Transcript: Canada's Political Divides | Dec 11, 2017

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, white shirt, and purple tie.

A caption on screen reads "Canada's political divides. @spaikin, @theagenda."

Steve says DESPITE OUR
FASCINATION WITH THE POLARIZED
POLITICS SOUTH OF THE BORDER,
NOT MANY HERE TWIGGED TO THE
STUNNING UPSET THAT DELIVERED
AMERICA'S CURRENT PRESIDENT.
THE DIVISIONS IN OUR POLITICS
LARGELY PALE BY COMPARISON TO
THOSE IN THE U.S., BUT THAT
DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE IMMUNE.
JOINING US NOW TO CONSIDER IF
THERE IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT
SUCH FRACTURED POLITICS COULD BE
HEADED FOR CANADA, WE WELCOME:
FRANK GRAVES, PRESIDENT OF EKOS
RESEARCH ASSOCIATES...

Frank is in his sixties, clean-shaven, with short blond hair. He's wearing a gray suit and white shirt.

Steve continues CHRISTOPHER COCHRANE, ASSOCIATE
PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO AND
AUTHOR OF "LEFT AND RIGHT: THE
SMALL WORLD OF POLITICAL IDEAS."

Christopher is in his mid-thirties, with short, wavy blond hair and a full beard. He's wearing a black suit, white shirt, and gray tie.

Steve continues CHRISTINE BROPHY, A DOCTORAL
STUDENT IN PSYCHOLOGY AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO...

Christine is in her thirties, with long straight brown hair in a ponytail. She's wearing a pale yellow shirt.

Steve continues AND KEN WHYTE, THE FIRST EVER
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF THE NATIONAL
POST, NOW AUTHOR OF "HOOVER: AN
EXTRAORDINARY LIFE IN
EXTRAORDINARY TIMES."

Ken is in his late forties, clean-shaven, with short, side-parted gray hair. He's wearing rimless glasses, a dark gray suit, and a pale blue shirt.

Steve continues WE ARE DELIGHTED TO WELCOME YOU
TWO FOR THE FIRST TIME HERE ON
THIS SET.
YOU ONLY FOR THE SECOND TIME.
AND YOU WERE HERE ABOUT TWO
MINUTES AGO.
SO NICE TO SEE YOU AGAIN TOO.
FRANK, LET'S GO THROUGH SOME OF
THESE NUMBERS HERE.
THIS IS SORT OF AN AGGREGATION
OF RECENT POLLS.
CBC I THINK PUBLISHED THIS.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "Aggregation of the latest federal polls."

Steve reads data from the slate and says
EARLY DECEMBER, LIBERALS 39,
CONSERVATIVES 32, NDP 16, GREENS
AT 7.
THAT'S THE FEDERAL SCENE.
NOTHING PARTICULARLY SURPRISING
ABOUT THOSE NUMBERS.
YET YOUR RECENT STUDY SUGGESTS
THAT BELOW THE SURFACE THERE IS
SOMETHING BREWING IN CANADIAN
POLITICS TODAY.
WHAT'S BREWING?

The caption changes to "Frank Graves. Ekos Research."
Then, it changes again to "The end of progress."

Frank says WELL, I'M NOT
CRAZY ABOUT THE LABEL POPULISM,
BUT IT'S ONE THAT'S BEEN USED TO
APPLY TO A NUMBER OF THE KINDS
OF MOVEMENTS THAT WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT, AND WHAT WE THINK IS
GOING ON, WE SEE IT IN CANADA AS
WELL, IS THAT FOR MANY PEOPLE,
THIS PROTRACTED PERIOD OF
ECONOMIC STAGNATION, A SENSE OF
FALLING BEHIND, HAS PRODUCED A
DIFFERENT OUTLOOK ON WHAT KIND
OF POLITICAL SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE
AVAILABLE THAT THEY WOULD FIND
COMPELLING.
AND IT'S REALLY HAD A
TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT, OBVIOUSLY
MUCH MORE SO IN THE CASE OF
THINGS LIKE BREXIT AND DONALD
TRUMP, BUT I THINK EVEN IN
CANADA... AND BY THE WAY, JUST
TO GIVE YOU AN UPDATE OF DATA
THAT IS COMPLETED AS OF
YESTERDAY, A POLL THAT WILL BE
COMING OUT WITH CANADIAN PRESS,
WE HAVE THE CONSERVATIVES
ACTUALLY LEADING BY FIVE POINTS
RIGHT NOW.
AND IF WE LOOK AT WHERE, FOR
EXAMPLE, THE LIBERALS SEEM TO
HAVE HAD SOME PROBLEMS, IT'S
PRECISELY WITH THIS GROUP THAT
IS BEING ATTRACTED TO MORE OF A
POPULIST MESSAGE.

