Transcript: Polls | May 28, 1995

The opening sequence rolls.

In animation, the words "4th reading" and "Election Watch" swirl against a red slate as pictures of different politicians show.

Steve Paikin sits in the studio with 4 guests. He’s in his late thirties, clean-shaven and with short curly brown hair. He wears a gingham blue blazer and a black T-shirt.

He says WELCOME TO 4TH READING'S
ELECTION WATCH, EVERYBODY.
I'M STEVE PAIKIN.
WEEK FOUR OF THE SIX-WEEK
ELECTION CAMPAIGN
HAS COME AND GONE.
THE BIG NEWS THIS WAS A
NEW POLL THAT SHOWED
THE TORIES GAINING A BIT
OF GROUND ON THE LIBERALS.
JOINING OUR QUEEN'S PARK
WATCHERS TONIGHT WILL BE
A MAN WHO'S BEEN KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THE NUMBERS
IN ONTARIO, POLLSTER.
YOU'RE NOT A
POSTAL WORKER.
POLLSTER JOHN WRIGHT, AND
WE'LL CHECK IN WITH
A COUPLE OF JOURNALISTS
WHO HAVE BEEN COVERING
THE THREE LEADERS ABOUT
WHAT YOU'RE NOT SEEING
ON THE NIGHTLY NEWS.
BUT FIRST, LET'S LOOK
BACK AT LAST WEEK
ON THE HUSTINGS.

A fast clip shows images of Mike Harris at a radio show with the caption "Friday."

Mike is in his late forties, clean-shaven and with short straight gray hair. He wears black trousers and a blue shirt.

Mike says HUMBLE FRED AND
MIKE SHOW.

Steve says THE DAY AFTER
THE LEADERS SQUARED OFF
ON TELEVISION, THE
DEBATE CONTINUED.
MIKE HARRIS KEPT
UP HIS ATTACK
ON THE LIBERAL
ACTION PLAN.

On a stand, Mike says JUST LIKE THOSE CARNIVAL
RIDES, AFTER THE ELECTION,
THEIR LITTLE RED BOOK WILL
DISAPPEAR AS QUICKLY
AS IT APPEARED.

Steve says LYN
MCLEOD RETURNED FIRE.

Lyn is in her early fifties, with short wavy gray hair. She wears a blue jacket and a long pearl necklace.

She says PEOPLE ARE SUMMING UP THE
CONSERVATIVE PLATFORM
IN THREE VERY
SHORT WORDS.
NO CAN DO.

Steve says WHILE
THE PREMIER
TRIED TO AVOID
A FIGHT.

Bob Rae is in his mid-forties, clean-shaven and with short straight white hair. He wears glasses, blue trousers, a blue suit, white shirt and printed tie.

He says YOU TALK ABOUT A
KNOCK-OUT PUNCH.
THIS ISN'T A
BOXING RING.
THIS IS A DISCUSSION BETWEEN
THREE POLITICAL LEADERS.

The caption changes to "Saturday."

Steve says ALL
THREE PARTIES SLOWED
THE CAMPAIGN DOWN A BIT
FOR THE LONG WEEKEND.
THE LIBERALS COVERING
SOME OLD GROUND
WITH SPEECHES
ON CRIME.

Lyn says A LIBERAL GOVERNMENT
WILL ALSO TAKE STEPS
TO CLEAN UP THE PAROLE
SYSTEM BY MAKING
PROVINCIALLY APPOINTED
PAROLE BOARD MEMBERS
MORE ACCOUNTABLE
FOR THEIR ACTIONS.

Steve says
AND ON WELFARE.

The caption changes to "Sunday."

Lyn says NOTHING SYMBOLIZES LOST
OPPORTUNITY MORE POIGNANTLY
THAN THE 1.3 MILLION
ONTARIANS WHO DEPEND
ON WELFARE, MORE THAN
500,000 OF THEM CHILDREN.

Steve says WHILE
MIKE HARRIS SPOKE ABOUT
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY.

Mike says TRUST AND ACCOUNTABILITY
IS SUCH AN IMPORTANT ISSUE
THAT I THINK THE FIRST
STRIKE IS THE LAST STRIKE.

Steve says HE LATER RAN
INTO ONE VOTER WHO DIDN'T
TRUST HIS PROMISE TO FIND
WORK FOR PEOPLE ON WELFARE.

The caption changes to "Monday."

The voter says I'M ONE OF APPROXIMATELY
A THOUSAND PEOPLE
IN THIS AREA WHO ARE
ON SOCIAL ASSISTANCE.
WHERE ARE YOU GOING TO COME
UP WITH A THOUSAND JOBS?

Mike says WELL, THAT'S WHY
OUR PLAN IS -

The voter says I WANT TO KNOW.
WHERE ARE YOU GOING TO
COME UP IN MIDLAND
AND PENETANG AREA WITH
A THOUSAND JOBS?

Steve says FOR THE
MOST PART, PREMIER RAE
SPENT THE LONG
WEEKEND MEETING VOTERS
THROUGHOUT THE PROVINCE.
THE LEISURELY PACE ENDED
ALONG WITH THE WEEKEND.
MIKE HARRIS WENT TO
LYN MCLEOD TERRITORY,
THUNDER BAY, WITH A
NEW PROP TO SHOW
WHAT HE THINKS OF THE
PROMISES IN HER RED BOOK.

The caption changes to "Tuesday."

Mike says YET, HER RED BOOK DOESN'T
OFFER THE TAX CUTS
THAT JUST A FEW MONTHS
AGO MISSUS MCLEOD SAID
WE NEEDED TO
GENERATE GROWTH.

Steve says BUT THE
BIG NEWS THAT DAY,
A NEW POLL SHOWING THE
LIBERAL LEAD SLIPPING
AND THE TORIES GAINING
A BIT OF GROUND.

An edition of The Toronto Sun appears with the front page headline "Grit popularity plummets: Poll."

A bar chart appears with the title "Compas Incorporated Poll" and the following data: Liberal, 40 percent; P.C, 36 percent: N.D.P, 21 percent; Undecided, 24 percent."

Steve says THE SAMPLE SIZE WAS SMALL, THE
RESULTS ARE BEING QUESTIONED,
BUT THE TORIES LIKED
WHAT THEY SAW ANYWAY.

Mike says QUITE FRANKLY, THIS ONE
IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
OUR OWN POLLING, AND
OBVIOUSLY WE LIKE THE TREND.

Steve says EVEN THOUGH THE
POLL PUTS THE NDP DEAD LAST,
IT DID SHOW THAT MOST
PEOPLE STILL THINK BOB RAE
WOULD MAKE THE
BEST PREMIER,
AND THAT
ENCOURAGED HIM.

Bob says I FOUND LOTS IN THE POLL
THAT'S ENCOURAGING.
I NEVER GET FIXATED ON
WHAT I CALL SORT THE TOP
OF MY NUMBER, BECAUSE
THAT JUMPS AROUND A LOT.
BUT WHAT YOU HAVE TO LOOK
FOR IS THE TREND LINES.
THE TREND LINES ARE ALL GOING
IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

Steve says ONLY LYN
MCLEOD COULDN'T
FIND ANYTHING GOOD TO
SAY ABOUT THE POLL.

