Transcript: The Butterfly Defect of the Global Economy | Sep 09, 2020

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, blue shirt, and purple tie.

A caption on screen reads "The butterfly defect of the global economy. @spaikin, @theagenda."

Steve says GLOBALIZATION WAS ALREADY GETTING PUSH BACK FROM THE LIKES OF THE CURRENT INHABITANT OF THE WHITE HOUSE... AMONG OTHERS. THEN COVID-19 REVEALED SERIOUS VULNERABILITIES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, PARTICULARLY AS SUPPLY CHAINS FACED UNPRECEDENTED DISRUPTIONS. IAN GOLDIN IS PROFESSOR OF GLOBALIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT AT OXFORD UNIVERSITY, DIRECTOR OF THE OXFORD MARTIN PROGRAM ON TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGE AND COAUTHOR OF "TERRA INCOGNITA: 100 MAPS TO SURVIVE THE NEXT 100 YEARS." AND HE JOINS US NOW FROM OXFORD, U.K.

Ian is in his sixties, clean-shaven and bald. He's wearing a black polo shirt.
A picture of his book appears briefly on screen. The cover is black and features a world map in hues of gray.

Steve continues HOW ARE YOU MANAGING?

Ian says VERY WELL I HOPE YOU ARE, TOO.

Steve says YES, INDEED. II WANT TO START FROM A QUOTE YU WROTE IN 2013 CALLED "THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT" AND HERE'S THE EXCERPT FROM THAT: THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT DRAWS ATTENTION TO THE NEW NATURE OF SYSTEMIC RISK. DUE TO GLOBALIZATION, THE BUTTERFLY OF CHANGE HAS LOST ITS INNOCENCE AND GLOBALIZATION HAS PRODUCED STRUCTURAL DEFECTS that propagate new forms of risk.
WE FACE THE REAL THREATS POSED BY SYSTEMIC RISKS. Financial crises, pandemics, CYBER AND OTHER THREATS COULD OVERWHELM THE TIES THAT BIND US. DEGLOBALIZATION AND SLOWING GROWTH WOULD BE THE CONSEQUENCES. THESE WOULD BE DISASTERS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. NOW, THAT WAS SIX YEARS AGO. DO I TAKE IT THEN THAT YOU HAVE NOT BEEN COMPLETELY CAUGHT UNAWARES BY THIS PAPADEMOS I CAN NOW?

The caption changes to "Ian Goldin. Oxford University."

Ian says NO, IT WAS INEVITABLE. THE TERRIBLE THING IS NOT THAT IT HAPPENED BUT THAT WE WERE SO ILL PREPARED FOR IT.

Steve says TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK THIS PANDEMIC HAS REVEALED HOW VULNERABLE OUR GLOBAL SYSTEM TRULY IS?

The caption changes to "More complexity, more risk."

Ian says I THINK IT'S REVEALED IT VERY STARKLY. WHAT WE'VE SEEN... AND WE SAW THIS IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE WAKE UP CALL THAT OUR HYPER CONNECTED SYSTEMS NEED... LEAD TO CAST INDICATING SHOCKS AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES. I'M A GREAT BELIEVER IN GLOBALIZATION. I THINK IT'S BROUGHT MORE OPPORTUNITY TO MORE PEOPLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANY OTHER FORCE IN HISTORY. THAT FLOWS ACROSS NATIONAL BORDERS OF IDEAS, FINANCES, GOODS OR SERVICES OR VACCINES. IDEAS LIKE ME 2 AND MANY OTHERS HAVE BROUGHT PROGRESS AROUND THE WORLD. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, OUR HYPER CONNECTED SYSTEMS ARE LEADING TO GROWING UNDER DEPENDENCE AND COMPLEXITY AND WHAT WE SAW IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN CASCADING CYBER VIRUSES AND CERTAINLY WHAT WE'VE SEEN WITH THE PANDEMIC IS THIS UNDER BELLY. THE SUPER SPREADERS OF THE GOODS LIKE AIRPORT HUBS, FINANCIAL CENTRES, CYBER CENTRES ARE ALSO SUPER PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDERS. AND WE NEED TO MANAGE THEM WHICH REQUIRES CO-ORDINATION AND THAT'S WHAT'S BEEN MISSING.