Steve says WHEN WE THINK ABOUT
POLITICAL ALTERNATIVES... I
MEAN, HERETOFORE IT'S BEEN LEFT
VERSUS RIGHT.
I GATHER YOU HAVE A NEW FILTER,
WHICH SAYS, OPEN VERSUS ORDERED.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

Frank says ACTUALLY, I KIND OF PINCHED
IT FROM 60 YEARS AGO FROM DANIEL
BELL WHO SAID THAT THE
LEFT-RIGHT IDEOLOGICAL WARS
WOULD BE REPLACED BY THIS
ORDERED OPEN SPECTRUM, AND
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CLEAR LINEAGE
CONNECTING THEM, THE DEBATES ARE
NOT SO MUCH ABOUT THE KINDS OF
TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE ISSUES AS THEY ARE
ABOUT WHAT KIND OF A SOCIETY WE
WANT IN TERMS OF THIS FILTER.
DO WE WANT TO BE RELATIVELY MORE
OPEN OR RELATIVELY MORE ORDERED,
WHICH IS ALSO IN MANY RESPECTS
CLOSED, WHICH KIND OF GOES TO
THE NOTION OF, LET'S KIND OF
RESTORE SOME PERIOD WHERE A
NOSTALGICALLY IMAGINED AS A MORE
SECURE, YOU KNOW, LESS DIVISIVE
COUNTRY THAT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW,
MAKE ME FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
I MEAN, SOME OF THE NUMBERS WE
SEE ARE FRANKLY STARTLING.
THE FACT THAT ONLY 13 percent OF
CANADIANS... AND THE NUMBER IS
THE SAME IN THE UNITED STATES,
ACTUALLY 10 percent THINK THEIR KIDS
ARE GOING TO DO BETTER THAN
THEM.
THAT USED TO BE THE WHOLE IDEA.
THE MIDDLE CLASS BARGAIN, YOU
WORK HARD, MAYBE COME UP WITH A
BETTER MOUSETRAP, YOU'RE GOING
TO GET A HOUSE, A SECURE JOB,
YOU'RE GOING TO DO BETTER THAN
YOUR PARENTS, YOU'RE GOING TO
RETIRE IN RELATIVE COMFORT, AND
YOUR KIDS WILL DO BETTER THAN
YOU.
AND THAT WORKED FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY PRETTY
WELL.

Steve says THAT SOCIAL CONTRACT
SEEMS TO BE IN TROUBLE.

Frank says IT'S NOT IN TROUBLE, IT'S IN
SHAMBLES.
PEOPLE THAT FELT, FOR EXAMPLE,
THEY USED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
CLASS BUT NOW THEY'VE FALLEN
INTO THE WORKING CLASS.
TO GIVE YOU CONTEXT ON THAT, WE
HAD INCIDENCE OF PEOPLE WHO
WOULD DEFINE THEMSELVES AS
SELF-DEFINED MEMBERS OF THE
MIDDLE CLASS IN CANADA AND THE
UNITED STATES WAS 70 percent, IT'S
DROPPED TO THE MID 40s.

Steve says WHY DON'T WE BRING
THESE NUMBERS UP.

Another slate appears on screen.

Steve reads and says
ASKED ABOUT THEIR PERSONAL
FINANCIAL SITUATION OVER THE
LAST FIVE YEARS, 37 percent SAY THEY
HAVE FALLEN BEHIND.
ABOUT THE SAME SAY STAYING THE
SAME.
22 percent, A SMALLER NUMBER, MOVING
AHEAD.
ARE YOU BETTER OFF THAN YOUR
PARENTS WERE?
ABOUT A THIRD SAY WORSE OFF.
LESS THAN A THIRD ABOUT THE
SAME.
A THIRD BETTER OFF.
WILL YOUR CHILDREN BE BETTER
OFF?
LOOK AT THIS.
56 percent SAY THEY THINK THEIR KIDS
WILL BE WORSE OFF THAN THEY.
ALMOST THREE IN TEN, ABOUT THE
SAME.
ONLY 13 percent THINK THEIR KIDS ARE
GOING TO DO BETTER THAN THEY
WILL.
AND EMPHASIZE AGAIN WHAT FRANK
JUST SAID.
ASKED TO DESCRIBE YOURSELF, WHAT
CLASS ARE YOU IN?
ONLY 13 percent DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS
POOR.
37 percent WORKING CLASS.
43 percent... YOU WONDER WHY POLITICS
IS ALL ABOUT GOING AFTER THE
MIDDLE CLASS?
BECAUSE 43 percent OF US THINK WE'RE
MIDDLE CLASS AND ONLY 4 percent THINK
THAT WE ARE UPPER CLASS.

