Transcript: The Changing Minds of Ontario Voters | May 24, 2018

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, white shirt, and purple tie.

A caption on screen reads "The changing minds of Ontario voters."
Then, it changes to "Ontario 2018 Election."

Steve says IF YOU STARTED THIS
ELECTION SEASON THINKING THAT
THE OUTCOME WAS OBVIOUS, YOU MAY
CURRENTLY BE LEARNING AN
IMPORTANT LESSON: CAMPAIGNS
MATTER. FOR SEVEN OF THE PAST
NINE ELECTIONS IN ONTARIO,
THE PARTY LEADING AT
THE BEGINNING DIDN'T WIN.
ERIN KELLY IS CEO OF ADVANCED
SYMBOLICS INC., WHOSE ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE RESEARCHER KNOWN AS
POLLY HAS BEEN SCOPING OUT WHAT
VOTERS ARE TALKING ABOUT AND
ERIN JOINS US NOW FOR AN UPDATE.

Erin is in her forties, with chin-length wavy blond hair. She's wearing a beige blazer over a black blouse.

Steve continues FIRST OF ALL, HELLO, WELCOME.

Erin says THANK YOU.

Steve says I HAVE TO SAY, SINCE
YOU WERE ON A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO, I'VE HAD MORE E-MAILS FROM
PEOPLE SAYING WHEN ARE YOU
HAVING HER ON AGAIN, SO THIS IS
A VERY ANTICIPATED APPEARANCE
THAT YOU HAVE HERE, AND LET'S
START WITH THE HORSE... WELL,
NO, BEFORE WE GET TO THE HORSE
RACE NUMBERS, FOR THOSE WHO
MISSED YOUR LAST APPEARANCE,
JUST EXPLAIN WHO POLLY IS AND
WHAT SHE DOES.

The caption changes to "Erin Kelly. Advanced Symbolics Inc."
Then, it changes again to "A new way to track."

Erin says POLLY IS AN ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE, AND SHE GOES OUT
TO IN THIS CASE ALL THE RIDINGS
IN ONTARIO AND CREATES
REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLES OF EACH
OF THOSE RIDINGS SO THAT SHE CAN
ACCURATELY GAUGE THE SENTIMENT
OF THE POPULATION AND SAY WHO IS
GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION.

Steve says THIS IS ALL OF THE 124
RIDINGS.

Erin says ALL OF THEM.

Steve says AND THIS WAY OF
GAUGING PUBLIC OPINION IS MUCH
MORE EFFECTIVE THAN TRADITIONAL
POLLING BECAUSE?

Erin says FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS.
FIRST OF ALL WE'RE DOING EACH
RIDING AND THE POPULAR VOTE, SO
YOU HAVE BOTH, AND THERE'S A BIG
DIFFERENCE, AS WE'LL DISCUSS TODAY.
AND THEY'RE ALL LONGITUDINAL, SO
WE CAN WATCH PEOPLE FOR THE
WHOLE YEAR, SEE WHAT CHANGES
THEIR MIND, SEE WHAT EFFECTS
THEM, WHAT KIND OF NEWS ITEMS
MIGHT CHANGE THEIR VOTE SO SHE
CAN MORE ACCURATELY PREDICT WHEN
SOMETHING NEW BREAKS, HOW LIKELY
IS THAT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
THE PARTY.
AND THE SAMPLE SIZES ARE MUCH,
MUCH LARGER THAN YOU WOULD SEE
IN A REGULAR POLL, REGULAR POLL
HAVE ABOUT 1500 PEOPLE,
DIFFERENT PEOPLE EACH WEEK.
WE HAVE OVER 100,000 PEOPLE IN
THIS ONTARIO ELECTION POLL NOW.
AND WE ARE LOOKING AT EVERY
SINGLE ONE OF THEM EVERY DAY AND
SEEING HOW THEY CHANGE.

Steve says IN WHICH CASE, WITHOUT
FURTHER ADO, LET US SHARE WHAT
POLLY HAS DISCOVERED ABOUT THE
CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS.
HERE ARE THE HORSE RACE NUMBERS
AS OF TODAY.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "Current standings."

A bar chart shows that the PC leads with 37.2 percent, followed closely by the NDP with 36.5 percent. Then the Liberal party has 21.4 percent and the Green party, 3.5 percent.

