Transcript: 2020: A World Divided | Jan 09, 2020

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, white shirt, and gray plaid tie.

A caption on screen reads "2020: A divided world. @spaikin, @theagenda."

Steve says 2019 MARKED A YEAR OF
PROTEST, POWER SHIFTS, AND
INCREASING INTERNATIONAL
DISPUTES.
AS TENSIONS HEIGHTEN WITH IRAN
AFTER THE U.S. ASSASSINATION OF
TOP IRANIAN GENERAL QASSEM
SOLEIMANI, CONTINUING DISRUPTION
IN THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER
APPEARS TO BE THE NEW NORMAL.
JOINING US NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE
COUNTRIES THEY OBSERVED IN 2019
AND WHAT THEY EXPECT WILL PLAY
OUT ACROSS THE GLOBE IN 2020:
WE WELCOME:
ANN FITZ-GERALD, DIRECTOR OF THE
BALSILLIE SCHOOL OF
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND
PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY AT WILFRID LAURIER UNIVERSITY...

Ann is in her forties, with long straight blond hair. She's wearing a black blazer and a thin silver pendant necklace.

Steve continues AND FORMER POSTMEDIA FOREIGN
CORRESPONDENT MATTHEW FISHER,
NOW A FELLOW AT THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL AFFAIRS INSTITUTE.
ONCE UPON A TIME, CANADA'S
LONGEST SERVING FOREIGN
CORRESPONDENT.

Matthew is in his sixties, clean-shaven, with receding gray hair. He's wearing a black suit, pale pink shirt and spotted red tie.

Steve continues IT'S GREAT TO HAVE BOTH OF YOU
HERE.
YOU FOR YOUR ANNUAL VISIT; AND
YOU FOR THE FIRST TIME.
LOVELY TO HAVE YOU HERE.
LET'S PUT YOU TO WORK RIGHT
AWAY, ANN.
THE U.S. MILITARY KILLS THIS
VERY PROMINENT IRANIAN GENERAL.
IRAN RESPONDS WITH SOME
ATTACKS... NOBODY KILLED,
THANKFULLY... ON THE AMERICAN
SIDE.
TELL US THIS: WHAT, IN YOUR
VIEW, HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ACHIEVED
WITH THIS BACK AND FORTH?

The caption changes to "Ann Fitz-Gerald. Balsillie School of International Affairs."

Ann says HMM, WELL, THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT IT,
STEVE, THAT THIS GUY WAS A BAD
GUY, AND HE COMMITTED ATROCITIES
OF ALL SORTS IN DIFFERENT PARTS
OF THE WORLD, CONDUCTED HIMSELF
IN A VERY INHUMAN WAY.
SO, YEAH, INTERESTING HOW
THINGS...

The caption changes to "All eyes on Iran."

Steve says YOU DON'T POWER PLAY
HIS DEPARTURE.

The caption changes to "Ann Fitz-Gerald. Wilfried Laurier University."

Ann says NO.
AND I DON'T THINK MANY PEOPLE
ARE, INCLUDING A LOT OF IRANIANS
AS WELL.
I THINK THE COUNTER-ATTACK WAS A
BIT SURPRISING.
I THINK WE WERE GEARING UP FOR
PERHAPS A COLLECTION OF
COUNTER-MEASURES, SOME
COORDINATED, SOME CONVENIENT,
SOME PERHAPS NOT EVEN AIMED AT
THE UNITED STATES.
SO WHAT WE SAW WAS, YOU KNOW,
FOR ME SLIGHTLY SURPRISING.

Steve says INASMUCH AS IT WAS
PROPORTIONAL AS OPPOSED TO AN
OVERREACTION?

Ann says YEAH.
AND THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT WAS
AT PAINS TO SHOW HOW MUCH IT WAS
ABIDING BY INTERNATIONAL LAW,
AND I THINK, YOU KNOW,
THANKFULLY, THEY WERE GETTING
SOME GOOD ADVICE ON THAT AREA.
BUT I WILL JUST SAY THAT, YOU
KNOW, I SPECULATE THAT... I
COULD SPECULATE THAT THERE WAS
SOME DUAL TRACK COMMUNICATION
GOING ON BETWEEN BOTH
GOVERNMENTS.

Steve says SO CHEST-THUMPING IN
PUBLIC BUT BEHIND THE SCENES
PRIVATELY...

Ann says SOMETHING CEREMONIAL.

Steve says I THINK THAT ANSWER
PRESUPPOSES, MATTHEW, THAT THIS
IS ESSENTIALLY OVER.
DO YOU THINK IT IS?

The caption changes to "Matthew Fisher. Canadian Global Affairs Institute."

Matthew says I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT THINK IT'S OVER.
I KNOW IN THE LAST 48 HOURS...
OR 36 HOURS, THERE'S BEEN THIS
GREAT COLLECTIVE SIGH OF RELIEF,
AND IT IS A GOOD THING, THAT
RIGHT NOW, THINGS HAVE NOT TAKEN
OFF.
BUT ONLY 72 HOURS AGO, THE
IRANIAN PARLIAMENT, THEY WERE UP
AND SCREAMING "DEATH TO
AMERICA"...

Steve says THEY HAVE DONE THAT
BEFORE.

Matthew says THEY HAVE DONE THAT BEFORE,
FAMOUSLY, OF COURSE, DURING THE
HOSTAGE INCIDENT WITH THE
EMBASSY BACK IN THE LATE...

Steve says FORTY YEARS AGO.