Frank says I CAN GIVE YOU HARDER
MEASURES.
WE ASKED PEOPLE NOT JUST DO YOU
THINK YOU'RE DOING WORSE THAN
YOUR PARENTS?
YOUR FATHER AT THIS STAGE OF
LIFE, IN TODAY'S DOLLARS, ARE
YOU MAKING MORE OR LESS?
PEOPLE CAN ANSWER THAT QUESTION.
THEY DON'T KNOW THE EXACT
NUMBERS BUT ROUGHLY WHETHER
THEY'RE MAKING MORE OR LESS.
THIS IS A MEASURE OF
INTERGENERATIONAL ABILITY.
FOR SENIORS ONLY 15 percent SAY WORSE
THAN THEIR FATHER.
THE MILLENNIALS, WELL OVER 50 percent.
SO THE RATES OF DOWNWARD
INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY HAVE
TREBLED ON ONE WATCH.
YEAH, THIS IS... BY THE WAY, ALL
THE PLACES AND PEW MEASURES THIS
INTERNATIONALLY, PLACES WHERE
THEY THINK THEIR KIDS ARE GOING
TO BE BETTER OFF, ARE BETTER
OFF.
IF YOU HAVE THIS SELF FULFILLING
PROPHESY EVERYTHING IS GOING TO
BE WORSE, IT ISN'T HEALTHY FOR
THE FUTURE.

Steve says CHRISTOPHER, LET ME
GET YOU IN ON THIS NOTION OF ORDERED.

The caption changes to "Christopher Cochrane. University of Toronto."
Then, it changes again to "Conflict widening."

Christopher says LEFT AND RIGHT AS LABELS ARE MOVING TARGETS.
IT'S ONE OF THOSE THINGS
EVERYBODY KNOWS IT WHEN THEY SEE
IT BUT THEY HAVE A HARD TIME
TELLING YOU EXACTLY WHAT IT IS.
THERE ARE CERTAINLY ELEMENTS OF
AUTHORITARIANS DISPOSITIONS ON
RIGHT AND LEFT HISTORICALLY, BUT
CERTAINLY THOSE SEEM TO BE
DISPROPORTIONATELY REPRESENTED
ON THE RIGHT AND A LOT OF THE
POPULIST AUTHORITARIAN SENTIMENT
THAT IS BEHIND SUPPORT FOR
DONALD TRUMP, NOT ENTIRELY
BEHIND SUPPORT FOR DONALD TRUMP,
BUT NEVERTHELESS THERE.
THE CHALLENGE FOR CANADA HAS
BEEN AND YOU SEE THIS IN THE
LEADERSHIP RACE THE
CONSERVATIVES HAVE JUST HAD, YOU
SEE THIS ALSO FOR PATRICK BROWN
IN ONTARIO, THE CHALLENGE IS AT
THE ELITE LEVEL TO TRY TO KEEP A
LID ON THAT.
IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL
BE POPULAR WITH THE REST OF THE
PROVINCE OR THE REST OF THE
COUNTRY.
WE'LL SEE WHETHER THEY'RE ABLE
TO DO IT.
CANADIANS ARE NOT IMMUNE TO
IDEATIONAL CURRENTS.
THERE IS A STRONG AND UNIQUE
CURRENT EMANATING FROM THE
UNITED STATES...

Steve says IDEATIONAL CURRENT?

Christopher says PEOPLE DON'T MAKE UP THEIR
MINDS ON ISSUES.
THEY LOOK UP TO POLITICAL ELITES
TO TRY TO FIND WHAT THEIR
OPINION ON DIFFERENT ISSUES
OUGHT TO BE.
RIGHT NOW THERE ARE A LOT OF
CANADIANS LOOKING SOUTH TO THE
UNITED STATES, NOT
OVERWHELMINGLY, NOT TOO MANY,
BUT CERTAINLY A LOT OF
CONSERVATIVES BUT MORE
CONSERVATIVES THAN OTHERS,
LOOKING TO THE UNITED STATES AS
TO WHAT SHOULD THEIR POSITIONS
BE ON THINGS LIKE IMMIGRATION OR
ISLAM, YOU SEE THIS DISCUSSED A
LOT, ON ATTITUDES TOWARDS
ELITES.
AS THESE ISSUES INTENSIFY IN THE
UNITED STATES, THEY'RE LIKELY TO
HAVE AN INFLUENCE HERE AS WELL.

