIR
FIVE YEARS THE PROVINCIAL
DEBT WILL HAVE RAISED FROM
WHAT, 98 MILLION TO MAYBE
150 MILLION... BILLION?

Steve says YOU BOTH HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH,
PRESUMABLY, WITH MPPs OVER
THE PAST WEEK, AND ARE
ASKING THEM ABOUT HOW
THIS IS PLAYING IN
PEORIA, SO TO SPEAK.
HOW IS THIS BUDGET
PLAYING IN PEORIA?

Jim says I THINK IT'S
SOLD, IT'S DONE.
IT'S CAUSED NO FUSS OTHER
THAN APPROVAL AND APPLAUSE
FOR THE FACT THEY DID WHAT
THEY SAID THEY WERE GOING
TO DO, MORE OR LESS.
IT'S A COLOSSAL SUCCESS
FROM THEIR POINT OF VIEW.
I THINK THEIR GENIUS WAS
IN SEPARATING THE SPENDING
CUTS THAT CAME BEFORE.
PUTTING AS MUCH TIME AS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THAT AND
THE USER FEES AND PROPERTY
TAX INCREASE THAT ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO FOLLOW.
AND THIS THING
STANDS IN ISOLATION.
IT'S ALMOST AS THOUGH THE
TAX CUT WAS DELIVERED BY
THE TOOTH FAIRY OR
STORK OR SOMETHING.
THEY'VE REDUCED THE KIND OF
CAUSE AND EFFECT IN A LOT
OF PEOPLE'S EYES.

Steve says YOU SENSE A BELIEF
IN THE POPULATION, THOUGH,
THAT THIS IS REALLY
GOING TO WORK?

Pauline says NO, I GET MORE OF THE SENSE,
I THINK JIM'S RIGHT, THEY
DID A MASTERFUL JOB
SEPARATING IT, BUT THE
PUBLIC ARE NOT
THAT EASILY CONNED.
I THINK IN THE END, THE
PUBLIC ARE BASICALLY
HOLDING THEIR BREATH.
IT'S A SORT OF, WELL, YES,
THIS TAX CUT WAS VERY NICE,
BUT LET'S SEE WHAT OUR USER
FEES AMOUNT TO, AND STUFF
FOR USING LIBRARIES
AND INCREASED TAXES,
AND THIS SORT OF THING.

Steve says HOW EFFECTIVELY HAS
THE OPPOSITION OPPOSED THIS?
BECAUSE WE'VE BEEN HEARING,
OBVIOUSLY, IN THE CAMPAIGN
LAST YEAR THIS WAS A NUTTY
TAX CUT, AND EVER SINCE
THE LEGISLATURE CAME
BACK, THE OPPOSITION
PARTIES HAVE BEEN SAYING
THIS TAX CUT IS A BAD IDEA.
NOW WE HAVE THE TAX CUT.
IT'S IN PLACE NOW.
HOW EFFECTIVELY HAVE THEY
AND DO THEY CONTINUE TO
OPPOSE THIS THING?

Jim says THEY HAVEN'T DONE TERRIBLY
WELL, I DON'T THINK.
THEY'VE TRIED TO RAISE THE
HUMAN COST IN WHO'S PAYING
FOR IT, AND IT'S BEEN THE
LEAST ADVANTAGED IN SOCIETY
THAT HAVE PROBABLY
BEEN PAYING FOR IT.
BUT I THINK IT'S A
LONGER TERM PROJECT.
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SEE
WHETHER THE INVESTMENT WILL
OCCUR TO CREATE THE KIND OF
JOBS THE TORIES HAVE PROMISED.
I DON'T THINK THEY'LL COME
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THAT,
AND THERE'S NO DOUBT IT'S
SLOWED THE PACE OF
DEFICIT REDUCTION.
TO MY MIND, IT WAS A BAD
PROMISE, AND WE'RE GOING TO
HAVE TO SEE IF VOTERS DECIDE
WHETHER KEEPING A BAD PROMISE
IS A GOOD THING.