Lyn says I DON'T COMMENT
ON POLLS.
YOU GO THROUGH A CAMPAIGN
WITH A VERY CLEAR STRATEGY
AND THAT'S JUST TO WORK
HARD TO GET YOUR MESSAGE OUT,
AND I'M LOOKING
FORWARD TO JUNE 8TH.

Steve says WELL, OF COURSE, THERE
WILL BE MORE POLLS TO COME
BEFORE THIS ELECTION
CAMPAIGN IS OVER,
SO JOINING US TO EXPLAIN
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
IS JOHN WRIGHT.
HE IS THE SENIOR VICE-PRESIDENT
OF THE ANGUS REID
POLLING FIRM,

John is in his mid-forties, clean-shaven and with short thinning straight blond hair. He wears a blue suit with fine stripes, a white shirt and a blue and green striped tie.

Steve says AND WE
ARE JOINED BY MISTER WRIGHT
WITH OUR REGULARS, HUGH
MACKENZIE, AND JANE PEPINO,
AND PATRICK GOSSAGE.
WELCOME BACK, ONE
AND ALL.

Hugh Mackenzie is in his late forties, clean-shaven and with short receding wavy gray hair. He wears glasses, a blue suit, a white shirt and a printed tie.

Jane Pepino is in her fifties, with short slightly wavy gray hair. She wears a blue blazer over a white blouse and pearl earrings.

Patrick Gossage is in his mid-fifties, clean-shaven and with short wavy gray hair. He wears glasses, a gray gingham suit and a pale gray shirt.

Steve says LET'S JUST TALK ABOUT THE
METHODOLOGY USED IN THIS POLL
BECAUSE THERE WAS
CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION
THAT THIS SOMEHOW WASN'T
REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT
WAS REALLY GOING
ON OUT THERE.
THAT THE 507 PEOPLE
SURVEYED ISN'T ENOUGH
TO BE LEGIT.

Hugh says
SURE IT IS.

A caption reads "John Wright. Senior V.P, Angus Reid Group."

John says IT IS ENOUGH LEGIT FOR
A COUPLE OF REASONS.
ONE IS THAT, I GUESS, IF
THE LIBERALS DON'T EMBRACE
THIS POLL AND SAY
THAT IT'S NOT ENOUGH,
WELL THEN THEY HAVE TO
DISCARD OURS BECAUSE
FOR THE LAST 4 AND A HALF YEARS,
OUR MONTHLY POLLING
HAS SHOWN ON 525.
SO THE DIFFERENCE IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 POINTS.

Steve says BUT MOST POLLS I HEAR
ALWAYS SURVEY 1,003
PEOPLE OR SOMETHING.

John says AND THE MAJOR REASON FOR
THAT IS BECAUSE YOU WANT
TO LOOK AT THE REGIONAL
DIFFERENCES IN A POLL.
IF YOU WANTED TO TAKE A
SNAPSHOT OF AN AREA LIKE
ONTARIO AND JUST SORT OF
SEE WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE
ON THE SURFACE, THEN A POLL
OF 500 IS STATISTICALLY
ACCURATE IF YOU'VE DONE
ALL THE RIGHT THINGS
THAT YOU NORMALLY
DO WITH POLLING.
IF YOU WANT TO START
LOOKING DOWN IN THE REGIONS
LIKE TORONTO OR OTTAWA,
OR THE EAST OR THE WEST
OR THE NORTH, THEN YOU HAVEN'T
GOT ENOUGH TO WORK WITH,
AND SO YOU HAVE TO BUMP
THE SAMPLE UP TO BETWEEN
800 AND MAYBE 1,200
IN ORDER TO DO THAT.
SO AS A SNAPSHOT, YOU
KNOW, JUST REMEMBER THAT
IN THE UNITED STATES, FOR
INSTANCE, WE'VE GOT GALLUP,
WHO WITH CNN, OVERNIGHT
WILL DO A SNAP POPULARITY
POLL WITH THE
PRESIDENT WITH A GROUP
OF ALMOST 300
MILLION THERE.
THEIR SAMPLE
SIZE IS 500.
SO THE NUMBER DOESN'T
REALLY MATTER
THAT MUCH AND
JUST HOW MUCH -

Steve says SCIENTIFICALLY
THAT WORKS.

John says IT'S THE SAME FOR A PROCTOR
AND GAMBLE, AND MCDONALD'S,
AND DOG FOOD, AND DONUTS,
IF YOU WANT TO DO IT
WITH 500, YOU CAN.
THE MARGIN OF ERROR'S ABOUT
4.5 PERCENTAGE POINTS.
IF ALL THE OTHER
METHODOLOGICAL PIECES
ARE IN PLACE, IT'S AN
ACCURATE SNAPSHOT.

Steve says BEFORE I GET FROM
THESE GUYS ON THIS,
LET ME TRY YOU.
WHEN THE ELECTION
WRITS WERE DROPPED,
THE LIBERALS WERE
UP AT OVER 50.
NOW THEY'RE
DOWN TO 40.
THE TORIES WERE
PRETTY LOW.
WHAT WERE THEY, HIGH 20S
OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT?

John says MID 28, MM-HMM.

Steve says NOW THEY'VE
GONE UP A BIT.
DO YOU KNOW WHY?
I DON'T KNOW WHY BECAUSE

John says WE'LL WITH OUR OWN POLLS
HAVE A DIAGNOSTIC ON THIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
BUT I THINK THERE'S
A FEW TREND LINES
THAT YOU REALLY
WATCH FOR.
THE FIRST OF ALL IS
THAT OUR POLLING,
AS WELL AS
EVERYBODY ELSE'S,
SHOWS THAT THE LIBERAL
VOTE WAS PRETTY SOFT.
THERE'S ABOUT 16 PERCENTAGE
POINTS OVERALL
IN WHICH PEOPLE CAN MOVE
AROUND, SO 4 IN 10
OF HER COMMITTED VOTE WAS
PRETTY SOFT GOING INTO IT.
SECONDLY, WHEN YOU GET INTO
A CAMPAIGN IN THE FIRST PART
PEOPLE ARE NOT REALLY
TUNED IN ALL THAT MUCH.
WHAT WE HAVE
HAD IS A DEBATE.
WE'VE HAD ADVERTISING,
WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED
PRIMARILY AT HER AND
AGAINST HER FROM BOTH SIDES.
THE TORIES ARE
RUNNING ADS.
LYN MCLEOD AND
BANGING UP AGAINST THAT.
AND I THINK THE LAST TWO
WEEKS OF THIS CAMPAIGN AND
ACTUALLY THE NEXT WEEK IS
ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL BECAUSE
PEOPLE ARE NOW TUNED IN AND
TURNED ON TO THIS CAMPAIGN.
WE'VE NOW GOT
A DEBATE.
WE'VE NOW GOT
SOME PERSONALITY,
AND OUTSIDE OF JUST SORT OF
WHO YOU'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR,
PEOPLE ARE NOW MOVING
PAST THE PLANKS AND LOOKING
MORE AT THE CHARACTER
AND THE FUNCTIONING
OF THE CAMPAIGN AND
THE PEOPLE THERE,
SO YOU KNOW AS WE'VE
DISCUSSED BEFORE,
THE ISSUE OF WHO IS
PREMIER AND THE CHARACTER
OF THAT MAY BECOME
MORE IMPORTANT
OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

Steve says PATRICK, I'VE TALKED
TO LOTS OF LIBERALS
IN THE PAST WHO
EXPECTED THE LIBERAL
POLLING NUMBERS TO
DROP AFTER ONE WEEK,
NOT AFTER FOUR WEEKS.
IT'S TAKEN FOUR WEEKS
FOR THE NUMBERS TO FALL.
SO, A) DO YOU KNOW WHY IT
TOOK SO LONG AND
B) WHY IT WENT 10 POINTS
AS OPPOSED TO 5 POINTS,
WHICH I THINK IS WHAT MOST
PEOPLE FIGURED IT WOULD GO?