Steve reads data from the slate and says
YOU KNOW, OF COURSE, THE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES HAD A
BIG LEAD GOING IN.
THAT LEAD HAS SHRUNK.
THEY ARE NOW AT 37.2 percent.
THE NEW DEMOCRATS, WHO WERE WELL
BEHIND, ARE NOW NECK AND NECK
WITH THE PCS FOR FIRST PLACE.
THEY COME IN AT 36.5 percent.
THE LIBERAL VOTE HAS BASICALLY
CRATERED.
SO FAR.
IT'S AT 21.4 percent.
THE GREENS ARE AT 3.5 percent.
IF WE DO AN EXTRAPOLATION OF
THOSE NUMBERS INTO A SEAT COUNT,
YOU HAVE A PC MAJORITY
GOVERNMENT AT THE MOMENT.
73 TORY SEATS, 53 NEW DEMOCRATIC
SEATS AND ONE LIBERAL SEAT.
NO GREEN SEATS.
THAT'S AS OF NOW.
IT'S A WIPEOUT FOR THE LIBERALS.
WHAT DO YOU WANT TO TELL US
ABOUT THIS?

The caption changes to "A surge in the polls."

Erin says WELL, I THINK WHAT'S REALLY
INTERESTING IS THE PCS AND THE
NDP, IN TERMS OF THE POPULAR
VOTE, ARE STATISTICALLY EQUAL.
BUT WHEN YOU BREAK IT DOWN INTO
THE SEAT COUNT, THE PCS HAVE 23
MORE SEATS THAN THE NDP.

Steve says ON BASICALLY THE SAME
PERCENTAGE OF THE VOTE.

Erin says ON THE SAME PERCENTAGE OF THE
POPULAR VOTE.
SO DOUG FORD'S BASE AND THE
PEOPLE VOTING FOR DOUG FORD ARE
A MUCH MORE EFFICIENT VOTE THAN
WHAT WE'RE SEEING FOR ANDREA
HORWATH AND THE NDP.

The caption changes to "Comprehensive election coverage: tvo.org/OntarioElection."

Steve says EXPLAIN WHAT THAT
MEANS.
THE EFFICIENCY OF A VOTE REFERS
TO WHAT?

Erin says IN ORDER TO WIN THE RIDING,
OBVIOUSLY YOU HAVE TO HAVE YOUR
ELECTORATE GATHERED TOGETHER IN
BUNCHES IN THE RIDING SO THAT
YOU CAN WIN THE RIDING.
IF YOUR VOTE IS TOO SPREAD OUT,
12 percent HERE, 13 percent THERE, YOU'RE NOT
WINNING THE RIDING.
THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING TO THE NDP.
THEY ARE GETTING THE POPULAR
VOTE, BUT IT IS NOT BREAKING
DOWN AS EFFICIENTLY INTO RIDINGS
AS IT WAS FOR DOUG FORD.
IN THE BEGINNING WHEN SHE HAD
20 percent SHE WAS AS EFFICIENT AS DOUG
FORD, BUT AS SHE HAS GROWN, SHE
HAS LOST THAT EFFICIENCY.
SHE'S BEEN STEALING FROM THE
LIBERALS, WHICH THEY HAD AN
INEFFICIENT VOTE AS WELL.
SHE HASN'T BEEN BREAKING INTO
THAT PC BASE OF SUPPORT, AND
THAT'S WHAT SHE NEEDS TO DO TO
GET THAT EFFICIENT VOTE.

Erin says THIS IS A FEATURE OF FIRST
PAST THE POST, WHERE IF YOU GET
35 percent OF THE VOTE, YOUR OPPONENT
GETS 34, YOUR SECOND OPPONENT
GETS 33, AND YOU DO THAT OVER
124 RIDINGS, YOU CAN GET 100 percent OF
THE RIDINGS WITH 34 percent OF THE
VOTE.

Erin says THAT'S EXACTLY IT, EXACTLY
IT.

Steve says FUNNY WAY TO DO
BUSINESS, BUT THAT'S THE WAY
WE'VE BEEN DOING IT FOR 150
YEARS.
LET'S GO THROUGH A BIT OF AN
EXERCISE HERE WHERE WE CONSIDER
WHAT IF.
AND LET'S START WITH WHAT IF THE
NDP WERE TO STEAL, LET'S SAY, 5
PERCENTAGE POINTS OF VOTES FROM
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES.
WHAT WOULD THAT DO?
AND HERE ARE YOUR NUMBERS.
YOU SAY UNDER THOSE
CIRCUMSTANCES THE NDP WINS THE
MAJORITY GOVERNMENT.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "Scenario: NDP steals 5 points from PC. Seat count."