Steve says YOU'VE GOT BOTH
OPPOSITION PARTIES WITH SORT
OF LAME DUCK
LEADERS RIGHT NOW.
LYN MCLEOD IS
ON HER WAY OUT.

Pauline says THAT'S RIGHT.

Steve says BUD WILDMAN FOR THE
NDP IS JUST THE INTERIM GUY.
THEY'RE WAITING
ON A CONVENTION.
I GUESS THIS IS LUCKY FOR
THE GOVERNMENT IN A WAY,
ISN'T IT?

Pauline says OH, IT'S A GIFT,
ISN'T IT, REALLY?
YOU KNOW, I MEAN, IT'LL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW NEXT
YEAR'S BUDGET PLAYS WITH
LEADERS, PARTICULARLY IF
WE'RE FACED WITH SOMETHING
LIKE GERARD KENNEDY AND
PETER KORMOS.

Steve says WELL, ALL RIGHT,
SINCE YOU'VE RAISED THIS,
LET'S GET ON TO YORK SOUTH.
BECAUSE IN LESS THAN A WEEK,
THE YORK SOUTH BY-ELECTION
WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE A
REFERENDUM ON THIS BUDGET OR
ON HOW THIS GOVERNMENT HAS
DONE WILL BE TAKING PLACE
IN MIDTOWN TORONTO.
WHO'S THE ONE TO WATCH?
JIM?

Jim says I GUESS THE BIG SURPRISE IS
THE TORIES HAVE A FIGHTING
CHANCE TO WIN IT.
ROB DAVIS, THE CITY OF YORK
COUNCILLOR THERE, THEY'RE
ALL SORT OF 30-SOMETHING
ENERGETIC, AGGRESSIVE,
AMBITIOUS,
IMPRESSIVE YOUNG MEN.
AND THE SAD THING IS THAT
ANY OF THEM ARE GOING TO LOSE.
GERARD KENNEDY THE LIBERAL,
OR DAVID MILLER THE NDP,
OR ROB DAVIS FOR THE TORIES.

Steve says THEY'RE
ALL GOOD PEOPLE?

Jim says THEY'RE ALL EXCEPTIONAL
CANDIDATES.
I THINK IT'S TOO EARLY,
PROBABLY, IN THE LIFE OF
THIS GOVERNMENT TO DRAW
ANY PROFOUND JUDGMENT OF
A SINGLE BY-ELECTION,
ESPECIALLY ON SOMETHING
THAT'S NOT REALLY AN
EVEN PLAYING FIELD.
IT'S NOT A TORY STRONG SUIT.
IT'S URBAN, IT'S
MULTICULTURAL.

Steve says IT'S BEEN
NDP FOR 50 YEARS.

Jim says YES, AND I THINK THE BIG WAY
TO MEASURE IT IS WHO'S GOT
THE MOST TO LOSE, NOT
WHO'S GOT THE MOST TO WIN.
AND THE NDP DEFINITELY DO.
THIS IS A TOTEM FOR THEM.
DON MCDONALD HELD IT SINCE
'55 UNTIL '82, THEN RAE.
FOR THEM TO LOSE IT WOULD
BE JUST DISPIRITING
IN THE EXTREME.
FOR THE LIBERALS NOT TO GET
THIS STAR, GERARD KENNEDY,
OF THE DAILY BREAD FOOD
BANK INTO THE HOUSE AND
THEN INTO THEIR LEADERSHIP
RACE, WOULD ALSO BE A
DISASTER FOR THEM.
FOR THE TORIES, IF THEY
LOSE, THEY JUST SHRUG.
THEY SAY, THAT'S NOT OUR
TURF ANYWAY, ALTHOUGH I
GATHER THEY'RE WORKING A
LOT HARDER THAN THEY LIKE
TO LET ON BECAUSE THEY LOVE
THE THOUGHT OF HAVING AN
ATTRACTIVE YOUNG BLACK
MAN IN THE CAUCUS.