Steve says CHRISTINE, COULD YOU
TALK TO US ABOUT THE KIND OF
RESEARCH YOU DO AND WHETHER IT
HELPS US UNDERSTAND, YOU KNOW,
IF A CONSERVATIVE IS A
CONSERVATIVE IS A CONSERVATIVE
AND A LIBERAL IS A LIBERAL IS A LIBERAL?
HELP US WITH THAT.

The caption changes to "Christine Brophy. University of Toronto."

Christine says A LOT OF THE WORK I DO IS
LOOKING AT THE UNDERLYING
BIOLOGICAL MECHANISMS OR
PERSONALITY FACTORS, THESE
FUNDAMENTALLY COMMON SORT OF
TEMPERAMENTS OR TRAITS THAT
EVERYBODY HAS AND HOW THEY
PATTERN OR CLUSTER TOGETHER TO
PREDICT WHAT TYPES OF POLICIES
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO...
INDIVIDUALS ARE GOING TO SUPPORT.
SO, FOR EXAMPLE, ON THE LIBERAL
SIDE, IT IS TRUE THAT WE HAVE
THIS TRAIT CALLED OPENNESS FOR
PERSONALITY AND IT'S LINKED TO
THINGS LIKE CREATIVITY,
IMAGINATION, REORDERING OF SORT
OF AESTHETIC TYPE QUALITIES,
WHEREAS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
WE SEE SOME STANCE LIKE
CONSCIENTIOUSNESS.
THAT'S WHERE THE ORDERLINESS
COMES THROUGH.
YOU SEE THAT THEY LIKE TO HAVE
RULES, THAT THEY'RE VERY
EFFICIENT, THEY ALWAYS GET
THINGS DONE ON TIME.
SO THAT'S WHERE THIS KIND OF
IDEA OF PEOPLE WHEN THEY'RE
LOOKING AT IT, THEY THINK, OH,
CONSERVATIVES, THEY'RE LOOKING
FOR SOMETHING THAT'S STABLE AND
CLOSED, SYSTEMS THEY CAN
CONTROL, WHEREAS ON THE LIBERAL
SIDE OF THINGS, LIBERALISM IS
BUILT ON TOP OF THIS ALREADY
STABLE SOCIETY WHERE WE HAVE
THESE RULES AND REGULATIONS THAT
HAVE CREATED INDIVIDUALS WHO BY
HABITUAL BEHAVIOUR ARE ACTING
MORALLY.
BECAUSE OF THAT, LIBERALS WALK
IN WITH THIS PRECONCEIVED NOTION
WE'RE A BLANK SLATE AND
INHERENTLY BENEVOLENT.
FROM THERE THEY'RE ABLE TO WORK
DAY BY DAY TO REORGANIZE THINGS
TO ACHIEVE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF HAPPINESS FOR THE GREATEST
NUMBER OF PEOPLE.

Steve says FRANK, LET'S FOLLOW
UP WITH SOME NUMBERS YOU HAVE
TESTED CANADIANS ON AS IT
RELATES TO IMMIGRATION.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "For or against diverse immigration."

A line chart shows support for diverse immigration fell sharply between 1993 and 2005, increasing dramatically since.

Steve reads data from the slate and says
HERE IS THE QUESTION: HOW
RECEPTIVE ARE CANADIANS TO LEVEL
OF IMMIGRATION BY VISIBLE ETHNIC
MINORITIES, AND THERE'S A GRAPH
YOUR ORGANIZATION HAS PUT TOGETHER.
IN 1994, LET'S SORT OF PLUCK A
COUPLE OF YEARS OFF HERE.
40 percent FELT THERE WERE TOO MANY
VISIBLE ETHNIC MINORITIES.
IN 2005, THE NUMBER IS DOWN TO
18 percent.
BUT IN 2017, THERE WE ARE UP
AGAIN, WE'RE UP AROUND 37 percent RIGHT
NOW.
TELL US THE STORY BEHIND THIS CHART.

