Transcript: Bracing for Brexit | Jan 18, 2019

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, white shirt, and checked blue tie.

A caption on screen reads "Bracing for Brexit."

Steve says IT HAS BEEN AN UNPRECEDENTED
WEEK IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.
JOINING US FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE
ON IT ALL, SKYPING IN FROM ALONG
THE ENGLISH-WELSH BORDER NEAR
HEREFORD, U.K.: GWYTHIAN PRINS,
EMERITUS RESEARCH PROFESSOR AT
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
AND SENIOR VISITING ACADEMIC
FELLOW AT L'ECOLE SPECIALE
MILITAIRE IN ST CYR, FRANCE.
HE VOTED LEAVE.

Gwythian is in his late sixties, clean-shaven and balding. He's wearing a gray suit, yellow shirt, and printed green tie.
A map of the United Kingdom appears, highlighting the location of Hereford.

Steve continues AND HERE IN OUR STUDIO: RANDALL HANSEN, INTERIM DIRECTOR OF THE
MUNK SCHOOL OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS
AND PUBLIC POLICY AT THE U OF T.
HE'S A DUAL CITIZEN, LIVED AND
WORKED IN THE U.K. FOR 13 YEARS,
AND HE VOTED REMAIN.

Randall is in his fifties, clean-shaven, with short brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit and a black turtleneck.

The caption changes to "What a difference a week makes."

Steve continues RANDALL, LOVELY TO SEE YOU HERE
AGAIN IN OUR STUDIO.
GWYTHIAN, GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON
OUR PROGRAM FOR THE FIRST TIME.
I WANT TO START BY PLAYING A
COUPLE OF CLIPS JUST TO BRING US
UP TO SCRATCH ON THE WEEK THAT
WAS AND WHAT A WEEK IT WAS.
TUESDAY, PRIME MINISTER THERESA
MAY PUTS HER DEAL FOR BREXIT
BEFORE THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT.
IT IS TURNED DOWN BY THE BIGGEST
MARGIN APPARENTLY EVER FOR A
SITTING U.K. GOVERNMENT, 230
VOTES, AND HERE'S WHAT IT LOOKED
LIKE.
ROLL THE CLIP, PLEASE.

A clip plays on screen with the caption "January 15, 2019."
In the clip, a clean-shaven man in his sixties stands in the house of Commons and speaks.

He says THE AYES TO THE RIGHT, 202.
THE NOES TO THE LEFT, 432.

A bearded man in his seventies says
THIS IS A CATASTROPHIC DEFEAT
FOR THIS GOVERNMENT.
AFTER TWO YEARS OF FAILED
NEGOTIATIONS, THE HOUSE OF
COMMONS HAS DELIVERED ITS
VERDICT ON HER BREXIT DEAL.
I HAVE NOW TABLED A MOTION OF NO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS...

[Cheers and Applause]

The man continues AND I'M PLEASED, I'M PLEASED
THAT MOTION WILL BE DEBATED
TOMORROW.
SO THIS HOUSE CAN GIVE ITS
VERDICT ON THE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS GOVERNMENT.

The clip ends.

Steve says WELL, IT CERTAINLY
LOOKED DESPERATE FOR THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY.
THAT'S JEREMY CORBIN, THE
OPPOSITION LEADER, AND YET WHEN
THEY WENT FOR THE VOTE OF NO
CONFIDENCE, NOT QUITE.
SECOND CLIP, PLEASE.

Another clip plays, with the caption "January 16, 2019."

In the clip, the Speaker says ORDER!
ORDER.

A gray-haired man in his forties says
THE AYES TO THE RIGHT, 306.
THE NOES TO THE LEFT, 325.

[Cheers and Applause]

The clip ends.

Steve says AND WITH THAT, THERESA
MAY'S GOVERNMENT SURVIVES BY A
MERE 19 VOTES, ALL OF THIS 70
DAYS BEFORE THE BREXIT DEADLINE
APPROACHES.
OKAY.
EVERYBODY SEEMS TO THINK WE'RE
IN UNCHARTERED WATERS NOW.
GWYTHIAN, START US OFF.
WHERE DO YOU THINK THINGS STAND
TONIGHT?

The caption changes to "Gwythian Prins. London School of Economics and Political Science."
Then, it changes again to "A dog's breakfast."

Gwythian says IN THE INTRODUCTION, STEVE,
IN QUITE UNPRECEDENTED
CIRCUMSTANCES.
THE VOTE IS AS YOU DESCRIBED,
WITHOUT PRECEDENT.
ALSO WITHOUT PRECEDENT WAS THE
BEHAVIOUR OF THE SPEAKER WHO YOU
JUST SAW IN THAT LAST CLIP,
BECAUSE MR. BURKEO HAS BROKEN
WITH ALL PRECEDENTS IN 1642 TO
ALLOW IN A VERY PARTISAN MANNER
A MOTION WHICH IS FORCING THE
PRIME MINISTER TO COME BACK TO
THE HOUSE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW THAT BREAKING WITH
PRECEDENCE IS NO TRIVIAL MATTER,
BECAUSE THE LAST TIME SOMETHING
LIKE THIS HAPPENED WE HAD A
CIVIL WAR WHICH FOLLOWED IT,
WHICH WAS THE BIGGEST DISASTER
IN OUR COLLECTIVE NATIONAL
HISTORY.
SO UNPRECEDENTED MOMENT, BUT
THERE ISN'T MUCH SURPRISE ABOUT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
VOTES.
THE AGREEMENT, WHEN YOU LOOK AT
ALL 500 AND SO PAGES, AND FOR MY
SINS I'VE DONE SO.
IT'S MISNAMED.
IT'S NOT A WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT.
AND THAT IS WHY YOU FIND THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE WHO WANT TO
LEAVE, TO ALL OF THE VOTE ON THE
17.4 MILLION PEOPLE WHO VOTED TO
LEAVE, THE LARGEST DEMOGRAPHIC
VOTE IN BRITISH HISTORY, BY THE
WAY.
AND THOSE PASSIONATELY WANTING
TO DISRESPECT THAT VOTE OR THE
REMAINIACS AS THEY ARE OFTEN
CALLED, ALL WENT INTO THE NO
LOBBY TOGETHER.
BUT WHEN IT CAME TO SUPPORTING
THE GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE MOST
LEFT WING LABOUR PRIME MINISTER
THAT THE COUNTRY HAS EVER SEEN,
THEN YOU FOUND THAT BOTH THE
STRONG BREXITEERS AND THE
DEMOCRATIC UNION OF THE PARTY
COMBINED TO KEEP THE GOVERNMENT
THERE.
NO SURPRISE IN EITHER OF THOSE
VOTES, IN MY VIEW.

