Transcript: Winning Elections by Populist Demand | May 29, 2018

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, purple gingham shirt, and checked purple tie.

A caption on screen reads "Winning elections by populist demand."
Then, it changes to "Ontario 2018 election."

Steve says IN BRITAIN, THE U.S.,
EVEN OUR OWN FEDERAL ELECTION
IN 2015, RESULTS FROM MAJOR
CONSULTATIONS WITH THE
RESPECTIVE ELECTORATES
DEFIED EXPECTATIONS ABOUT WHO
WOULD WIN AND WHY.
NIK NANOS HAS BEEN POLLING
CANADIANS FOR COMING ON THREE
DECADES NOW AND HAS TURNED HIS
EXPERTISE TO UNDERSTANDING
WHAT'S GOING ON IN HIS NEW BOOK,
"THE AGE OF VOTER RAGE: TRUMP,
TRUDEAU, FARAGE, CORBYN AND
MACRON - THE TYRANNY OF SMALL
NUMBERS."
NIK NANOS IS FOUNDING CHAIRMAN
OF NANOS RESEARCH AND HE JOINS
US NOW FROM THE NATION'S CAPITAL
WITH MORE.

Nik is in his late forties, clean-shaven, with short gray hair. He's wearing a gray suit, white shirt, and striped red and blue tie.
A picture of his book appears briefly on screen. The cover features a drawing of raised fists, one of which holds a lit torch.

Steve continues NIK, GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.
HOW ARE YOU DOING?

Nik says IT'S GOOD TO JOIN YOU, STEVE.

Steve says I WANT TO START WITH
THE SUBTITLE OF THE BOOK BECAUSE
THAT'S THE WACKIEST SUBTITLE
I'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME, AND I
WANT TO KNOW WHAT ALL OF THOSE
DIFFERENT POLITICIANS FROM
DIFFERENT PLACES, DIFFERENT
PARTIES AND DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
OBVIOUSLY HAVE IN COMMON THAT
MADE THEM THE FOCUS OF YOUR BOOK.

The caption changes to "Nik Nanos. Author, 'The age of voter rage.'"
Then, it changes again to "Stoking the flames of discontent."

Nik says YEAH, THAT'S THE REAL KIND OF
EYE-POPPER.
WHEN YOU UNPACK THE NUMBERS IN
TERMS OF WHAT HAPPENED IN ALL
THESE VERY DIFFERENT ELECTIONS,
THERE IS ONE COMMONALITY, AND
THAT COMMONALITY HAS TO DO WITH
AN UNDERLYING CURRENT OF
ECONOMIC ANXIETY.
AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THAT
WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF THESE
ECONOMIC NUMBERS IN TERMS OF
WHAT'S GOING ON, WHETHER IT'S
UNEMPLOYMENT OR THE DECLINE OF
REAL WAGES OR PEOPLE LOSING
THEIR HOMES, OR JUST LACK OF
HOPE, THAT WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS
THAT THIS UNDERCURRENT OF
ANXIETY AND ECONOMIC PESSIMISM
IS DRIVING AND INFLUENCING THE
BEHAVIOUR OF VOTERS, AND IT'S
SOMETHING THAT POLITICIANS, SOME
POLITICIANS IN WHAT I WOULD SAY
SUCCESSFUL POLITICIANS ARE
STARTING TO TRY TO TAP INTO.
SO WE HAVE TO THINK OF THIS
MALAISE OUT THERE IN TERMS OF
THE ECONOMY AND POLITICIANS
SEEING THAT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
ACTIVATE VOTERS AND TO MOTIVATE
VOTERS.

Steve says LET ME BRING THAT HOME
TO ONTARIO.
YOU KNOW, OF COURSE, THE CURRENT
GOVERNMENT TAKES THE POSITION
THAT INTEREST RATES ARE LOW, THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS THE LOWEST
IT'S BEEN IN 20 YEARS.
WHAT'S THE OTHER ONE THEY ALWAYS
SAY.
OH, A MILLION NEW JOBS HAVE BEEN
CREATED IN THE PROVINCE OF
ONTARIO SINCE THE END OF THE
GREAT RECESSION.
I MEAN, BY INDEPENDENT METRICS,
YOU COULD SAY THINGS ARE PRETTY
GOOD RIGHT NOW.
SO WHERE IS ALL THIS ANGER
COMING FROM?