Steve says WELL, IS THE APPROPRIATE RESPONSE THEN LESS GLOBALIZATION?

The caption changes to "Ian Goldin. Co-Author, 'Terra Incognita.'"

Ian says I DON'T BELIEVE SO. IRONICALLY WHAT WE NEED IS SOME THINGS TO BE GLOBALIZED... POLITICS. WE NEED TO BE MUCH MORE JOINED UP. THE SCIENTISTS ARE DOING A GREAT JOB IN COLLABORATING MUCH MORE ON DEVELOPING VACCINES AND STOPPING PANDEMICS AND WE NEED MUCH MORE CO-ORDINATION TO STOP CASCADING FINANCIAL CRISES. AND, OF COURSE, THE OTHER UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF OUR SUCCESS LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE, IT'S GREAT THAT AT THE BILLION MORE PEOPLE HAVE ENERGY. BUT THE CONSEQUENCES CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE. IT'S GREAT THAT MORE PEOPLE ARE TAKING ANTIBIOTICS. THE CONSEQUENCE IS ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE. SO WE NEED TO WORK TOGETHER MORE. AND THAT REQUIRES NOT HIGHER WALLS AND NATIONALISM BUT MORE CO-ORDINATION, MORE POLITICAL CO-ORDINATION, MORE SKILLS, MORE SHARING OF IDEAS AND MOST OF ALL THE WILL TO STOP OUR COLLECTIVE PROBLEMS.

Steve says LET ME MAKE SURE I UNDERSTAND THIS. AS WE HAVE INCREASINGLY GLOBALIZED WE HAVE A MORE CONNECTED WORLD. AND IN DOING SO IT HAS BECOME MORE FRAGILE AND VULNERABLE AT THE SAME TIME?

The caption changes to "Watch us anytime: tvo.org, Twitter: @theagenda, Facebook Live, YouTube."

Ian says THAT'S RIGHT. IT IS MORE FRAGILE. IT IS MORE VULNERABLE. I THINK WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THAT INEVITABLY. IN THE SAME WAY WHEN WE MAKE NEW FRIENDS AND WE HAVE NEW FAMILY MEMBERS, WE BECOME MORE VULNERABLE WHEN THEY GET SHOCKED WE FEEL UPSET. SO WE ARE A MORE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM. BUT THAT HAS BROUGHT THE PROGRESS. SO WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THESE ARE THE TWO SIDES OF GLOBALIZATION. ONE IS RAPID SPREADING OF GOOD THINGS AND THE OTHER IS RAPID SPREADING OF BAD THINGS. AND WE CAN'T HAVE THE GOOD THINGS WITHOUT THE BAD THINGS. WE CAN STOP THEM AND MANAGE THEM IF WE HAVE THE WILL TO. INTERNET SYSTEMS CONNECT US WE'RE HAVING THIS CALL THROUGH T BUT WE ALSO KNOW WE CAN GET CYBER CONTAGION. WE ALSO KNOW IT SPREADS FAKE NEWS, ANTI VACCINATION AND OTHER CRAZY IDEAS. SO THESE THINGS NEED TO BE MANAGED. WE DON'T STOP THEM BY STOPPING THE INTERNET ALL TOGETHER OR BY STOPPING FINANCIAL FLOWS OR BY STOPPING ENERGY USE IN AFRICA AND ELSEWHERE WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE. WE NEED TO MANAGE IT MORE EFFECTIVELY.

Steve says LET'S DO A REAL-LIFE EXAMPLE HERE THAT I SUSPECT VIRTUALLY EVERYBODY WATCHING US RIGHT NOW WILL UNDERSTAND ALL TOO WELL. APPLE. THE APPLE COMPANY. THEY'RE IN 43 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES ON SIX DIFFERENT CONTINENTS AND ALL OF THAT HAS GOT TO SOME HOW COME TOGETHER TO MAKE THEIR PRODUCTS. HOW WOULD THEY, FOR EXAMPLE, OR ANY COMPANY THAT DEALS IN THAT WAY MAKE THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS MORE RESILIENT TO DEAL WITH THE REALITY OF TODAY?