Matthew says FORTY YEARS AGO RIGHT NOW.
FORTY YEARS AGO RIGHT NOW.
BUT THERE ARE OTHER THINGS STILL
GOING ON.
THERE ARE SOME IRANIAN
COMMANDERS WHO, IN THE LAST 24
HOURS, HAVE DEMANDED STRONGER
ACTION.
ON THE AMERICAN SIDE, THE
AMERICANS ARE STILL MOVING
MILITARY ASSETS INTO THE REGION.
THEY BROUGHT ANOTHER SIX B-52
BOMBERS TO DIEGO GARCIA IS A
SIGN YESTERDAY OF THEIR WILL,
THEY BROUGHT ABOUT 8,000 TROOPS.
AND I DON'T THINK IT'S OVER.
WHAT I THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN,
THOUGH, IS IT'S GOING TO PLAY
OUT OVER A LONG TIME, AND WE
WON'T MAYBE DIRECTLY CONNECT IT
TO THIS.
I THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
GREATER RISKS FOR ISRAEL, FROM
HEZBOLLAH IN THE COMING MONTHS.
I THINK THAT THERE'S A CHANCE OF
TERRORIST ATTACKS IN EUROPE.
I DON'T THINK ANY OF THAT HAS
REALLY DISAPPEARED.
BUT THE IRANIANS, I THINK, DID
BLINK A LITTLE BIT IN THE LAST
DAY OR TWO, BECAUSE NOT ONLY DID
THE AMERICANS FINALLY MAKE GOOD
ON A THREAT THAT WE'VE HEARD
FROM SO MANY AMERICAN
PRESIDENTS, TRUMP FINALLY DID
IT, BUT ALSO, THEY COULD SEE THE
AMERICAN MILITARY ASSETS MOVING.

Steve says WELL, WHEN YOU SEE
ONE SIDE ASSASSINATE A
HIGH-PROFILE PERSON ON THE OTHER
SIDE, AND THE OTHER SIDE RESPOND
BY FIRING ROCKETS, ONE COULD
INFER THAT THERE IS A STAIN OF
WAR IN EFFECT BETWEEN THESE TWO
COUNTRIES; WOULD YOU SEE IT THAT WAY?

Ann says WELL, I
THINK PERCEPTIONS ARE EVERYTHING
AT THE MOMENT.
AND I AGREE WITH MATTHEW THAT
THIS ISN'T OVER YET.
IT COULD PLAY OUT IN A SERIES OF
WAY.
I ALSO THINK WE MIGHT SEE SOME
DISINTEGRATION ACROSS THE
IRANIAN GOVERNMENT AS WELL.

Steve says MEANING WHAT?

The caption changes to "Ann Fitz-Gerald, @afitz3105."

Ann says SOME WILL WANT TO SEE THIS
HARSH RESPONSE THAT WAS TOUTED
FOLLOWED THROUGH.
YOU KNOW, SOME VERY DARK WORDS
WERE USED, NOT ONLY AT GENERAL
SOLEIMANI'S FUNERAL BUT ALSO
FROM THE IRANIAN FOREIGN
MINISTER HIMSELF, AND, YOU KNOW,
TO SEE SUCH A DISPROPORTIONAL
RESPONSE COMPARED TO THOSE HARSH
WORDS WAS, TO ME, A REAL
INDICATION THAT SOME DUAL-TRACK
COMMUNICATION HAD TAKEN PLACE.

Matthew says BUT
HEZBOLLAH HAS BEEN TALKING
TOUGHER.
THE SHIA MILITIAS, AL SADR HAS
APPARENTLY SAID IN BAGHDAD OR
SADR CITY, STAND DOWN A BIT.
BUT I'VE MET THOSE MILITIAS A
NUMBER OF TIMES IN BAGHDAD.
THEY WILL NOT BE HAPPY.
AND THEY'RE NOT TOTALLY UNDER
THE THUMB OF TEHRAN.

Steve says SO THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE PROXIES MAY TAKE OVER
THE FIGHT FROM HERE.

The caption changes to "Matthew Fisher, @mfisheroverseas."

Matthew says YES.
AND THERE COULD BE GREATER
PROBLEMS, OF COURSE, BETWEEN THE
SUNNIS AND THE SHIAS IN IRAQ.
THAT GOVERNMENT ALREADY IS SO
PRECARIOUS ANYWAY.
ANYTHING CAN CAUSE UPHEAVAL, AND
YOU GET INTO WHAT NATO MIGHT DO
OR NOT DO IN IRAQ.
THE SHIAS HAVE A VOTE, IN A WAY,
THERE, AND THEY SIT ON TOP OF A
LOT OF THE OIL WEALTH IN IRAQ.
SO THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OTHER
ACTORS EVEN BEYOND IRAN THAT ARE
SHIA THAT WILL NOT BE HAPPY
ABOUT THIS BECAUSE THEIR GREAT
SPONSOR WAS SOLEIMANI.
I MEAN, HE WAS EVERYTHING TO
THEM.

The caption changes to "Connect with us: Twitter: @theagenda; Facebook, agendaconnect@tvo.org, Instagram."

Steve says ANN, LET'S JUST
UNDERSTAND THIS, THOUGH.
DONALD TRUMP CAME INTO POWER
THREE YEARS AGO, PLEDGING, AMONG
OTHER THINGS, TO GET AMERICA OUT
OF THE ENTANGLEMENTS IN THE
MIDDLE EAST AND AFGHANISTAN AND,
YOU KNOW, JUST TO... IN HIS
VIEW, AMERICA WAS FAR TOO
OVERSTRETCHED AND HE WANTED SOME
RETRENCHMENT ON THAT FRONT.
HE'S NOW VERY MUCH GOTTEN
AMERICA INVOLVED IN A BELLICOSE
ACTIVITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN
THE PERSIAN GULF.
ANY INCONSISTENCY HERE, IN YOUR
VIEW?

Ann says I THINK
THERE'S LOTS OF INCONSISTENCIES
GOING ON AT THE MOMENT WITH
WORDS AND ACTIONS.
I THINK... YOU KNOW, LET'S BE
VERY CLEAR.
AMERICA THAT IS STRATEGIC
INTERESTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE
EAST.
I THINK DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN
VERY MUCH SPEAKING TO HIS BASE,
HAS ONE THING AT THE FOREFRONT
OF HIS MIND, AND THAT'S GETTING
RE-ELECTED.
SO, YES, IT'S A DRAW-DOWN, BUT
IT'S NOT AN ABANDONMENT.
I THINK THE AMERICANS, QUITE
UNDERSTANDABLY, WANT EUROPEAN
PARTNERS TO STUMP UP AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY POST-NATO SUMMIT,
WHERE THAT WAS AN ISSUE UNDER
DISCUSSION.
SO I THINK, STEVE, THAT IT'S A
COMBINATION OF A GRADUAL
DRAW-DOWN, SPEAKING TO THE BASE,
BUT HAVING THIS ERRATIC FORM OF
COMMUNICATION THAT'S LEAVING
PEOPLE VERY CONFUSED.
I MEAN, TALKING ABOUT CULTURAL
HERITAGE TARGETS, AS ONE
EXAMPLE.