Steve says RANDALL, WHERE DO YOU
THINK THINGS SIT RIGHT NOW?

The caption changes to "Randall Hansen. University of Toronto."

Randall says LET'S BEGIN WITH ONE POINT OF
AGREEMENT, WHICH IS THAT'S
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT THAT THE
NON-CONFIDENCE VOTE, THE RESULT
OF THE NO CONFIDENCE VOTE WAS NO
SURPRISE.
AND THAT'S BECAUSE THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY'S TERRIFIED
OF A CORBIN VICTORY.
CORBIN WANTS TO CREATE A
VENEZUELA... AND THE DUP...
NORTHERN IRELAND PROTESTANTS
VIEW HIM AS A SORT OF IRA
SYMPATHIZER.
WHERE I FUNDAMENTALLY DISAGREE
IS...

Gwythian says BOTH OF WHICH ARE CORRECT, RANDALL.

Randall says SORRY?

Gwythian says CORRECT.

Randall says SEE, THERE ARE POINTS OF
AGREEMENT.
WHERE I THINK I DISAGREE IS ON
THE ISSUE OF A PARLIAMENT
ASSERTING ITS ROLE.
I WON'T PUT WORDS INTO THE
DISTINGUISHED SPEAKER'S MOUTH,
BUT FOR DECADES THOSE WHO ARE
NOW BREXITERS HAVE COMPLAINED
THAT THE EU IS A THREAT TO
SOVEREIGNTY.
THAT IS A CLASSIC MOVE OF
PARLIAMENT REASSERTING ITSELF
AND TAKING CONTROL OF A PROCESS
WHICH I THINK HAS BEEN A FIASCO
UNDER THE PRIME MINISTER.
I THINK PARLIAMENT IS DOING
EXACTLY WHAT IT SHOULD.

Steve says GWYTHIAN...

Gwythian says LETS JUST GET THAT CLEAR
BECAUSE WE MUSTN'T LET THAT PASS
YOUR LISTENERS.
WITH ALL DUE RESPECT, WHICH IS
WHAT YOU ALWAYS SAY WHEN YOU'RE
GOING TO SAY SOMETHING SLIGHTLY
IMPOLITE ABOUT SOMEONE, THAT'S A
FUNDAMENTAL MISUNDERSTANDING OF
THE CONSTITUTION, RANDALL.
GOVERNMENTS GOVERN.
PARLIAMENTS MAKE LAWS.
PARLIAMENT DOES NOT GOVERN.
AND THE ATTEMPT TO MAKE
PARLIAMENT THE GOVERNOR IS
EXACTLY WHAT THE BURKO AND
REMAINIAC PITCH LAST WEEK WAS
ATTEMPTING TO DO.
THAT'S WHY IT'S SO DANGEROUS,
BECAUSE YOU CANNOT HAVE A
SITUATION IN WHICH PARLIAMENT
DICTATES THE TERMS TO THE
GOVERNMENT.
AS WE'LL COME ON TO LATER, AS IT
HAPPENS, ALL OF THIS IS QUITE
FUTILE BECAUSE WE WILL LEAVE ON
THE 29TH OF MARCH OF THIS YEAR
ANYWAY BECAUSE IT'S AN ACT OF
PARLIAMENT WE WILL DO SO.

Randall says WELL, WE SHOULDN'T GET TOO
HUNG UP ON THIS I THINK.
THAT MIGHT BE THE CASE.
THE LEAVING POINT.
I DISAGREE, PARLIAMENT IS NOT
GOVERNING HERE.
IT'S DOING WHAT A LEGISLATURE
SHOULD DO, WHICH IS HOLDING AN
EXECUTIVE TO ACCOUNT.
BUT THIS IS... I THINK THIS
ISN'T A FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE.

Steve says LET'S GET TO THE
FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE HERE, WHICH IS
SOMETHING GWYTHIAN SAID A LITTLE
WHILE AGO, WHICH IS THAT THE
AGREEMENT THAT WAS HAMMERED OUT,
IN HIS VIEW, IS NOT REALLY A
TRUE BREXIT.
AND LET'S JUST TAKE A MOMENT
HERE TO GO THROUGH THE 500-PLUS
PAGE DEAL THAT TOOK 500-PLUS
DAYS TO NEGOTIATE.
COULD WE HAVE THIS GRAPHIC,
PLEASE.
HERE'S WHAT WAS AGREED TO.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "The deal that wasn't."