The caption changes to "Ian Goldin, @ian_goldin."
Then, it changes again to "Shock-proofing the system."

Ian says I THINK ONE THING IS WE'VE GOT TO GET AWAY FROM JUST IN TIME TO JUST IN CASE. SO A LOT OF THESE FIRMS ARE OPERATING WITH EXTREMELY TIGHT DEADLINES WE HAVE A FACTORY UP THE ROAD HERE IN OXFORD THAT MAKES MINI BMW CARS AND THEY HAVE SOMETHING LIKE THREE HOURS OF SUPPLIES. HYPER INTERDEPENDENCE WITH HYPER SUPPLIES ALL OVER. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR APPLE AND SOME OTHER COMPANIES. BUILT UP STOCKS, BUILD UP OF CAPABILITIES WITH DIVERSE SUPPLIERS IS PART OF THAT PROCESS. AND I THINK TRYING TO MANAGE SOME OF THE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS. WHAT ARE YOU DOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MORE RESILIENT SYSTEMS? ARE YOU HELPING TO MAKE SURE THAT THE WORKERS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD ARE ADEQUATELY PROTECTED AGAINST PANDEMICS OR OTHER RISKS? WHAT ARE YOU DOING IN YOUR SYSTEMS? I THINK ONE OF THE BAD CONCENTRATION EFFECTS THAT'S HAPPENED WITH GLOBALIZATION IS THE CONCENTRATION AND HEADQUARTER BUILDINGS. I WORRY A LOT ABOUT THE LOCATIONS. ONE PLACE GOING DOWN. AND THE MORE AND MORE THERE'S THAT CONCENTRATION IN THE HEADQUARTER BUILDING, THE GREATER THE CONCENTRATION RISK FROM THAT. SO I ALSO THINK WE SHOULD BE SPREADING ASSETS. WE SHOULD BE SPREADING MANAGEMENT SKILLS. WE SHOULD BE SPREADING BACK UP SYSTEMS TO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AROUND THE WORLD. AND THAT BUILDS RESILIENCE AS WELL.

Steve says LET ME GO BACK TO JUST IN TIME FOR A SECOND. JUST-IN-TIME MANUFACTURING HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY EFFICIENT AND PROFITABLE FOR SOME SHAREHOLDERS. I WONDER IF YOU ARE ESSENTIALLY TELLING THESE COMPANIES, YOU KNOW, WE NEED YOU TO BE A LITTLE LESS EFFICIENT AND PROFITABLE RIGHT NOW IN THE INTERESTS OF INTERNATIONAL RESILIENCY.

Ian says THERE ARE TRADE OFFS AND ANY SPARE PARTS AND ANY SPARE PEOPLE COSTS MONEY AND THAT HITS THE BOTTOM LINE. IT IS ABSOLUTELY A COST THAT REQUIRES INVESTMENTS AND MORE WORKING CAPITAL TO SIGN UP WHETHER TEASE ON A BANK BALANCE MEET AND YOU ARE HOLDING MORE CAPITAL OR IN A FACTORY OR IN ANY OTHER SUPPLIER. A A HOSPITAL IN THE OXYGEN BOTTLES AND THE NUMBER OF VENTILATORS WE HAVE MOST ARE NOT USED. THAT'S MONEY TIED UP. SO THESE ARE JUDGMENT CALLS. CLEARLY WE CAN'T PROTECT OURSELVES AGAINST ALL EVENTUALITIES AND WE CERTAINLY CAN'T PROTECT OURSELVES INDEFINITELY. BUT HAVING SOME RESILIENCE... THE OTHER THING I WOULD HIGHLIGHT IS THAT WE NEED TO STOP THESE PROBLEMS UPSTREAM. THE WAY TO DEAL WITH PANDEMICS, WHICH HAVE NOW COST THE WORLD ECONOMY OVER 10 TRILLION dollars IS NOT TO TRY TO ALL HAVE THE CAPACITY IN OUR HOMES TO HAVE ENOUGH MASKS, IT'S TO STOP THE SOURCE OF THE PANDEMICS AS WELL AND THE SAME IS HAPPENING ON CLIMATE CHANGE, THE SAME IS HAPPENING ON CYBER ATTACKS. WE REALLY NEED TO STOP THESE THINGS AT THEIR ROOTS TO BECOME MORE RESILIENT AS WELL. THAT'S COMPLETELY FAILED. WE'VE NOT SEEN A WITHDRAWING OF THE WTO AND WHO RATHER INVESTMENT IN THE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION THAT IS ARE DEDICATED TO STOPPING THESE RISKS.