Steve says THAT HE WOULD BOMB.

Ann says HE'S GONE TO PAINS TO TALK
ABOUT THE WONDERFUL IRANIAN
PEOPLE, AND THEN THE AWFUL
CORRUPT AND BRUTAL REGIME, AND
THAT, YOU KNOW, NO LONGER DRAWS
A DISTINCTION BETWEEN THOSE TWO
THINGS WHEN HE TALKS ABOUT
TARGETING CULTURAL SITES.
ANOTHER, YOU KNOW... WHEN
SOMEBODY TAKES PRESIDENTIAL
NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONS, YOU
NEED THE TRUST OF THE PEOPLE,
CONGRESS, AND ALSO ALLIES.
AND I THINK IT'S THE CONDUCT
THAT PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT,
NOT SO MUCH THE OUTCOME OF
WHAT'S HAPPENED OVER THE PAST...

Matthew says AND WITH
THE ALLIES.
WE'VE NOT... THERE'S NO
COMMUNICATION WITH THE ALLIES,
AND YET THE FIRST THING THAT THE
PRESIDENT DOES AFTERWARDS IS
SAYS HE WANTS MORE FROM THE
ALLIES, THE ALLIES THAT 48 HOURS
EARLIER WERE NOT WORTH EVEN
TALKING TO.

Steve says LET'S GO UP TO
30,000 FEET HERE FOR A SECOND
AND TAKE THE MICROSCOPE OFF IRAN
AND LOOK AT THE WORLD WRIT
LARGE.
AS YOU LOOK BACK AT THE EVENTS
OF 2019, CAN YOU GIVE US... CAN
YOU GIVE US A KIND OF A HEADLINE
OF WHAT THE BIG OVERARCHING
TREND IN THE WORLD, IN TERMS OF
GEOPOLITICS WAS?

The caption changes to "Troubling trends."

Ann says I WOULD
SAY CHAOTIC AND UNPREDICTABLE AS
USUAL.
AS TAYLOR SAID, THE DEFINITION
OF HISTORY IS ONE DARN THING
AFTER ANOTHER.
SO I THINK WHAT HAPPENED IN 2019
WAS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
DEFINITION OF HISTORY.

Steve says IT WAS ONE DARN
THING AFTER ANOTHER, WASN'T IT?

Matthew says IT WAS, AND
WE HAVE ALL THESE POPULIST
PEOPLE MOVEMENTS.
I DON'T THINK THEY'RE GOING TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH AT THE END OF THE
DAY, BUT IN THESE COUNTRIES
WHERE THESE PROTESTS ARE TAKING
PLACE, IN LATIN AMERICA, IN THE
MIDDLE EAST, AND IN ASIA,
THEY'RE VERY IMPORTANT WITHIN
THESE COUNTRIES.
I DON'T SEE IT AS ACHIEVING A
WHOLE LOT, BUT THAT IS ONE OF
THE THINGS THAT'S UNPREDICTABLE.
WE COULDN'T HAVE... I MEAN,
VENEZUELA AND HONG KONG, MAYBE
YOU COULD HAVE PREDICTED.
BUT MANY OF THE OTHER
DEMONSTRATIONS, YOU COULD NOT
HAVE REALLY FORESEEN.
THE AMERICAN ACTIONS IN SYRIA
TOO, QUITE ASIDE FROM THE
IRAN-IRAQ EQUATION, VERY ODD.
EVERYTHING THAT WENT ON THERE.
AMERICA DISENGAGING AND THEN
RE-ENGAGING, AND WE DON'T QUITE
KNOW WHERE THEY'RE AT NOW, BUT
THAT PROVIDED AN OPENING FOR
RUSSIA.
AND THEN, OF COURSE, CHINA
CONTINUES TO...

Steve says HOLD OFF ON CHINA.
I'M GOING TO COME BACK TO CHINA
IN A SECOND.
I WANTED TO PICK UP ON YOUR
COMMENTS ABOUT... YOU KNOW,
THERE ARE MANY COUNTRIES IN THE
WORLD TODAY THAT ARE MOVING
TOWARDS ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACIES
WHICH IS A VERY DISAPPOINTING
TREND FOR THOSE WHO BELIEVE IN
WESTERN LIBERAL-STYLE
DEMOCRACIES, AND WE HAPPEN TO BE
SPEAKING TODAY FROM ONE OF THE
VERY FEW LIBERAL DEMOCRACIES IN
THIS WORLD WHERE THERE IS NOT A
VERY FORCEFUL POPULIST MOVEMENT
CHAMPING AT THE BIT TO TAKE
OVER.
AND I GUESS I WANT TO KNOW FROM
YOU, ANN, HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO
YOU THINK THIS COUNTRY HAS ON
THE WORLD STAGE TODAY?
NOT POWER, BUT INFLUENCE.

The caption changes to "Oh, Canada."

Ann says WELL, I
THINK, IF YOU DRAW A DISTINCTION
BETWEEN STRATEGIC-LEVEL
INFLUENCE AND INFLUENCE AT THE
FUNCTIONAL LEVEL, THEN, YOU
KNOW, WE DO HAVE INFLUENCE AT
THE LATTER LEVEL.
I'VE JUST RETURNED TO CANADA
RECENTLY AFTER WORKING IN ALL
SORTS OF PARTS OF THE WORLD FOR
MANY YEARS...

