Transcript: Campaign Wrap | Jun 04, 1995

The opening sequence rolls.

In animation, the words "4th reading" and "Election Watch" swirl against a red slate as pictures of different politicians show.

Steve Paikin sits in the studio with 4 guests. He’s in his late thirties, clean-shaven and with short curly brown hair. He wears black T-shirt under a green gingham blazer.

He says HI, EVERYBODY.
WELCOME TO
4th READING'S
ELECTION WATCH.
I'M STEVE PAIKIN.
THIS IS IT.
THE FINAL STRETCH OF
ONTARIO'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN
AND RIGHT ABOUT NOW PARTY
STRATEGISTS HAVE THEIR
SLEEVES ROLLED UP,
THEIR BROWS FURROWED.
THEY'RE ANALYZING HOW THE
GAME'S BEEN PLAYED SO FAR,
AND PLANNING THE
LAST CRITICAL MOVES.
LATER IN THE PROGRAM, WE'LL
HEAR FROM THREE OF THESE
BACKROOM GURUS.
OUR OWN POLITICAL PUNDITS
ARE HERE AS WELL TO DO
A BIT OF PLAY-BY-PLAY.
THEY'VE GOT LOTS
TO TALK ABOUT.
THE CAMPAIGN IS SUDDENLY
RED HOT AFTER A
LUKEWARM BEGINNING.
MOST OF THE RECENT POLLS OF
COURSE SHOWING THE TORIES
IN THE LEAD.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THE
NUMBERS HAVE AFFECTED THE
CAMPAIGN THIS PAST
WEEK, STARTING WITH
THE CONSERVATIVES.

A caption reads "P.C Conservatives."

A fast clip shows Mike Harris campaigning.

Mike is in his late forties, clean-shaven and with short straight gray hair. He wears off-white belted trousers and a striped short-sleeved shirt.

Steve says FOR MIKE HARRIS, THE NUMBERS
ARE OBVIOUSLY GOOD NEWS.
HE THINKS THE POLLS SHOW HIS
MESSAGE IS GETTING THROUGH.

Mike says AND I THINK THE POLLS
GOING IN WERE VERY SOFT.
WE'RE NOW SEEING A LOT OF
THAT MOMENTUM CHANGING
TO OUR ISSUES.

Steve says SO HARRIS SPENT MOST
OF THE WEEK REINFORCING
THOSE ISSUES.
HE VISITED A SCHOOL IN
SCARBOROUGH TO DISCUSS THE
PROBLEM OF YOUTH CRIME.

Mike says WE ARE GOING TO HAVE
TO PROVIDE ALTERNATIVE
PROGRAMMING IN SCHOOLS,
AND IN SOME CASES STRICT
DISCIPLINE FACILITIES
WILL BE THE ANSWER.

Steve says HARRIS PROPOSED A
FORM OF BOOT CAMP FOR
YOUNG OFFENDERS.
AND LATER IN THE WEEK, HE
SIGNED A PLEDGE TO HOLD A
REFERENDUM BEFORE IMPLEMENTING
ANY NET TAX INCREASES.
AND AS FOR THE CRITICISM
THAT HIS NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP:

Mike says MY OPPONENTS SAY OUR
PLAN DOESN'T ADD UP.
AND I KNOW ECONOMICS
CAN BE DIFFICULT,
BUT THIS IS ARITHMETIC.
TWO PLUS FOUR EQUALS SIX.

The caption changes to "NDP."

Steve says BOB RAE'S TARGET THIS
WEEK WAS, NOT SURPRISINGLY,
MIKE HARRIS.

Bob Rae is in his mid-forties, clean-shaven and with short straight white hair. He wears glasses, a black suit, white shirt and printed tie.

Bob says WE'RE NOT FOOLING
AROUND HERE.
WHAT WE ARE BEING PRESENTED
WITH IS AN AMERICAN STYLE
REPUBLICAN AGENDA.
MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT.

Steve says THE PREMIER VISITED A
CLINIC TO OUTLINE WHAT HE
SAYS THE EFFECTS OF TORY
SPENDING CUTS WOULD BE
ON HEALTH CARE.
RAE TOLD RESIDENTS AT AN
OLD-AGE HOME THAT NOBODY IS
SAFE FROM THE TORY CUTS. AND
THEN WENT TO STRATFORD
FOR ANOTHER ATTACK.

Bob says YOU WOULDN'T CUT OFF CYRANO
DE BERGERAC'S NOSE TO SPITE
HIS FACE.
[laughing]
THAT'S WHAT THE LIBERALS
AND TORIES ARE DOING,
AND I DON'T THINK
IT'S GOING TO WORK.
I THINK THE PEOPLE OF THIS
PROVINCE, I THINK THE PEOPLE
OF STRATFORD KNOW BETTER.

Steve says AND RAE KEPT UP THE
ATTACK ON HARRIS DURING A
LIVE PHONE-IN
EDITION OF STUDIO 2.

Bob says THE HARRIS DEAL IS A BENEFIT
FOR THE RICH, AND IT'S GOING
TO PROVIDE REAL THREATS TO
SERVICES FOR MOST PEOPLE
IN THE PROVINCE.

Steve says RAE SEEMED CONFIDENT
THAT THE TORY LEAD WOULD NOT
HOLD UP 'TIL ELECTION DAY.

Bob says MIKE, PRIDE COMETH BEFORE
ONE BIG FALL, AND THAT'S
WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO
MIKE HARRIS IN THE NEXT WEEK.
YOU MARK MY WORDS.

The caption changes to "Liberals."

Steve says THE LIBERAL CAMPAIGN
TOOK TO THE AIRWAVES IN AN
EFFORT TO HAMMER
HOME ITS MESSAGE.
LYN MCLEOD WAS A GUEST
ON A SERIES OF TALK SHOWS.

The host says PAUL, DO YOU KNOW
WHERE LYNN MCLEOD STANDS
ON PHOTO RADAR NOW?

Paul’s voice says NO, NOT AT ALL.

Another man’s voice says WE HAD A HUNDRED
THOUSAND JOBS LOST IN THE
LAST YEAR OF THE
PEARSON GOVERNMENT.
YOU TOLD US THAT WE HAD
A 25 MILLION DOLLAR SURPLUS.
IN FACT, WE HAD A THREE
BILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT.

Lyn is in her early fifties, with short wavy light brown hair. She wears a black blazer and a printed scarf.

She says WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE
BOTTOM STARTED TO FALL OUT
OF OUR ECONOMY.
THAT WAS EXACTLY THE POINT
AT WHICH THE GOVERNMENT OF
THE DAY, THE NDP GOVERNMENT
OF THE DAY, NEEDED TO START
TO CHANGE COURSE.

Steve says AND THE LIBERALS
STARTING RUNNING A NEW
SERIES OF ADS, ADS THAT TAKE
DIRECT AIM AT HARRIS AND HIS
PROPOSED TAX CUTS.

A slate appears with the caption "The Conservatives and Mike Harris tell you he will cut income tax by an irresponsible and unrealistic 30 percent. He isn’t telling you their plan could threaten your health care."

Steve says AND MCLEOD, LIKE RAE,
SPENT A LOT OF TIME THIS
WEEK OFFERING HER
TAKE ON THE TORY CUTS.
AS FOR EDUCATION:

Lyn says UNDER THE
CONSERVATIVES, THE DOOR
OF THIS UNIVERSITY COULD
WELL HAVE A SIGN ON IT
THAT SAYS ONLY THE
WEALTHY NEED APPLY HERE.

Steve says AND HEALTH CARE.

Lyn says THERE OUGHT TO BE A LABEL ON
THE BALLOT THAT SAYS, WARNING.
A CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT
COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM.

Steve says THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS.
LET'S GET TO IT.
WE WELCOME BACK HUGH
MACKENZIE AND JANE PEPINO
FROM THE NDP AND PC
PERSPECTIVES RESPECTIVELY.

Hugh Mackenzie is in his late forties, clean-shaven and with short receding wavy gray hair. He wears glasses, a gray suit, white shirt an printed tie.

Jane Pepino is in her fifties, with short slightly wavy gray hair. She wears a polka dotted black and white blazer over a white top and a pair of pearl earrings.

Steve says PINCH HITTING TODAY FOR PAT
GOSSAGE, OUR FRIEND JOHN
DUFFY IS BACK, A
LIBERAL STRATEGIST.
THANKS SO MUCH
FOR BEING HERE.