Steve says I HEAR WHERE YOU'RE COMING FROM. I'M JUST TRYING TO IMAGINE GOING TO A SHAREHOLDER MEETING WHERE SOME SHAREHOLDER SAYS TO MANAGEMENT: YOU KNOW WHAT? I AM TOTALLY FINE WITH THE FACT THAT WE ARE MAKING LESS MONEY AND MY DIVIDENDS ARE LOWER BECAUSE WE HAVE A MORE RESILIENT SCRAP. I'M NOT SURE THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. DO YOU?

Ian says I THINK IT DEPENDS ON THE COMPANY. I THINK LONG-TERM INVESTOR WHO IS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT RETURNS OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME ARE PREPARED TO MAKE THESE JUDGMENT CALLS. THEY REALLY CARE WHETHER THE COMPANY WILL BE AROUND IN 5 OR 10 YEARS' TIME. AND OTHER PEOPLE THAT ARE TRADING ON A DAILY BASIS CLEARLY COULDN'T CARE WHETHER THE COMPANY WOULD BE THERE IN THE MEDIUM TERM OR NOT. SO A LOT DEPENDS ON WHICH INVESTOR CLASS YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT, WHAT SORT OF COMPANY AND WHO THE OWNERS ARE. GOVERNMENTS HAVE A LOT OF SHARE HOLDING AND A LOT OF INFLUENCE SO THEY COULD REGULATE AND WE NEED TO ENSURE THAT ALL COMPANIES HAVE "X" NUMBER OF DAYS OF SUPPLIES. IN A HOSPITAL YOU MIGHT SAY WE WANT TWO MONTHS OF SUPPLIES. FOR A SUPERMARKET YOU MIGHT SAY WE WANT TWO DAYS OF SUPPLIES BUT YOU CAN'T BUILD THESE SYSTEMS IN JUST LIKE IN OUR HOMES WHERE WE HAVE REGULATIONS AROUND FIRE HAZARDS THAT COSTS A LOT OF MONEY TO BUILD IN THESE REGULATORY PROTECTIONS. WE COULD DO THAT ON OTHER DIMENSIONS AS WELL.

Steve says WELL, YOU MAY HAVE ANTICIPATED MY NEXT QUESTION IS WHICH IS THAT I UNDERSTAND THAT'S THE WAY FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR GOING FORWARD WHAT ABOUT THE PRIVATE SECTOR? IS THERE A LESSON IN HERE FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR AS WELL?

The caption changes to "Subscribe to The Agenda Podcast: tvo.org/theagenda."