Steve reads data from the slate and says
THEY WIN 65 SEATS.
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES
ONLY 65 SEATS, THE LIBERALS ARE
DOWN TO 4.
EXPLAIN HOW THAT HAPPENS.

Erin says HERE'S WHERE IT GETS REALLY
INTERESTING.
BECAUSE THE PC VOTE IS SO TIGHT
AND SO EFFICIENT, JUST LOSING 5 percent
OF IT TO THE NDP WOULD CAUSE
THEM TO LOSE GOVERNMENT.
AND THE NDP TO FORM GOVERNMENT,
MAJORITY GOVERNMENT, BECAUSE
IT'S A NICE, TIGHT, EFFICIENT
VOTE OF 5 percent.
SO IT'S REALLY, REALLY
INTERESTING.
THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T CALL THE
ELECTION.
IT'S SO CLOSE.
NOW BY CONTRAST, WE DON'T... IF
SHE STEALS FROM THE LIBERAL
PARTY, YOU GET A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT RESULT.

Steve says LET'S GO THROUGH THOSE
RIGHT NOW.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "Scenario: NDP steals 5 points from Liberals. Seat count."

Steve reads data from the slate and says
IF, FOR EXAMPLE, THE NDP WERE TO
STEAL 5 POINTS OF THE LIBERALS'
REMAINING VOTE, THE PCS, YOU
HAVE THEM WITH A MAJORITY
GOVERNMENT.
68 SEATS TO THE NDP'S 56 SEATS.
SO THIS CLEARLY LAYS OUT A PATH
FOR THE NDP THAT SAYS THEY GOT
TO GO POACHING TORIES RIGHT NOW,
NOT LIBERALS.

Erin says THEY HAVE TO POACH TORIES.
IF THEY POACH LIBERALS, THEY
DON'T MAKE GOVERNMENT.
IF THEY POACH TORIES, THEY MAKE
MAJORITY GOVERNMENT, SO IT'S
VERY IMPORTANT WHERE THE VOTE
COMES FROM, NOT JUST THAT THEY
GET 5 percent MORE VOTES.
IT HAS TO COME FROM DOUG FORD'S
SPACE.

Steve says SO THIS ARGUES, I
PRESUME, THAT ANDREA HORWATH
NEEDS TO SPEND THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS VISITING TORY-HELD
RIDINGS, SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO,
FOR EXAMPLE, AND HAVING THOSE
PC-NDP FIGHTS.

Erin says EXACTLY.
SHE'S GOT TO MEET DOUG FORD IN
DOUG FORD'S... IN THE VULNERABLE
DOUG FORD AREAS.
SO WE'VE IDENTIFIED OR POLLY HAS
IDENTIFIED 14 RIDINGS WHERE THE
PCS ARE CURRENTLY WINNING BUT
POLLY FEELS THAT IF ANDREA
HORWATH WERE TO VISIT THERE SHE
WOULD LEAVE THE RIGHT IMPRESSION
BECAUSE ENOUGH PEOPLE THERE ARE
CONSIDERING VOTING NDP THAT A
VISIT FROM ANDREA HORWATH AND
SOME CONCENTRATION ON THOSE 14
RIDINGS WOULD CHANGE THE WHOLE
COURSE OF THE ELECTION.

Steve says FASCINATING.
SO THEN THE NDP STRATEGY AT THIS
POINT HAS GOT TO BE NEVER MIND
THOSE FIGHTS THAT WE HAVE WITH
THE LIBERALS.
SCARBOROUGH, WHATEVER, NEVER
MIND THOSE SEATS.
YOU GOT TO GO AFTER THE TORY VOTE.

Erin says GO AFTER THE TORY VOTE.
GO TO THE BAY OF QUINTE, GO
AFTER WOMEN WHO ARE MORE LIKELY
TO TOGGLE WHO ARE RIGHT NOW PC
ARE MORE LIKELY TO GO NDP.
SHE'S GOT MOMENTUM ON HER SIDE,
SO THERE IS NO LEADER RIGHT NOW
WHO IS GROWING IN POPULARITY
MORE THAN ANDREA HORWATH,
DESPITE THE BUDGET HOOPLA AND
ALL THAT KIND OF STUFF.