The caption changes to "Nik Nanos. Nanos Research."

Nik says WELL, YOU KNOW, THOSE THINGS,
THE MACROECONOMIC NUMBERS DO NOT
CONVERT INTO REALITY IN TERMS OF
HOW PEOPLE FEEL, AND THIS IS
WHERE WE GET THE DISCONNECT.
SO PEOPLE SAY GREAT ECONOMIC
NUMBERS AND THEY SAY IT DOESN'T
FEEL LIKE THAT.
YOU KNOW, IN POLLING THAT WE'VE
DONE WHERE WE ASK ONTARIANS, FOR
EXAMPLE, ON WHETHER THEY THINK
THE NEXT GENERATION OF ONTARIANS
WILL HAVE A HIGHER, LOWER OR THE
SAME STANDARD OF LIVING, ONLY
12 percent, THAT'S 12 percent THINK THE NEXT
GENERATION OF ONTARIANS WILL
HAVE A HIGHER STANDARD OF
LIVING.
SIX OF EVERY TEN ONTARIANS THINK
THAT THEIR CHILDREN AND THEIR
CHILDREN'S CHILDREN WILL HAVE A
LOWER STANDARD OF LIVING.
WHEN YOU SEE THOSE MACROECONOMIC
NUMBERS YOU SEE ONE THING, BUT
THE WAY PEOPLE FEEL IS
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT.
IT'S KIND OF LIKE JOYLESS
PROSPERITY.
THEY READ THE NEWSPAPER AND HEAR
FROM GOVERNMENTS HOW WELL THINGS
SHOULD BE FOR THEM, BUT IT JUST
DOES NOT FEEL RIGHT IN TERMS OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE FUTURE, AND I
THINK THIS EMOTIONAL DISCONNECT
BETWEEN WHAT I'LL SAY THE
MACROECONOMIC NUMBERS AND HOW
PEOPLE FEEL BECAUSE THEY'RE
WORRIED ABOUT THEIR JOB, THEY'RE
WORRIED ABOUT WHETHER THEIR KIDS
ARE GOING TO HAVE JOBS, IS WHAT
SOME OF THESE POLITICIANS, THESE
POPULOUS-STYLE POLITICIANS ARE
TAPPING INTO IN ORDER TO KIND OF
GALVANIZE SUPPORT AROUND THEM
AND TO BASICALLY DO THAT TO SEND
A MESSAGE TO THE ESTABLISHMENT
TO SAY, YOU KNOW WHAT, YEAH, WE
HEAR ALL THESE MACROECONOMIC
NUMBERS, BUT YOU KNOW WHAT, YOU
KNOW, YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT THE
FUTURE, YOU'RE TRYING TO MAKE
ENDS MEET.
THE COST OF LIVING IS GOING UP,
AND YOU'RE JUST SCRAPING THROUGH
AND ALONG COMES A POLITICIAN
THAT TRIES TO TAP INTO THAT.

Steve says WELL, LET'S DO A
LITTLE COMPARING AND
CONTRASTING.
OF ALL OF THOSE ELECTIONS THAT
YOU MENTION IN THE SUB-TITLE OF
YOUR BOOK, THE TRUMP ONE,
TRUDEAU, FARAGE, WHICH IS THE
UNITED KINGDOM, MACRON IN
FRANCE, WHICH ONE SEEMS TO BE A
TEMPLATE FOR WHAT WE'RE GOING
THROUGH IN ONTARIO RIGHT NOW?

Nik says IT DEPENDS ON IF YOU'RE
LOOKING AT.
IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT RALPH FORD...

Steve says YOU MEANT DOUG FORD.