Ian says I THINK ABSOLUTELY. WE HAVE TO GET OUR PROPORTIONALITIES RIGHT HERE. WE SPEND AS COUNTRIES A THOUSAND TIMES MORE ON MILITARY PROTECTION COMPARED TO PANDEMIC PROTECTION. WE ARE FIGHTING THE OLD BATTLES NOT THE FUTURE BATTLES. THE RISK THAT IS FACE US IN THE FUTURE. LOOKING AT RESOURCES IN THE MIRROR AND AL LOCATING RESOURCES IS THE FIRST BIG THING. WE NEED TO EMPOWER OUR AGENCIES, DEPARTMENTS AND GOVERNMENTS THAT ARE FIGHTING THE FUTURE THAT'S CYBER, PANDEMIC, FINANCIAL STABILITY. IT'S AREAS THAT ARE CLEARLY IN THE GREEN TRANSITION. THE SECOND THING WE NEED TO DO IS TO BE THINKING ABOUT WHERE ARE THESE RISKS LIKELY TO COME TO AND ARE WE WORKING WITH THE OTHER COUNTRIES THE COMPANIES, THE CITIES, THE COMMUNITIES THAT CAN STOP THESE PROBLEMS. WHAT ARE WE DOING AS A COUNTRY TO STOP THE NEXT PANDEMIC? WHAT ARE WE DOING TO STOP THE NEXT CYBER ATTACK. WHAT ARE WE DOING TO STOP CLIMATE CHANGE? THESE ARE PART OF BUILDINGS PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE GENERATIONS THEN I THINK WE NEED TO ASK OURSELVES AT THE CIVIL SERVICE LEVEL LOWER DOWN IS WHERE ARE WE CASCADING THIS TO? IN THE U.K. AND I DON'T KNOW IF THE SAME WAS THE SAME IN CANADA, WE WERE CAUGHT DISMALLY UNPREPARED. WE DIDN'T HAVE THE PROTECTIVE GEAR FOR DOCTORS AND NURSES IN HOSPITALS. WE DIDN'T HAVE THE BEDS. WE DIDN'T HAVE THE VENTILATORS. IT IS THAT BASIC EQUIPMENT THAT YOU THINK THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE THAT IN THE SYSTEM WE KNEW A PANDEMIC WAS INEVITABLE. I THINK THERE'S ABSOLUTELY NO EXCUSE FOR SAYING WE WEREN'T PREPARED.

Steve says YOU REMINDED ME THAT THE PREMIER OF THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO WHICH IS THE SUBNATIONAL JURISDICTION YOU'RE IN CONTACT WITH RIGHT NOW. HIS NAME IS DOUG FORD. AND IF I HAVE HEARD HIM SAY IT ONCE IT'S BEEN 25 TIMES THAT THIS PROVINCE WILL NEVER AGAIN BE CAUGHT IN A SITUATION WHERE WE ARE NOT ABLE TO MANUFACTURE THE STUFF WE NEED TO KEEP OUR POPULATION ALIVE. AND I WONDER WHETHER SOME OF THE SOLUTION HERE IS TO BE LESS RELIANT OR OTHER GLOBAL PARTNERS AND DO MORE MANUFACTURING IN YOUR JURISDICTION.

Ian says THAT'S A BIG TRADE OFF. I THINK ONE NEEDS TO THINK ABOUT IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. WHAT SWITZERLAND HAS DECIDED THAT THEY WILL STOCK PILE THREE MONTHS OF SUPPLY ON CERTAIN THINGS. THEY DON'T THINK AT THE CAN PRODUCE ANYTHING. AND I THINK STOCK PILE SOMETHING A VERY SENSIBLE STRATEGY. GUARANTEEING THE SUPPLIES. I DON'T THINK PRODUCING EVERYTHING YOU NEED IN ANY JURISDICTION... UNLESS YOU ARE AN ENORMOUS COUNTRY LIKE CHINA OR THE U.S... REALLY MAKES SENSE AND EVEN FOR THEM IT MIGHT NOT MAKE SENSE. CERTAINLY IF YOU ARE A VERY SMALL COUNTRY, I THINK THE SUCK RELATIVELY SMALL AND THE MUCH SMALLER COUNTRIES YOU REALLY CAN'T PRODUCE EVERYTHING ELSE IT WOULD BE ENORMOUSLY EXPENSIVE. YOU WOULD HAVE TO HAVE TARIFFS. YOU WOULD DISTORT YOUR LOCAL BUSINESSES AND YOU WOULDN'T BE PLAYING TO THE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES OF WHAT YOU DO MOST EFFECTIVELY. THAT'S ONE STRATEGY. I THINK A BETTER STRATEGY IS NOT ONLY ABOUT PRODUCING EVERYTHING DOMESTICALLY BUT ENSURING THAT YOU HAVE THE ESSENTIALS IN SOME SORT OF STRUCTURE LIKE A COUNTRY LIKE SWITZERLAND IS DOING.