Steve reads data from the slate and says
THE UNITED KINGDOM WOULD HAVE
HAD TO HONOUR ALL FINANCIAL
COMMITMENTS TO THE EU AND PAY
THE 2019 AND 2020 BUDGETS.
IT WOULD HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
TRANSITION PERIOD UNTIL THE END
OF 2020 OR EVEN UNTIL 2023.
THEY WOULD HAVE HAD TO MAINTAIN
THE RESIDENCE AND SOCIAL
SECURITY RIGHTS OF MORE THAN 3
MILLION EU CITIZENS LIVING IN
THE U.K. AND A MILLION U.K.
NATIONALS LIVING ON THE
CONTINENT.
THE EU WOULD HAVE STAYED IN THE
CUSTOMS UNION WITH NORTHERN
IRELAND FOLLOWING SINGLE MARKET
RULES TO AVOID WHAT THEY CALL A
HARD IRISH BORDER.
BRITAIN WOULD HAVE PARTICIPATED
IN EU JOINT DEFENCE PROJECTS,
JUDGMENTS FROM THE EUROPEAN
COURT OF JUSTICE WOULD HAVE BEEN
BINDING IN THE U.K.
RANDALL, CAN YOU SEE WHY SOME
PEOPLE WHO WANTED A BREXIT DON'T
REALLY SEE THAT AS A BREXIT?

The caption changes to "Randall Hansen, @ProfRAHansen."
Then, it changes again to "Back to the drawing board."

Randall says OH, SURE.
I MEAN, I CAN UNDERSTAND... I
MEAN, IT'S AMAZING THAT THEY
MANAGED TO UNITE REMAINERS AND
BREXITERS.
I CAN SEE BOTH SIDES OF THE
ARGUMENT.
WHAT I DON'T THINK IS THERE'S
ANY BETTER DEAL OUT THERE, AND
THERE'S A FUNDAMENTAL CHOICE TO
BE MADE HERE.
I MEAN, THERESA MAY BOXED
HERSELF IN WITH HER RED LINE.
EITHER YOU'RE IN THE CUSTOMS
UNION IN WHICH CASE YOU CAN'T
NEGOTIATE FREE TRADE DEALS.
YOU STAY IN THE SINGLE MARKET.
YOU DON'T HAVE CONTROL OF
MIGRATION AND YOU'RE SUBJECT TO
THE EUROPEAN COURT OF JUSTICE.
AND IF YOU DON'T LIKE ANY OF
THOSE, THEN YOUR ONLY REAL
CHOICE IS A HARD BREXIT, WHICH I
THINK WOULD BE DISASTROUS FOR
THE U.K.
BUT I SUSPECT THAT'S GOING TO BE
A POINT OF DISAGREEMENT.

The caption changes to "Connect with us: Twitter: @theagenda; Facebook, agendaconnect@tvo.org, Instagram."

Steve says I THINK GWYTHIAN MAY
TAKE A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THIS.
WHAT WAS YOUR OPINION OF THE
AGREEMENT HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN
THE U.K. AND THE EU?

Gwythian says I GUESS, STEVE, YOU AND I ARE
OF A GENERATION, AND YOU'LL
REMEMBER THE EAGLES SONG, HOTEL
CALIFORNIA.

Steve says INDEED.

Gwythian says YOU CAN CHECK OUT ANY TIME
YOU LIKE, BUT YOU CAN NEVER
LEAVE.

Steve says YES.

Gwythian says AND THAT'S WHAT THIS IS.
IT'S A HOTEL CALIFORNIA OR
SO-CALLED BREENO, BREXIT IN NAME
ONLY.
AND IT'S DESIGNED THAT WAY.
AND BY THE WAY, AMONG THE MANY
EXTRAORDINARY THINGS THAT'S
HAPPENED IN THIS COUNTRY IN THE
LAST FORTNIGHT, AN EXTREMELY
COURAGEOUS ALUMNUS CIVIL SERVANT
WHO IS DEEP WITHIN THE MACHINE
PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE IN THE
DAILY TELEGRAPH 10 DAYS AGO
EXPLAINING THAT THE CIVIL
SERVANTS HAVE ACTUALLY
COMPLETELY PREPARED TO LEAVE
WITHOUT ANY NEGOTIATION WITH THE
EU.
IT'S HAD TWO AND A HALF YEARS TO
PREPARE ALL THE NECESSARY STEPS,
AND ALL THOSE STEPS HAVE BEEN
MADE.
SO IT'S A FICTION TO SUGGEST
THAT AS THE REMAINIAC SIDE PUTS
IT, THAT THE CHOSENS OF THE BBC,
SHAMEFULLY, IS THAT LEAVING
WITHOUT A DEAL IS CRASHING OUT.
I MEAN, THIS IS JUST UTTER
NONSENSE.
WE ARE SIMPLY GOING TO TRADE
WITH THE EU THE WAY THAT WE
TRADE WITH THE REST OF THE
WORLD.
AND MOST OF OUR TRADE IS WITH
THE REST OF THE WORLD.

Steve says RANDALL, CAN I GET
YOUR TAKE ON THIS NOTION OF
CRASHING OUT, THE DEADLINE MIGHT
COME, THERE WILL BE NO DEAL AND
BRITAIN JUST LEAVES?

The caption changes to "Deal or no deal."