Frank says BECAUSE
PEOPLE CAN LEGITIMATELY SAY I'M
NOT COMFORTABLE WITH IMMIGRATION
BECAUSE OF THE JOB COMPETITION
OR PRESSURE OR SOCIAL PROGRAMS,
WE CAME UP WITH THIS VERSION
THAT SAID LET'S FORGET ABOUT THE
LEVELS AND TALK ABOUT THOSE, OF
WHOM ARE COMING, IS IT TOO FEW
OR THE RIGHT NUMBER?
I RANDOMLY CHANGED AND SAID
WHITE PRODUCES EXACTLY THE SAME
RESULTS.
SO WE SAW THIS PERIOD WHERE
THERE WAS A PRETTY CLEAR DECLINE
IN THE OPPOSITION, WHICH WAS
VERY HEATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
'90s.
IN FACT, THE DEBATE ABOUT
IMMIGRATION IN CANADA WAS MUCH
MORE INTENSE AND PASSIONATE AND
POLARIZED AT THAT TIME THAN IT
WAS AS WE CLOSED OUT THE
CENTURY, WHERE EVERYONE SAID,
YEAH, IT'S A GOOD IDEA.
WE LIKE GLOBALIZATION.
IT'S LINKED TO THIS ECONOMIC
DESPAIR THAT MANY PEOPLE,
THERE'S BEEN A RISE IN
QUESTIONING A LOT OF THE
INGREDIENTS ABOUT THE BARGAIN
THAT ELITES HAVE PUT TOGETHER
AND SAID WOULD BE GOOD FOR YOU
AND MANY PEOPLE SAY IT ISN'T
GOOD FOR ME.
IMMIGRATION WOULD BE ONE OF
THOSE.
GLOBALIZATION.
TRADE LIBERALIZATION.
ALL OF THESE THINGS WHICH WERE
SEEN AS, YOU KNOW, PRECONDITIONS
FOR SUCCESS, HAVE BEEN FOUND
FLAWED BY MANY PEOPLE WHO SAY IT
ISN'T WORKING FOR ME.
YOU SEEM TO BE DOING ALL RIGHT,
WHICH IS WHY WE GET THIS ELITE
RESENTMENT.
IT LINKS UP WELL WITH THE FACT
THAT SOME OF THESE THINGS ARE
EAST IS EAST AND WEST IS WEST
AND THEY'RE PREDETERMINED
COGNITIVELY BY PREDISPOSITIONS.
LIBERALS TEND TO LOOK FOR REASON
AND EVIDENCE.
CONSERVATIVES ARE ATTRACTED TO
MORAL CERTAINTY.
BUT IN THIS ERA, AND WHAT I
THINK HAPPENS, THE THEORY IS
THAT THESE PERSONALITY TYPES CAN
BECOME ENGAGED UNDER CERTAIN
CIRCUMSTANCES AND EXPRESS
THEMSELVES DIFFERENTLY.
SO THAT'S WHY I THINK THINGS ARE
CHANGING.
AND THE TWO CRITICAL CONDITIONS
FOR THIS ORDERED PERSONALITY
EXPRESSION ARE A SENSE OF
ECONOMIC DESPAIR AND A MAGNIFIED
SENSE OF EXTERNAL THREAT.
THESE THEORIES CAME OUT OF THE
WORK IN NEW BRUNSWICK... TRYING
TO UNDERSTAND WHAT WENT ON IN
GERMANY.
THE SAME KINDS OF UPDATED
MEASURES, YOU THINK WHEN YOU'RE
RAISING YOUR CHILD, YOU SHOULD
EMPHASIZE CREATIVITY OR
OBEDIENCE.
MORE THAN HALF OF CANADIANS SAY
IT SHOULD BE OBEDIENCE.
THAT'S AN AUTHORITARIAN TRAIT.

Steve says I'M INTERESTED IN
THOSE WHO SAY DONALD TRUMP IS AN
UNPRECEDENTED POPULIST
CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL FORCE
WHEN, I DON'T KNOW, MAYBE I'M
OUT IN LEFT FIELD, IT COULD BE
RIGHT FIELD IN THIS CASE, I
THOUGHT WE HAD IT FIRST IN ROB
FORD.
THE CONSERVATIVE POPULIST MAYOR
OF TORONTO BEAT THE U.S. BY A
LITTLE BIT.
DO YOU SEE IT THAT WAY?

The caption changes to "Ken Whyte. Author, 'Hoover.'"