Steve says LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.
BECAUSE THE LIBERALS EXPOSED A
WEEK OR SO AGO THE FACT THAT
THEIR NUMBERS IN THEIR FULLY
COSTED PLAN WERE OFF BY A FACTOR
OF A BILLION FOUR.

Erin says YES.

Steve says WHAT DID POLLY HAVE TO
SAY ABOUT THAT?

Erin says THE 8 percent OF PEOPLE WHO ARE
CONSIDERING ANDREA HORWATH ARE
TALKING ABOUT THAT, BUT IT IS
NOT CHANGING THEIR MIND RIGHT
NOW.
SO 8 percent IS SIGNIFICANT.
IT'S NOT, YOU KNOW, DRASTIC.
IT'S NOT TERRIBLE FOR HER, AND
IT'S NOT CHANGING PEOPLE'S
MINDS.
HER MOMENTUM IS STILL GROWING
FASTER THAN WYNNE OR MR. FORD.
SO IT'S A MISTAKE AND PEOPLE ARE
CHALKING IT UP TO THAT.
BUT IT'S NOT AFFECTING HER
MOMENTUM.

Steve says NOT A FATAL BLOW AT
THE MOMENT.

Erin says NOT A FATAL BLOW AT THE
MOMENT.

Steve says WHAT ABOUT... I DON'T
KNOW THAT YOU HAVE NUMBERS ON
THIS BECAUSE THE NEWS JUST CAME
OUT THIS MORNING, THE FACT THAT
THE LIBERALS HAVE NOW PRODUCED
AN AUDIO RECORDING WHICH SHOWS
THAT DOUG FORD AND KINGA SURMA
APPARENTLY WENT LOOKING FOR
POTENTIAL NOMINATION SIGNUPS FOR
THE ETOBICOKE CENTRE NOMINATING
MEETING, WENT INTO A TIM
HORTONS, BASICALLY TOLD PEOPLE
JUST SIGN YOUR NAME THERE, WE'LL
PAY THE FEE, WE'LL FILL OUT THE
FORM, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.
ANY REASON TO SUSPECT THAT THAT
WOULD AFFECT POPULARITY OF THE
PC PARTY?

Erin says WE'VE BEEN MEASURING THE
MEMBERSHIP DEBACLE, IF YOU WILL,
FOR A WHILE NOW.
SO FAR, WHAT WE'RE FINDING IS
PEOPLE IN ONTARIO, AND
ESPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING
TO VOTE FOR DOUG FORD, ARE UNDER
NO ILLUSIONS THAT POLITICS IS A
MERIT-BASED, VIRTUOUS SYSTEM
WHERE THE BEST CANDIDATE WITH
THE BEST RESUME BECOMES YOUR
NEXT MEMBER OF PROVINCIAL
PARLIAMENT.
PEOPLE ACTUALLY THINK THIS IS
JUST THE WAY POLITICS WORKS.
THEY DON'T REALLY UNDERSTAND THE
LEGALITY OF BREAKING THE
ELECTIONS ONTARIO ACT, SO WE
WOULD NEED TO SEE CHARGES.
WE WOULD NEED TO SEE... NOT JUST
OTHER POLITICIANS SAYING THAT
THIS IS WRONG AUTHORITIES
AND HE'S GOING TO BE SANCTIONED
OR THAT HE'S BROKEN THE LAW IN
SOME WAY.
IF IT'S JUST SEEN AS BACKROOM
POLITICS RIGHT NOW, WE'RE SEEING
4 percent OF PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT THIS.
IT IS NOT CHANGING PEOPLE'S
MINDS.
IT'S NOT WINNING HIM ANY VOTES
EITHER, BUT IT'S NOT CHANGING
PEOPLE'S MINDS, AND IT'S REALLY
NOT ENGAGING PEOPLE, 4 percent OF THE
POPULATION.

Steve says LET ME JUST MAKE A
DISTINCTION HERE, THOUGH, ERIN.
CLEARLY FOR MR. FORD'S BASE,
WHICH LOVES HIM AND BELIEVES IN
ALL THE THINGS HE BELIEVES IN,
THIS WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT AT
ALL, COME HELL OR HIGH WATER
THEY'RE WITH HIM.

Erin says RIGHT.