Steve says AS WE CONSIDER OUR GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY LET ME PUT A LINE TO YOU THAT YOU WROTE ONES UPON A TIME. GLOBALIZATION HAS LED TO REVOLUTIONARY CHANGES THAT HAVE OUT STRIPPED THE SLOWER ADVANCEMENT OF INSTITUTIONS AMPLIFY ON THAT IF YOU WOULD.

The caption changes to "Global institutions for the 21st Century."

Ian says WELL, GLOBALIZATION HAS REALLY TURBO CHARGED THE WORLD ECONOMY, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION. THAT'S THE REASON WE ARE LIVING IN THE MOST RAPID PERIOD OF HUMAN HISTORY IS BECAUSE THESE FLOWS ARE COMING FROM MORE AND MORE PLACES WE ARE LEARNING MORE QUICKLY. WE ARE THROWING OUT OLD IDEAS TAKING ON NEW IDEAS QUICKLY AS A GLOBAL COMMUNITY. THAT'S THE REASON WHY THERE'S BEEN THE MOST RAPID REDUCTION AND INCREASE IN LIFE EXPECTANCIES AND OVERCOMING OF MANY BIG PROBLEMS. SO THAT'S WHY I BELIEVE IN GLOBALIZATION. IT'S BROUGHT MORE PROGRESS MORE QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME, WHOLE TECHNOLOGICAL AND OTHER REVOLUTIONS ARE HAPPENING, POLITICS IS AT BEST EVOLUTIONARY. SOME OF US MIGHT EVEN FEEL IT'S GOING BACKWARDS IN SOME RESPECT. AND SO THAT'S A MAJOR, MAJOR GULF THAT'S HAPPENING. POLITICS IS ESSENTIALLY NATIONAL AND WESTPHALIAN WORKING LONE ON LOCAL MODELS OF RESPONSIBILITY. AND THE THING THAT WILL MAP TO ALL OF OUR FUTURES WHEREVER WE ARE IN THE WORLD EVEN IN THE MIGHTEST COUNTRIES IS SOMEWHERE ELSE. IF IT'S CLIMATE CHANGE, PANDEMIC, NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON, ANTIBODY RESISTANCE WHATEVER IT'S GOING TO BE IT'S VERY UNLIKELY WE'LL CREATE IT ALONE AND THAT WE WILL EITHER BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE PROBLEM OR THE SOLUTION. THE ANSWER IS WE HAVE TO WORK WITH OTHERS TO STOP THESE PROBLEMS. SO THE SCARY THING AND THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS ME AWAKE IS NOT THAT THESE THINGS ARE LAPPING BUT THAT WE WEREN'T REACTING IN A WAY. THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE. MOST OF THESE PROBLEMS WHETHER THEY'RE CLIMATE CHANGE, WHETHER THEY'RE PANDEMICS CAN BE SOLVES. THERE'S ENOUGH SMART PEOPLE AROUND ENOUGH TECHNOLOGIES AROUND WE CAN STOP THESE THINGS AT SOURCE. THE QUESTION IS: DO WE HAVE THE POLITICAL WILL AND THEN CREE CREATE THE POLITICAL WILL TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. IT'S THAT POLITICS. IT'S THAT NATIONALISM. IT'S THAT WE'VE GOT TO DO THINGS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL WHEN WE KNOW OUR FUTURES ARE GOING TO BE DETERMINED AT THE SUPER NATIONAL LEVEL. THAT'S TROUBLING.

Steve says THE ONE GLOBAL INSTITUTION THAT I SUSPECT EVERYONE KNOWS A LOT BETTER TODAY THAN THEY DID A YEAR AGO IS THE W.H.O., THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. AND OUR FUTURE IS HIGHLY CONNECTED WITH THAT GROUP. I WONDER WHETHER IN HINDSIGHT YOU THINK THEY WERE UP TO THE TASK OF MANAGING THIS PANDEMIC.