Ken says I'D GO FURTHER.
I THINK WE HAD HIM FIRST IN
STEPHEN HARPER.
TWO REMARKABLY DIFFERENT PEOPLE
AND HARPER HAD A SENSE OF
RESPONSIBILITY AND DIGNITY THAT
TRUMP UTTERLY LACKS.
BUT HARPER WAS A SMALL-C
CONSERVATIVE, HE TALKED A LOT
ABOUT SECURITY ISSUES, ABOUT
IMMIGRATION, HE WAS A TIM
HORTON'S SORT OF LEADER.

Steve says AS OPPOSED TO STARBUCKS.

Ken says THAT'S RIGHT, YES.
AND SO I THINK WE HAD THAT SORT
OF SMALL-C POPULISM HERE IN
CANADA.
WE WERE... POPULISM HERE IN
CANADA.
WE WERE EARLY ADOPTERS.
AND WE'RE SEEING IT NOW IN THE
STATES WITH AN UTTERLY DIFFERENT
KIND OF LEADER, BUT MANY OF THE
SAME ISSUES THAT MOTIVATED
CONSERVATIVES HERE TO SUPPORT
HARPER ARE MOTIVATING PEOPLE TO
SUPPORT TRUMP IN THE U.S.

Steve says IF THERE IS THIS
RISING SENSE OF WHATEVER YOU
WANT TO CALL IT, CLOSED OR
POPULIST OR WHATEVER THE WORD
WE'RE LOOKING FOR HERE IS, I
FIND IT VERY INTERESTING THAT
PATRICK BROWN... YOU JUST
REFERENCED HIM A MOMENT AGO, THE
CURRENT OPPOSITION LEADER IN
ONTARIO... HAS DECIDED TO GO 18D
PUT FORWARD A PLATFORM THAT IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE.
I THINK I'VE SEEN A LOT OF
COMMENTATORS SAY, TOOK A CHAPTER
OUT OF BILL DAVIS' PLAYBOOK FROM
45 YEARS AGO.
IS THAT NOT AN UNUSUAL THING TO
DO IF A LARGER CHUNK OF US ARE
GOING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION?

Christopher says IT'S INTERESTING.
I THINK THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE
LEARNED IN ONTARIO THE PAST
COUPLE OF ELECTIONS THAT THEIR
GOAL HERE IS NOT TO LOSE IT.
IT'S TO BE A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE
TO AN UNPOPULAR LIBERAL
GOVERNMENT AND HOPE THAT PEOPLE
WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE PARKING
THEIR VOTE.
THAT'S DIFFERENT THAN THE MIKE
HARRIS APPROACH WHICH WAS WE
NEED TO GO OUT WITH A VERY CLEAR
MESSAGE AND TRY TO WIN THIS
ELECTION.
SO THEY HAD A COHERENT CLEAR
PLATFORM ON A NUMBER OF
DIFFERENT ITEMS.

Steve says DESIGNED TO APPEAL
TO A MUCH NARROWER BASE OF THE
POPULATION AS WELL.

Christopher says PRECISELY.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS A BIT
PECULIAR WILL LEFT-RIGHT
POSITIONING AND HOW PEOPLE FEEL
IS IT'S OFTEN THE CASE THAT
PEOPLE WHO ARE SLIGHTLY RIGHT,
FOR EXAMPLE, WILL LOOK MORE
FAVOURABLY, TO THE EXTENT THAT
WE CAN SPEAK IN TERMS OF DEGREE
AND NOT KIND, WHICH IS I THINK
AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION, THEY
WILL SPEAK MORE FAVOURABLY OF
POLITICAL ACTORS FURTHER TO THE
RIGHT, AND THE SAME FOR THE LEFT
THAN ACTORS AT THEIR OWN
POSITION.
SENDING OUT A COHERENT MESSAGE
IN CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES LIKE
TRUMP DID CAN BE A NET BENEFIT
IN MOTIVATING PEOPLE AND GETTING
THEM INVOLVED.
THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE LEARNED
QUITE RIGHTLY THEIR GOAL IS TO
BE A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO AN
UNPOPULAR GOVERNMENT.

Steve says KEN, WHAT'S YOUR
TAKE ON BROWN HAS GONE AWAY FROM
FORD AND TRUMP AND GONE BACK TO
THE FUTURE IN TAKING A PAGE OUT
OF BILL DAVIS' PLAYBOOK?

Ken says I THINK HE FEELS
HIS BASE WILL STICK WITH HIM,
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE
CONSERVATIVE BASE IS GOING TO
STICK WITH HIM NO MATTER...