Steve says BUT FOR THOSE WHO
PRESUMABLY YOU'RE POLLING WHO
ARE POTENTIAL LIBERAL-TORY
SWITCHERS OR NDP-TORY SWITCHERS,
WOULD THIS KIND OF INFORMATION
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THEIR
WILLINGNESS TO CONSIDER THE PC PARTY?

Erin says IT MIGHT.
SO FAR IT HASN'T.
SO SO FAR PEOPLE AREN'T TALKING,
BUT MAYBE NOW WITH THE VIDEO,
WE'D HAVE TO GIVE THAT A FEW
DAYS AND SEE IF THAT HAS MORE OP
AN IMPACT.
IT PROBABLY WOULD, BUT IS IT
GOING TO TAKE IT FROM 4 percent TO 8 percent?
RIGHT NOW WE SEE 8 percent TALKING
ABOUT ANDREA HORWATH AND THE
BUDGET THING, AND THAT HASN'T
AFFECTED HER POPULARITY.
SO I THINK PEOPLE JUST REALLY
SEE THIS, THAT THIS IS JUST
POLITICS.
I MEAN, PEOPLE WHO GO INTO
POLITICS
POLITICS, IT'S A WHEELIE DEALY
GAME.

Steve says PEOPLE EXPECT THAT, SO
IT'S SORT OF BAKED INTO THESE
NUMBERS.

Erin says YEAH, I DON'T THINK THEY
THINK ANY OTHER PARTY IS MORE
VIRTUOUS THAN THAT, EVEN IF THEY
HAVEN'T BEEN CAUGHT.
THAT'S WHAT I THINK.

Steve says LET'S TAKE A STEP BACK
HERE.
ONE THING I DO WANT TO GET A
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF, THE
ONLY PARTY THAT'S SHOWN ANY
MOMENTUM AT ALL IN THIS ELECTION
CAMPAIGN IS THE NDP, AND I WANT
TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF
HOW THAT HAPPENED.
DO YOU KNOW?

The caption changes to "Erin Kelly, @ErinOttawa."

Erin says YEAH, SO ANDREA HORWATH
COMING INTO THIS WAS THE LEAST
WELL-KNOWN CANDIDATE.
DOUG FORD WAS WELL KNOWN, AND
KATHLEEN WYNNE OBVIOUSLY BECAUSE
SHE'S THE PREMIER, AND BELIEVE
IT OR NOT, LOVE HIM OR HATE HIM,
JUST BEING WELL KNOWN GIVES A
CANDIDATE AN ADVANTAGE, GIVES
THEM A VERY BIG ADVANTAGE.
SO ANDREA HORWATH, PEOPLE DIDN'T
KNOW HER.
WITH THE... WHAT I AM SEEING IS
THE MORE SHE'S OUT THERE AND THE
MORE SHE'S ON DEBATES AND ON
TELEVISION AND VISITING RIDINGS,
SHE GETS MORE AND MORE POPULAR.
PEOPLE WHO HAVE SEEN HER REALLY
LIKE HER.

Steve says THEY LIKE WHAT THEY SEE.

Erin says THEY LIKE WHAT THEY SEE.
SHE'S CLIMBING CLIMBING CLIMBING.
THE OTHERS, PEOPLE KNEW WHAT
THEY WERE ABOUT BEFORE THEY
STARTED THE CAMPAIGN.
ANDREA HORWATH IS THE PERSON
PEOPLE ARE DISCOVERING, AND
SHE'S MAKING A VERY POSITIVE
IMPACT.

Steve says IN MY TRAVELS WITH
SOME OF THE CANDIDATES, JUST IN
THE CITY OF TORONTO, YOU KNOW,
FOLLOWING A CANVASS, GOING DOOR
TO DOOR, HEARING WHAT PEOPLE ARE
SAYING, I'M SEEING SOMETHING
I'VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE, WHICH IS
A LOT OF TORY CANDIDATES NOT
HAPPY WITH THEIR CHOICE, A LOT
OF THEM IN TORONTO DON'T WANT TO
VOTE FOR DOUG FORD.
I'M SEEING A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO
WOULD NORMALLY VOTE LIBERAL NOT
WANT TO VOTE LIBERAL THIS TIME
BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT HAPPY WITH
KATHLEEN WYNNE, AND THEN THERE'S
A WHOLE OTHER CHUNK OF PEOPLE
WHO HAVE NEVER VOTED NDP BEFORE
IN THEIR LIVES WHO ARE
CONSIDERING IT, BUT FOR THEM
STILL, THAT IS A BRIDGE TOO FAR.
AND AS A RESULT, I'M HEARING A
FEW... YOU KNOW, RUN INTO SOME
PEOPLE AT THE DOOR WHO SAY AS A
RESULT I'M THINKING ABOUT VOTING
GREEN FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER.
HOW DO YOU MAKE SENSE OF ALL OF
THAT WHEN YOU GO INTO THE BALLOT
BOX ON ELECTION DAY, UNHAPPY
WITH BASICALLY ALL OF YOUR
OPTIONS?