John Duffy is in his thirties, clean-shaven and with short straight light brown hair. He wears glasses, a beige suit, white shirt and printed tie.

Steve says AND WE HAVE ALSO INVITED
TO JOIN US GREG VEZINA.
GREG'S AN AUTHOR, POLITICAL
ANALYST, SOMETIME POLLSTER
AND ONCE UPON A TIME A
CANDIDATE FOR THE GREEN PARTY.
HE'S HERE TO GIVE US HIS
TAKE ON THE RACE SO FAR AND
TELL WHO HE THINKS WILL
BE FIRST PAST THE POST.

Greg Vezina is in his late forties, clean-shaven and with short wavy brown hair. He wears glasses, a blue suit, white shirt and printed tie.

Steve says WELCOME BACK EVERYBODY.
LET'S, WITHOUT FURTHER ADO,
GET SOME NUMBERS TO CHEW ON
TO HELP US SINCE WE'RE LESS
THAN A WEEK AWAY FROM THE
FINAL DAY.
ALLAN, LET'S BRING UP THE
NUMBERS FROM LAST WEEK AND
WE'LL SEE HOW MUCH
THEY'VE MOVED.

A bar graph appears on screen with the caption "Angus Reid-Southam News" The results show 32 percent for the conservatives, 29 percent for the liberals, 17 percent for the NDP and 17 percent were undecided.

Steve says ANGUS REID AND SOUTHAM
BROUGHT OUT NUMBERS LAST
WEEK PROVINCE-WIDE SHOWING
THE TORIES WITH A SLIM LEAD
OVER THE LIBERALS.
THIS WEEKEND -- NOW THIS GETS
A LITTLE COMPLICATED BECAUSE
AS WE SIT HERE TALKING ON
FRIDAY, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT
THE POLLS HAVE COME OUT
WITH ON THE WEEKEND.

Another bar graph shows the results of the latest polls: 40 plus percent for the conservatives, 31 to 35 percent for the liberals and 20 percent for the NDP.

Steve says SOME PEOPLE WILL WATCH US
SUNDAY ON OUR REPEAT AND
THEY'LL KNOW ALREADY, BUT WE
EXPECT ON THE WEEKEND THE
POLLS TO SAY THAT THE PCs
HAVE WIDENED THE LEAD THERE
OVER 40 PERCENT.
THE LIBERALS IN THAT LOW
TO MID 30 RANGE AND THE
NDP STILL IN THIRD
PLACE AT 20 PERCENT.
JOHN DUFFY, LET
ME START WITH YOU.
HOW BAD IS THAT NEWS
FOR THE LIBERALS?

A caption reads "John Duffy. Liberal strategist."

John says THAT'S NOT BAD AT ALL, STEVE.
AND I'LL TELL YOU WHY.
BECAUSE WHAT YOU'VE GOT HERE
IS A RACE THAT IS COMING
DOWN TO TWO PARTIES
THAT ARE IN THIS GAME.
YOU NOTICE THAT THE NDP
HAVEN'T MOVED AT ALL,
DESPITE FURIOUSLY SPENDING
THE ENTIRE WEEK TRYING TO
ARGUE THAT
THEY'RE COMING UP.
THOSE POLLS PUT LIE TO THAT
ARGUMENT AND WHAT THEY SHOW
IS THAT ONTARIANS HAVE A
VERY CLEAR CHOICE THAT
THEY'RE GOING TO BE MAKING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND.
DO THEY WANT A MIKE HARRIS
GOVERNMENT WITH ALL THE
BOOT CAMPS AND THOSE KINDS
OF THINGS THAT IT MEANS,
OR DO THEY NOT WANT IT.
IF THEY DON'T WANT IT,
THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE
LIBERAL AND THAT'S WHAT'S
GOING TO TAKE US OVER THE TOP.

Steve says ARE YOU WORRIED THAT THE
CONSERVATIVES HAVE PEAKED
TOO SOON?

The caption changes to "Jane Pepino. Ontario Tory activist."

Jane says NO.
I THINK IT'S PART
OF JUST A TREND.
I MEAN I DON'T THINK THERE'S
GOING TO BE ANY COMPLACENCY.

Steve says IT'S MADE YOU
THE TARGET THOUGH.
THE UNMISTAKABLE TARGET
FOR THE LAST WEEK.

Jane says IT'S MADE US THE TARGET AND
FRANKLY, I THINK THAT'S
REGRETTABLE FROM THE
PERSPECTIVE OF THE OTHER TWO
PARTIES BECAUSE THE ONLY
THING YOU HEAR OUT OF BOB
RAE'S MOUTH AND OUT OF
LYN MCLEOD'S MOUTH IS
MIKE HARRIS AND TALKING
ABOUT HIS PLAN.
THEY'RE NO LONGER PUTTING
FORWARD THEIR AGENDAS.
THEY'RE NO LONGER PUTTING
FORWARD ANY VISION THAT THEY
MIGHT WANT TO ASK THE PEOPLE
OF THE PROVINCE TO SUPPORT.
AND I THINK FROM THAT
PERSPECTIVE IT'S VERY GOOD NEWS.
I ALSO THINK, FRANKLY,
IT'S DIFFICULT.
ONTARIO'S NOT COMFORTABLE
WITH PEOPLE BEING AS
NEGATIVE AS THESE SORTS OF
CIRCUMSTANCES BRING FAILING
PARTIES TO.

Steve says THE PREMIER WAS ON STUDIO 2
LAST NIGHT SAYING THAT HE
WAS NUMBER ONE IN THE NORTH.
AND HE GAVE NUMBERS.
SOMETHING LIKE 37, 32, 31.
HE SAID HE WAS NUMBER
ONE IN SOUTHWEST.
33, 32, 32 I THINK HE SAID.
AND HE SAID HE WAS
NUMBER TWO IN METRO.

Hugh says YUP.

Steve says HOW CAN ALL OF THAT
BE TRUE AND YET
YOU STILL BE A 20
PERCENT PROVINCE-WIDE?

The caption changes to "Hugh Mackenzie. Former Aide to Bob Rae."

Hugh says WELL, I DON'T THINK WE ARE
AT 20 PERCENT PROVINCE-WIDE
AND I THINK WE'LL FIND
OUT WHAT THE RESULT IS ON
ELECTION DAY OBVIOUSLY.
I THINK THAT WHAT'S GOING
ON AND HAS BEEN GOING ON
BASICALLY SINCE THE MIDDLE
OF THE CAMPAIGN IS THAT
WE'VE SEEN THE PARTY SUPPORT
MOVE CLOSER AND CLOSER TO
THE LEADER SUPPORT NUMBERS.
OUR OWN NUMBERS SHOW
THAT WE'RE GOING UP.
EVERYBODY'S NUMBERS SHOW THAT
THE LIBERALS ARE DROPPING.
IT'S ANYBODY'S GUESS AT THIS
POINT WHERE THE TORIES SIT,
BUT I THINK EVERYBODY AGREES
THAT THEY'RE IN FIRST PLACE.
AND GRANTED, IT'S
UNFORTUNATE TO LOSE THE
POSITION OF BENIGN NEGLECT
THAT MIKE HARRIS' CAMPAIGN
WAS IN FOR THE FIRST FOUR
WEEKS OF THE CAMPAIGN, BUT
THE FACT IS, THAT A LOT
OF MIKE HARRIS' POLICIES
REPRESENT A VERY SERIOUS
THREAT TO A LOT OF THINGS
THAT PEOPLE HOLD DEAR IN
THIS PROVINCE AND IT MAY BE
UNCOMFORTABLE BUT HE IS
GOING TO BE THE TARGET.
HE'S IN FIRST PLACE
AT THE MOMENT.

Steve says GREG, LET ME GET FROM YOU
THE -- I MEAN YOU'RE HERE
TODAY IN PARTICULAR BECAUSE
WE WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT
FOURTH PARTIES ARE THINKING
ABOUT ALL OF THIS, SOME OF
THE SMALLER PARTIES, WHICH
DON'T REALLY SHOW UP IN A
LOT OF THESE SAMPLE SURVEYS.

The caption changes to "Greg Vezina. Author of ‘Democracy, eh?"

Greg says THAT'S BECAUSE THEY
DON'T EVEN MENTION
THEIR NAMES IN THE SURVEYS.
BUT, ANYWAY, YEAH.