Steve says THE SOCIAL
CONSERVATIVES?
THE ECONOMIC CONSERVATIVES?

The caption changes to "Kenneth Whyte, @kenwhyte3."

Ken says THEY HAVE NO REAL ALTERNATIVE
TO PATRICK BROWN...

Steve says STAY HOME IS ONE OF THEM.

The caption changes to "Connect with us: @theagenda, TVO.org, Facebook, YouTube, Periscope, Instagram."

Ken says YES, BUT THEY'RE QUITE
UNHAPPY WITH THE CURRENT
GOVERNMENT.
SO I DON'T THINK THEY'RE STAYING
HOME.
I JUST WANT... I THOUGHT THE
MOST INTERESTING THING IN
FRANK'S DATA TO ME WAS THE... IT
DEMONSTRATED WE'RE NOT TERRIBLY
POLARIZED AND THAT THERE WAS A
REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
LIBERAL VOTER AND EVERYBODY
ELSE.
BOTH THE CONSERVATIVES AND TO A
LARGE EXTENT THE NEW DEMOCRAT
AND THE GREEN VOTER ARE ALL
FEELING THAT THEIR ECONOMIC
PROSPECTS ARE RATHER BLEAK, AND
IT'S THE LIBERALS, THE SUNNY-WAY
LIBERALS, WHO ARE THE ONES WHO
FEEL EVERYTHING IS GOING GREAT.
MY KIDS ARE GOING TO DO GOOD.
I'M GOING TO DO GOOD.
AND SO THAT IS A REALLY UNIQUE
THING, I THINK, ABOUT THE
CANADIAN SITUATION.
VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE AMERICAN
SITUATION.

Steve says LET ME GET SOME
FEEDBACK ON THAT.
CHRISTINE, PSYCHOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING, LIBERALS STILL SEE
SUNNY WAYS AND EVERYBODY NOT SO MUCH?

Christine says THAT'S
LIKE THE TRAITS THAT PREDICT
LIBERALISM IS, YEAH, OPENNESS
AND HIGH COMPASSION WITHOUT
CONSCIENTIOUSNESS, MEANS YOU
DON'T REALLY HAVE AN IDEA OF THE
ABILITY OF THE HUMAN HEART TO
SIN OR TO ACT ON IMPULSE.
AND INSTEAD YOU BELIEVE IN THIS
KIND OF HYPER RATIONAL ABILITY OF
THE HUMAN BEING THAT WE CAN
EXAMINE OUR ENVIRONMENT AND THEN
WE THINK ABOUT WHAT WE WANT TO
DO AND THEN WE CHOOSE THE BEST
WAY TO ACT.
THAT'S NOT AT ALL HOW IT ENDS UP
HAPPENING.
THEY THINK EVERYTHING IS GOING
TO BE GREAT, YOU DON'T NEED TO
WORRY ABOUT IT, AND THEY'RE NOT
KEEPING TRACK OF HOW MUCH WORK
YOU NEED TO PUT IN TO BUILD THE
SOCIETY AS IT IS TODAY.

Steve says THAT'S JUST
EMPIRICALLY BASED
PROBLEM-SOLVING, RIGHT?
THAT'S SUPPOSEDLY WHAT
POLITICIANS ARE SUPPOSED TO DO.

Christine says IT'S AMAZING HOW MUCH THESE
INNATE DIFFERENCES... THE BRAIN
IS BUILT ON THE OLD REPTILIAN
PART OF IT, AND WE HAVE THESE
FRONTAL CORTEXES THAT HELP US
RATIONALIZE, IT'S HOW WE SOLVE
PROBLEMS, THE KIND OF THINGS WE
FIND REWARDING TO ENGAGE IN, SO,
YEAH.

Steve says HOW DIFFERENT IS THE
POPULISM, FRANK, THAT YOU ARE
DESCRIBING TODAY FROM, SAY, THE
POPULISM OF PRESTON MANNING'S
REFORM POLITICS INTRODUCED TO
CANADIANS 25 YEARS AGO?