Nik says YES, DOUG FORD.
IF YOU LOOK AT HIM AND HIS STYLE
OF POPULISM, IT'S VERY SIMILAR
TO WHAT TRUMP OR NIGEL FARAGE
WHO IS LEADER OF THE U.K.
INDEPENDENCE PARTY.
THINK OF IT THIS WAY.
IF YOU'RE DOUG FORD, YOU'RE
BASICALLY... YOUR MESSAGE IS
QUEEN'S PARK NEEDS TO BE SMASHED
INTO LITTLE BITS.
THE SYSTEM IS BROKEN.
YOU'VE GOT THESE FAT CAT
EXECUTIVES WHO ARE GETTING PAID
TOO MUCH AND CRONYISM POLITICS,
WELL, THAT SOUNDS A LOT LIKE
DONALD TRUMP.
AND THEN ON TOP OF THAT IS WHAT
I'LL SAY THE FORD PERSONALITY,
RIGHT, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO NIGEL
FARAGE, WHICH IS ALSO AN
ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIAN.
YOU HAVE THE ANGER AND THE
PERSONALITY WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING
AT DOUG FORD.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOMEONE LIKE
ANDREA HORWATH, YOU GET A
DIFFERENT KIND OF POPULISM.
IT'S MORE EMPATHETIC POPULISM
WHERE SHE'S SAYING, YOU KNOW, I
I KNOW YOUNG PEOPLE ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RIGHT NOW.
I KNOW THAT IT'S HARD TO PAY
YOUR BILLS, AND FROM HER
PERSPECTIVE, SHE'S ADVANCING A
PROGRESSIVE ALTERNATIVE TO THE
LIBERALS AND ALSO TO DOUG FORD,
AND SO IT'S NOT AN ANGRY TYPE OF
POPULISM, BUT IT'S AN EMPATHETIC
ONE, WHERE SHE KIND OF TANS INTO
"I KNOW THAT IT'S... TAPS INTO
"I KNOW IT'S TOUGH OUT THERE AND
HERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS FOR
DEALING WITH KIND OF THE ANXIETY
THAT YOU HAVE."

Steve says BUT THEY ARE BOTH
ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT MOVEMENTS IN
SOME RESPECTS, YES?

The caption changes to "Two sides to the anti-establishment."

Nik says YES.
THEY ARE BOTH
ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT, AND THEY
BOTH TAP INTO ECONOMIC ANXIETY,
AND THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT
ARE COMMON BETWEEN BOTH OF THOSE
CAMPAIGNS.
SO YOU JUST SEE A DIFFERENT TYPE
OF STYLE, AND I THINK THOSE
DIFFERENT STYLES HAVE TO DO WITH
THE DIFFERENT PERSONALITIES
BETWEEN DOUG FORD AND ANDREA
HORWATH.

Steve says HERE'S A SNIPPET FROM
YOUR BOOK THAT WE'RE GOING TO
READ NOW, NIK...

A quote appears on screen, under the title "Appealing to emotion." The quote reads "The Trump campaign proved that appealing to emotion and voter rage was a much cheaper campaign strategy than engaging and informing citizens of the value and rationality of a policy platform."
Quoted from Nik Nanos, "The age of voter rage." 2018.

Steve says I MEAN, THAT... THAT'S A
PERENNIAL THING THAT POINTY
HEADS LIKE ME HAVE TO GET
THROUGH OUR POINTY HEADS, WHICH
IS WHAT WE WANT TO SPEND A LOT
OF TIME TALKING ABOUT POLICY AND
MAKING THOSE KINDS OF COMPARISON
SHOPPING EXERCISES.
VOTERS ARE MOTIVATED BY STUFF
THAT'S JUST MUCH MORE IN THE
GUT, ISN'T THAT RIGHT?

The caption changes to "tvo.org/theagenda."