Steve says BUT IF THEY MENTIONED
THEIR NAMES, HOW DIFFERENT
WOULD YOU THINK THOSE
NUMBERS WOULD BE?

Greg says WHEN YOU NAME ALL OF THE
REGISTERED PARTIES, THE VOTE
FOR THE SMALLER
PARTIES TRIPLES.
SO I EXPECT THE THIRD PARTY
VOTE TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND
TEN PERCENT.
NOW WE HAVE A RECORD NUMBER
OF CANDIDATES OTHER THAN THE
MAJOR PARTIES THIS TIME.
MIKE HARRIS DID -- AND I SAID
THIS THREE WEEKS AGO, HE DID
CONSOLIDATE THE
VOTE ON THE RIGHT.
HE DID CONSOLIDATE THE VOTE
OF THOSE THAT ARE DISGUSTED
WITH POLITICIANS BY THROWING
OUT DIRECT DEMOCRACY.
THROWING OUT I WILL RESIGN.
HIS NUMBERS HAVE SHOT UP,
I BELIEVE, UNBELIEVABLE.

Steve says IF THAT'S THE CASE,
THEN, I WOULD EXPECT THE
LIBERTARIANS, THE FAMILY
COALITION, THE FREEDOM PARTY
AND THE REFORM ASSOCIATION
ALL TO DO BADLY THIS TIME.

Greg says WELL, THAT'S THE INTERESTING
THING OVER THE LAST TIME.
THE LAST TIME YOU HAD
ROUGHLY FIVE OF THE SEVEN
PERCENT OF THE FRINGE PARTY
VOTE, WHICH THE POLLSTERS
SAID WAS TWO PERCENT -- WAS
RIGHT WING VOTE, AND IT WAS
TORY VOTES, AND THE SPLITS
KILLED THE TORIES IN THE
LAST ELECTION FOR
THAT VERY REASON.
THE REFORM ASSOCIATION IS
SHOWING UP ON OUR INTERNET
POLLS STILL AT ABOUT TWO
PERCENT, BUT THE GREEN PARTY
AND THE SORT OF LEFT MIDDLE
LEFT PARTIES ARE DOING
VERY, VERY WELL.
SO I EXPECT YOU'LL SEE THE
PROTEST VOTE, THE CORE
PROTEST VOTE, WHICH IS ABOUT
35 PERCENT, WILL TO GO THOSE
FRINGE PARTIES, BUT THE
RIGHT WING PROTEST VOTE IS
CLEARLY GOING TO
GO CONSERVATIVE.
IN FACT, WE'VE SEEN A DROP
OF A FULL PERCENTAGE POINT
IN THE REFORM
ASSOCIATION'S VOTE.
NOW THE OTHER THING IS
REFORM ASSOCIATION'S ONLY
RUNNING IN 20 RIDINGS.
SO THEY CAN'T AFFECT
THE OUTCOME, WHEREAS
CONFEDERATION REGIONS OR
FAMILY COALITION RAN IN 50,
60, 70 RIDINGS
AND THEY COULD.
SO I THINK IN FACT THIS TIME
THE SPLITS WILL FAVOUR THE
CONSERVATIVES AND I
DISAGREE, QUITE FRANKLY,
WITH HUGH -- I AGREE WITH
HUGH, ACTUALLY, ON THE
PREMIER'S VOTE.
I THINK THE PREMIER'S VOTE
IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN
THE POLLS SAY, AND QUITE
FRANKLY, I THINK THE
LIBERAL'S VOTE IS LOWER.
I THINK THERE'S A FREEFALL.

Steve says JOHN.

John says WELL, NO, THERE'S
NOT A FREEFALL.
THERE WAS A SLIDE.
THE SLIDE HAS OCCURRED.
THE SLIDE IS OVER.
IN FACT, THE LIBERALS ARE
PICKING UP AND THAT'S WHAT
WE'RE SHOWING AND THAT'S
WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE STREETS.
BUT LET ME TELL
YOU SOMETHING.
LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING
ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON WITH
MIKE HARRIS RIGHT NOW,
AND THIS IS INTERESTING.
YES HE IS THE TARGET.
AND CERTAINLY JANE'S RIGHT
ABOUT NEGATIVITY, WHICH
MAKES ME WONDER WHY THE
HARRIS CAMPAIGN HAS LAUNCHED
THE HEAVIEST PERSONAL ATTACK
ON ANY LEADER IN THIS IN
THEIR NEW ADVERTISEMENT
ABOUT LYN MCLEOD.
THE PROBLEM FOR MIKE HARRIS...

Steve says EXPLAIN ABOUT THAT FOR
THOSE WHO HAVEN'T SEEN IT.

John says THEY'VE PUT OUT A MAJOR
ADVERTISING BUY THAT SHOWS
A CARICATURE OF HER MOVING
BACK AND FORTH ALLEGEDLY ON
ISSUES, AND IT IS THE MOST
DIRECT AND PERSONAL OF ALL
THE ADS THAT ARE OUT THERE.
BUT THE ISSUE FOR HARRIS IS
HE HAS SUCCESSFULLY EXPLOITED
A COUPLE OF WHAT ARE CALLED
WEDGE ISSUES IN PARLANCE.

Steve says WELFARE.
WORKFARE, EMPLOYMENT EQUITY.

John says AND JOB QUOTAS.
THAT'S RIGHT,
JOB QUOTAS.
AND HE'S DONE THAT TO
PEEL AWAY CERTAIN GROUPS
OF THE ELECTORATE.
HE'S DONE A GREAT JOB.
IT GETS YOU TO
A CERTAIN LEVEL.
THE ISSUE FOR MIKE HARRIS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE CAMPAIGN
IS HOW DO YOU GET OVER THE
TOP INTO MAJORITY TERRITORY?
HOW DO YOU GET BEYOND
CERTAIN GROUPS OF PEOPLE?

Steve says HE'S KIND
OF THERE RIGHT NOW.

John says THE QUESTION IS
HOW DO YOU HOLD IT?
HOW DO YOU
CONSOLIDATE IT?

Steve says WHAT'S
THE ANSWER JANE?

Jane says I THINK IT'S JUST
KEEP ON WITH THE MESSAGE.
FOR A YEAR NOW WE'VE BEEN
SAYING THE SAME THINGS, AND
WITH THE GREATEST OF
RESPECT, I DON'T THINK
WHAT'S CAUSED THE SHIFT IN
THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAS BEEN
THE INTRODUCTION
OF WEDGE ISSUES.
I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE
ALIVE TO, AND ARE PAYING
ATTENTION TO, THE
CORE MESSAGES.
WE'VE GOT TO GET OUR
ECONOMIC HOUSE IN ORDER.
WE HAVE TO STIMULATE THE
ECONOMY BY CUTTING TAXES TO
CREATE JOBS.
WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT
FAIRNESS FOR PEOPLE
ECONOMICALLY AND OTHERWISE.

Steve says BUT YOU'LL GRANT THE
WEDGE ISSUES ARE HAVING AN
ENORMOUS EFFECT OUT THERE.

Jane says THEY'RE HAVING -- I THINK
WHAT THEY'RE DOING IS
THEY'RE ENGAGING PEOPLES'
INTEREST AND THEN THEY'RE
STARTING TO LOOK AT THE
WHOLE PACKAGE AND THAT
HASN'T CHANGED AT ALL.
[all talking at once]

Hugh says YOU GUYS HAVE GIVEN
ME MY OPPORTUNITY TO TELL
MY ORGANIZER STORY.
ONE OF OUR SENIOR CAMPAIGN
ORGANIZERS, HE WAS GOING
AROUND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO
AS WE WERE SEEING THE TORY
NUMBERS CREEP UP.
AND HE CAME IN AND HE SAID,
NOBODY OUT THERE IS FINDING
ANY TORIES, BUT BOY ARE
THERE EVER A LOT OF PEOPLE
TALKING ABOUT WELFARE.
BINGO.
THAT'S WHAT'S GOING ON.
THE WEDGE ISSUES I THINK HAVE
BEEN ENORMOUSLY IMPORTANT.

Steve says SO YOU THINK
THESE PEOPLE...

Hugh says BUT I THINK THE
BACKSPLASH FROM THE WEDGE
ISSUES IS WHAT IS CAUSING
MIKE HARRIS' SUPPORT TO ERODE
A LITTLE BIT.

Greg says THAT'S RIGHT.