Hugh says IF
IT'S ONLY 10 NOW.

Steve says IF IT'S ONLY
10 NOW, THAT'S RIGHT.

The caption changes to "Patrick Gossage. President of Media Profile."

Patrick says FIRST OF ALL, I THINK THERE
WAS THIS EXPECTATION.
THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT
THAT AND PEOPLE
WERE BRACED FOR IT, THE
WAY THEY ARE IN THEIR
ROOM ON SAINT MARY STREET.
WHY DID IT HAPPEN?
I THINK ONE OF THE REASONS
IS THAT THE HARRIS
TELEVISION ADVERTISING,
PICKING ON WHAT THEY'RE
CALLING WEDGE ISSUES,
WHICH ARE WELFARE AND
EMPLOYMENT EQUITY, YOU
KNOW, AND ISOLATING THAT
AS AN AREA WHERE LYN IS
REALLY WEAK IN THEIR VIEW,
YOU KNOW, PROBABLY
HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE
IN UNHOOKING SOME KIND
OF DISENFRANCHISED
OR OUT-OF-WORK
BLUE-COLLAR PEOPLE.
THE KIND OF PEOPLE WHO
SAY, YEAH, YOU KNOW,
THIS IS MY KIND
OF ISSUE.
AND INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH, AND I'D LOVE
TO HEAR YOU TALK ON THIS,
THESE ARE NDP VOTERS
WHO I THINK NDP
SWITCHED TORY VOTERS
ARE GOING TO BE AN
INTERESTING PHENOMENON
IN THIS ELECTION AND I THINK
WE'RE SEEING A BIT OF THAT.

Steve says ARE
YOU SURE OF THAT?

Patrick says WELL, I THINK THAT THERE'S
A CHANGE TAKING PLACE
IN THE DYNAMIC OF THE
ELECTION CAMPAIGN.

The caption changes to "Hugh Mackenzie. Former Aide to Bob Rae."

Hugh says I THINK THAT OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS PEOPLE
HAVE STARTED TO FOCUS LESS
ON THE BATTLE OF THE BOOKS
AND MORE ON WHO DO THEY
WANT TO BE PREMIER.
AND I THINK ONE OF THE
THINGS THAT'S GOING ON HERE
IS THAT WE'RE SEEING THE
PARTY NUMBERS START TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LEADER
NUMBERS AND LYN MCLEOD
HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY
BEHIND HER PARTY
AND THE LIBERAL VOTE
IS DROPPING.
MIKE HARRIS HAS BEEN
RUNNING WAY AHEAD OF
HIS PARTY AND THE TORY
VOTE HAS BEEN COMING UP.
AND THE NDP VOTE
HAS BEEN COMING UP,
NOT AS QUICKLY AS I
WOULD LIKE, OBVIOUSLY,
BUT BOB RAE'S APPROVAL
RATING IS IMPROVING.
I THINK THAT THAT'S
PART OF WHAT'S GOING ON.

Steve says I HATE TO SHOW, JOHN,
YOUR COMPETITOR'S WORK
ON THE AIR HERE.

John says GO FOR IT.

Steve says HERE'S THE COMPAS POLL
AND HERE'S WHAT
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT.
CAN WE SEE THIS?

Steve shows a printed bar graph with the title "Best premier irrespective of party."

Steve says I MEAN, HERE'S
BOB RAE, 43 PERCENT.
WHO'D BE THE BEST PREMIER
REGARDLESS OF WHAT PARTY,
AND MIKE HARRIS IS SECOND,
AND LYN MCLEOD IS THIRD.
RAE'S RUNNING WELL AHEAD
OF HIS PARTY, THOUGH.

Hugh says EXACTLY.

Steve says IS HIS PARTY
CATCHING UP TO HIM YET?

John says WELL AGAIN BASED ON OUR
POLLS, THE ANSWER IS NO,
AND I THINK PATRICK'S
RAISED A COUPLE
OF IMPORTANT POINTS, AND
THAT IS IF YOU'VE GOT THIS
SOFT VOTE, WHICH IS A GOOD
GOB OF PEOPLE INSIDE
THE LIBERAL CAMP AND A LITTLE
GROUP INSIDE THE TORY CAMP,
WHERE ARE THEY GOING?
AND OUR NUMBERS SHOW
A SECOND CHOICE.
EIGHT IN TEN OF THOSE
PEOPLE ON THE GRIT CAMP
DROPPED TO THE TORIES.
EIGHT IN TEN OF THE TORIES
DROPPED TO THE GRITS.
TWO IN TEN IN BOTH OF
THEM GO TO THE NDP.
SO THE QUESTION
IS RIGHT NOW,
IS THE NDP VOTE A
GLASS CEILING
OR IS IT A
CONCRETE FLOOR?
IT'S MORE OF A CONCRETE
FLOOR AT THE MOMENT.
THERE'S NOT A LOT
OF MOBILITY THERE.
BUT SECONDLY, THE TRENDS
HAVE ALWAYS BEEN,
WHERE BOB RAE HAS
BEEN OUT IN FRONT,
LIKE THERE HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF POLLS THAT
HAVE SHOWED MIKE HARRIS
CLOSE AND RIGHT THERE.

Hugh says SOME OF OUR
INTERNAL POLLING,
AS LATE AS THREE
OR FOUR WEEKS AGO,
WAS SHOWING HARRIS
RUNNING AHEAD.

Patrick says
AHEAD OF HIS PARTY?

Jane says AHEAD OF RAE.

John says BUT RECENTLY OUR NUMBERS
HAVE STARTED TO REFLECT
THE KIND OF NUMBERS THAT
APPEAR HERE FOR BOB,
AND I THINK THAT

WELL, I MEAN,
THE OLD LINE ABOUT
A WEEK BEING
A LONG TIME
IN POLITICS.

Steve says IT SURE IS.

Hugh says WE'VE GOT TWO WEEKS LEFT
AND I THINK THERE'S
AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF
FLUIDITY OUT THERE.

Steve says LET ME ASK JANE THIS.

Hugh says AND I THINK
THAT FRANKLY LYN HAS
GOT SOME REAL PROBLEMS.
I THINK THAT THERE'S EVERY
LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE'S
A HOLE RIGHT IN THE BOTTOM OF
THE LIBERAL CAMPAIGN
AND IT'S JUST
DROPPING RIGHT OUT.