Ian says WELL, MOST PROBLEMS DON'T REQUIRE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. EVEN CLIMATE CHANGE. SOMETHING LIKE A DOZEN COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 80 percent OF EMISSIONS. WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT A PROBLEM LIKE FINANCIAL CRISES OR CYBER ATTACKS, THERE'S A SMALL NUMBER OF COUNTRY THAT IS ARE THE SOURCE OF MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS AND THE PROBLEMS OF THE PROBLEM WITH PANDEMICS IS THEY CAN COME FROM RICH OR POOR COUNTRIES. THAT'S WHY YOU DO NEED A GLOBAL INSTITUTION. THE WHO, THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION HAS NOT BEEN FITTED FOR PURPOSE. BUT I DON'T BLAME AND BEAT UP ON ON THE ORGANIZATION. THEY'RE OWNED BY US. BY THE SHAREHOLDERS. THE U.S. IS THE BIGGEST PLAYER BY FAR IN THE W.H.O. IT HAS THE MOST SCIENTISTS GIVEN THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION. WE STAR OF THEM AS A GLOBAL COMMUNITY OF THE MANDATES OF REFORM. WE'VE GOT TO INSIST ON REFORMS. IT'S LIKE THE SHAREHOLDERS OF A COMPANY. IF THE BOARD IS A MESS THE SHAREHOLDERS BEING HAVE TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY. THE SHAREHOLDERS OF THE INSTITUTIONS IS THE COUNTRIES, THE BIGGEST COUNTRIES IN PARTICULAR. IF YOU WHAT I THE W.H.O. ISN'T FIT FOR PURPOSE WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IS WE HAVEN'T GIVEN THEM THE MANDATE, THE MONEY OR INSISTED ON THE REFORMS NECESSARY. WE NEED TO LOOK TO OURSELVES THERE. IS NO ALTERNATIVE OTHER THAN EMPOWERING A GLOBAL INSTITUTION TO STOP GLOBAL PANDEMICS. EITHER WE FIX AND MAKE IT FITTED FOR PURPOSE OR WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE AND POSSIBLY MORE DEADLY PANDEMICS IN THE FUTURE.

Steve says LET ME PUSH BACK ON THAT. YOU DID MENTION A MOMENT AGO THAT POLITICS DOES REAR ITS UGLY HEAD DURING THE COURSE OF THIS. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT CHINA PLAY MANY PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT CHINA PLAY AS DISPROPORTIONATE INFLUENCE IN W.H.O. MAYBE THE W.H.O. WAS HAM-FISTED WHEN THIS STARTED BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT STARTED. MAYBE A COALITION OF WILLING, LIKE MINDED WESTERN NATIONS MAY HAVE BEEN A WAY TO HANDLE THIS THING AS OPPOSE TO A W.H.O. WHO MAY HAVE BEEN NEGATIVELY INFLUENCE BY CHINA. WHAT DO YOU SAY?

Ian says I THINK COALITIONS CAN SOLVE MANY PROBLEMS. I'M A GREAT BELIEVER IN NO-TEL AS A FORCE. THERE ARE MANY THINGS THAT CAN BE DONE BUT NOT PANDEMIC MANAGEMENT. ONCE THE PANDEMIC STARTS. IT MIGHT BE SHINE, IT MIGHT BE THE U.S., IT MIGHT BE IN LIBERIA OR SOMEWHERE IN AFRICA. IT SPREADING IN 36 HOURS THROUGH AIRPORT HUBS. SO YOU NEED A CAPACITY ON THE GROUND TO STOP IT. YOU NEED CONVERSATION WITH THE COUNTRY AND YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO SAY WE DON'T THINK CHINESE GOING TO BE A GOOD PARTNER IN THE W.H.O., THEY'RE EXCLUDED FROM THE ORGANIZATION TO STOP PANDEMICS HOW'S THAT GOING TO WORK? I THINK WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THAT EVERYONE'S IN IT. NOW, THAT MEANS IT'S GOING TO HAVE TO BE OPERATIVE. CHINA KNOWS AND IS DEPENDENT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. I DON'T THINK CHINA WANTS ANOTHER PANDEMIC FOR ITSELF OR FOR THE WORLD. AND I THINK WHAT WE'LL GET OUT OF THIS IS THE CAPACITY... IF THE U.S. SAYS WE ARE NOT GOING TO PLAY WITH THIS INSTITUTION WE WANT TO CREATE ANOTHER ONE I JUST DON'T SEE HOW THAT WOULD WORKS. SO MY OWN VIEW IS YES. THEY'RE GOING TO BE SOME REALLY TOUGH CONVERSATIONS YOU HAVE TO HAVE SURVEILLANCE EVERYWHERE IN REAL-TIME AND YOU HAVE TO LET S.W.A.T. TEAMS GO IN THERE AND STOP THEM AND WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY AND CAPABILITY TO DO THAT. THAT'S PART OF THE DEAL. THE IRONY AND IF YOU SPEAK TO THE EXPERTS IN THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, THE COMPLAINT EVERYONE HAS HAD OVER THE LAST YEARS IS THAT IT'S BEEN TOO U.S.-DOMINATED. THE THING THAT IT'S CHINA-DOMINATED PEOPLE IN THE ORGANIZATION SAY THERE ARE MANY MORE CHINESE SCIENTISTS IN THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION AND... MANY MORE U.S. SCIENTISTS THAN CHINESE SCIENTISTS. THERE IS A CDC IN CHINA. SO THERE HAS BEEN MUCH MORE COOPERATION THAN HAS BEEN MADE OUT.