Steve says WE SHOULD SAY.
YOU'VE BEEN ABROAD FOR LIKE 25
YEARS OR SOMETHING.

Ann says YEAH.

Steve says AND YOU'VE JUST COME
BACK A FEW MONTHS AGO.

Ann says AND I'M DELIGHTED TO BE BACK.

Steve says HOW ARE WE PLAYING
OUT THERE?

Ann says WE'RE LIKED.
WE'RE LIKED.
WE'RE DOING WELL OUT THERE.
I ALWAYS ARGUE THAT THE STRENGTH
OF MY POSITION AND THE EQUITY IN
THE WORK THAT I DO THERE IS
BASED ON THE FACT THAT I AM
CANADIAN AND I BRING A CANADIAN
APPROACH, BUT I ALSO BRING A
NON-GOVERNMENT APPROACH AS AN
ACADEMIC AS WELL.
SO I'M NOT SEEN TO BE WEARING A
CLOAK.
BUT PEOPLE ALWAYS ASK ME ABOUT
OUR IMMIGRATION STRATEGY, OUR
ABILITY AS A COUNTRY TO MANAGE
FEDERALISM, SOMETHING WHICH
OTHERS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING
WITH...

Steve says THAT'S WHAT WE DO
HERE THOUGH.
WHAT DO THEY LIKE ABOUT WHAT WE
DO OUT THERE?

Ann says OUR DIPLOMACY.
WELL, AND THIS IS WHERE I THINK
WE COULD IMPROVE MORE, BECAUSE I
THINK THEY'D LIKE TO HEAR MORE
ABOUT WHAT WE DO THAT'S SO
SUCCESSFUL, HOW WE KEPT RELATIVE
ECONOMIC STABILITY THROUGH
GLOBALLY ECONOMIC TUMULTUOUS
TIMES.
OUR MILITARY.
OUR MILITARY IS AN INSTITUTION
THAT WE SHOULD BE TERRIBLY PROUD
OF HERE.
IT DOES WONDERFUL THINGS ABROAD.
I WORRY SOMETIMES THAT THEY'RE
EXPECTED TO DO A LOT MORE THAN
BE AN ENABLER, WHICH IS WHAT THE
MILITARY IS ALL ABOUT.

The caption changes to "Watch us anytime: tvo.org, Twitter: @theagenda, Facebook Live, YouTube."

Steve says YOUR FRIEND BESIDE
YOU HAS A VERY FAMOUS QUOTE,
WHICH IS: THERE IS NO COUNTRY IN
THE WORLD THAT DOES LESS AND
SAYS MORE THAN CANADA.
ARE YOU STANDING BY THAT THIS
YEAR AGAIN?

Matthew says I
ABSOLUTELY STAND BY THAT.
I WOULD DISAGREE WITH ANN ABOUT
THIS QUITE STRONGLY.
I'VE SPENT 35 YEARS ABROAD, AND
CANADA... THERE'S NO QUESTION
THAT CANADA IS LIKED.
I MEAN, THAT IS AN ABSOLUTE
FACT, INDISPUTABLE.
BUT I DON'T THINK WE'RE TERRIBLY
RESPECTED.
I THINK WE'RE REGARDED AS NICE
GUYS AND LEO DUROCHER, I KNOW
YOU LIKE BASEBALL, SAYS NICE
GUYS FINISH LAST.

Steve says WHAT ARE WE
FINISHING LAST AT THESE DAYS?

Matthew says WE'RE
FINISHING IN THE MIDDLE.
WE'RE FINISHING IN THE MIDDLE.
THERE IS WONDER AT OUR
IMMIGRATION POLICY AND HOW,
UNTIL NOW, WE'VE MANAGED TO TAKE
IN VERY LARGE NUMBERS OF
PEOPLE... IT WASN'T JUST THE
LIBERALS, THE CONSERVATIVES
BEFORE THEM.
AND IN FACT IF THE CONSERVATIVES
WERE ELECTED AGAIN, IT WOULD BE
LIKE THAT.
BUT WE DON'T HAVE A FOREIGN
POLICY.
WE DON'T WANT TO DISCUSS FOREIGN
ISSUES IN CANADA.
THE DEBATE WAS CANCELLED ON
FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

Steve says DURING THE ELECTION.

Matthew says AND MY
CONCERN THERE WAS NOT ONLY THAT
THE PRIME MINISTER DIDN'T WANT
TO TALK ABOUT IT BUT THAT THE
OPPOSITION DIDN'T EVEN MAKE A
KERFUFFLE ABOUT IT.
I MEAN, THEY KIND OF CONFIRMED
THE PRIME MINISTER'S POSITION.
AND WE DON'T WANT TO SAY WHO WE
ARE, SO WE DO THINGS ON AN AD
HOC BASIS, AND I THINK WE'RE
KIND OF MUSHY.
AND I THINK PUSH IS COMING TO
SHOVE INTERNATIONALLY IN SOME OF
THESE THINGS, FOR EXAMPLE,
WITHIN NATO.
AND WE DO ASK A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF OUR MILITARY GIVEN THE
SIZE AND THE RESOURCES WE PUT
IN, BUT THERE'S NO DISCUSSION
OF, FOR EXAMPLE, DOUBLING.
NO CONSIDERATION AT ALL OF
DOUBLING THE BUDGET FOR THE
MILITARY.
BUT TO REALLY HAVE A SAY IN THE
WORLD, THAT COUNTS A LOT.
AND THE GOOD THINGS THAT THEY
DO, THEY COULD DO A LOT MORE OF.
I MEAN, RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE
SOMETHING LIKE 21 PEACEKEEPERS
OVERSEAS AND WE KEEP TALKING
ABOUT WHAT GREAT PEACEKEEPERS WE
ARE...

Steve says CAN I PUT THAT TO ANN.
WE'RE LIKED.
ARE WE SUSPECTED AROUND THE WORLD?