Steve says LET ME ASK JANE THIS.
DO YOU WORRY - YOU'RE
STILL IN SECOND PLACE
AS FAR AS WE KNOW AS WE SIT
HERE DOING THIS PROGRAM.
DO YOU WORRY THAT YOU'VE
PEAKED TOO SOON AS A TORY
PARTY AND THAT IN FACT
THERE'S STILL WAY TOO MUCH
TIME LEFT FOR MISTER RAE, BUT
ESPECIALLY MISSUS MCLEOD,
TO BOMB YOUR
BRIDGE SO TO SPEAK?
TWO WEEKS IS A
LONG TIME IN POLITICS.

The caption changes to "Jane Pepino. Ontario Tory activist."

Jane says YES, OF COURSE IT IS.
BUT THE FACT IS, I THINK
PATRICK HIGHLIGHTED,
THE WEDGE ISSUES IS
MOVING SOME VOTES.
WHAT WE SEE AS WELL
IS THAT PEOPLE
ARE TUNED INTO NOW THE
FUNDAMENTALS OF THE CAMPAIGN,
WHICH ARE TAX CUTS,
DEALING WITH THE DEBT
AND THE DEFICIT.
THE DEBT AND THE
DEFICIT, IT'S THE KEY
AND THE LARGEST ISSUE.

Steve says I GOT ONE FOR
THIS, TOO.
OH, OKAY, GOOD.
WHERE ARE YOU
THERE, ROGER.
LET'S PUT THIS UP AND AGAIN
THIS IS THE COMPAS POLL
THAT WAS IN THE SUN THAT
EVERYBODY WAS TALKING ABOUT
SO MISCHIEVOUSLY LAST WEEK.

Steve shows another printed bar chart with the title "Most important election issue."

Steve says MOST IMPORTANT
ELECTION ISSUE:
DEBT, TAXES.

Jane says THEN ECONOMIC GROWTH
AND COULD I JUST -

Steve says JOBS
ISN'T EVEN HERE.

Jane says YES, THAT'S RIGHT.

Patrick says
CLEAR THERE.

Jane says WELL, I'M NOT SO SURE.

Steve says DEBT NUMBER 1,
TAXES NUMBER 2,
ECONOMIC GROWTH,
WHICH PRESUMABLY
MEANS JOBS, NUMBER 3.
AND IF DEBT AND TAXES ARE
THE KEY ISSUES FOR PEOPLE
RIGHT NOW, I KNOW
WHICH LEADER
HAS BEEN FOCUSING
ON THOSE THE MOST.
MIKE HARRIS.

Jane says YOU'RE RIGHT.
HARRIS HAS CONSISTENTLY

WELL, GEEZ,
I WISH YOU'D READ
IT SOME DAY, HUGH.
HARRIS HAS
CONSISTENTLY -

Steve says HARRIS HAS
CONSISTENTLY?

Jane says HAS CONSISTENTLY FOR
THE LAST YEAR SAID,
HERE'S WHAT WE THINK THE
ISSUES ARE AND HERE'S
WHAT WE'RE PLANNING
TO DO ABOUT THEM.
WHAT DO YOU
THINK ABOUT IT?
AND IN FACT, THOSE
ISSUES WERE IDENTIFIED,
NOT OUT OF SOME, YOU KNOW,
A POLLING NECESSARILY
JUST TO DEAL WITH
THE ELECTION.
THEY REPRESENT FUNDAMENTAL
UNDERPINNINGS
OF WHAT IT IS THE PLAN
IS FOR THE GOVERNMENT.
BASED ON CONSULTATION
WITH PEOPLE.

Steve says UNDERSTOOD.

Jane says YEAH.

Steve says BUT NOT EVEN
TORY SUPPORTERS,
AND MAYBE YOU'VE GOT SOME
NUMBERS TO BEAR THIS OUT.
NOT EVEN TORY SUPPORTERS
BELIEVE THAT TAX CUTS
ARE A GOOD IDEA UNTIL
THE BUDGET IS BALANCED.

Patrick says WELL, THAT WAS
IN THE POLL TOO.

Jane says I DON'T KNOW WHERE YOU
GOT THAT STATEMENT.

Steve says I'VE GOT IT RIGHT HERE.
SHOULD ONTARIO CUT
TAXES NOW OR WAIT
A BALANCED
BUDGET FIRST?
61 PERCENT OF PC
VOTERS SAY, WAIT.
61.
THIS IS THE ONE HERE.

He shows another printed bar chart.

Hugh says GOOD
COMMONSENSE TORIES.

Steve says 61 PERCENT
OF PC VOTERS SAY,
DON'T CUT TAXES YET.

Hugh says NO ONE
BELIEVES THAT STUFF.

Steve says NO ONE BELIEVES THAT
TAX CUTS ARE COMING.

Jane says YOU KNOW WHAT, BUT
EVEN ASSUMING THAT,
LET'S JUST TAKE THAT
AS A HYPOTHETICAL.
IF PEOPLE DON'T BELIEVE
IT, THEY STILL SUPPORT IT.
THEY WANT TO KNOW THAT
SOMEBODY'S
PREPARED TO
TACKLE TAXES.

Hugh says PEOPLE LIKE THE IDEA THAT
SOMEBODY'S SAYING IT.
I THINK THE TOUGH THING FOR
MIKE HARRIS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS IS GOING
TO BE THAT FRANKLY I THINK
THAT MIKE HARRIS HAS BEEN
BENEFITING FROM A DEGREE
OF BENIGN NEGLECT OVER THE
LAST THREE OR FOUR WEEKS,
MAYBE EVEN IN
THE LAST YEAR.

Steve says
FROM WHO?

Hugh says FROM THE PRESS.
FROM THE ELECTORATE
GENERALLY.
I DON'T THINK PEOPLE HAVE
BEEN PAYING VERY MUCH
ATTENTION TO WHAT HE'S
BEEN SAYING BECAUSE
THEY HAVEN'T CONSIDERED
HIM AS A LEGITIMATE THREAT
TO BECOME THE PREMIER AND
I THINK AS PEOPLE START
TO FOCUS, I THINK HE'S
GOING TO HAVE A TOUGHER
AND TOUGHER TIME
EXPLAINING THESE THINGS.

Jane says HOWEVER, THAT
POLL APPARENTLY WHERE
HE JUST LOOKED PEOPLE
IN THE EYE AND HE SAID,
HERE'S MY MESSAGE.
HERE'S THE PLAN.
HERE'S WHAT WE'VE BEEN
TALKING TO PEOPLE ABOUT
AND HEARING FROM THEM, PEOPLE
APPARENTLY IN THE POLL
IDENTIFIED HIM AS BEING THE
ONE WHO'S MOST PERSUASIVE
OUT OF THE DEBATE.