Hugh says BECAUSE, FRANKLY, I THINK
PEOPLE ARE FINDING THE
IMPLICATIONS OF SOME OF
THAT STUFF VERY OFFENSIVE.

Greg says I THINK LYN MCLEOD
CREATED THE WEDGE -- ONE OF
THE
BIGGEST WEDGE ISSUES IN
THIS WHOLE CAMPAIGN HERSELF.
IT'S CREDIBILITY.
AS LONG AS LYN MCLEOD WAS
IN THUNDER BAY AND NO ONE
KNEW WHO SHE AS AND THEY
GOT HER CONFUSED WITH JEAN
CHRETIEN, SHE DID VERY
WELL IN THE POLLS.
AS SOON AS THE WRIT WAS DROPPED,
SHE WENT ON TELEVISION.
SHE OPENED HER MOUTH AND
THEN SHE SAID, YELL AT YOUR
SPOUSE YOU LOSE YOUR HOUSE.
I KNOW A FEDERAL...

John says WELL, SORRY, SHE
DIDN'T SAY THAT, GREG.

Greg says CAN I FINISH MY STORY?

John says YOU CAN'T JUST SAY
THAT SHE SAID THAT.

Greg says THAT'S WHAT THE
MEDIA REPORTED.
THAT'S WHAT
THE
TORONTO STAR
REPORTED.
THAT'S THE SPIN
THAT GOT OUT THERE.

Steve says THAT WAS
THE HEADLINE,
BUT THAT'S NOT
WHAT SHE SAID.

Greg says WHATEVER.
AS SOON AS IT GOT SAID,
HOWEVER IT GOT SAID, AS SOON
AS THE REPORT HAPPENED,
WHICH IS A FACT...

Steve says BUT OUR PROGRAM, IF I MAY,
IS NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF SORT
OF LEGITIMIZING THINGS THAT
MAY -- NEWSPAPER HEADLINES.
LET'S FIND OUT WHAT
SHE REALLY SAID.

Greg says IT'S WHAT HAPPENED.
WELL...

Steve says WHAT DID
SHE REALLY SAY?

John says WELL, I KNOW SHE
DIDN'T SAY IF YOU SHOUT
AT THE SPOUSE YOU
LOSE YOUR HOUSE.
I MEAN I WASN'T THERE
WHEN IT HAPPENED.
WHAT I DO KNOW IS SHE SAID
THAT THERE ARE SERIOUS
ISSUES CONCERNING VERBAL
AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ABUSE.
I MEAN WE'RE NOT TALKING
ABOUT YELLING OVER THE
TELEVISION SET AND WHO
GETS TO WATCH WHAT.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THINGS
LIKE BLACKMAIL, LIKE THREATS
OF VIOLENCE AND I THINK
TRIVIALIZATION HAS...

Steve says JUST SO WE
GET THAT CONFIRMED.

John says HAS BEEN
TERRIBLE ON THAT.

Greg says THE SPIN WAS IN THE MEDIA,
IN PARTICULAR AMONGST THE
LIBERAL CORE VOTE, AND THE
LIBERAL CORE VOTE IS ETHNIC
IN SOME SENSE, BUT IT'S VERY
LARGE WESTERN EUROPEAN ETHNIC.
THE GREEKS, THE
ITALIANS, ETCETERA.
AND A FEDERAL LIBERAL MP WHO
I KNOW TOLD ME HE GOT MORE
PHONE CALLS WITHIN A WEEK
OF THAT THAN HE HAS ON ANY
ISSUE SINCE 1988.

Steve says WHO TOLD YOU THAT?
WHO TOLD YOU THAT?

Greg says A FEDERAL LIBERAL
MEMBER FROM...

Steve says WHAT'S THE RIDING?

Greg says EAST OF THE DON RIVER.

Steve says EAST OF THE DON.
DOESN'T NARROW
IT DOWN BY MUCH.
HOW MUCH -- I KEEP
HEARING THIS ALL THE TIME
OUT THERE, THAT THE
ELECTORATE IS INCREDIBLY
VOLATILE AND, YOU KNOW, THEY
HAVEN'T MADE UP THEIR MINDS
AND ALL OF THAT.
I FRANKLY DON'T KNOW
HOW TRUE THAT IS.
I MEAN THOSE TORY NUMBERS
LOOK PRETTY SOLID AND I'M...

Jane says AND THEY STARTED
OFF ROCK SOLID.
THAT'S THE THING.
THEY STARTED OFF ROCK SOLID
MORE THAN ANYBODY ELSE.
YOU'LL THINK BACK TO SIX,
EIGHT, TEN WEEKS AGO OR A
YEAR AGO WHEN PEOPLE WERE
SAYING, LYN MCLEOD'S VOTE
IS JUST LIKE DAVID
PETERSON'S WAS IN 1990.
IT'S A MILE WIDE AND
AN INCH DEEP AND WE KNEW...

Steve says YOUR BASE WAS SOLID
BUT YOU PICKED UP A 15 PERCENT
SORT OF VOTE THAT'S
SWITCHABLE RIGHT NOW.

Jane says THAT'S EXACTLY SO, BUT LOOK
WHERE THEY'RE GOING TO GO.
LYN MCLEOD HAS ALSO, YOU
KNOW, WOULD FALL INTO BEING
CRITICIZED BY THE NDP BECAUSE
SHE SAID WELFARE'S BROKEN.
WE'VE GOT TO MAKE
SOME CHANGES.
SHE'S GOT DIFFERENT CHANGES.
WE DON'T THINK THEY'RE
GOING TO BE AS EFFECTIVE.
BUT SHE'S NOT GOING TO LEAVE
THE WELFARE SYSTEM UNTOUCHED
SO AS TO MEET
THE NDP DEMAND.
SO THAT'S NOT GOING TO...
PEOPLE AREN'T GOING TO SHIFT
BACK OVER TO THE GRITS
TO MEET THAT ISSUE.

Hugh says THE WELFARE ISSUE,
FOR ME, SETS OUT THE REAL
METAPHOR OF LYN
MCLEOD'S CAMPAIGN.
THE METAPHOR FOR THE
CAMPAIGN IS WHEN IN THE
DEBATE, LYN MCLEOD WAS
STANDING UP THERE VERY
DUTIFULLY ATTEMPTING TO
EXPLAIN WHAT MANDATORY
OPPORTUNITY MEANT AND WHAT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MANDATORY OPPORTUNITY
AND WORKFARE WAS.
THAT'S THE METAPHOR
FOR THE CAMPAIGN.
IT'S REALLY DIFFICULT
IN THIS PROVINCE TO RUN
SIMULTANEOUSLY ON THE
RIGHT AND ON THE LEFT.
THAT'S WHAT SHE'S BEEN
TRYING TO DO AND NOW SHE'S
PAYING THE PRICE AND I DON'T
AGREE THAT THERE'S A FLOOR
UNDER THE LIBERAL SUPPORT.
I THINK THERE'S A VERY
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE
LIBERALS WILL END UP THIRD.

Steve says JOHN, LAST WORD WITH
YOU ON THIS AND THEN WE'RE
GOING TO SOME TAPE.

John says QUITE SIMPLY, REGARDLESS OF
THE SPIN THAT COMES OUT OF
ANY OF THESE FOLKS,
ONTARIANS HAVE A CHOICE
ON THURSDAY.
I THINK THAT'S CLEAR.
THIS HAS BEEN AN EXCITING
ELECTION WITH SOME
CLEAR CHOICES.
THE CHOICE IS THERE'S
TWO PARTIES IN THE GAME.
ONTARIANS WILL PICK ONE AND
I THINK THEY'LL PROBABLY
PICK THE LIBERAL
PARTY IN THE END.

Steve says WE'LL COME BACK AND CHAT A
LITTLE BIT IN A FEW MOMENTS'
TIME, BUT IN THE MEANTIME,
THE HOTTEST SPOTS IN THIS
ELECTION ARE PROBABLY IN THE
BACK ROOMS OF EACH OF THE
CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS.
FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS, WE
HAVE MET WITH THREE WAR ROOM
VETS TO HEAR HOW
STRATEGY RULES.
AND EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE
GOT TOGETHER AT THE MONTREAL
BISTRO IN DOWNTOWN TORONTO
TO TALK SOME MORE.

A tape rolls. Steve sits at a table with 3 guests.