Nik says OH, EXACTLY.
WELL, YOU KNOW, THE THING IS
LOOK AT DONALD TRUMP.
HE WAS VERY GOOD AT KIND OF
USING SYMBOLIC MESSAGING.
YOU KNOW, THINK OF IT THIS WAY:
IT'S KIND OF LIKE SYMBOLIC
MESSAGE AND LITERAL MESSAGING.
LITERAL MESSAGING HAS TO DO WITH
WHAT WE JUST TALKED ABOUT.
YOU READ THE POLICY PLATFORM,
YOU WEIGH THE STRENGTHS AND
WEAKNESSES OF THE PLATFORM.
DO THE NUMBERS ADD UP?
IS IT RATIONAL?
AND SYMBOLIC POLITICS KIND OF
SETS ASIDE ALL THOSE KIND OF
INTELLECTUAL EXERCISES, AND YOU
KNOW, FOR DONALD TRUMP, FOR
EXAMPLE, YOU LOOK AT HIS PROMISE
OR HIS EFFORT TO BUILD THE WALL.
IF YOU WERE AN AMERICAN VOTER
AND LITERALLY INTERPRETED THAT,
YOU'D SAY STUFF LIKE, WELL, HOW
MUCH WILL THAT WALL COST?
CAN WE BUILD THAT?
WILL WE ACCOMPLISH OUR PUBLIC
POLICY OBJECTIVES, AND THEN YOU
WOULD MAYBE CONCLUDE THAT'S NOT
FEASIBLE OR A STUPID PROMISE TO
MAKE.
BUT IF YOU ARE A VOTER THAT WAS
INTERPRETING THINGS MORE
EMOTIONALLY AND SYMBOLICALLY,
YOU'D LOOK AT THE WALL AND
FORGET ABOUT ALL THE DETAILS,
COST, WHETHER IT'S FEASIBLE OR
NOT.
AND YOU'D TUNE INTO WHAT IT
SYMBOLICALLY REPRESENTS IN TERMS
OF WHAT YOU THINK IS WRONG, AND
IN DONALD TRUMP'S CASE, IT HAD
TO DO WITH KEEPING FOREIGNERS
OUT AND TRYING TO PROTECT
AMERICAN JOBS.
SO LET'S SKIP OVER INTO ONTARIO.
YOU KNOW, DOUG FORD WAS VERY
CLEVER IN HIS KIND OF LITTLE
DEVICE, YOU KNOW, $6 MILLION
MAN, BECAUSE HE HAD USED THAT AS
KIND OF A SYMBOL, FROM HIS
PERSPECTIVE, OF WHAT'S WRONG
WITH QUEEN'S PARK.
AND YOU KNOW, HE DIDN'T GET
INTO, WELL, WHAT'S THE COST TO
TERMINATE THAT PERSON.
IS THAT PERSON PAID A PROPER
WAGE?
ARE THEY DOING A GOOD JOB?
IT DIDN'T REALLY MATTER TO
DONALD TRUMP AND IT DOESN'T
MATTER TO PEOPLE... IT DIDN'T
REALLY MATTER MUCH TO DOUG FORD,
AND IT DOESN'T MATTER A LOT TO
MANY OF DOUG FORD'S FOLLOWERS
BECAUSE THAT'S ALL THEY'RE
SAYING IS, YOU KNOW, YOU'RE
RIGHT.
THAT IS INDICATIVE OF WHAT'S
WRONG WITH QUEEN'S PARK, AND
THEY'RE NOT HOT ON THE DETAILS.
AND THE OTHER INTERESTING THING
ABOUT THIS TYPE OF POLITICS,
IT'S CHEAP, BECAUSE IF PEOPLE
ARE ANGRY, YOU DO NOT NEED TO
PERSUADE THEM.
YOU DO NOT NEED TO REMIND THEM
TO VOTE.
YOU DO NOT NEED THEM TO... YOU
DO NOT NEED TO EVEN GIVE THEM A
RIDE TO THE POLLS BECAUSE WHEN
THEY'RE ANGRY, THEY GET UP OFF
THE COUCH AND THEY GO OUT AND
THEY WANT TO SEND A MESSAGE AND
THEY WANT TO PUNISH THE
ESTABLISHMENT.
ONE OF THE BIG EYE-POPPING
NUMBERS IN THE BOOK, AND ONE
THING THAT REALLY SURPRISED ME,
WAS HOW MUCH HILLARY CLINTON
OUTSPENT DONALD TRUMP.
SHE SPENT $400 MILLION MORE, NOT
$400 MILLION, $400 MILLION MORE
THAN DONALD TRUMP, AND HE
MANAGED TO WIN THE ELECTION.
SO IN THAT SENSE, WHY WE'RE
SEEING COPY CATS IS BECAUSE THIS
IS A VERY COST-EFFECTIVE TYPE OF
POLITICS.
YOU DON'T HAVE TO SPEND A LOT OF
MONEY ON DETAIL.
YOU JUST NEED TO PRESS THE RIGHT
HOT BUTTON AND KIND OF TWEAK AND
KIND OF ACTIVATE THAT ECONOMIC
ANXIETY FOR PEOPLE TO COME OUT
AND VOTE.