John says I THINK THERE' A
COUPLE OF THINGS TOO.
AGAIN, ONE SNAPSHOT
DOESN'T MAKE THE CAMPAIGN
AND SO POLLS OVER TIME
REFLECT DIFFERENT THINGS.
LET'S REMEMBER THAT THIS
POLL WAS TAKEN OVER
THE WEEKEND DIRECTLY
FOLLOWING THE DEBATE.
37 PERCENT OF THOSE WHO ADMITTED
TO WATCHING THIS THING
SAW THAT THERE WERE FEW
ISSUES THAT WERE RAISED.
WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT
THIS IS THAT THE TAX ISSUE,
IN FACT, HAS SPIKED UP NOW
FOR THE VERY FIRST TIME
EVEN FROM OUR POLLING AND
IT'S EITHER BECAUSE
OF THE DEBATE OR IT'S A REAL
THING AND IT'S CATCHING ON
AND WE'RE GOING TO SEE THAT
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF IT.
THE OTHER THING REALLY GOES
TO THE CAMPAIGN ITSELF.
YOU KNOW, THE RED BOOK NOW
HAS BECOME THE STANDARD
FOR A CAMPAIGN, OR A GREEN
BOOK, OR A WHITE BOOK,
OR WHATEVER KIND OF BOOK.
LET'S REMEMBER THAT IN PAUL
EDWARDS' CASE IN MANITOBA,
THE LIBERAL LEADER
IN MANITOBA,
WHO BASICALLY WENT HEAD
TO HEAD WITH FILMON
AND THEY WERE 35, 33
GOING INTO THE CAMPAIGN.
HELD ONTO THAT RED BOOK
SO QUICKLY AND CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST TWO
WEEKS OF THE CAMPAIGN,
THAT HE EXPERIENCED A
17 POINT DROP AS WELL.
SO THE QUESTION
NOW BECOMES,
FOR THE ELECTORATE, AS
WELL THAT AS A NEW ISSUE
EMERGES, HOW DO YOU SORT
OF MOVE OUT OF WHAT YOUR
PLATFORM AS BEING SCRIPTED
FROM A BOOK AND MOVE
INTO THE NEXT PART
OF THE CAMPAIGN.

Patrick says I THINK IT'S GOING TO
BE HARDER FOR HARRIS
IN SOME RESPECTS BECAUSE
HE HAS FOCUSED
SO DIRECTLY ON
THESE TWO ISSUES.
AND THAT'S GOING TO BE AN
EASIER BRIDGE TO BOMB
AND IT'S HUGH AND I
THAT ARE GOING TO BOMB,
AREN'T WE, HUGH?

Steve says WELL WE'RE GOING TO TALK
ABOUT THAT IN SECOND.
WE'RE GOING TO ROLL
SOME TAPE IN A SECOND.
IN ABOUT A MINUTE WE'RE
GOING TO ROLL SOME TAPE,
BUT LET ME GET
THIS FROM YOU.
YOU'RE IN THE FIELD
RIGHT NOW AS WE SPEAK.
YOU CAN'T GIVE US THE
NUMBERS THAT YOU'RE COMING
UP WITH NOW BECAUSE, AS YOU
EXPLAINED TO ME BEFORE
WE WENT ON, YOU'RE SORT OF
TRACKING NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO, BUT
NOTHING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND THEREFORE WHAT YOU'VE
GOT AT THIS STAGE
OF THE GAME MAY NOT
BE REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE FINAL THING.
WHAT'S THE TREND GOING
TO SHOW, DO YOU EXPECT,
WHEN YOUR NUMBERS
COME OUT THIS WEEKEND?

John says WELL, THE WAY IN WHICH
WE DO POLLING
IS THAT WE SNAP THESE
THINGS OVER TWO NIGHTS,
SO AGAIN IT IS A SNAPSHOT
AND I THINK THE KEY THING IS

AND AGAIN WE'LL BE OUT
WITH ANOTHER ONE BEFORE
THE END OF THIS CAMPAIGN,
WHICH IS MUCH BIGGER
AND MUCH MORE DIAGNOSTIC,
BUT I THINK TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A FEW THINGS.
NUMBER 1, IS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN
EVERY ONE OF THE POLLS
LONDON, ONTARIO, WHERE
WE RELEASED A POLL
WITH
THE FREE PRESS.
THE CFRB POLL AND
THE PRE-WRIT POLL,
BASICALLY THE
TORIES HAD THE MOMENTUM.
THEY WERE UP IN EACH CASE
ON OUR SCALES AND
ON THE PREMIER THING, SO THERE
WAS SOME MOMENTUM THERE.
THE GRITS WERE FAIRLY
STATIC AND ALMOST JUST
A LITTLE BIT BELOW
THE LINE THERE.
THE NDP IN FACT WAY BACK
AND SO WHILE THE PREMIER
IN FACT MAY BE VERY POPULAR,
IT'S LIKE HAVE A RACE CAR
AND AS THE GREEN
LIGHT GOES OFF,
YOU'VE GOT THE BIG
PARACHUTE THAT OPENS
AND IT SORT OF DRAGS
THE CAR BACKWARDS,
AND SO THEY WERE REALLY
HOLDING IT DOWN.
I SUSPECT THAT WHAT
WE'RE SEEING NOW
IS SOME VOLATILITY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO
AND IF THE TRENDS HAVE
IN FACT CONTINUED,
IT'S NATURAL THAT THE GRITS
IN FACT WILL BE DOWN.
THE QUESTION WILL BE,
HOW FAR DOWN THEY ARE,
AND HOW THEY REACT TO IT
WILL THEN SET THE TONE
FOR THE REST OF
THE CAMPAIGN.
SO I SUSPECT
WE'LL SEE HARRIS
AND THE TORIES
UP A BIT.

Patrick says AND WHETHER THERE'S
ANYTHING NEW
IN THE HARRIS CAMP
FOR A SPURT,
AND I MEAN I THINK THAT'S
WHAT'S GOING TO BE
TOUGH ON THEIR CAMPAIGN.

Steve says LET'S HEAR FROM A
COUPLE OF WAGS WHO WILL
ADD THEIR TWO
CENTS ON THIS.
WE'VE HEARD THE VIEW
FROM THE INSIDE.
NOW IT'S TIME FOR A
VIEW FROM THE OUTSIDE.
LET'S HEAR FROM SOME FOLKS
WHO ARE PAID TO FOLLOW
THE LEADERS AS THEY TRAVEL
THROUGHOUT ONTARIO.
RICHARD BRENNAN OF THE
WINDSOR STAR AND JIM COYLE
OF THE OTTAWA CITIZEN
ARE HERE TO TELL US
WHAT THEY'RE SEEING.

A tape rolls. Steve sits in the park with Richard Brennan and Jim Coyle.

Richard is in his mid-forties, with short wavy graying hair and a moustache. He wears a soft green suit, white shirt and printed tie.

Jim is in his early forties, clean-shaven and with short straight brown hair. He wears khaki trousers, a blue shirt and a patterned green tie.

Steve says OKAY, GUYS, WHAT WE SEE
ON THE EVENING NEWS EVERY
NIGHT AFTER THE CAMPAIGN
STOPS OR FINISHED IS SORT
OF A NICE MINUTE, MINUTE
AND A HALF LONG RECITATION
OF WHAT'S GONE ON
DURING THE DAY,
BUT I SUSPECT WE'RE NOT
SEEING A LOT OF
WHAT'S HAPPENING BESIDE
THE BUS, BEHIND THE BUS,
OUT ON THE
CAMPAIGN TRAIL.
SO FILL US IN
ON SOME OF THAT.
RICK, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE
OTHER THINGS THAT ARE GOING ON
THAT WE'RE NOT SEEING
ON THE NIGHTLY NEWS.