Steve says IN OUR LAST 30 SECONDS HERE, PROFESSOR LET'S HE HAD UP ON THIS: I HAVE INTERVIEWED OTHER PEOPLE IN THE PROGRAM WHO HAVE SAID THIS PANDEMIC HAS PROVIDED EVIDENCE AND AMMUNITION TO THOSE NATIONALIST FORCES, REJECTIONIST FORCES THAT OPPOSE GLOBALIZATION AND ADVOCATE FOR MORE RETREATING INWARDS. WHAT WOULD YOU SAY TO THEM?

The caption changes to "Retreating inwards."

Ian says I WOULD SAY THERE'S NO WALL HIGH ENOUGH THAT'S GOING TO PROTECT YOU. NO COUNTRY CAN BE AN ISLAND. EVEN THE RICHEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD LIKE THE U.S.A. CLIMATE CHANGE IS GOING TO TAKE OUT MIAMI THROUGH OCEAN RISE. PANDEMICS WILL AFFECT PEOPLE DESPERATELY. THE JOBS OF THE FUTURE, THE INVESTMENT OF THE FUTURE, THE SHARED IDEAS AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESS OF THE FUTURE BE THEY VACCINES OR OTHERS, ALL THE OPPORTUNITIES COME FROM SHARING WITH OTHERS. BUT SO DO THE RISKS. AND UNLESS ONE MANAGES BOTH, ONE HAS NO FUTURE AS A COUNTRY. SO I BELIEVE THAT THE IDEA THAT YOU CAN SOME HOW BUILD A WALL, BUILD AN ISLAND AND BE HAPPY FOREVER AFTER IS EXTREMELY NAIVE NOT ONLY BECAUSE YOU WANT PROGRESS. THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT'S TRYING TO DO THIS IS NORTH KOREA AND YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENS THERE WHEN YOU TRY TO ISOLATE YOURSELF. IT'S NOT GOING TO LEAD TO PROGRESS IN YOUR OWN COUNTRY AND IT'S GOING TO LEAD TO YOU BEING OVERWHELMED BY PROBLEMS THAT COME FROM ELSEWHERE SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER.

The caption changes to "Producer: Eric Bombicino, @ebombicino."

Steve says THAT'S OXFORD UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR Dr. IAN GOLDIN. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TONIGHT STAY SAFE.

Ian says I HOPE YOU ENJOY THE BOOK "TERRA INCOGNITA."

Steve says AMEN... YES LET'S PLUG THAT, I'M HAPPY TO DO THAT. "100 MAPS TO SURVIVE THE NEXT 100 YEARS."

Ian says ROB MUGGER MY CO-AUTHOR IS CANADIAN.

Steve says ALL THE REASON WE SHOULD BUY IT YOU BE WELL, SIR.

Ian says THANK YOU.

Watch: The Butterfly Defect of the Global Economy