[Laughter].

Erin says UMM, YOU KNOW, THAT'S... THAT
IS SOMETHING THAT... SO THE
UNDECIDED VOTE HERE, WE'RE TWO
WEEKS FROM THE ELECTION, AND THE
UNDECIDED VOTE IS LOOKING LIKE
BREXIT.
I MEAN, IT'S IN THE TEENS IN
MOST RIDINGS.

Steve says WHICH IS HIGH.

Erin says IT'S HIGH.
FOR TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE
ELECTION.
IT'S MANIFESTING ITSELF.
SO THAT'S WHY WE CAN'T CALL THE
ELECTION RIGHT NOW BECAUSE, YES,
WE'RE SEEING THESE NUMBERS, BUT
WE'RE ALSO SEEING A VERY LARGE
UNDECIDED AND A VERY HIGH... A
VERY HIGH MARGIN OF ERROR
CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

Steve says DOES POLLY HAVE A VIEW
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THOSE
UNDECIDEDS AT THE END OF THE DAY
WILL HOLD THEIR NOSE AND VOTE
FOR SOMEONE, OR WHETHER THEY
WILL STAY AT HOME.

Erin says PEOPLE HAVE HIGH ENGAGEMENT
ON THIS ELECTION, AND TYPICALLY
WHEN PEOPLE ARE ENGAGED AND
TALKING, THEY CAN SHOW UP AT THE
POLLS.
MOST PEOPLE WHEN THEY SHOW UP
THEY HOLD THEIR NOSE AND THEY
VOTE FOR SOMEONE, NOT SPOILING
THEIR BALLOT.
BUT THE ENGAGEMENT IS HIGH,
SO... AND WE'RE SEEING GOOD
ENGAGEMENT WITH YOUTH.
WE'RE SEEING GOOD ENGAGEMENT
WITH ABORIGINAL POPULATIONS WHO
ARE TYPICALLY POPULATIONS THAT
DON'T VOTE AS OFTEN.

Steve says CAN WE FOCUS ON ONE
RIDING IN THAT REGARD?

Erin says YEAH.

Steve says CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT
BAY OF QUINTE NUMBERS?
JUST A COUPLE HOURS EAST OF HERE.

A map pops up showing the location of Bay of Quinte, east of Toronto, on Lake Ontario.

The caption changes to "Polling the Public."

Erin says BAY OF QUINTE IS REALLY
INTERESTING.
IT'S ALMOST THE OPPOSITE OF THE
PROVINCE, AND THAT'S ONE OF THE
RIDINGS, SO THE AI HAS
IDENTIFIED 14 RIDINGS THAT WOULD
BE ANDREA HORWATH'S PATH TO
VICTORY TO FORM GOVERNMENT.
AND BAY OF QUINTE,
INTERESTINGLY, IS ONE OF THOSE
RIDINGS.
NORMALLY YOU WOULD NEVER SEE
THAT RIDING GO NDP.
IT IS LIBERAL OR PC.
IT'S A LOT OF RETIREES.
IT'S... THEY HAVE AN ABORIGINAL
POPULATION OUT THERE, THE MOHAWK
TERRITORY, AND WE ARE SEEING THE
YOUTH... UNLIKE THE REST OF THE
PROVINCE, WHICH IS GOING DOUG
FORD A LITTLE BIT IN THIS
ELECTION, THE YOUTH IN BAY OF
QUINTE OVERWHELMINGLY NDP, THE
YOUTH THAT ARE THERE.
WOMEN IN BAY OF QUINTE, ALL THE
ONES WHO HAD VOTED PC IN THE
PAST, WE'RE NOW SEEING THEM
SWITCH OVER THE NDP AND LIBERAL.
SO IT'S INTERESTING, THE
LIBERALS ARE COMING OUT OF BAY
OF QUINTE, AND SO NOW IT'S
BETWEEN THE PCS AND THE NDP, AND
WE'RE SEEING WOMEN TOGGLE OVER
TO THE NDP, YOUTH TOGGLE OVER TO
THE NDP.
NOW IT'S STILL A PC RIDING RIGHT
NOW, BUT IT IS ONE THAT POLLY
FEELS COULD GO NDP, WHICH IS
VERY UNUSUAL FOR THAT RIDING.