Randall says WELL, YOU KNOW, I'M... NO ONE
CAN USE HOTEL CALIFORNIA
REFERENCE.
I GOT IT.
I'M YOUNG ENOUGH TO CATCH IT.
I WANT TO PICK UP THAT POINT
FIRST.
OF COURSE YOU CAN LEAVE THE EU.
NO ONE'S SAYING YOU CAN'T LEAVE
THE EU.
THAT'S WHY THERE'S ARTICLE 50.
WHAT THE EU IS SAYING IS THAT IF
YOU LEAVE THE CLUB YOU DON'T
HAVE THE BENEFITS OF MEMBERSHIP.
WHAT THE EU HAS REALLY SAID FROM
THE BEGINNING, IN WHICH THERESA
MAY AND A LOT OF BREXITERS, NOT
OUR DISTINGUISHED GUEST, BUT A
LOT OF BREXITERS, ARE DENYING IS
THAT BASIC FACT, YOU LEAVE, YOU
LOSE THE PRIVILEGES, YOU WILL BE
POOR.
I'M GLAD TO AVOID THE WORD
"CRASHING OUT." I WOULD ALSO
LIKE TO AVOID THE WORD
"REMAINIAC OR RE-MOANER."
I DON'T THINK NAME CALLING
HELPS.
I HAVE NEVER REFERRED TO ANY
BREXITER AS THICK OR RACIST.
WE SIMPLY HAVE A POINT OF
DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVIDENCE.
IT MIGHT BE THE CASE THAT ONE
CIVIL SERVANT THINKS THE COUNTRY
IS PREPARED.
THE CONFEDERATION OF BRITISH
INDUSTRY, THE TREASURY AND THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ECONOMISTS
BELIEVE THAT THE U.K. IS
WOEFULLY ILL PREPARED.
WE SHALL SEE, BUT I THINK IT'S
NOT GOING TO BE PRETTY.
IT'S NOT GOING TO BE PRETTY AT
DOVER CALAIS.
I BLURRED THE TWO LANGUAGES,
WHERE 10,000... PASS THROUGH
EVERY DAY AND WHERE YOU HAVE
JUST-IN-TIME SUPPLY LINES IN THE
CASE OF THE AUTO INDUSTRY.
THEY ARE GOING TO BE IMMEDIATELY
DISRUPTED, AND OVER THE LONG
TERM, LONDON IS GOING TO BE
ABSOLUTELY FINE.
IT WAS A MAJOR FINANCIAL CENTRE
BEFORE.
IT WILL BE AFTER.
BUT MANUFACTURING, WELL-PAID
UNIONIZED JOBS, IRONICALLY IN
THE BREXIT HEARTLAND, THEY ARE
GOING TO BE HAMMERED AND
DESTROYED.
AND ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT ADMITS
THAT.
THEY SAY THIS IS GOING TO BE
GOOD FOR THE U.K., BUT WE CAN
SAY GOOD-BYE TO MANUFACTURING.
THEY ARE RIGHT ON THE LATTER,
WRONG ON THE FORMER.

Steve says LET ME ASK GWYTHIAN
ABOUT SOME OF THE FALLOUT.
WE'VE SEEN THE STORIES IN THE
NEWS.
SOME BRITS HAVE STARTED
STOCKPILING FOOD AND MEDICINE.
WE HEARD THE GOVERNMENT IS
PUTTING 3500 TROOPS ON STANDBY.
HYSTERIA OR SENSIBLE PREPARATION
IN YOUR VIEW?

The caption changes to "Assessing the aftermath."