Steve says OKAY.
AS WE TRY TO DETERMINE
WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING SO
FAR, TRYING TO UNDERSTAND
WHY THE LIBERAL NUMBERS HAVE
COME DOWN, WHY THE TORY
NUMBERS HAVE GONE UP, WHY
THE NDP NUMBERS SEEM TO BE
RATHER FLAT SO FAR, A LOT OF
PEOPLE ARE FOCUSING
ON THE RED BOOK.
WORKED WONDERS FOR CHRETIEN
IN THE LAST ELECTION.
LOOKED LIKE IT WAS GOING
TO DO THE SAME THING FOR
MISSUS MCLEOD THIS TIME
BECAUSE IT WAS SUCH A...
IT WAS A GREAT KICKOFF
BY ALL ACCOUNTS.
HASN'T WORKED SO FAR.
WHY DO YOU SUPPOSE
THAT IS, RICK?

The caption changes to "Richard Mahoney. Liberal Campaign Co-Chair."

Richard is in his mid-forties, clean-shaven and with short wavy gray hair. He wears a black suit, white shirt and printed orange tie.

He says IT'S A COUPLE THINGS.
FIRST OF ALL, AS WE SAID ON
THE SHOW BEFORE, AND IN MANY
SHOWS, WE ALWAYS EXPECTED TO
DROP FIVE TO TEN POINTS IN
THE FIRST WEEK.
ODDLY ENOUGH IN THIS
CAMPAIGN, THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN
UNTIL AFTER THE DEBATE AND
AFTER THE LONG WEEKEND, THAT
THINGS REALLY TIGHTENED UP.
I THINK THAT WHAT HAPPENED
IS NUMBER ONE, WE HAVEN'T
GOT OUR MESSAGE OUT AS
WELL AS WE SHOULD HAVE.
NUMBER TWO, VOTERS ARE
SCEPTICAL AND THEY'RE ANGRY
OUT THERE.

Steve says WHY ARE THEY ANGRY
AT YOU THOUGH?

Richard says THAT'S INTERESTING.
PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE
FEDERAL LIBERAL GOVERNMENT.
PERHAPS BECAUSE, TO PAY A
COMPLIMENT TO PAUL, I THINK
THAT MIKE HARRIS AND THE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES
HAVE RUN A GOOD CAMPAIGN
AND THEY HAVE RUN A VERY
EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN AT
TAPPING INTO THE ANGER,
PARTICULARLY ON THE WELFARE
ISSUE OUT THERE, WHERE
WE BELIEVE OUR WELFARE
POSITION IS OBVIOUSLY MORE
SENSIBLE THAN THE TORY
POSITION, BUT I THINK THAT
VOTERS -- THE TORIES HAVE
SUCCESSFULLY WEDGED AWAY
SOME SUPPORT FROM US BY
TAPPING INTO THAT WELFARE
MESSAGE AND FRANKLY,
PUNISHING PEOPLE ON WELFARE
A LITTLE BIT, OR GIVING
THAT SENSE TO PEOPLE IN THE
SUBURBS, AND THAT WORKED OUT
TO DRIVE SOME SUPPORT AWAY
FROM US.
BUT WE STILL HAVE EIGHT
OR NINE DAYS LEFT TO GO.
ALL POLLS SHOW THIS IS A
NECK AND NECK RACE BETWEEN
THE LIBERALS AND THE
CONSERVATIVES AND WE THINK
THAT ULTIMATELY ON JUNE 8th
VOTERS WILL LOOK FOR A MORE
BALANCED SENSIBLE APPROACH
TO GOVERNMENT THAN
MIKE HARRIS AND THE
TORIES ARE PROPOSING.

Steve says EVERYONE YOU TALK TO SAYS
IT'S A HORSE RACE BETWEEN
THE LIBERALS AND THE TORIES.
EVERYBODY WANTS TO LEAVE
YOU OUT OF THIS THING.
ARE THEY RIGHT TO DO SO?
YOUR NUMBERS HAVEN'T MOVED
MUCH SINCE THE WHOLE
THING STARTED.

The caption changes to "Frances Lankin. N.D.P Campaign Spokesperson."

Frances is in her early forties, with shoulder-length slightly wavy brown hair with bangs. She wears white T-shirt and a striped gray and white jacket.

She says WELL, I THINK IT'S A
DANGEROUS STRATEGY FOR THEM
TO DO SO, AND IN FACT BACK
ROOM I DON'T THINK THAT
THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE DOING.
I DON'T KNOW IF YOU REMEMBER
ON THIS SHOW, BUT I ACTUALLY
AM THE ONE THAT PREDICTED
THE LIBERAL FREEFALL AND
WE'RE SEEING IT HAPPEN NOW.

Steve says YES, YOU DID.
YES, YOU DID.

Frances says AND QUITE FRANKLY...

Steve says BUT A LIBERAL ANALYST
PREDICTED IT, TOO.

Richard says I WAS ON RECORD, AND I THINK
YOU PREDICTED IT AND KEPT
PREDICTING IT AND IT
JUST NEVER HAPPENED.
SO YOU'RE...

Frances says IT IS ACTUALLY A
FREEFALL, THOUGH, AND
THERE'S SOMETHING
IMPORTANT ABOUT THAT
IN TERMS OF THE...

Steve says JUST LET'S
DEFINE THAT.
WHAT DEFINES
A FREEFALL?

Frances says FIRST OF ALL, RAPID,
CONSTANT, NOT PLATEAUING,
NOT STOPPING,
CONTINUING TO SLIDE.
AND YOU KNOW, THE REAL
CHALLENGE THAT I THINK THAT
PARTY HAS IS THAT THEIR
LEADER STILL REMAINS VERY
FAR BEHIND WHERE THE PARTY
SUPPORT IS, EVEN AS IT'S
FALLING, AND I DON'T BELIEVE
ONTARIANS SEE HER AS A
PERSON THAT CAN
BRING THAT BACK.
WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN REALLY
FASCINATING, AS THE
CONSERVATIVE CAMPAIGN HAS
GAINED POPULAR
GROUND, WHICH IT HAS.
NO ONE CAN DENY THAT.
IN FACT, IT'S NOT A HORSE
RACE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
THEY'RE IN THE LEAD.
ALL THE POLLS, INTERNAL
POLLS I'VE SAID
THEY'RE IN THE LEAD.

The caption changes to "Paul Rhodes. P.C Media Advisor."

Paul is in his fifties, with short wavy gray hair and a beard. He wears glasses, a gray suit, gray shirt and printed tie.

Paul says NO, NO, NO, NO, NO.

Steve says THAT'S WHAT
EVERY POLL SAYS, PAUL.

Paul says THIS IS STILL
A HORSE RACE.
THE DIFFERENCE SEPARATING...

Steve says I KNOW YOU WANTED
TO HAVE AN EXPECTATION
BUT THE FACT IS
YOU'RE IN FIRST PLACE.

Paul says IT'S THE MARGIN OF ERROR.
IT'S THE MARGIN OF ERROR.

Steve says BUT YOU'RE IN FIRST
IN EVERYBODY'S POLLING.

Paul says YEAH, WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR.
THE MARGIN OF ERROR

Steve says BEING 3.5 TO 4 PERCENT?

Paul says YEAH.
AND WE WERE WITHIN 3.5
TO 4 IN THE POLLS THAT
HAVE BEEN
PUBLISHED SO FAR.

Frances says POLLS THAT HAVE
BEEN PUBLISHED SO FAR.

Steve says BUT YOUR POLLING, WHICH
HASN'T BEEN PUBLISHED
INDICATES WHAT?

Paul says YEAH, WHAT I'M SAYING IS IS
THAT IT'S STILL A HORSE RACE
AND IT'S STILL WITHIN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR BETWEEN THE
TWO PARTIES.

Richard says PAUL'S RIGHT.
IT IS STILL
A HORSE RACE.
THE TORIES MAY BE A LITTLE
BIT AHEAD RIGHT NOW.
THE ONE THING WE DO KNOW
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THEY'LL
BE UP, WE'LL BE UP.
POLLS WILL SHOW US BEHIND,
THEM AHEAD, THAT WILL HAPPEN.
WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT
THE NDP ARE OUT OF IT.
BOB RAE IS PROBABLY GOING
DOWN TO DEFEAT IN HIS OWN
RIDING TO HAGOOD HARDY.
THERE'S A POLL PUBLISHED IN
THE SAINT CATHARINES HERALD
THAT SHOWED PETER KORMOS DOWN
20 POINTS TO THE LIBERALS.
IF PEOPLE WANTED A CHOICE,
THEY HAVE A CHOICE.
IT'S A CHOICE BETWEEN MIKE
HARRIS AND THE PROGRESSIVE
CONSERVATIVES, AND THE
LIBERALS UNDER LYN MCLEOD.