Steve says HOW COMFORTABLE WOULD
YOU FEEL LISTING THOSE 14
RIDINGS THAT THE NDP NEEDS IN
ORDER TO WIN?

Erin says WE'RE VERY... YOU KNOW, WE'RE
ALWAYS SITTING ON THE POST ABOUT
THAT, BECAUSE WE DON'T WANT TO
SAY, WELL, THESE ARE THE 14
RIDINGS SO THE PEOPLE IN THAT
RIDING, YOU'RE ALWAYS AFRAID
THAT YOU'RE GOING TO AFFECT THE
OUTCOME, RIGHT, THE PEOPLE THAT
MIGHT NOT HAVE GONE OUT TO VOTE,
NOW THEY FEEL I'M IN ONE OF
THESE 14 IMPORTANT RIDINGS, I
NEED TO GET OUT AND VOTE.
WE DON'T WANT TO AFFECT THE
OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION.
BUT WE ARE DEFINITELY SEEING
RIDINGS WHERE YOU WOULDN'T
EXPECT THEM TO BE TOGGLING WHERE
THEY ARE TOGGLING, AND IT'S...
IT WOULD MAKE FOR INTERESTING
DISCUSSION, BUT WE'RE AFRAID OF
TIPPING PEOPLE AT THIS POINT.

Steve says BUT YOU KNOW WHAT THE
14 ARE.

Erin says WE KNOW WHAT THE 14 ARE.
WE KNOW WHAT THE 14 RIDINGS ARE
THAT ANDREA HORWATH NEEDS TO WIN.

Steve says LET'S, UMM, ASK WHAT
MIGHT BE AN OBVIOUS QUESTION,
BUT WE NEED TO ASK IT ANYWAY.
IS THERE ANY PATH TO IMPROVEMENT
FOR KATHLEEN WYNNE AT THE MOMENT?

Erin says SHE'S GOT ABOUT... SHE'S DOWN
TO, LIKE, ONE SEAT RIGHT NOW.
SHE CAN GET UP AS HIGH AS EIGHT.

Steve says JUST SAY THAT ONE MORE
TIME.
KATHLEEN WYNNE, IF THE ELECTION
WERE HELD TODAY, THE LIBERALS
WOULD WIN?

Erin says ONE SEAT.

Steve says I THINK PEOPLE NEED TO
THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A SECOND.

Erin says AND IT'S NOT HERS.

Steve says AND IT'S NOT HERS,
RIGHT.
WHICH ONE IS IT?

Erin says TORONTO CENTRE RIGHT NOW.

Steve says SO THAT'S THE ONE
SAFEST LIBERAL SEAT IN THE
PROVINCE.

Erin says AT THE MOMENT.
THERE ARE A FEW OTHERS, OTTAWA
CENTRE THAT COULD GO LIBERAL AS
WELL.
THEY ARE TOGGLING, SO YOU KNOW,
WITHIN THE LAST WEEK THEY'VE
LOST FOUR, BUT THEY COULD GAIN
THEM BACK AGAIN.
SO THERE'S FOUR SEATS THAT ARE
STILL... THEY ARE VERY, VERY
CLOSE.
BUT IT'S DEFINITELY... WE'VE NOT
SEEN HER ABOVE EIGHT SEATS.

Steve says OKAY.
SO POLLY, YOUR ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE, IS REFLECTING THE
BIGGEST DEBACLE IN ONTARIO
HISTORY FOR THE ONTARIO LIBERALS
IN THIS CAMPAIGN.

Erin says THAT'S RIGHT.

Steve says CORRECT.
AND THAT IS IN ALTERABLE?

Erin says WELL, YEAH.
WE'RE SEEING IT RIGHT NOW AS A
RACE BETWEEN THE NDP AND THE PCS
WITH THE PCS, IF IT WERE HELD
TODAY, WOULD HAVE A MAJORITY
GOVERNMENT STILL BECAUSE OF THE
EFFICIENCY OF THEIR VOTE.
WE'RE NOT SEEING A PATH TO
VICTORY FOR THE LIBERALS AT THIS
POINT.