Ann says ON THE
PEACEKEEPING ISSUE, I THINK WE
NEED TO CHANGE THE VERNACULAR ON
PEACEKEEPING.
WE DON'T SEE PEACEKEEPING AROUND
THE WORLD ANYMORE.
IT WAS A CONCEPT THAT WAS BASED
ON TRUTH-KEEPING.
A VERY, VERY DIFFICULT GLOBAL
TIME.
HOWEVER, CANADA PLAYED A REAL
ROLE IN CONCEPTUALIZING THAT
DEBATE AND TO SHAPE AND INFORM
THAT.
I THINK IT CAN SHAPE AND INFORM
THE NEXT GENERATION OF
PEACEKEEPING AS WELL.
I WORK IN PLACES LIKE SOMALIA
AND NORTHEAST NIGERIA AND
UKRAINE AND AREAS WHERE...

Steve says NO PEACE TO KEEP.

Ann says THERE'S NO PEACE TO KEEP.
AND IT'S CHARACTERIZED BY
COUNTER-TERRORISM,
COUNTER-INSURGENCY, WARFARE.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO
LOOK AT OUR CAPABILITY HERE IN
CANADA, AND WHERE I WOULD AGREE
WITH MATTHEW IS THAT, YOU KNOW,
WE NEED TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT.

Matthew says IT'S BEEN A
DECADE THAT WE'VE BEEN REALLY IN
A SITUATION WHERE IT'S
PEACE-MAKING RATHER THAN
PEACE-KEEPING.
CANADA HAS NOT KEPT UP THE
SCHOOLS.
EVEN IN THE SCHOOLS AND THE HIGH
SCHOOLS IN THIS COUNTRY, THEY
STILL TEACH TRADITIONAL
PEACEKEEPING, AND SO WE WRAP
OURSELVES IN THAT BLUE FLAG
BECAUSE OF THINGS THAT WE DID 40
OR 50 YEARS AGO.
BUT IT'S GETTING A BIT OLD.
AND THE REALITY IS, WE CAN DO AN
EFFECTIVE JOB.
I WAS IN MALI THIS YEAR, AND WE
HAD A VERY EFFECTIVE MISSION.
THE PROBLEM WAS THE U.N. DIDN'T
GIVE THEM MUCH TO DO.
BUT IT TOOK THE CANADIAN
GOVERNMENT OVER TWO YEARS TO
EVEN DECIDE TO SEND A SMALL
CONTINGENT TO MALI, AND THEN OF
COURSE THEY WERE THERE ONLY 13
MONTHS BEFORE THEY'RE GONE.

Steve says BEFORE THE CLOCK
GETS AWAY FROM US HERE, I DO
WANT US TO LOOK EAST.
YOU WERE HERE A YEAR AGO AND WE
TALKED ABOUT WHAT YOUR FORECAST
WAS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THIS
GLOBE A YEAR AGO.
REMEMBER WHAT YOU HAD TO SAY?
YOU DON'T HAVE TO REMEMBER WHAT
YOU HAD TO SAY BECAUSE WE HAPPEN
TO HAVE IT HERE.
GO AHEAD, SHELDON.

A clip plays on screen with the caption "January 16, 2019."
In the clip, Steve talks with Matthew in the studio.

Matthew says IT WILL BE SOME KIND OF
STANDOFF IN ASIA IN THE NEXT
YEAR THAT COULD INVOLVE THE
JAPANESE AND THE...

A female guest says C'MON.
THAT'S TOO MUCH...

Steve says A STANDOFF IN ASIA
BETWEEN...

Matthew says BETWEEN CHINA AND ITS
NEIGHBOURS OR THE UNITED STATES,
AND IT COULD BE OVER THOSE ISLANDS.

Steve says THAT COULD GO MILITARY?

Matthew says YES.
WHETHER IT'S IN THE NEXT 12
MONTHS OR 24, 36 MONTHS, IT IS
COMING LIKE A FREIGHT TRAIN, AND
I THINK WE ARE UNWISE TO NOT
THINK ABOUT THAT.

The clip ends.

The caption changes to "The Chinese dragon spreads its wings."

Steve says HAS THE FREIGHT
TRAIN COME YET?

Matthew says IT'S COMIN'.

Steve says STILL COMING.

Matthew says VIETNAM HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT
DISPUTES OVER PLATFORMS, GAS AND
OIL PLATFORMS, IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
THE INDONESIANS, FOR THE FIRST
TIME EVER, AND JUST IN THE PAST
FEW WEEKS, HAVE PUT THEIR NAVY
TO SEA BECAUSE THEIR TERRITORIAL
WATERS HAVE BEEN INVADED BY
COAST GUARD VESSELS FROM CHINA.
CHINA BUILT 23 WAR SHIPS AND PUT
THEM TO SEA IN THE LAST 12
MONTHS.
WE KNOW IN CANADA IT TAKES US 20
OR 25 YEARS TO BUILD ONE.
THESE ARE NOT THE ACTIONS OF A
POWER THAT IS NOT INTERESTED IN
EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER A
REGION.
MORE INCURSIONS INTO JAPANESE
AIR SPACE.
THE PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT IS
NOW WAVERING MORE.
AND I FEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
MISCALCULATIONS AT SEA.
I WAS ON THE CANADIAN WAR SHIP
THAT WAS TRAILED FOR 4,000
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTH
CHINA AND EAST CHINA SEA AND
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF TAIWAN IN
JUNE.
I WAS TWO YEARS AGO ON THE
WINNIPEG, LAST YEAR ON THE
REGINA, AND THE DIFFERENCE EVEN
IN THAT 12 MONTHS, THE CHINESE
NOW DON'T FOLLOW FROM 5 MILES
AWAY, NAUTICAL MILES, THEY
FOLLOW 1 MILE AWAY.
FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, THEY
SENT FIGHTER JETS DOWN AND
BUZZED THE CANADIANS.
IT'S ALL SLOWLY RATCHETING UP.
AND I CAN'T PREDICT WHEN IT'S
GOING TO COME TO A HEAD, AND
IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A GLOBAL
WAR OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT ANY
TIME SOON, BUT THERE ARE GOING
TO BE INCREASING TENSIONS IN
ASIA.
THERE ALREADY ARE.
AND IT'S MOVING INTO THE INDIAN
OCEAN.
AND DON'T FORGET THAT JUST IN 2
WEEKS AGO, THE IRANIANS, THE
RUSSIANS, AND THE CHINESE WERE
HOLDING JOINT NAVAL EXERCISES IN
THE GULF OF OMAN AND IN THE
NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN.
FOR US IF YOU LOOK AT THOSE,
IT'S A SINISTER TRIO.