Steve says HAVING SAID THAT, I DO
REMEMBER HAVING THE FORMER MAYOR
OF TORONTO, DAVID CROMBIE, ON
THIS PROGRAM AND HE WASN'T SAID
ANGER IS NOT A GOOD GOVERNING
PHILOSOPHY.
I UNDERSTAND HOW IT MOTIVATES
PEOPLE TO COME TO THE POLLS, BUT
I WONDER WHETHER YOU SEE
ANYTHING DANGEROUS IN
GOVERNMENTS THAT ARE CONSTANTLY
ELECTED BECAUSE THE ELECTORATE
IS JUST SO furious SO THEY'RE
GOING TO THROW ONE OUT, BRING
ANOTHER ONE IN, HAVE THEIR
HEARTS BROKEN AGAIN, THROW THEM
OUT, BRING ANOTHER ONE IN.
IS THERE ANYTHING DANGEROUS
ABOUT THIS PATTERN?

The caption changes to "Nik Nanos, @niknanos."
Then, it changes again to "Fear and loathing in politics."

Nik says WELL, THE ONE THING THAT IS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ABOUT THIS
PATTERN IS THAT ANGER IS NOT AN
IDEOLOGY OR A VISION OR A SET OF
IDEALS.
IT'S JUST STRAIGHT EMOTION, AND
IT'S ABOUT PUNISHMENT.
YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU LOOK AT A LOT
OF THESE DIFFERENT TYPE OF
POPULOUS MOVEMENTS ACROSS ALL
THESE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES, MANY
TIMES ACADEMICS WOULD SAY THAT
THEY ARE THIN ON IDEOLOGY, THAT
THEY CAN BE EITHER FROM THE
RIGHT WING OR THE LEFT WING, BUT
IDEOLOGY DOESN'T REALLY MEAN A
LOT.
SO YOU KNOW, I THINK HE'S
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
THEY CAN BE DANGEROUS FROM THE
PERSPECTIVE OF THERE'S NOT
NECESSARILY A GOVERNING VISION
FOR THE FUTURE.
IT'S MORE ABOUT PUNISHING FOR
WRONGS OF THE PAST.
AND I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY ONE
OF THE BIG TRAPS, AND THE OTHER
THING IS THAT WE SEE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE IF YOU'RE A
POPULOUS-STYLE POLITICIAN,
YOU'RE BASICALLY AGAINST
EVERYTHING.
YOU'RE NOT NECESSARILY FOR
ANYTHING, EXCEPT BEING AN
ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIAN.

The caption changes to "Connect with us: TVO.org. Twitter: @theagenda; Facebook, YouTube, Periscope, Instagram."

Steve says SO, NIK, IN YOUR VIEW
IS IT POINTLESS FOR POLITICIANS
TO RUN CAMPAIGNS ON THE BASIS OF
GOOD MANAGEMENT, GOOD
GOVERNANCE, THOUGHTFUL IDEAS, AN
INTELLECTUAL APPROACH TO ISSUES?
DOES THAT GET YOU ANYWHERE THESE
DAYS?