Frances says OKAY, THIS IS A
STRATEGIC VOTING ARGUMENT
THAT YOU'RE STARTING TO
HEAR FROM THE LIBERALS.

Richard says 20 POINTS BEHIND
ACCORDING TO
THE SUDBURY STAR.

Frances says LET ME JUST RESPOND HERE.

Steve says FLOYD MARVIN'S
20 POINTS BEHIND?

Richard says ACCORDING TO THE
SUDBURY STAR'S POLLS LAST WEEK.

Steve says BEHIND WHO?

Richard says BEHIND THE LIBERALS.
IN ALL THREE SUDBURY SEATS.
THERE ARE SEATS IN THE
PROVINCE WHERE WE ARE IN
HEAD TO HEAD
FIGHTS WITH THEM.
THEY'RE ABOUT 40 SEATS.
AND THERE ARE SEATS IN THE
PROVINCE WHERE WE'RE HEAD TO
HEAD FIGHTS WITH THE TORIES,
WHICH IS ABOUT 80 OR 90 SEATS.
AND THAT'S WHERE -- THAT'S
HOW THE PROVINCE IS GOING
TO ADD UP.
WHAT I'LL ADMIT IN THE SEATS
WHERE WE'RE AGAINST PAUL AND
THE TORIES, WE'RE IN TIGHT.

Steve says FRANCES, GO.

Frances says OKAY.
I MEAN I REALLY SEE THIS AS
THE SPINNING THAT HAS TO
HAPPEN NOW FROM THE LIBERAL
CAMPAIGN AND WHAT THEY'RE
TRYING TO DO IS STOP THE
FREEFALL THAT I WAS
TALKING ABOUT.
WHAT IN FACT THE POLLS
ARE SHOWING US IS THAT IN
CERTAIN PARTS OF THE PROVINCE,
IT'S A THREE-WAY RACE.
THE UNDECIDEDS...
A FOUR-WAY RACE.
THE UNDECIDEDS ARE IN THERE.

Steve says WHAT ARE YOU SHOWING
IN METRO TORONTO?

Frances says IN METRO TORONTO.
YOU WANT IT STRAIGHT HERE?

Steve says TORIES
ARE IN FIRST.

Frances says OUR INTERNAL
POLLING THIS WEEK...

Richard says FINALLY FRANCES
IS GOING TO REVEAL
HER INTERNAL POLLING.

Frances says SHOWS THAT THE TORIES ARE IN
THE LEAD, NEW DEMOCRATS ARE
IN SECOND PLACE AND THE
LIBERALS HAVE JUST FALLEN
INTO THIRD PLACE.

Steve says HAVE YOU GOT SOME NUMBERS
YOU CAN PUT ON THAT?

Richard says LET'S HEAR
THE NUMBERS.

Frances says OKAY.

Paul says THIS'LL BE INTERESTING.

Frances says NUMBERS IN A RANGE
OF 40 OR SO.

Steve says FOR THE TORIES.

Frances says FOR THE TORIES.
JUST LOW 30s FOR THE NDP,
AND BELOW 30 FOR THE
LIBERALS IN METRO.
BUT LET ME FINISH.

Richard says THERE IS NO POLL, PUBLISHED
OR OTHERWISE, THAT'S EVER
SHOWN YOU GUYS
AT 30 PERCENT.
THAT'S NOT THE REPORT...
[all talking at once]

Frances says LET ME FINISH MY POINT,
OKAY, ON THIS, OKAY?

Steve says IN FACT, ENVIRONICS
DID HAVE THE NDP AT
30 PERCENT BEFORE THE WRITS
WERE DROPPED IN METRO TORONTO.
THAT'S TRUE.

Richard says NOTHING CERTAINLY IN
THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN.

Steve says NOT SINCE THAT I'VE
SEEN BUT ANYWAY.

Richard says TWENTY PERCENT BY
THEIR OWN POLLS.

Steve says THINGS MAY'VE CHANGED.

Frances says I'M SHARING WITH YOU THE
MOST RECENT OF WHAT'S
HAPPENING IN METRO, BUT...

Paul says HOW BIG
WAS THE SAMPLE SIZE?
WHO'S THE POLLSTER?
WHAT WAS THE QUESTION?

Frances says SIX PEOPLE IN FRANCES'
RIDING, I BET.

Steve says OKAY, HANG ON.
GO AHEAD, FRANCES.

Frances says MY GOD, YOU GUYS...
LISTEN HOW AGGRESSIVE
THEY BOTH ARE ABOUT THIS.
NOW WHY WOULD THEY BE?

Steve says OKAY,
THAT'S IMMATERIAL.

Frances says LYN MCLEOD HAS GONE FROM
SOUNDING A LOT LIKE MIKE
HARRIS TO CHANGING VERY
CLEARLY HER STRATEGY IN THE
LAST WEEK, AND
SHE'S SAID, OKAY.
WE REALIZE WE NEED TO
DIFFERENTIATE FROM
MIKE HARRIS' PLAN.
WE'VE GOT TO
DO THAT BETTER.
AND WHAT IS SHE DOING
TO DIFFERENTIATE?
WHAT ARE THE LINES THAT
SHE'S OUT THERE SPEAKING
RIGHT NOW?
SHE'S SAYING, GEE, IT'S NOT
REALISTIC TO BELIEVE THAT
YOU CAN CUT TAXES, YOU
CAN BALANCE THE BUDGET,
AND PROTECT HEALTH CARE.
IT DOESN'T ADD UP.
WELL, BOB RAE'S BEEN SAYING
THAT FROM THE BEGINNING, AND
I BELIEVE THAT THE VOTERS AS
THEY LOOK AT THAT ARE GOING
TO SAY, WELL, HOW CAN
THAT BE CREDIBLE COMING
FROM LYN MCLEOD?

Steve says IS A WEEK ENOUGH
TIME TO TURN IT AROUND?
I'LL TELL YOU WHY.
WHEN I SAW MIKE HARRIS SPEAK
AT THE EMPIRE CLUB WEDNESDAY
OF THIS PAST WEEK, I SAW
LARRY GROSSMAN THERE, THE
FORMER LEADER OF THE PARTY,
AND HE SAID MOST PEOPLE MAKE
UP THEIR MINDS WITH
TEN DAYS TO GO.

Paul says THAT'S TRUE.

Steve says AND HE MEANT -- BUT HE MEANT
ON THE TENTH DAY TO GO.
HE MEANT THERE'S VERY LITTLE
CHANGE THAT HAPPENS BETWEEN

IN THE ACTUAL LAST WEEK OF
THE CAMPAIGN, THERE'S VERY
LITTLE CHANGING
THAT GOES ON.
PEOPLE HAVE DECIDED BY THEN.
IN WHICH CASE, IS
THIS ELECTION OVER?
ARE YOU GUYS GOING TO WIN?

Paul says NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT.
IT WAS THE LATE HAROLD
WILSON WHO PASSED AWAY JUST
RECENTLY, FORMER PRIME
MINISTER OF ENGLAND,
GREAT BRITAIN,
SAID THAT A WEEK IS A
LIFETIME IN POLITICS...
AND IT IS.
AND I THINK THE PROOF OF
THAT IS FOUND EVEN IN
THIS CAMPAIGN.

Steve says BUT THE TRENDS
ARE UNMISTAKABLE, PAUL.

Paul says BUT IN THIS CAMPAIGN
WE CAN SEE THAT.
IT'S THAT WHEN YOU TAKE A
LOOK AT THE SHIFT THAT TOOK
PLACE, FROM THE LARGE
LIBERAL LEAD TO THIS MOVING
INTO A NECK AND NECK BATTLE,
THAT TOOK PLACE IN A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
I BELIEVE IT WAS
LESS THAN A WEEK.
AND WHAT CAN BE GRANTED IN A
WEEK CAN BE TAKEN AWAY IN A
WEEK FOR ANY OF THE PARTIES
THAT ARE HERE TODAY.

Steve says HOW WOULD IT
BE TAKEN AWAY?
WHAT MIGHT YOUR LEADER DO
THAT MIGHT TAKE IT AWAY?