Gwythian says IF YOU KEEP COUNT, THIS IS
PROJECT FEAR MARK FOUR.
WE HAD THE FIRST BOUT OF THIS
BEFORE THE REFERENDUM.
WHEN WE HAD EXACTLY THE SAME
PEOPLE THAT RANDALL IS
DESCRIBING SAYING THAT THE SKY'S
GOING TO FALL, THAT THE ECONOMY
WAS GOING TO CONTRACT WHEN IT
ACTUALLY EXPANDED AFTER WE HAD
VOTED TO LEAVE.
AND ALL THE OTHER PREDICTIONS
THAT WERE MADE THAT WERE GOING
TO HAPPEN, WHICH WERE MADE BY
THE CHAIRMAN, THE CANADIAN
CHAIRMAN OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND,
TURNED OUT TO BE QUITE UNTRUE.
BUT I WANT TO JUST PICK UP
BEFORE WE GO FURTHER ON THIS
SOMETHING WE WERE SAYING IN AN
EARLIER ANSWER, WHICH IS THAT
MRS. MAY'S FUNDAMENTAL MISTAKE
WAS TO BELIEVE THAT SHE HAD TO
PRODUCE A DEAL WHICH SOMEHOW
OFFERED A BIT TO EACH SIDE.
THIS WAS, AFTER ALL, A QUITE
CLEAR REFERENDUM RESULT.
IT WAS 52-48.
YOU KNOW, IT'S A LOT CLEARER,
FOR EXAMPLE, THAN QUEBEC IN
1995, WHICH WAS BY A CIGARETTE
PAPER.
AND YET, YOU CANNOT COMPROMISE
ON SOVEREIGNTY.
AND WHAT I WANT TO INSIST ON,
AND THE POINT I WAS MAKING
EARLIER ABOUT SECURITY GOES TO
THE HEART OF IT, IS THAT THE
FUNDAMENTAL MISUNDERSTANDING BY
THOSE ON THE REMAIN SIDE, AND BY
THE WAY, RANDALL, THE REASON I
USED THE WORDS WHICH YOU TOOK
EXCEPTION TO, THEY ARE
DISRESPECTFUL WORDS BECAUSE THEY
APPLY TO PEOPLE WHO DISRESPECT
THE MAJORITY VOTE OF THE PUBLIC.
AND THAT FUNDAMENTAL DISRESPECT
COMES FROM A FAILURE TO
UNDERSTAND WHAT THIS REFERENDUM
WAS ABOUT.
IT WAS NOT ABOUT ECONOMICS.
IT WAS NOT ABOUT A TRANSACTIONAL
OFFER THAT YOU WERE GOING TO BE
RICHER OR POORER.
IT WAS ABOUT THE RETURN OF
SOVEREIGNTY.
AND THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON
THE 29TH, SO WE WILL BE LEAVING.
AND LET ME EXPLAIN VERY
QUICKLY WHY.
FORTUNATELY ON THE REMAIN
SIDE A COMBINATION OF VERY
CLEVER PEOPLE LED BY A
HEDGE FUNDER CALLED GINA
MILLER AND A VERY DISTINGUISHED
QC CALLED LORD PANNICK PERHAPS
APPROPRIATELY BROUGHT A CASE
WHICH WENT TO THE SUPREME
COURT WHICH FORCED THE
GOVERNMENT TO LEGISLATE BY ACT
OF PARLIAMENT OVER ARTICLE 50
THE RESULT OF THAT IS THAT THE
DATE OF LEAVING IS INSCRIBED
IN STATUTE LAW BY TWO ACTS OF
PARLIAMENT THE REPEAL OF THE
1972 WITHDRAWL ACT AND NOW THE
LEGISLATED PASSING OF THE
ARTICLE 50 BOTH BY ENORMOUS
MAJORITIES IN THE HOUSE OF
COMMONS AND THEREFORE WE WILL
LEAVE ON THIS DAY. THERE'S
NO QUESTION UNLESS THOSE
PRIMARY LEGISLATION, LOOK
YOUR LEGISLATURE IS THE SAME
AS OURS, PRIMARY LEGISLATION TO
REPEAL BOTH OF THOSE ACTS OF
PARLIAMENT. NOBODY REALLY SEES
THAT HAPPENING. SO WE WILL BE
LEAVING.
THE ONLY QUESTION IS: ON WHAT
TERMS?
THE NOTION THAT TRADING WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION, WHICH BY THE WAY
IS A DECLINING PART OF BRITAIN'S
TOTAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, WE ARE
THE STRONGEST ECONOMY IN EUROPE.
WE ARE ALSO THE MOST
FORWARD-LOOKING.
WE MAKE IDEAS.
WE MAKE SERVICES.
WE MAKE FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS.
WE DON'T BANG METAL, ALBEIT VERY
BEAUTIFULLY, LIKE THE GERMANS.
AND THE EUROZONE ECONOMY IS IN
STAGNATION.
SO YOU SPOKE EARLIER, RANDALL,
ABOUT THE PRIVILEGES WE LEAVE,
THAT WE WILL LOSE.
THERE ARE MANY OF US WHO THINK
THAT, FRANKLY, THERE'S NOT A
GREAT DEAL TO BE GOT FROM BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS PATENTLY
A COLLAPSING PROJECT.
SO WHY ON EARTH WOULD YOU WANT
TO BE ASSOCIATED, CHAINED TO A CORP?

Steve says WOULD THE DEPARTURE
FROM THE EU BE A FATAL BLOW TO
THE EU?
IT'S GOING TO BE A DEVASTATING
BLOW?

Randall says YOU'RE NOT GOING TO LET ME
RESPOND?

Steve says I JUST WANTED TO PICK
UP WHERE HE LEFT OFF.

The caption changes to "A failed European experiment?"

Randall says NO, IT WON'T BE.
I WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW
COLLAPSED IS MEASURED HERE.
IF WE LOOK AT PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR
THE EUROPEAN UNION, IT IS AT
PARTLY THANKS TO THE CATASTROPHE
THAT IS BREXIT AT 25-YEAR HIGH,
AND HIGHEST AMONG THE MOST
RECENT MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION.
SO OUR DISTINGUISHED GUEST HAS
COMPARED, WHICH I REGARD IS
REALLY OUTRAGEOUS, THE... THOUGH
HE'S WELCOME TO MAKE THE
COMPARISON.
THE EUROPEAN UNION TO THE SOVIET
UNION.
I WOULD ENCOURAGE HIM TO ASK
POLLS, 85 percent OF WHOM STRONGLY
SUPPORT THE EUROPEAN UNION.
IF THEY THINK LIFE IN THE EU
WHEN AT THE MOMENT THEY ARE
GROWING AT ALMOST 5 percent PER YEAR...
THERE ARE 500 MILLION PEOPLE IN
THE EUROPEAN UNION.
THERE IS NO ONE EUROPEAN UNION.
GREECE IS IN RECESSION
POLAND, HUNGARY IS BOOMING.
GERMANY DIPPED BUT DONE GREAT
OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS AND THE
NORDIC COUNTRIES ARE ALWAYS
DOING WELL.
GROWING AT 5 percent IN POLAND AND
PASSIONATELY IN SUPPORT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION.
THE PEOPLE, NOT THE GOVERNMENT.

Steve says THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE,
PROFESSOR PRINS, WHO ARE LOOKING
FOR A WAY OUT OF THIS THAT CAN
SATISFY, YOU KNOW, THE LARGEST
CHUNK OF BRITS AS POSSIBLE, AND
ONE IDEA THAT'S COME FORWARD,
WE'LL TALK ABOUT A COUPLE OF
THEM RIGHT NOW, ONE IDEA IS A
SECOND REFERENDUM.
HOW WOULD YOU REGARD THAT?