Nik says I THINK SO.
WE HAVE TO THINK OF IT AS KIND
OF LIKE COUNTRY AND WESTERN
MUSIC.
WE CAN EMBRACE BOTH OF THOSE
TYPES OF THINGS.
I THINK THE SUCCESSFUL... I
THINK THE POLITICIANS THAT JUST
FOCUS ON PLATFORM AND IDEAS AND
KIND OF WHAT I'LL SAY THE
LITERARY AND INTELLECTUAL SIDE,
IT'S VERY IMPORTANT, BUT IT'S
NOT ENOUGH, I THINK, TO WIN A
MAJORITY GOVERNMENT NOW.
TO WIN A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
NOW, YOU NEED A MIX OF BOTH
LITERAL MESSAGING AND SYMBOLIC
MESSAGING SO THAT YOU CANNOT
ONLY CONNECT INTELLECTUALLY WITH
VOTERS WHO WANT TO KNOW THE
DETAILS AND WANT TO GO THROUGH
THE PLATFORM AND WANT TO FEEL
COMFORTABLE THAT THEY'RE MAKING
THE RIGHT DECISION, BUT TO ALSO
CONNECT WITH VOTERS WHO ARE MORE
INTO SYMBOLIC MESSAGING AND WANT
TO EMOTIONALLY CONNECT WITH
LEADERS IN ORDER TO KIND OF MAKE
CHANGE, BECAUSE YOU KNOW WHAT,
THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH
GOVERNMENTS CHANGING, AND I
THINK IT'S HEALTHY IN DEMOCRACY,
BUT I THINK, YOU KNOW, IT'S
DANGEROUS... RIGHT NOW I THINK
LITERAL MESSAGING ONLY IS NOT
ENOUGH, AND SYMBOLIC MESSAGING
ONLY IS DANGEROUS.
YOU NEED TO MIX BOTH OF THOSE
TOGETHER IN WHAT I'LL SAY A NEW
COALITION THAT KIND OF SPEAKS TO
THE GREATEST NUMBER OF CITIZENS
AND VOTERS IN ORDER TO HAVE
DECISIONS THAT I THINK ARE MORE
BALANCED.

The caption changes to "Tyranny of small numbers."

Steve says I SHOULD GET YOUR TAKE
WHILE YOU'RE HERE ON THE BIGGEST
MISCONCEPTIONS AROUND POPULISM,
BECAUSE SO-CALLED POPULIST
MOVEMENTS ARE REALLY IN
ASCENSION ALL OVER THE WORLD
RIGHT NOW, AND WE HAVE TWO
POPULOUS PARTIES RUNNING RIGHT
NOW, NDP FROM THE LEFT, FORD
NATIONS, PROGRESSIVE
CONSERVATIVES FROM THE RIGHT.
WHAT'S THE BIGGEST MISCONCEPTION
ABOUT POPULISM AS WE UNDERSTAND
IT TODAY?

Nik says WELL, THE BIGGEST
MISCONCEPTION IS THAT LIKE AN
ALT RIGHT MOVEMENT THAT IS
EXCLUSIVELY ON ONE SIDE OF THE
POLITICAL SPECTRUM.
THAT'S THE BIGGEST
MISCONCEPTION.
THE OTHER MISCONCEPTION, THIS
HAS TO DO WITH THE TITLE OF THE
BOOK, THE TYRANNY OF SMALL
NUMBERS, IS THAT IT DOES NOT
TAKE A LOT OF VOTERS TO CHANGE
THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION.
YOU KNOW, THE REALITY IS IF ONE
OUT OF EVERY 20 VOTERS SWING
FROM ONE PARTY TO ANOTHER, THAT
CAN REALISTICALLY DECIDE THE
OUTCOME, BECAUSE THAT'S 5 percent IN A
TOTAL SWING OF 10 percent.
WE HAVE TO THINK OF IT, IT
DOESN'T TAKE A LOT TO SHAPE THE
OUTCOME OF ELECTIONS AND
INFLUENCE GOVERNMENTS AND HOW
THEY GOVERN.
WE SHOULDN'T THINK EVERYBODY'S
ANGRY BECAUSE NOT EVERYBODY IS
ANGRY, BUT FOR THOSE VOTERS THAT
ARE ANGRY, THEY'RE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MESSAGING AND THEY ARE
LOOKING AROUND AND SHOPPING FOR
POLITICIANS IN ORDER TO SEND A
POWERFUL MESSAGE TO THE
ESTABLISHMENT THAT THEY DON'T
THINK THINGS ARE WORKING WELL.