Steve says THEY CAME SECOND
LAST TIME IN THE ELECTION.

Jim says YEAH, THEY DID.
AND IT'S COMING IN THE WAKE
OF THE TAX CUT, SO WE'LL
SEE HOW POPULAR THAT IS.

Steve says PAULINE,
WHO DO YOU LIKE?

Pauline says I THINK ROB DAVIS
IS GOING TO WIN, IN FACT.

Steve says THE TORY?

Pauline says I UNDERSTAND, IN FACT,
INTERNAL POLLING HAS DAVIS
AHEAD OF THE LIBERAL
CANDIDATE, MOVE MILLER BEHIND.
AND LET'S FACE IT, THIS
GOVERNMENT WANTS TO DO
SOMETHING THE NDP NEVER DID.
THE NDP NEVER WON A
BY-ELECTION DURING THEIR TERM.
THEY WANT TO DO IT, AND SAY
'SEE, NAH, NAH, NAH, NAH'.
THAT SORT OF THING.
AND I THINK THEY STAND A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF IT.

Steve says WE'LL WATCH AND SEE.
THANKS TO BOTH OF YOU.

Jim says THANKS, STEVE.

The clip ends.

Back in the studio, Steve says WELL, BEFORE WE WATCH
AND SEE, WE'VE GOT A FEW
SECONDS LEFT TO GET SOME
PREDICTIONS AROUND THE TABLE.
SO GO AHEAD.
THIS IS AN NDP SEAT.

Hugh says NDP IS
GOING TO WIN IT.
NDP IS GOING
TO WIN IT?
YEAH.
I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE
CLOSE, BUT THE NDP'S
GOING TO WIN IT.

Rick says I HATE TO SAY THIS
TO HUGH BECAUSE I LIKE HUGH,
BUT I THINK IT'S
PROBABLY GOING TO END UP
BEING A TWO-WAY FIGHT
BETWEEN THE TORIES AND LIBERALS.
IT'S IN TIGHT, BUT I THINK
ULTIMATELY THE LOCAL FOLKS
ARE IMPRESSED WITH WHAT A
GUY LIKE GERARD KENNEDY ARE
OFFERING, AND HE WILL
SQUEAK OUT A NARROW VICTORY
OVER THE TORIES.

Steve says AND THE
NDP COMES THIRD?

Rick says YES.

Steve says JANE?

Jane says I AGREE THE NDP
WILL COME THIRD.
AND IT WILL BE DISPIRITING
IN THE EXTREME.
BUT I THINK ROB DAVIS
IS GOING TO TAKE IT.
ROB DAVIS, RATHER.
HE'S GOT VERY DEEP
ROOTS IN THE COMMUNITY.
HE'S WELL-LIKED.
HE'S BEEN A STRONG LEADER,
WORKED HARD FOR THE PEOPLE
OVER THE LAST FOUR OR
FIVE YEARS AS A MUNICIPAL
POLITICIAN.
HE'S WELL, WELL-LIKED.

Steve says WE'LL PLAY THESE PROJECTIONS
BACK NEXT WEEK, OR THE WEEK
AFTER, AND SEE HOW
WELL YOU GUYS DID.
MANY THANKS TO
ALL OF YOU.

Then, he faces the screen and says OKAY, WE ALWAYS APPRECIATE
YOUR COMMENTS ON OUR PROGRAM.
SO WRITE TO US
IF YOU WOULD AT…

A slate reads "Fourth Reading. Box 200, Station Q, Toronto, Ontario. M4T 2T1."

Steve says OR IN CYBER SPACE, YOU CAN
REACH US ON THE INTERNET AT…

A new slate reads "Internet address, fourth_reading@tvo.org."

Steve continues I'M STEVE PAIKIN.
SEE YOU NEXT TIME.

Music plays and the end credits roll, as Steve and the rest continue the conversation.

A production of TVOntario. Copyright 1995, The Ontario Educational Communications Authority.

Watch: Show #66