Steve says CLEARLY THEY WANT TO
HAVE INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD
STAGE.
DO YOU SEE THE CHINESE AS A
MILITARY THREAT?

Ann says I DON'T
SEE THEIR LEADING GLOBAL
PRIORITY IS MILITARY
EXPANSIONISM.
I THINK THEY WANT TO EXERT A
LEADING MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE
REGION, BUT I THINK, YOU KNOW,
THEY WANT TO BE THE MOST
INFLUENTIAL COUNTRY IN THE
WORLD, BUT THROUGH A VERY
COMMUNIST-DRIVEN ECONOMIC MODEL.
AND ONE WHICH SEES THEM ALL
OVER.
AND I SEE THIS IN EAST AND WEST
AFRICA ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
CHINESE GOVERNMENT COMES IN,
THEY OFFER TO BUILD ROAD, RAIL,
ET CETERA, INFRASTRUCTURE LIKE
THE BELT ROAD INITIATIVE THAT
THESE COUNTRIES HAVE NEVER
ABSORBED BEFORE BUT DESPERATELY
NEED, CAN'T AFFORD ANY FRACTION
OF IT, AND CHINA VERY CUNNINGLY
SAYS, LOOK, YOU DON'T HAVE TO
PAY US, WE'LL BE HERE FOR THE
NEXT HUNDRED YEARS.
WE WILL OWN THE TOLL BOOTHS ON
THE ROAD.
WE WILL OWN THE OFFICES OF THE
PORT AUTHORITIES AND THE
AIRPORTS, COLLECT THE TARIFFS
OVER THE YEARS AND THE FEES AND
THAT'S HOW YOU'LL PAY US BACK.
THAT BUYS THEM CONTROL.
THAT BUYS THEM AUTHORITY,
POLITICAL VOICE, AND OF COURSE
THINGS LIKE INFRASTRUCTURE, LIKE
AIRPORTS AND SEAPORTS ARE ALL
INSTRUMENTAL NOT JUST FOR
INTERNATIONAL TRADE BUT ALSO
MILITARY MOBILIZATION.
SO SLOWLY THIS ECONOMIC SECURITY
INFLUENCE IS BEING DUBBED WITH
MILITARY EXPANSIONISM.

Steve says YOU DON'T INFER THAT
THAT'S NECESSARILY EQUAL TO A
MILITARY THREAT?

Ann says ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Steve says LET ME READ FROM
EMMANUEL MACRON, THE PRESIDENT
OF FRANCE, AND I'LL GET YOU TO
COMMENT ON THIS.
HERE'S THE FRENCH PRESIDENT
IN A YEAR-END INTERVIEW WITH THE
ECONOMIST MAGAZINE...

A quote appears on screen, under the title "A battle of ideals." The quote reads "The great difficulty is that we are witnessing a sort of backlash, the return of other competing values. Non-democratic models, which are challenging European humanism like never before. I've often said that our model was built in the 18th century with the European Enlightenment, the market economy, individual freedom, democratic rule and the progress of the middle classes. The Chinese model is a model that brings together a market economy and an expanding middle class, but without freedom. Some people say it works, so there's some kind of living proof. I don't know whether it's sustainable.
[People] say: 'Well, I'm willing to five up certain freedoms to move towards a more authoritarian regime if it protects me more, and allows for growth and greater wealth.' This crisis is right here among us."
Emmanuel Macron, as quoted in The Economist. November 7, 2019.

Steve says OKAY MATTHEW, HOW MUCH
TRACTION DOES THIS AUTHORITARIAN
MODEL OF GOVERNANCE OR I GUESS
TRENDING OTHER PLACES IN EASTERN
EUROPE, ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACY, HOW
MUCH DOES IT HAVE RIGHT NOW?

Matthew says I THINK
MACRON IS VERY SENSIBLE IN
IDENTIFYING THESE AS A PROBLEM.
CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE BOTH SORT
OF POSTER BOYS FOR, YOU CAN DO
WELL AND YOUR PEOPLE WILL BUY
IT, AND I THINK IN RUSSIA AND IN
CHINA, THE PEOPLE HAVE BOUGHT
IT.
AND SO FAR IN EASTERN EUROPE,
THEY HAVE... I MEAN, WE SEE THIS
A BIT IN POLAND, WE CERTAINLY
SEE IT IN HUNGARY AND SLOVAKIA,
BUT WHEN YOU GO TO AFRICA, WHEN
I SPEAK TO AFRICANS AND I
TRAVELLED IN AFRICA A LOT IN THE
LAST YEAR, THE CHINESE ARE
EVERYWHERE AND WITH FANTASTIC
INVESTMENTS.
SOME OF THEM KIND OF SILLY, LIKE
80,000-SEAT SPORTS STADIUMS, BUT
SOME OF THEM WITH GREAT
FUNCTIONAL BENEFITS TO THE
COUNTRIES THEY'RE IN.
BUT THE PUBLIC DOESN'T... THEY
DON'T SEE THAT BECAUSE ALL THE
JOBS ARE FOR CHINESE WORKERS.
THE CHINESE WORKERS ARE
BASICALLY FENCED OFF FROM THE
POPULATION.
AND THERE'S GROWING RESENTMENT.
THERE'S BACKLASH.
WE'RE NOT AT THAT POINT IN
EUROPE.
BUT POPULISM IN EUROPE... MAYBE
THE INFLUENCE IS GREATER WITH
PUTIN THAN IT IS WITH THE
CHINESE, BUT THEY SEE TOUGH
GUYS, AND SOME OF THEIR LEADERS
LIKE TO THINK THEY'RE GOING TO
BE TOUGH GUYS TOO.
AND RIGHT NOW I WOULDN'T SAY
THEY'RE WINNING, BUT
INCREMENTALLY, THEY'RE MAKING
PROGRESS, EVEN IN COUNTRIES SUCH
AS SWEDEN AND DENMARK.