A caption reads "Richard Brennan. Windsor Star."

Richard says WELL, ON THE NDP BUS,
YOU'RE NOT SEEING
THE PEOPLE GIVE THE FINGER
TO THE BUS CONSTANTLY,
OR YELLING
OBSCENITIES AT IT.
THAT'S ONE THING YOU'RE NOT
SEEING ON THE NIGHTLY NEWS.

Steve says YOU MEAN,
PASSERSBY OR DRIVING?

Richard says WELL, THESE ARE PASSERS BY,
LADY JUST PULLED UP BESIDE US
ON THE STREETCAR WHEN WE
WERE IN TORONTO THE OTHER DAY,
BECAUSE IT SAYS BOB
RAE ON THE SIDE
SO THEY THINK IT'S
THE PREMIER'S BUS.
IT'S THE MEDIA BUS.
AND IT'S ONE OF
TWO BUSES.
AND SO, THIS WOMAN - I
WON'T TELL YOU WHAT SHE SAID
BUT IT'S NOT IN FACT
VERY PLEASANT,
BUT IT HAPPENS
ALL THE TIME.
CONSTANTLY PEOPLE ROLLING
DOWN THEIR WINDOW,
YELLING WHATEVER, YOU KNOW,
BOB RAE SUCKS OR SOMETHING
OUT THE WINDOW AT
HIM, AND IT REALLY
DOES HAPPEN CONSTANTLY.
YOU CAN EXPECT IT ANYWHERE
YOU GO ACROSS THE PROVINCE.
IT'S JUST NOT TORONTO.
I MEAN, IT'S
BEEN EVERYWHERE.
DOWN THE 401.

Steve says MAYBE SHE DID KNOW
IT WAS THE MEDIA BUS.

Richard says MAYBE SHE DID.

Steve says HOW ABOUT YOU, JIM,
WHAT ARE FINDING?

The caption changes to "Jim Coyle. Ottawa Citizen."

Jim says YOU MIGHTEN SEE HOW LOOSE
AND HAPPY THE TORIES
SEEM TO BE.
THEY SEEM TO BE REALLY
COMFORTABLE WITH WHAT
SOUNDS LIKE A RIGHT
WINGER'S DREAM CAMPAIGN,
YOU KNOW?
IN ONTARIO, IT'S AMAZING
THE STUFF THAT'S SELLING
AND THE STUFF THEY
THINK IS GOING TO SELL.
I THINK THE TWO BIG
THEMES OUT THERE
ARE MISTRUST AND ANGER.
IF WE HAD A LOONIE FOR
EVERY TIME WE HEAR A VOTER
SAY TO ONE OF THE LEADERS,
WHY SHOULD WE BELIEVE YOU?
WHY SHOULD WE
BELIEVE YOU?
IT'S JUST AMAZING - IT'S
GONE BEYOND CYNICISM
OUT THERE, I
THINK, STEVE.
IT'S PEOPLE THAT HAVE SORT
OF LOST FAITH IN THE SYSTEM
AND WE HEAR THAT OVER
AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN,
AND THE TORIES, I THINK,
ARE TAPPING INTO
THAT MISTRUST AND
THAT ANGER.
IF YOU WANT TO SHUT
DOWN GOVERNMENT,
MIKE'S YOUR GUY.
HE'S GOING TO SCRAP A
LOT OF THE NDP PROGRAMS.

Steve says ARE YOU
HEARING THAT TOO?

Richard says WELL, WE CALLED HIS
PLANE AIR ANGER BECAUSE
I MEAN THAT'S LITERALLY
WHAT HE'S TAPPING IN TO.
AND JIM'S RIGHT.
I MEAN, IF THERE'S ONE
COMMON THREAD THROUGHOUT
THIS ENTIRE THING IS,
I DON'T TRUST OF THEM.

Steve says WHY NOT?

Richard says WELL, BECAUSE THEY'VE BEEN
PROMISED SO MANY THINGS
OVER THE YEARS BY VARIOUS
LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT,
VARIOUS GOVERNMENTS, AND
THEY HAVEN'T GONE THROUGH,
AND PEOPLE ARE JUST SICK
AND TIRED OF PROMISES
THAT ARE NEVER KEPT.

Steve says HARRIS IS PROMISING THE
BIGGEST TAX CUT OF THEM ALL.
DO THEY BELIEVE THIS?

Jim says I THINK PEOPLE HAVE DEEP
SUSPICIONS ABOUT WHETHER
HE CAN MAKE THE 30 PERCENT CUT
IN PROVINCIAL RATES,
BUT I THINK PEOPLE ARE
BUYING INTO A LOT
OF HIS PROMISES TO
CUT DOWN ON WELFARE.
IT'S A REAL HOT BUTTON ITEM
FOR THEM AND I THINK
THEY DON'T THINK THEY CAN
FOR FAR ENOUGH ON THIS,
THEY'RE HAVING A GOOD

TO THEIR CREDIT,
I SHOULD SAY HOW MUCH
FUN THEIR TOUR IS.
THEY'RE HAVING AN AWFUL
LOT OF FUN OUT THERE.
WE CALL IT MIKE HARRIS'S
FEED THE WORLD TOUR,
WE'RE EATING SO WELL AND
IT FEELS LIKE CLUB MED
ON WHEELS SOME DAY.
BUT THEIR WAGON MASTER
COMES DOWN THE AISLE
WITH TRAYS OF SHRIMP
AND SWEDISH MEATBALLS
THAT HE WHIPS UP ON A WOK
AT THE BACK OF THE BUS,
AND WE'VE GOT THE LUGGAGE
BINS IN THE BUS SORT
OF PLASTERED WITH
EDITORIAL CARTOONS,
MANY OF THEM
INSULTING TO MIKE,
AND THE TORIES ROLL WITH
THE PUNCHES, YOU KNOW?
THEY'RE SORT OF INTO THE
BANTER AND TRADING
THAT AND THEY'RE
HAVING A LOT OF FUN.

Steve says THE TAKE ON THE FIRST FEW
WEEKS OF THIS CAMPAIGN WAS,
WHEN IT'S GOING
TO START?
IT WAS SO BORING FOR
THE FIRST FEW WEEKS.
NOW THAT NEW POLL CAME OUT,
THE TORONTO SUN
POLL
CAME OUT, SHOWING A
MUCH TIGHTER RACE.
HAS IT GOTTEN EXCITING
OUT THERE NOW?
AND IF IT HAS, HOW DOES
IT MANIFEST ITSELF?

Richard says WELL, THE TWO PARTIES
WILL START SQUARING OFF.
I'M TOLD THAT THAT
TORONTO SUN
POLL,
THERE'S GOING TO BE OTHERS
OUT SOON TO SUPPORT THAT,
TO SAYING THE GAP
BETWEEN THE TWO,
THE LIBERALS AND THE TORIES
IS NARROWING VERY QUICKLY.
AND THAT WILL TURN
INTO, FOR A LACK OF
A BETTER EXPRESSION,
A HORSE RACE.
PEOPLE WILL START
PAYING ATTENTION THERE.
THEY'LL WONDER WHAT
THE OUTCOME IS,
AND THEN YOU'LL START
SEEING THOSE TWO START
TO GO HEAD TO HEAD
ON ISSUES.
THEIR PLANS AND IT COULD
BECOME VERY INTERESTING.