Gwythian says WELL, THAT WOULD BE A
CONSTITUTIONAL OUTRAGE.
THE PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY SPOKEN.
WE'VE HAD THE LARGEST SINGLE
VOTE ON AN ISSUE IN FAVOUR EVER
IN THE HISTORY OF BRITISH
DEMOCRACY.
THAT WAS THE 2016 REFERENDUM
VOTE TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN
UNION.
AND THE GOVERNMENT SAID, YOU
WILL REMEMBER, THAT THE VOTE WAS
HANDED BY PARLIAMENT BACK TO THE
PEOPLE AND THEY WOULD DO WHAT
THE PEOPLE TOLD THEM.
THE PEOPLE INSTRUCTED THEM TO
LEAVE.
NOW IT'S NOT VERY DIFFICULT TO
UNDERSTAND.
LEAVE MEANS LEAVE.
IT MEANS THAT YOU'RE GOING TO
LEAVE THE SINGLE MARKET.
YOU'RE GOING TO LEAVE THE
CUSTOMS UNION.
YOU'RE GOING TO LEAVE THE
JURISDICTION OF THE EUROPEAN
COURT OF JUSTICE.
YOU'RE GOING TO TAKE BACK
CONTROL OF YOUR BORDERS, AND OF
YOUR FINANCES.
NONE OF THIS IS COMPLICATED.
AND THAT IS WHAT THE PEOPLE
WANT, AND THAT IS THE SORT OF
DEAL, FRANKLY, WHICH I THINK
WE'RE LIKELY TO GET.
AND THE REASON IS THAT THE EU
HAS FAR MORE TO FEAR FROM US
LEAVING ON A SOVEREIGN BREXIT
WITHOUT ANY NEGOTIATION THAN WE
DO.
WHY?
BECAUSE WE THEN DON'T PAY THE
MONEY, THE VOLUNTARY MONEY, THE
39 BILLION, WHICH WE HAVE
OFFERED.
WE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO PAY
THAT, BY THE WAY, BUT WHICH IS
NECESSARY FOR THEIR FUNDS.
THE SITUATION IN EUROPE IS
SIMPLY NOT... WELL, IT DEPENDS,
I SUPPOSE, WHAT YOU LOOK AT.
CLEARLY RANDALL AND I LOOK AT
DIFFERENT THINGS.
YOU KNOW, GO TALK TO THE...
[INDISCERNIBLE]
GO TALK TO THE
SUPPORTERS OF THE FIVE STAR IN
ITALY.
TALK TO PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING IN
THE FORTHCOMING EUROPEAN
ELECTIONS TO DOMINATE THE
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT.
THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE
GOING TO BRING ABOUT THE END OF
THIS PROJECT IN ITS PRESENT
FORM.
AND THE COMPARISON WITH THE
SOVIET UNION, BY THE WAY, SO
THAT NOBODY MISUNDERSTANDS IT,
IS NOT ON IDEOLOGY OR CONTENT.
IT IS ON THE NATURE AND SPEED OF
THE LIKELY COLLAPSE OF THE
PROJECT.
AND THE REASON THAT THE
COMPARISON IS VALID IS THAT BOTH
INSTITUTIONS HAVE LOST
LEGITIMACY.
YOU KNOW, JOHN JACQUES ROUSSEAU
SAID ONCE THAT THE SINGLE MOST
DIFFICULT THING TO ACHIEVE IN
ALL OF POLITICS IS LEGITIMACY
FOR POWER.
AND THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS
PATENTLY LOST THAT, AND IT'S
LOST IT RIGHT ACROSS THE MEMBER
STATES.
BRITAIN HAPPENS TO BE THE FIRST
ONE TO BE LEAVING.
I'M HALF DUTCH.
THE FIRST TEXT MESSAGE THAT I
GOT ON THE MORNING OF OUR VOTE
DIDN'T COME FROM ANYBODY IN
ENGLAND.
IT CAME FROM ONE OF MY DUTCH
FRIENDS SAYING WE'RE GOING TO BE
NEXT.
THIS IS UNSTOPPABLE.
AND SO IT'S THE LOSS OF
FUNDAMENTAL LEGITIMACY, AND THE
FACT THAT THE PROJECT IS
CONSTRUCTED, AN ELITE PROJECT,
WHICH HAS VERY LITTLE RESPECT
FOR THE VIEWS OF PEOPLE.
JUST FRANKLY AS THE REMAINERS
HAVE VERY LITTLE RESPECT FOR THE
PEOPLE WHO VOTED TO LEAVE.
THEY THINK THAT SOMEHOW WE ARE
ALL THICK OR MISLED OR
SOMETHING.
NOT SO.
AND THAT IS WHY THEY... THAT IS
WHY PROJECT FEAR DIDN'T WORK THE
FIRST TIME.
THAT'S WHY IT'S NOT WORKING NOW.
AND THE MORE THAT THEY PULL OUT
BUSINESSPEOPLE AND THE BANK OF
ENGLAND AND ALL THESE PEOPLE TO
SAY IT'S ALL GOING TO BE A
DISASTER, IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE
AT ALL.
PEOPLE ARE NOT IMPRESSED BY THAT
BECAUSE THEY VOTED TO LEAVE ON A
MATTER OF PRINCIPLE, AND WHAT IS
MOST WORRYING ABOUT THE DEAL, AS
I AND MY COLLEAGUES IN VETERANS
FOR BRITAIN, AS I WORKED IN THE
BRITISH ARMED FORCES GETTING ON
40 YEARS NOW, HAVE WARNED AND AS
WAS MADE VERY CLEAR BY THE
FORMER CHIEF OF THE SECRET
INTELLIGENCE AND THE CHIEF OF
THE DEFENCE STAFF, RICHARD DEAR
LOVE AND THE... LORD GUTHRIE IS
AT THE HEART OF THE DEAL THERE
IS A FUNDAMENTAL COMPROMISE OF
BRITISH NATIONAL SECURITY, WHICH
WILL AFFECT YOUR COUNTRY TOO,
BECAUSE IT WOULD DAMAGE THE FIVE
EYES INTELLIGENCE ALLIANCE,
WHICH IS THE VERY BEDROCK OF THE
SECURITY OF THE WESTERN WORLD.
AND WHY?
BECAUSE MRS. MAY WANTED TO OFFER
THIS AS A SORT OF PLEA TO BE
GIVEN SOMETHING WHICH THE EU WAS
NEVER GOING TO GIVE HER, WHICH
WAS THE DEAL THAT SHE WANTED.