Steve says NO PATH TO VICTORY,
BUT HOW ABOUT FOR OFFICIAL PARTY
STATUS, WHICH IS 12.

Erin says WE'RE NOT SEEING THAT EITHER.

Steve says I'M REMINDING IN 2011
WHEN MICHAEL IGNATIEFF LED THE
FEDERAL LIBERALS TO THE BIGGEST
DEFEAT IN HISTORY, HE STILL GOT
25 percent OF THE VOTE IN ONTARIO.
YOU'RE NOT SHOWING THE ONTARIO
LIBERALS EVEN GETTING TO THAT.

Erin says NO.

Steve says OKAY.
WE'VE GOT ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT
HERE, SO LET'S ASK THIS: ARE YOU
IN A... LIKE, YOU CALLED THE
TRUDEAU VICTORY FEDERALLY A
MONTH BEFORE IT HAPPENED.
YOU CALLED BREXIT BEFORE IT
HAPPENED.
YOU CALLED TRUMP BEFORE IT
HAPPENED.
WE'RE e-MINUS 14 DAYS AND
COUNTING RIGHT NOW.
ARE YOU IN A POSITION TO CALL
THIS ELECTION RIGHT NOW?

Erin says WE CANNOT CALL THIS ELECTION
RIGHT NOW.

Steve says WHY NOT?

Erin says IT IS WAY TOO CLOSE.
THE UNDECIDEDS ARE HIGH.
THE UNDECIDEDS ARE AT THE LEVEL
OF BREXIT A WEEK BEFORE BREXIT.
IT IS VERY, VERY HIGH UNDECIDED
IN THE TEENS IN ALMOST EVERY
RIDING.
THERE ARE VERY FEW RIDINGS THAT
ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OF
UNDECIDED.
PEOPLE ARE REALLY, REALLY UP IN
THE AIR ABOUT DOUG FORD VERSUS
ANDREA HORWATH, ALMOST TWO POLAR
OPPOSITES, TWO PEOPLE GOING FOR
THE POPULOUS VOTE, YOU HAVE TO
REMEMBER.
DOUG FORD IS GOING FOR THE
ANTI-ELITE POPULOUS VOTE.
ANDREA HORWATH MORE POSITIONING
HERSELF PRO-UNION POPULOUS VOTE,
WHICH IS YOUR TRADITIONAL NDP.
THEY ARE BOTH POPULOUS, SO THEY
ARE BOTH GOING AFTER THAT IMAGE.
AND... THE POPULAR VOTE, WE JUST
HAVE TO SEE IF ANDREA HORWATH
CAN CONSOLIDATE THAT INTO THOSE
14 RIDINGS.

Steve says WITH HOW MANY DAYS TO
GO WILL YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE
CALLING IT, DO YOU THINK?

Erin says IT'S REALLY NOT A MATTER OF
DAYS.
IT'S THE MATTER OF THE
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL IN GETTING
THOSE UNDECIDEDS DOWN.
WE'LL DEFINITELY OBVIOUSLY IN
THE WEEK LEADING UP, WHAT WE DO
IS WE TAKE THE UNDECIDEDS AWAY
FROM POLLY SO THAT SHE IS FORCED
TO PUT THEM INTO BUCKETS BASED
ON WHAT SHE HAS SEEN FOR, YOU
KNOW, THE LAST YEAR.
SHE WILL BE FORCED TO PUT THOSE
PEOPLE INTO BUCKETS.
WE'LL DO THAT AS WE GET THE
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL DOWN TO
UNDER 2 percent, HOPEFULLY.
BUT IF WE DON'T, THEN THREE DAYS
BEFORE WE'LL FORCE HER INTO
BUCKETS TO SEE WHAT WE GET.

Steve says I CAN'T WAIT FOR YOUR
NEXT VISIT.

Erin says THANK YOU, STEVE.

The caption changes to "Producer: Cara Stern, @carastern."

Steve says THAT'S ERIN KELLY,
ADVANCED SYMBOLICS.
YOU FLY IN FROM OTTAWA ANY TIME,
ERIN. THANKS VERY MUCH.

Erin says THANK YOU.

Watch: The Changing Minds of Ontario Voters