Steve says TOUGHER STRATEGY.
TOUGHER MESSAGES.
TOUGHER ADS.

Jim says OH, I THINK THEY'RE GOING
TO GET READY TO PUT
THE FANGS AND THE
DRACULA CAPE ON MIKE.
IF THE NEXT POLL SHOWS THE
SPREAD TO BE SINGLE DIGIT
AND THEY THINK THE
TORIES ARE SURGING,
THEY'RE GOING TO DO THEIR
DAMNDEST TO SHUT HIM DOWN.
AND I THINK THEY'LL HOLD
THEIR POWDER UNTIL
THE NEXT POLL, MAYBE
THE LAST WEEKEND.
I THINK YOU SHOULD GET
READY FOR MIKE
TO BE PORTRAYED AS A REAL
BEAST FROM THE RIGHT.

Steve says BUT
THEY'VE TRIED THAT.
THEY'VE TRIED MIKE THE
KNIFE AND CHAINSAW
MIKE AND ALL THAT.

Jim says NOT IN ANY SUSTAINED
AND VIGOROUS WAY.
I THINK THE FIRST COUPLE
OF WEEKS FOR THEM,
THEY WERE WALKING
ON EGGSHELLS.
THEY DIDN'T WANT TO
MAKE ANY MISTAKES.
THEY WERE
ULTRA-CAUTIOUS.
AND THEY JUST WANTED TO
MAKE SURE THE NEW DEMS
WERE DEAD IN THE WATER.
I THINK THEY'RE
CONVINCED OF THAT NOW,
AND THEY'RE VERY
WORRIED ABOUT MIKE.

Steve says THIS CAMPAIGN WAS
41 DAYS LONG OR WILL BE
WHEN IT'S ALL
OVER WITH.
AFTER 41 DAYS OF TRAIPSING
ALL OVER THE PROVINCE,
I GUESS THE
QUESTION IS,
DO YOU STILL NEED 41 DAYS
TO RUN A CAMPAIGN IN THIS
PROVINCE WHEN THE MESSAGE
THROUGH TELEVISION
GOES EVERYWHERE
INSTANTLY AND, YOU KNOW,
THERE'S PLANES AND BUSES.
YOU CAN GET EVERYWHERE
PRETTY QUICKLY.

Richard says WELL, I TOLD LYN MCLEOD THE
OTHER DAY THAT WHEN
THEY USED TO GO ACROSS
THE COUNTRY IN TRAINS
AND PEOPLE MET MORE REAL
PEOPLE BACK THEN THAN SHE HAS.
I MEAN, HER DESCRIPTIVE,
THAT'S ANOTHER STORY.
BUT NO, I DON'T
THINK SO.
I THINK TWO WEEKS WOULD DO
IT BECAUSE EVERYTHING
IS SO ELECTRONIC NOW.
PEOPLE SEE.
THEY GET THE MESSAGE.
IF THEY PUT THEIR
PLANS OUT RIGHT AWAY,
PEOPLE WOULD SEE
IT, DIGEST IT.
40 DAYS, IT'S A
THROWBACK.
IT REALLY IS.

Steve says YOU DON'T
NEED THAT MUCH TIME?

Jim says ABSOLUTELY NOT.
I WROTE SOMETHING IN
THE
CITIZEN
THE OTHER DAY
SAYING THAT ELECTION
CAMPAIGNS ARE TWO THINGS.
THEY'RE A LOT
OF FUN FOR US.
WE'RE OUT THERE RELIEVED OF
ADULT RESPONSIBILITIES
FOR 40 DAYS.
BUT THEY ARE UTTERLY ABSURD
IN THIS DAY AND AGE.
PEOPLE DON'T EVEN KICK IN
TILL HALF WAY THROUGH.
I THINK THREE WEEKS WITH A
DEBATE AFTER TWO WEEKS
IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE.
THEY'VE ALREADY BEEN TO
EVERY PART OF THE PROVINCE,
THEY'RE SORT OF RETRACING
THEIR STEPS AGAIN.

Steve says OKAY, WITH
JUST A MINUTE LEFT,
LET'S CONCLUDE ON THIS
ISSUE YOU JUST BROUGHT UP,
WHICH IS, ARE THE LEADERS
ACTUALLY MEETING REALLY
PEOPLE OUT THERE?
LYN MCLEOD, IS SHE
MEETING REAL PEOPLE?

Richard says NO.

Steve says LET ME GET
THAT SPIDER FOR YOU.

Richard says YEAH, THANK YOU.
IT'S ENTIRELY
SCRIPTED.
I MEAN, IT'S FUNNY BECAUSE
SHE'S GOOD WITH REAL,
SO-CALLED REAL PEOPLE.
SHE'S VERY GOOD
WITH, YOU KNOW,
LIKE ONE ON ONE
WITH PEOPLE,
BUT THEY'RE SO
AFRAID.
LET ME JUST PUT
IT THIS WAY.
RIDING ON THE LIBERAL
BUS IS LIKE RIDING WITH
A BUNCH OF PEOPLE
HOLDING THEIR BREATH.
WHAT ARE THEY HOLDING
THEIR BREATH ABOUT?
FEARING THAT SOMETHING
COULD BURST THEIR BUBBLE,
ANYTHING.
THEY'RE JUST
SO AFRAID.
THEY LIVE IN DREAD THAT
SOMETHING COULD JUST BREAK
THIS BUBBLE THAT THEY
FIGURE THEY'RE IN.

Steve says A GAFF BY
THE LEADER, YOU MEAN?

Richard says WELL, THEY
FIGURE, I THINK,
THE HANDLERS
FIGURE THAT.
I DON'T REALLY THINK
SHE WOULD GAFF,
QUITE FRANKLY, BUT
THEY THINK SHE WOULD,
ABSOLUTELY, AND THEY
JUST FEAR THAT MORE THAN
ANYTHING IN THE WORLD, AND
TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION,
NO, THEY DON'T
MEET REAL PEOPLE.
AS A REPORTER, IF YOU
WANT TO MEET REAL PEOPLE,
YOU JUST WALK AWAY
FROM THE CROWD
AND GO TALK TO
SOMEBODY.

Jim says I THINK THEY'RE OVERPLAYING
THE RED BOOK, AS WELL.
THEY'RE USING IT SORT OF
LIKE BIG RED GOALIE PADS
AND INSULATION.
I CALL IT THE GREAT
DIEFENBUNKER THAT SHE RUNS
TO AND HIDES IN EVERY TIME
ANYONE ASKS HER A QUESTION.
I THINK IT'S BECOME
ALMOST CARTOONISH
AND IT'S A MAGNET
FOR RIDICULE NOW.
THEY'VE GOT HER INSULATION
BEHIND THIS THING AND
I THINK PEOPLE WOULD LIKE HER
JUST TO LIGHTEN UP
AND TALK FRANKLY A
BIT MORE.
I THINK THEY'VE
SOLD HER SHORT.
I THINK SHE'S GOOD
WITH PEOPLE AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IN SMALL GROUPS,
BUT RIGHT NOW SHE LOOKS
PRETTY NERVOUS, AS DO MOST
OF THE PEOPLE AROUND HER.