Steve says OKAY, LET ME JUMP IN
HERE BECAUSE WITH TIME RUNNING
OUT I WANT YOUR VIEW, RANDALL,
ON A SECOND REFERENDUM, THE
ADVISABILITY OF DOING THAT.

Randall says YEAH, SURE.
WELL, ON THE ISSUE OF COLLAPSE,
I WOULD AGAIN SIMPLY REFER TO
THE INCREDIBLY STRONG SUPPORT
THE EU ENJOYS IN PUBLIC OPINION,
AND HE'S QUITE RIGHT, THE FAR
RIGHT IS GOING TO DO WELL IN THE
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, AND MANY OF
THEM, INCLUDING THE PRO-NATIONAL
IN FRANCE, WANT A DIFFERENT EU,
NOT OUT OF THE EU, AND THAT IS
QUITE A FUNDAMENTAL DISTINCTION.
ON THE ISSUE OF THE REFERENDUM,
THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE, WELL,
THE WILL OF A PEOPLE, THE
ARGUMENT THAT IT'S EXPRESSED
ONCE AND NEVER AGAIN IS AN
ARGUMENT OF DICTATORS AND
DEMIGOGS, BUT I WANT TO BACK UP.
THERE SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN A
REFERENDUM IN THE FIRST PLACE.
THEY HAVE NO PLACE WITHIN
WESTMINSTER DEMOCRACIES.
IF A PARTY WANTED TO LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION, IT COULD HAVE
PUT IT IN THE MANIFESTO AND PUT
IT TO THE BRITISH PEOPLE IN AN
ELECTION, WHICH TO THE CREDIT
THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE
PARTY WANTED TO DO.
THE REFERENDUM WAS CALLED THIS
TIME LIKE IT WAS CALLED IN THE
1970S TO AVOID A SPLIT WITHIN
THE PARTY.
LABOUR IN THE 1970S, THEY... IN
2016.

Steve says THAT WAS CAMERON'S
MISTAKE.

Randall says IT WAS A HUGE MISTAKE, AND HE
WAS SOLVING A PROBLEM IN THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY, NOT A
PROBLEM IN THE COUNTRY.

Steve says BUT HE DID IT.

The caption changes to "Connect with us: Twitter: @theagenda; Facebook, agendaconnect@tvo.org, Instagram."

Randall says I'M GOING TO FINISH THIS
POINT.
IF IT IS THE WILL OF A PEOPLE,
THAT IS THE WILL, LET THEM
EXPRESS IT AGAIN.
LET THEM... IF THEY WANT TO
CHANGE THEIR MIND NOW THAT WE
KNOW WHAT BREXIT IS GOING TO
LOOK LIKE.
IF THEY WANT TO VOTE AGAIN, THEY
CAN.
THE LEVERS OPPOSE ANOTHER
REFERENDUM BECAUSE THEY THINK
THEY'RE GOING TO LOSE.
THAT'S WHY THEY'RE AFRAID OF THE
PEOPLE TO WHOM WE HEAR... ABOUT
WHOM WE HEAR SUCH PRAISE SO
OFTEN.
LET'S ASK THEM AGAIN.

Steve says GWYTHIAN?

Gwythian says THIS IS NONSENSE.
IF WE DID HAVE A SECOND
REFERENDUM, I THINK THE RESULTS
WOULD BE EVEN MORE STRONGLY TO
LEAVE BECAUSE BRITISH PEOPLE
WILL NOT BE BULLIED.
THEY KNOW PERFECTLY WELL THAT
THEY WERE ASKED AND THEY GAVE
THE ANSWER.
NOW LOOK, WE CAN'T SPEND THE
PRECIOUS TIME WE'VE GOT LOOKING
BACKWARDS.
THE FACT IS THAT PARLIAMENT
HANDED THIS DECISION BACK TO THE
PEOPLE.
YOU MAY OR MAY NOT LIKE
REFERENDUMS.
THAT'S BESIDE THE POINT.
MY VIEWS ARE BESIDE THE POINT AS
WELL.
THE FACT IS IT HAPPENED.
THE GOVERNMENT SAID IT'S YOUR
DECISION AND WE WILL EXECUTE IT.
THERE WAS THEN AN ATTEMPT BY
MRS. MAY TO MAKE A SORT OF 48-52
DEAL ON SOVEREIGNTY, WHICH YOU
CANNOT DO.
IT'S EITHER ONE OR THE OTHER.
THE NOTION, THINK OF IT,
RANDALL, IN TERMS OF A GENERAL
ELECTION IN CANADA.
SO YOU GET A RESULT THAT'S CLOSE
AND YOU DON'T LIKE THE
GOVERNMENT YOU'VE GOT, SO YOU
SAY, OH, FINE, WE DON'T ACTUALLY
LIKE THIS GENERAL ELECTION
RESULT, SO LET'S HAVE ANOTHER
ONE.
I MEAN, ARE WE GOING TO HAVE THE
BEST OF THREE?
ARE WE GOING TO HAVE THE BEST OF
FIVE?
THIS IS NONSENSE, AND I DON'T
THINK IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