Steve says IT SEEMS TO ME,
THOUGH, THAT ANDREA HORWATH'S
POPULIST APPROACH IS A DIFFERENT
POPULIST APPROACH FROM DOUG
FORD'S, WHICH TENDS TO BE, AS
YOU POINTED OUT, YOU KNOW, A LOT
ANGRIER IN ITS CONTENT.
ANDREA HORWATH HAS THE SMILE ON
HER FACE ALL THE TIME, WHEREVER
SHE GOES.
SHE SEEMS TO BE A... LIKE A
HAPPIER WARRIOR TYPE OF POPULIST
AT THE MOMENT.
DO YOU THINK I'VE GOT THAT RIGHT?

Nik says OH, I THINK SO.
AND THIS GOES BACK TO WHAT I WAS
TALKING ABOUT, MORE EMPATHETIC,
AND I THINK THE THING IS THAT
PROBABLY FITS HER PERSONALITY,
AND THAT ALSO FITS, I'LL CALL
IT, THE PERSONALITY OF THE NEW
DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN ONTARIO,
BECAUSE PEOPLE WOULD EXPECT THAT
PARTY TO BE MORE EMPATHETIC AND
SOCIALLY CONNECTED TO AVERAGE
ONTARIANS.
SO IN A WAY YOU HAVE A
CONFLUENCE OF STILL A POPULIST
TONE TAPPING INTO THAT ECONOMIC
ANXIETY AND SAYING THAT SHE
UNDERSTANDS AND THAT THE PARTY
UNDERSTANDS AND THAT THEY HAVE A
PLAN TO MOVE THINGS FORWARD, BUT
AT THE SAME TIME KNOWING THAT
IT'S JUST... IT'S MORE THAN JUST
SMILES.
SHE'S SPEAKING TO ONTARIANS AND
CONNECTING WITH THEM IN TERMS OF
HOW THEY FEEL ABOUT A LOT OF
ISSUES AND THE CONCERNS THAT
THEY HAVE.

Steve says AND JUST FINAL, NIK,
ABOUT A WEEK AND A HALF TO GO,
NINE DAYS TO GO UNTIL ELECTION DAY.
HOW BAKED IN DO YOU THINK THE
NUMBERS ARE OR HOW SUSCEPTIBLE
TO CHANGING ARE THEY STILL?

Nik says OH, YEAH.
OH, THERE'S A LOT OF CHANGE THAT
CAN HAPPEN.
ELECTIONS ARE KIND OF A LOT LIKE
CHRISTMAS SHOPPING.
THEY'RE THE PEOPLE THAT DECIDE
BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS SEASON
STARTS.
THERE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT DECIDE
IT IN DECEMBER.
ON THE WEEKEND BEFORE, AND THEN
THERE ARE THE LAST-MINUTE
SHOPPERS, AND I'LL TELL YOU,
BECAUSE OF THE ELECTION THAT
WE'RE HAVING NOW, I THINK
THERE'S GOING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
LAST-MINUTE SHOPPERS THAT WILL
WAIT UNTIL NOT JUST THE LAST
WEEKEND BUT THE LAST DAY OF THE
ELECTION TO FINALLY CAST A VOTE
BECAUSE DAY TO DAY THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHANGING, AND THE
LAST 10 DAYS THE SHAPE OF THE
ELECTION WAS VERY DIFFERENT THAN
IT IS TODAY, AND IT WILL BE VERY
DIFFERENT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND YOU KNOW, STEVE,
THE INTERESTING THING WHEN WE DO
POLLING ON THE LAST WEEKENDS OF
ELECTIONS, THE NUMBERS ARE
USUALLY DIFFERENT SATURDAY,
SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY, THEY'RE DIFFERENT
ALMOST EVERY DAY UNTIL THE VERY
LAST DAY. SO WE'RE GOING TO
HAVE TO TUNE INTO THE ELECTION
TO THE VERY END.

The caption changes to "Producer: Patricia Kozicka, @TrishKozicka."

Steve says THAT IS A DEAL, MY
FRIEND. NIK NANOS FROM NANOS
RESEARCH. THE NAME OF THE BOOK,
"THE AGE OF VOTER RAGE: TRUMP,
TRUDEAU, FARAGE, CORBYN AND
MACRON - THE TYRANNY OF SMALL
NUMBERS." GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON
TVO AGAIN, NIK. THANKS SO MUCH.

Nik says THANK YOU.

Watch: Winning Elections by Populist Demand