Steve says IT'S
TIGHTENING UP.
SEE YOU OUT THERE
ON THE HUSTINGS.
IT'S GETTING
INTERESTING, EH?

Richard says ABSOLUTELY.

Steve says OKAY.

Back in the studio, Steve says RICHARD BRENNAN
AND JIM COYLE.
CAN I ASK YOU ABOUT THAT
COMMENT THAT HE MADE,
THE GRITS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING BACK AND HOLDING
THEIR BREATH AND JUST
PRAYING TO GET TO THE
FINISH LINE AHEAD - TRUE?

Patrick says YEAH, I MEAN, I'VE BEEN
THROUGH AN ELECTION
LIKE THAT WHERE WE CAME IN
WITH A NICE BIG LEAD AND,
I MEAN, AS I'VE
SAID TO YOU,
THERE'S NOTHING MORE
BORING THAN CRITIQUES
OF THE PROCESS OF THE
ELECTION CAMPAIGN ITSELF.
IT'S WHAT GETS ON THE TUBE
THAT COUNTS AND LET'S FACE IT,
CAMPAIGNS ARE WAR AND
THEY CAN RUN THEM HOWEVER
THEY LIKE TO GET
THE MESSAGE OUT.
AND THEY'RE DOING IT
IN A VERY TIGHT WAY.
I DON'T FEEL THAT ANYBODY
HAS TO APOLOGIZE FOR THAT.

Steve says ARE YOU GOING TO BE
SPENDING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
I MEAN, DOING
WHAT THEY SUGGESTED,
THROWING EVERY SLING AND
ARROW AND PIECE OF EQUIPMENT
YOU CAN - EVERY WEAPON

AT MIKE HARRIS
THAT YOU CAN TO TRY AND
TEAR DOWN HIS CREDIBILITY?

Hugh says I SAID SOMETHING
ABOUT THE DYNAMIC
OF THE CAMPAIGN
CHANGING.
I THINK THAT ONE OF THE
THINGS THAT'S CHANGING
IS THAT AS WE MOVE INTO THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS,
IT'S CHANGING FROM A
NUMBERS CAME WHERE PEOPLE
ARE PLAYING AROUND WITH
NUMBERS ALL THE TIME AND
WAVING AROUND THEIR BOOKS;
I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE
SOME REALLY
SERIOUS DEBATE ABOUT
THE KIND OF VISION ON
ONTARIO THAT THESE
THREE LEADERS REPRESENT.
I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A
VERY INTERESTING DEBATE.
I ALSO THINK THINGS
ARE VERY FLUID.

Patrick says IT'S AMAZING TO THINK THAT
THE MOST LIKEABLE
LEADER IS PROBABLY
GOING TO LOSE.
I MEAN NO, THE MOST
LIKEABLE LEADER APPARENTLY -
I WONDER WHAT'S GOING
TO END UP AT THE END.

Steve says WHO'S THE MOST
LIKEABLE LEADER?

Patrick says OH, NO, BUT ACCORDING
TO THE POLLS
IT'S BEEN BOB
ALL ALONG.

Steve says OH, ALL RIGHT, AND WHEN
THEY START BOMBING
YOUR BRIDGE, WHAT ARE
YOU GOING TO DO?

Jane says KEEP ON DOING THE SAME
THING THAT MIKE'S BEEN
DOING FOR THE LAST
YEAR AND A HALF,
JUST TALKING ABOUT
WHAT'S IMPORTANT.
TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT
WE WON'T HAVE MEDICARE
IN THIS PROVINCE IF WE
DON'T HAVE SOME
ECONOMIC STABILITY.
THAT WE WON'T HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE JOBS
UNLESS WE HAVE SOME
ECONOMIC STABILITY.
THAT UNLESS WE PUT MONEY
INTO THE POCKETS OF PEOPLE,
WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE
TO HANDLE ALL OF THESE
OTHERS ISSUES THAT
ARE ALSO IMPORTANT.
SO I THINK HE'S JUST
GOING TO STAY ON PLAN.

Hugh says
PUSHING BUTTONS.

Patrick says CRIME FIGHTING.

Jane says HE'S GOING TO BE
STAYING ON PLAN AND
TALKING TO THE PEOPLE.

Steve says I WANT TO SAVE THE LAST
30 SECONDS FOR YOU.
YOU WERE SCRIBBLING
NOTES THERE, MISTER WRIGHT,
ABOUT SOMETHING HERE.
TAKE THE LAST 30.

John says WELL, I THINK THIS IS
THE KEY TURNING POINT
IN THE CAMPAIGN.
I MEAN THE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE VERY,
VERY EXCITING BECAUSE OF
THE EXPECTATIONS AND
EVERY WORD AND EVERY SLIP IS
GOING TO BE EXAGGERATED
AND WE'RE GOING TO
LOOK FOR ALL THINGS.
I THINK THAT WITH GREAT
RESPECT TO THE CAMPAIGN,
YOU HIT IT ON THE HEAD.
THE NDP HAVE A LEADER WHO'S
VERY WELL LIKED BUT THE
NUMBERS FROM EVERY POLL
CONSISTENTLY SAY
IT'S JUST NOT THERE
FOR THE HAPPENING.
SO WHAT IT REALLY LOOKS AT
IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS TO
TEN DAYS IS REALLY HOW THE
TORIES AND THE GRITS
GO AT IT, AND WHAT I WAS
SCRIBBLING DOWN WAS THAT
THERE'S ABOUT 16 PERCENTAGE
POINTS OUT THERE BETWEEN
THE TWO OF THEM WHICH
THEY'RE FIGHTING OVER
FOR EITHER A MINORITY
OR MAJORITY,
AND THE REALITY RIGHT
NOW IS THAT ONE OF THEM
CAN GO AS HIGH AS
46, MEANING MIKE,
AND SHE CAN GO
AS LOW AS 32.
AND SOMEWHERE IN THAT RANGE
WE MAY END UP AT THE END
OF THE DAY WITH EITHER A
MINORITY OR MAJORITY.

Steve says LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOUR
POLL COMING OUT ON THE WEEKEND.
JOHN WRIGHT FROM THE
ANGUS REID GROUP.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

John says THANK YOU.

Steve says AND TO YOU THREE, WE'LL
SEE YOU NEXT TIME.
ON THE HUSTINGS,
AS THEY SAY.
OKAY, WE WELCOME YOUR
COMMENTS ON THE PROGRAM
SO PLEASE WRITE TO US AT:

A slate appears with a caption that reads "4th Reading. Box 200, Station Q, Toronto, Ontario. M4T 2T1"

Steve says OR REACH US
IN CYBERSPACE AT:

Another slate appears. It reads "Studio 2. Internet address: Studio 2@tvo.org."

Steve says I'M STEVE PAIKIN.
SEE YOU FOR WEEK 5 NEXT WEEK.

Fast clips from the show play as the end credits roll.

Production manager, Wally Teska.

Show producer, Alex Bystram.

Director, Allan Myers.

NABET SNTC.

A production of TVOntario. The Ontario Educational Communications Authority. 1995.

Watch: Polls