Steve says LET ME ASK ANN ABOUT
THAT.
HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU THAT
AUTHORITARIANISM OR LIBERAL
DEMOCRACY ARE GAINING GREATER
TRACTION IN THE WORLD?

Ann says IT'S ALL
ABOUT THE TENSION BETWEEN THESE
TWO MODELS, RIGHT?
BUT THERE ARE TWO VERY IMPORTANT
ISSUES HERE.
FIRST OF ALL, THE
CHARACTERISTICS SURROUNDING THAT
CHINESE AND ASIAN TIGER MODEL
ARE (1) STRONG LEADERSHIP (2)
THE AVAILABILITY OF A LIVEABLE
INCOME AND INTERNATIONAL
FINANCING, AND (3) A GOOD
NATIONAL STRATEGY.
SO IN A LOT OF DIVIDED SOCIETIES
IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD, YOU
DON'T HAVE THESE THINGS.
AND ALSO THE BIG DIFFERENCE IS,
A RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS
SOCIETY, WHICH THIS ECONOMIC
MODEL TAKES ROOT IN WITH THESE
VERY DIVERSE SOCIETIES, PEOPLE
WANT THE DEMOCRATIC ASSURANCE
AND THE GUARANTEE.
SO SOME COUNTRIES THAT HAVE BEEN
TURNING TO CHINA AND ASIAN, YOU
KNOW, EASTERN MODELS TO, YOU
KNOW, WHO HAVE EXPIRED WITH
THESE WESTERN LIBERAL PIECE
PARADIGM MODELS, ARE NOW LOOKING
FOR ANSWERS TO SOME SORT OF
AMALGAM MODEL WHICH BRIDGES THE
GOOD THINGS TOGETHER AND WE'RE A
BIT STUCK.

Steve says LET'S SPEND A MOMENT
JUST LOOKING AT THE NOT-SO
UNITED KINGDOM NOW.
BORIS JOHNSON DID WIN A
CONVINCING VICTORY FOR HIS
CONSERVATIVE PARTY.
BREXIT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NOW.
IF YOU LOOKED INTO YOUR CRYSTAL
BALL, 25 YEARS FROM NOW, ANN,
WHAT DO YOU SEE THE EUROPEAN
UNION LOOKING LIKE, GIVEN THE
RELATIONSHIP THAT THE U.K. NOW
WANTS TO HAVE WITH IT?

The caption changes to "The EU's shrinking pains."

Ann says CRYSTAL
BALL GAZING.
DANGEROUS.
BECAUSE IT'S ABOUT THE FUTURE.
I THINK THE EUROPEAN UNION WILL
HAVE TO SORT OF REDEFINE ITSELF.
AND IT CAN'T DEFINE ITSELF AS A
POWER AND COMPETE AS A POWER.
BUT IT CAN DO THINGS OVER THE
NEXT 25 YEARS TO SORT OF MAKE
THE UNION A LITTLE BIT MORE
COHESIVE.
BUT THERE'S A LOT OF WORK STILL
TO DO.
AND INTRODUCE SOME FINANCIAL
DISCIPLINES AND FISCAL POLICIES
TO AVOID THE SORT OF BANKING
CRISIS, THE FINANCIAL CRISES
THAT ALMOST BROUGHT ITALY AND
GREECE DOWN.
I THINK THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
CONFUSION THAT RAINS OVER WHAT
BREXIT LOOKS LIKE.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR CANADA?
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR CANADA'S
RELATIONSHIP WITH BOTH THE
EUROPEAN UNION AND THE UNITED
KINGDOM?
THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES, BUT
THERE ARE ALSO SOME BIG
UNCERTAINTIES.
IN 25 YEARS, WELL, I THINK, YOU
KNOW, WE'RE GOING TO SEE IT
STILL TOGETHER, BUT I THINK IT'S
GOING TO BE A LOOSER
CONSTELLATION OF OPT IN-OPT OUT OPTIONS.

Matthew says I THINK ONE
OF THE KEYS HERE IS WHAT HAPPENS
WITH GERMANY POST MERKEL.
THE GERMAN ECONOMY, NOBODY HAS
REALLY PAID THAT MUCH ATTENTION
TO IT THAT I CAN SEE OTHER THAN
THE VERY SORT OF NARROW
FINANCIAL PRESS, BUT THE GERMAN
ECONOMY IS GOING MUCH MORE
SLOWLY.
IT'S REALLY NOT GROWING AT ALL,
AND THERE ARE ALL THESE
UNCERTAINTIES.
SHE WAS SORT OF A ROCK FOR US.
WE COULD DEPEND ON HER.
WELL, WHAT HAPPENS AFTERWARDS?
AND GERMANY CONTROLS SO MUCH.
WE TALK ABOUT BRITAIN LEAVING
BREXIT, AND THAT'S AN IMPORTANT
PIECE OF IT.
BUT WHAT WILL GERMANY DO WHEN
EVEN MORE OF THE BILLS ARE GOING
TO FALL TO THEM, AND MAYBE THEY
DON'T HAVE THE WHEREWITHAL TO
PAY FOR THEM.
THAT IS WHERE I THINK THINGS CAN
UNRAVEL FURTHER BECAUSE SOUTHERN
EUROPE, FOR ALL THAT THE GREEKS
AND THE ITALIANS BITCH AND THEY
REALLY DO COMPLAIN A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT ABOUT THE GERMANS AND,
YOU KNOW, THEY RUN THESE MOCK
SORT OF NAZI THINGS IN THEIR
TABLOIDS ABOUT HOW GERMANY IS
TRYING TO FORCE THEM TO DO
THINGS, THE REALITY IS, THOSE
SOUTHERN ECONOMIES ARE
COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON GERMAN
HANDOUTS.
NOBODY REALLY WANTS TO TALK
ABOUT IT, BUT IT'S A REALITY.
WHAT IF GERMANY CANNOT BE THE
BIG BROTHER TO SO MANY PEOPLE?
IN THAT VACUUM, RUSSIA, WITH ALL
ITS OIL AND GAS MONEY, MAYBE CAN
MAKE GREATER INROADS.