Paul says IT'S NOT A MATTER OF DOING.
I THINK WHAT WE'RE INTO IN
THE LAST TEN DAYS IS THE
COMPARISON SHOPPING STILL.
I MEAN PEOPLE ARE
CHANGING THEIR POSITIONS.
THEY CAN EASILY CHANGE BACK.
AND YOU KNOW, REALLY ANYBODY
WHO IS IN A POSITION OF
SAYING WHETHER IT'S A
CENTRAL PARTY OR EVEN A
LOCAL RIDING, TO SAY,
HEY, THIS ONE'S WON.
AT THIS POINT, I THINK IS
MAKING A SERIOUS MISTAKE.

Steve says THE BUZZ I GOT FROM
THE EMPIRE CLUB SPEECH WAS
UNLESS MIKE SAYS SOMETHING
INCREDIBLY STUPID
THIS THING'S OVER.

Paul says THAT'S NOT THE BUZZ
YOU'RE HEARING FROM US.

Richard says I AGREE WITH PAUL.

Steve says IT
WAS
FROM YOU GUYS.

Paul says NOT FROM OUR GUYS.
I'LL TELL YOU, THE BUZZ...
THE BUZZ YOU'RE HEARING FROM
OUR PEOPLE IS IT IS OVER
WHEN THE POLLS CLOSE AT
8 O'CLOCK ON
ELECTION NIGHT.
THAT'S WHEN IT'S OVER, AND WE
CAN SIT AND IN OUR CAMPAIGN
ROOMS AND RELAX.

Steve says OFFICIALLY
YOU'RE SAYING THAT.
UNOFFICIALLY YOU'RE
NOT SAYING THAT.

Paul says ANYBODY WHO'S SAYING THAT
UNOFFICIALLY TO YOU FROM OUR
PARTY ISN'T SOMEONE WHO'S
IN A POSITION TO KNOW.

France says ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
REALLY IS EXTRAORDINARILY
DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS
CAMPAIGN IS THE STILL RECORD
HIGH LEVEL OF
UNDECIDED VOTERS.

Steve says WHAT IS IT NOW?
IS IT A QUARTER?

Frances says YEAH, IT'S ABOUT A QUARTER,
RUNNING ABOUT A QUARTER.

Richard says 17 PERCENT LAST TIME
WE LOOKED AT SOMETHING
PUBLIC ANYWAYS.

Paul says BUT THOSE NUMBERS ARE
SHIFTING SO QUICKLY.

Richard says THAT'S RIGHT.

Paul says YOU CAN GET 25 ONE NIGHT
AND THEN 17 THE NEXT.

Richard says THE OLD PARTISAN LOYALTIES.

Paul says THIS IS ALL FLYING
ALL OVER THE PLACE.

Richard says THE OLD PARTISAN LOYALTIES
VOTING CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE
THEY'RE CONSERVATIVES
VOTING LIBERALS BECAUSE
THEY'RE LIBERALS.

Frances says AND I THINK THAT SPEAKS
TO THE VOLATILITY.

Paul says AND OUR PLATFORM IS DRAWING
SUPPORT IN AREAS THAT WE
DIDN'T THINK IT WOULD.
I THINK OUR MESSAGES ARE
REACHING OUT TO WHAT WOULD
BE ON THE
TRADITIONAL VOTERS.
THE ISSUES OF WORK FARE,
EMPLOYMENT EQUITY,
TAX CUTS FOR JOBS.
THESE ARE THINGS THAT
ARE GETTING THROUGH.

Richard says CAN I JUST RESPOND TO
FRANCES' POINT ABOUT
SUPPOSEDLY US
MOVING TO THE RIGHT.
WHAT I WILL ADMIT IS THAT
ESSENTIALLY DURING THE FIRST
THREE WEEKS OF THE CAMPAIGN,
WE HAD TO DIFFERENTIATE
OURSELVES FROM ATTACKS FROM
BOTH THE NDP AND THE TORIES.
NOW PUBLICLY AVAILABLE POLLS
AND ALL OUR POLLS HAVE
INDICATED IT'S A TWO-WAY
RACE BETWEEN US AND THE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES.
AND OBVIOUSLY WE WELCOME THE
FACT THAT NOW OUR CHALLENGE
IS TO DIFFERENTIATE
OURSELVES.
WHY IS LYN MCLEOD AND
THE ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY
DIFFERENT THAN MIKE HARRIS?
AND I'LL TELL YOU WHY
THEY'RE DIFFERENT.
WE'RE DIFFERENT BECAUSE MIKE
HARRIS IS GOING TO GIVE...
MADE THESE WILD PROMISES FOR
IRRESPONSIBLE TAX CUTS THAT
WILL BENEFIT THE RICH MORE
THAN THE POOR, AND HE'S
GOING TO SLAP A TAX
ON THE MIDDLE CLASS.
[all talking at once]

Paul says IT'S ANOTHER HARD
DRIVE INSERT.
I MEAN YOU'RE BACK INTO...
AND I WATCHED YOU TALK LIKE
A CONSERVATIVE AND I THOUGHT
WELL, THEY'VE OBVIOUSLY PUT
IN NEW SOFTWARE INTO THE
COMPUTERS, AND NOW MIDWAY
THROUGH IT'S HARD
HEARTED, MEAN SPIRITED.
WE'RE THE COMPASSIONATE...
[all talking at once]

Steve says LET ME GET THIS IN WITH A
COUPLE OF MINUTES LEFT.
COUPLE MINUTES LEFT.
SOME OF THE TORIES THAT I
SAW AT THIS EMPIRE CLUB
SPEECH SAID THAT THE
LIBERALS ARE SITTING ON THE
QUOTE UNQUOTE MULRONEY ADS.
AND WHY HAVEN'T
THEY USED THEM YET?
THEY WANTED TO KNOW THIS.
NOW YOU CAN CONFIRM OR DENY
THIS FOR US, THAT YOU'VE GOT
SOME ADS THAT PRESUMABLY TIE
MISTER HARRIS WITH MISTER MULRONEY
TO REMIND EVERYBODY OF HOW
HORRIBLE THE CONSERVATIVES
WERE APPARENTLY
OR PRESUMABLY.
WHY HAVEN'T YOU USED THOSE
YET OR WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?

Richard says BECAUSE WHAT WE THINK IS
IMPORTANT IN OUR ADVERTISING
IS COMPARISON AND CONTRAST.
COMPARE OUR POSITIONS WITH
THOSE OF THE TORIES...

Paul says IN YOUR LATEST SET
OF ADS YOU'RE NOT DOING
ANY COMPARISONS.

Richard says SURE WE ARE.

Paul says YOU'RE ATTACKING...

Steve says LET ME FIND OUT
ABOUT THE MULRONEY ADS.
[all talking at once]

Richard says YES, FOR SURE.
YOU CAN DO THAT THAT SHOW
MIKE HARRIS SHAKING HANDS
WITH BRIAN MULRONEY OR
SOMETHING LIKE THAT, OR THE
FACT THAT, YOU KNOW, SOME OF
THE SAME PEOPLE WHO BROUGHT
YOU BRIAN MULRONEY
ARE BRINGING...

Steve says WHEN ARE WE
GOING TO SEE THAT?

Richard says I DON'T THINK THAT'S GOING
TO HAVE IMPACT ON THE VOTERS.
I THINK THE VOTERS
WANT MESSAGE ADS.
THEY DON'T WANT...

Steve says SO WE WON'T
SEE IT, YOU THINK?

Richard says I DON'T THINK SO, NO.

Frances says WHAT'S GOING TO
HAPPEN IN THE NEXT WEEK IS...
BOTH PARTIES SITTING HERE
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO
FOCUS OBVIOUSLY ON THE
FRONTRUNNER, ON MIKE HARRIS.
THE LIBERALS ARE GOING
TO START TALKING ABOUT
STRATEGIC VOTING.
IF YOU WANT TO STOP MIKE HARRIS
YOU HAVE TO VOTE LIBERAL.
THEY'RE GOING TO TRY AND
CONVINCE PEOPLE THAT THEY ARE
IN SECOND PLACE.
I THINK THAT THE TREND
WE'RE SEEING IN FACT IS THAT
THE DROP -- I MEAN YOU'RE
NOT GOING TO AGREE WITH ME,
BUT THE DROP IS
STILL HAPPENING.
WE BELIEVE THAT WE ARE
MOVING INTO SECOND PLACE AND
THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE
THE BENEFICIARIES OF
THAT STRATEGIC VOTING.
ALL OF OUR EFFORTS ARE GOING
TO BE CONTINUING TO TRY AND
POINT OUT TO PEOPLE WHAT A
MISTAKE IT WOULD BE TO VOTE
FOR THE HARRIS
VISION OF ONTARIO.
IT'S UP IN THE AIR BY
ELECTION DAY WHETHER THAT
STRATEGY WILL BE
SUCCESSFUL OR NOT.