Steve says GWYTHIAN, LET ME JUMP
IN BECAUSE WE'RE DOWN TO... I
WANT TO KNOW FINALLY FROM YOU, I
SUSPECT ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND
WHEN WE THINK OF THE UNITED
KINGDOM WE THINK OF THE FORMER
EMPIRE, WE THINK OF CHURCHILL,
WE THINK OF SUCCESS IN WORLD WAR
II, PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY,
DEFEATING THE NAZIS, ET CETERA.
I'D LIKE TO KNOW WHAT IN YOUR
VIEW YOU THINK MOST PEOPLE
AROUND THE WORLD NOW THINK OF
THE UNITED KINGDOM GIVEN
EVERYTHING THAT'S GONE ON OVER
THE PAST 500 DAYS.

The caption changes to "Peering across the pond."

Gwythian says WELL, I THINK IT'S A
HUMILIATION, A NATIONAL
HUMILIATION THE WAY THIS
GOVERNMENT AND MRS. MAY HAS
BOTCHED ITS CONDUCT IN THE
NEGOTIATIONS.
WHAT WE NEED TO DO IS SIMPLY, AS
I WAS TOLD WHEN I WAS BRIEFING
ON THE DEFENCE AND SECURITY
ASPECTS ON CAPITOL HILL NOT LONG
AGO, GET OFF OUR KNEES AND
REJOIN THE WORLD.
WE ARE THE WORLD'S FIFTH LARGEST
ECONOMY.
WE ARE THE WORLD'S SECOND MOST
GEOPOLITICALLY POWER.
WE ARE BY FAR AND AWAY THE
LEADING SOFT POWER IN EUROPE.
AND WE CAN MAKE A PERFECTLY GOOD
AMICABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
FAILING EUROPEAN UNION BY SIMPLY
OFFERING THEM THE SAME TERMS
WHICH WE TRADE WITH THE REST OF
THE WORLD.

Steve says RANDALL, LAST 30
SECONDS TO YOU.
SAME QUESTION.

Randall says I AGREE THAT GWYTHIAN HAS
MADE ITSELF INTO THE LAUGHING
STOCK.
I DON'T AGREE THAT'S BECAUSE
MRS. MAY, THERESA MAY, PRIME
MINISTER MAY HAS BEEN TRYING TO
PLEASE BOTH SIDES.
SHE'S BEEN ABSOLUTELY CRAVEN IN
HER APPROACH TO THE HARD LINE
BREXITEERS.
IN HER LANCASTER SPEECH, HER RED
LINE, SHE BOXED HERSELF IN AND
THAT'S WHY WE ARE IN THE
POSITION WE'RE IN NOW, AND
THAT'S WHY WE'RE FACING I THINK
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A HARD
BREXIT, COMPLETELY OUT, OR
REMAIN.
ON THE ISSUE OF HOW THE U.K. IS
REGARDED, THE ODD THING ABOUT
THIS DEBATE IS YOU... MANY
PEOPLE, I INCLUDE GWYTHIAN WHO
SEEMED REASONABLE, WHO SUPPORT
LEAVE WITHIN THE UNITED KINGDOM,
OUTSIDE THE UNITED KINGDOM
GOVERNMENTS, ACADEMICS,
ACTIVISTS, FRIENDS OF THE UNITED
KINGDOM, THERE IS NOT A
REASONABLE PERSON WHO REGARDS
THIS AS A GOOD IDEA.
BLOOMBERG YESTERDAY AGAIN
REPEATED HIS CLAIM, THIS WAS THE
DUMBEST THING THAT ANY COUNTRY
HAS DONE UNTIL THE AMERICANS
TRUMPED THEM.
[Laughter]
AND SO, YOU KNOW, THE MAJORITY
IS NOT ALWAYS RIGHT, BUT
GWYTHIAN DOES NOT HAVE THE
WEIGHT OF INTERNATIONAL OPINION
ON HIS SIDE.

Steve says GENTLEMEN, I'M GOING TO...

Gwythian says I CAN'T AGREE ON THAT AT ALL.

The caption changes to "Producer: Harrison Lowman, @harrisonlowman."

Steve says I'M GOING TO JUMP IN
THERE AND THANK YOU BOTH FOR
COMING ON TO TVO TONIGHT FOR WHO
WAS MOSTLY A CIVILIZED DEBATE ON
CERTAINLY ONE OF THE HOTTEST AND
MOST FASCINATED TOPICS IN THE
WORLD TODAY.
GWYTHIAN PRINS, LONDON SCHOOL OF
ECONOMICS, RANDALL HANSEN, MUNK
SCHOOL OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS AND
PUBLIC POLICY, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO.
THANKS, YOU TWO.

Randall says Thank you.

Gwythian says THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
GOOD-BYE.

Watch: Bracing for Brexit