Steve says I WANT TO ASK YOU
ABOUT HOW WELL YOU THINK
VLADIMIR PUTIN PROSECUTED HIS
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AGENDA
OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS.

The caption changes to "A gloating Russian bear."

Ann says WELL, I
THINK ALL EYES ARE ON PUTIN AT
THE MOMENT.
YOU KNOW, THE EXTENT TO WHICH HE
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
THE DESTABILIZATION IN UKRAINE
AND IN SYRIA...

Steve says AND IN THE UNITED
STATES?

Ann says POSSIBLY.
I THINK WE HAVE TO BE PLEASED
WITH THE WHOLE PRISONER EXCHANGE
THAT TOOK PLACE JUST BEFORE
CHRISTMAS.
I THINK WE HAVE TO BE PLEASED
WITH THE FACT THAT ZELENSKIY IS
TAKING A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
APPROACH IN UKRAINE AND HAS LOTS
OF SUPPORT BEHIND HIM.
BUT I THINK WE HAVE TO BE VERY
CONCERNED, ESPECIALLY WITH
WHAT'S JUST HAPPENED OVER THE
PAST TWO WEEKS, AND RUSSIA'S
PERSPECTIVE ON THOSE EVENTS,
WITH HOW WILL THEY GO FORWARD
VIS-A-VIS THE MINSK AGREEMENT
AND THE NORMANDY PROCESS.

Steve says YOU BETTER EXPLAIN.

Ann says IT'S SHAPING AND INFORMING
SOME SORT OF RESOLUTION IN UKRAINE.

Matthew says WE'RE A
LONG WAY FROM A SOLUTION THERE,
AND I'M VERY WORRIED THAT THE
SOLUTION... I'M NOT AS BIG A FAN
OF THE PRISONER EXCHANGE BECAUSE
IT SEEMS TO ME IT FAVOURED
RUSSIA.
AND INCREMENTALLY, RUSSIA IS
GAINING WHAT IT WANTED ALL THE
TIME, WHICH IS DE FACTO
RECOGNITION OF THE SEIZURE OR
THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA, AND
ALSO THE STATUS QUO IN DONBAS
WHERE THEY DON'T HAVE HUGE
AMOUNTS OF TERRITORY, THE
RUSSIAN PROXIES, BUT IN TWO
PLACES THEY DO.
ONCE THAT STABILIZES I WORRY
THAT RUSSIA WILL LOOK FOR OTHER
ADVENTURES.
TRUMP MAY HAVE GAINED BECAUSE OF
HIS PROBLEMS WITH IMPEACHMENT BY
HIS ACTION AGAINST IRAN.
WELL, PUTIN ALSO GAINS.
HIS PERSONAL POPULARITY AT HOME
IN THE LAST YEAR OR TWO HAS GONE
UP AND DOWN A LITTLE BIT, AND
MAYBE HE NEEDS ANOTHER
ADVENTURE.

Steve says LET'S TAKE... WE
HAVE A MINUTE LEFT... LET'S TAKE
30 SECONDS TO EACH OF YOU, AND
ON THE CHANCE THAT WE'RE GOING
TO HAVE YOU TWO BACK 12 MONTHS
FROM NOW AND WANT TO REPLAY
THESE PREDICTIONS THAT YOU MAKE,
GIVE US A PREDICTION FOR 2020.
WHAT DO YOU SEE?

The caption changes to "Forward thinking."

Ann says 2020.
TRUMP GETS RE-ELECTED.
A VERY CONFUSED AND CHAOTIC
SITUATION CONCERNING POST-BREXIT
E.U., AND I WOULD SAY THE ALMOST
NEAR TOTAL LOSS OF PRIVACY AS A
RESULT OF SIRI, ALEXA, AND PHOTO
IMAGERY RECOGNITION.
I WOULD ALSO ADD THE DIGITALIZED
ECONOMY WILL MOVE FASTER THAN WE
HAVE THE MACROECONOMIC
INSTRUMENTS, THE LEGAL
FRAMEWORKS, AND THE GOVERNANCE
FRAMEWORKS TO ABSORB.

Matthew says I THINK
THERE WILL BE MORE FRICTIONS IN
ASIA.
I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT
MORE THINGS THAT YOU CANNOT
PREDICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND
IT'S NOT JUST IN THE TRADITIONAL
WAY.
I THINK THAT THE SAUDIS MAY HAVE
A GO SOMEHOW AT THE IRANIANS OR
VICE VERSA, AND YEMEN IS ALWAYS
OUT THERE.
IT'S A HORRIBLE WAR THAT NOBODY
KNOWS MUCH ABOUT.
AND THAT DEFINITELY IS A WAR
THAT PITS SUNNIS AGAINST SHIAS,
IT'S A WAR THAT PITS SAUDI
ARABIA AND ITS MONEY AGAINST
IRAN AND ITS MONEY, AND WE ARE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE... NOT
CANADA, BUT CERTAINLY THE UNITED
STATES HAS SUPPORTED THE SAUDIS
AND SO HAS ISRAEL.

The caption changes to "Producer: Harrison Lowman, @harrisonlowman."

Steve says THAT'S AROUND THE
WORLD IN 30 MINUTES FROM ANN
FITZ-GERALD, FROM THE
BALSILLIE SCHOOL OF
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AND
MATTHEW FISHER FROM CANADIAN
GLOBAL AFFAIRS INSTITUTE.

The caption changes to "Subscribe to The Agenda Podcast: tvo.org/theagenda."

Matthew says THANK YOU, STEVE.

Watch: 2020: A World Divided