Steve says THAT'S GOT TO BE
THE LAST WORD.
ONE MORE WEEK OF SLEEP
DEPRIVATION TO GO.

Richard says THAT'S RIGHT.

Steve says AND THEN YOU ALL START
YOUR SUMMER VACATIONS.
THANKS AGAIN.

Richard says THANKS A
LOT, STEVE.

Paul says THANKS, STEVE.

Back in the studio, Steve says RICK MAHONEY, FRANCES
LANKIN AND PAUL RHODES.
OKAY, WHO'S GOT SOME
THOUGHTS COMING OUT OF THAT?

Greg says I THINK THIS HAS
BECOME THE LET'S PRETEND
LIBERAL CAMPAIGN.
IT WILL BE KNOWN AS THE
LET'S PRETEND CAMPAIGN.
THE LIBERALS STARTED OFF
SAYING LET'S PRETEND WE'RE
NOT SOCIALISTS.
LET'S PRETEND WE'RE NOT
CONSERVATIVES AND NOW
THEY'RE SAYING LET'S
PRETEND WE'RE NOT LIBERALS.
I THINK IT'S ALL OVER THE
CREDIBILITY ISSUE AND THE
RACE IS -- IT'S A TWO-PARTY
RACE FOR LAST PLACE BETWEEN
THE LIBERALS AND THE NDP.
THE CONSERVATIVES ARE SO FAR
AHEAD THEY'RE GOING TO GET
A MAJORITY.

Steve says DUFF.

John says LET'S PRETEND VOTERS STILL
HAVE A CHOICE WHY DON'T WE?
WHICH THEY DO AND THE POLLS
CONFIRM THAT THEY DO.
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS
THAT IT IS A TWO-HORSE RACE.
MIKE HARRIS HAS DONE A GOOD
JOB GETTING AS FAR AS HE'S
GOTTEN ON THE ISSUES HE'S
GOTTEN, BUT WHAT HE'S DONE
IN THE PAST WEEK IS HE
HASN'T ANSWERED THE
QUESTIONS THAT PEOPLE HAVE
ABOUT HIS TAX PLAN, WHETHER
HE COMMITTED TO JOBS, WHAT
KIND OF SOCIETY THAT
HE WOULD PRESIDE OVER.
INSTEAD, HE'S JUST RAISED
MORE QUESTIONS ON THINGS
FROM BOOT CAMP TO ABORTION
CLINICS TO YOU NAME IT.
THE QUESTION VOTERS ARE
ASKING THEMSELVES OVER THE
WEEKEND - AND THEY DO HAVE
A CHOICE - IS WHAT KIND OF
SOCIETY DO THEY WANT AND
THAT'S WHY I THINK ON
THURSDAY THEY'RE GOING TO
VOTE TO HAVE THE KIND OF
SOCIETY THAT'S BEEN
GOOD FOR ONTARIO BEFORE.

Steve says ARE YOU
WORRIED THAT HE'S...
I MEAN HE'S BEING PAINTED AS AN
AWFULLY MEAN-SPIRITED LEADER,
MIKE HARRIS HAS BEEN.

Jane says HE IS, AND I THINK PEOPLE
KNOW BETTER BECAUSE THEY'VE
HAD A LONG TIME
WITH THIS GUY.
THEY'VE KNOWN WHERE HE
STOOD FOR A LONG TIME.
HE WAS A TAX
FIGHTER IN 1990.
THEY'VE GOT A GOOD SENSE
OF HIM, AND DON'T FORGET.
ON THE LEADERSHIP ISSUE, ON
LEADERSHIP, HE HAS ALWAYS
BEEN IN THE LEAD.
MISTER RAE HAS BEEN POPULAR.

Hugh says NOT NOW.

Jane says HE CONTINUES TO BE -- HUGH,
YOU'VE SAID IT YOURSELF THAT
THE PARTIES ARE MOVING UP TO
WHERE THE LEADERS HAVE BEEN
AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT
THE POLLS ARE SHOWING.
MIKE HARRIS, I THINK,
IS THE MOST TRUSTED.
HE'S SEEN AS THE ONE WHO'S
SINCERE, AND HE'S BEEN THE
ONLY ONE WHO'S PUT ON THE
LINE THE FACT THAT IF HE
DOESN'T DO WHAT HE SAYS HE'S
GOING TO DO, HE'S SPELLED
OUT WHAT HE'S GOING TO DO
TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE.
HE'LL RESIGN.
HIS CABINET WILL BE PUNISHED
WITH THE TAX CUTS FOR NOT...

Steve says PAY CUTS.

Jane says DID I SAY TAX CUTS?
THEY'LL BE BENEFITTED
WITH TAX CUTS.
PUNISHED WITH PAY CUTS.

Hugh says THE POOR ARE
GOING TO PUNISHED
WITH HARRIS'
TAX CUTS.

Steve says WAS THAT A
FREUDIAN SLIP THERE?

Jane says NO, NO, NO.
YOU KNOW WHAT?
THE POOR ALSO PAY TAXES.
THEY WILL BENEFIT FROM
A REDUCTION IN THEIR
INCOME TAX RATE.
DIRECTLY TO THE BOTTOM LINE
IN THE SAME RATIO AS PEOPLE
WITH MORE MONEY.

Hugh says CAN I JUMP INTO
THIS FOR A SECOND?
THIS IS A
THREE-WAY RACE.
WE ARE TAKING VOTES FROM BOTH
THE TORIES AND THE LIBERALS.
THAT'S WHY THEY'RE FALLING
ALL OVER THEMSELVES TO TRY
TO PORTRAY THIS
AS A TWO-WAY RACE.
OUR NUMBERS ARE MOVING UP
TOWARDS THE LEADERSHIP NUMBERS.
LEADERSHIP IS BECOMING MORE
AND MORE IMPORTANT IN THIS
CAMPAIGN AS WE GO ALONG, AND
I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A
VERY INTERESTING LAST WEEK.
I REMIND PEOPLE THAT IN THE
LAST ELECTION CAMPAIGN THE
WEEK BEFORE THE
ELECTION WE WERE AT 46.
WE FINISHED AT 38.
A LOT CAN CHANGE IN A WEEK,
AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE
A VERY, VERY INTERESTING TIME.
AND I THINK THAT MIKE HARRIS
IS GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH
TIME KEEPING HIS POSITION.

Steve says THAT'S GOT TO BE
THE LAST WORD ON THIS.
WELL, YOU'RE RIGHT.
A WEEK IS A LONG TIME IN
POLITICS AND JUDGING FROM
THE SMILES AROUND THIS
TABLE, YOU ALL CAN'T WAIT TO
SEE WHAT'S GOING TO
TRANSPIRE OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
OKAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT IS
ELECTION NIGHT.
GET OUT THERE AND
VOTE EVERYBODY.
LIKE I GOT TO
REMIND YOU GUYS.

Jane says WE'LL BE HERE.

Steve says WE'RE HAVING A
PARTY HERE.
WE'LL SEE YOU HERE AND WITH
ANY LUCK, A WEEK TODAY WE'LL
HAVE THE EITHER RETURNING
PREMIER OR A NEW PREMIER
ELECT ON THE PROGRAM.
ALL RIGHT, WE WELCOME YOUR
COMMENTS ON THE PROGRAM.
SO PLEASE WRITE
TO US AT:

A slate appears with a caption that reads "4th Reading. Box 200, Station Q, Toronto, Ontario. M4T 2T1."

Steve says OR REACH US
IN CYBERSPACE AT:

Another slate appears. It reads "Studio 2. Internet address: Studio 2@tvo.org."

Steve says VOTE. I'M STEVE PAIKIN.
SEE YOU NEXT TIME.

Fast clips from the show play as the end credits roll.

Production manager, Wally Teska.

Show producer, Alex Bystram.

Director, Allan Myers.

NABET SNTC.

A production of TVOntario. The Ontario Educational Communications Authority. 1995.

Watch: Campaign Wrap