Frank says POPULISM IS
GENERALLY THOUGHT OF BEING
IDEOLOGICALLY THIN.
YOU CAN SEE EXPRESSIONS OF
POPULISM ON THE LEFT, YOU CAN
SEE IT ON THE RIGHT.
JEAN CHRETIEN SOME CLAIM WAS A
CENTRIST.
THE BRAND WE'RE SEEING IN THE
UNITED STATES AND SOMETIMES IN
EUROPE AND BREXIT, IT'S A
REINCARNATION OF THIS MORE
ORDERED OUTLOOK WHICH WE SAW AT
EARLIER STAGES IN EUROPEAN
HISTORY WHICH PRODUCED
DISTURBING RESULTS.
ACTUALLY THE INCIDENCE OF... SO
I THINK THE POPULISM WE'RE
LOOKING AT... BY THE WAY,
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE
POPULISM IN CANADA, EVEN THOUGH
YOU HAVE SORT OF LESS POPULIST
VERSIONS OF POPULISM IN THE
SENSE OF BERNIE SANDERS OR
CORBYN, IN CANADA POPULISM SEEMS
TO BE VERY MUCH FOCUSED IN A
CONSERVATIVE AREA...

Ken says JACK LAYTON WAS A POPULIST.
JACK LAYTON WAS ALWAYS BEATING
UP THE BANKS AND TELCOS... MY
POINT IS IT CAN MANIFEST...

The caption changes to "Who are the conservatives?"

Steve says ON BOTH ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM.

Frank says IF I WAS TO COMPARE THE
CONSTITUENCIES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY SUPPORTING PATRICK
BROWN WHO LOOKS LIKE HE'S GOING
TO WIN A STUNNING MAJORITY AT
THIS STAGE.

Steve says FRANK, SIX MONTHS
AWAY.
POLLSTERS DON'T PREDICT.

Frank says I LOOK BACK WYNNE WAS BEHIND
THE LAST TIME...

Steve says THE LIBERALS WERE
BEHIND THREE ELECTIONS IN A ROW...

Ken says LET HIM GO OUT ON A LIMB HERE.

[LAUGHTER]

Frank says RIGHT NOW IT'S PRETTY HARD TO
IMAGINE THAT'S NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN IN SOME FORM.
THE NDP ARE STUCK BELOW 20.
THE LIBERALS ARE ALREADY 24.
IT'S A PERFECT STORM FOR THAT
CENTRE-LEFT VOTE, AND HE'S
RIDING HIGH.

Steve says YOUR BUDDY AT FORUM
HAS THE NDP IN SECOND PLACE
RIGHT NOW.

Frank says YEAH, OKAY.
THAT'S FINE.
I HAVEN'T UPDATED MY PROVINCIAL
DATA ARE A FEW MONTHS OLD, SO I
DON'T KNOW.
ACTUALLY I HAD WYNNE COMING A
LITTLE BACK IN THE GAME ON
APPROVAL.
THE POINT IS IN ONTARIO, THE
PATRICK BROWN SUPPORTERS ARE
PROBABLY THE MOST POPULIST IN
THIS PARTICULAR EXPRESSION OF
POPULIST OF ANY WE'VE SEEN ON
ISSUES BEING RELATIVELY MUCH
MORE ALLERGIC FOR TRADE, STRONG
SUPPORT FOR TRADE, ECONOMICALLY
PESSIMISTIC, CONVINCED THAT THE
COUNTRY AND THE PROVINCE ARE
GOING TO HELL IN A HAND BASKET,
YOU KNOW, WARY ABOUT
IMMIGRATION, NOT COMFORTABLE
WITH A LOT OF THE ASPECTS OF THE
DIVERSITY NARRATIVE.
FOR EXAMPLE, I THINK IT'S GREAT
THAT PATRICK BROWN IS SKETCHING
OUT THINGS LIKE, YOU KNOW, I'M
GOING TO HAVE A CARBON TAX AND
WE'RE GOING TO RESPECT GENDER
RIGHTS.
THAT'S GREAT.
BUT IT JUST ISN'T WHERE THE
CONSTITUENCY IS.
SO I'M PUZZLED WHETHER IT WILL
BE A TRIUMPH WE REALLY WANT TO
GET RID OF THIS OTHER PEOPLE AND
THIS PERSON WILL BECOME THE ONE
WE HOPE.
POPULISM IN CANADA SEEMS TO BE
KIND OF ORPHANED POLITICALLY
RIGHT NOW.

Steve says FUNNY YOU MENTION
THAT.
BECAUSE I ONCE ASKED... I'M
GOING TO MAKE YOU SIT THROUGH
THIS ONE.
I'M GOING TO GET BACK TO YOU.
IT WAS ONE OF YOUR COMPETITORS
THAT I WAS SPEAKING TO ABOUT
THIS.
CHRISTOPHER, I'LL GO TO YOU
FIRST ON IT.
I ONCE ASKED A FELLOW POLLSTER
OF FRANK'S, COULD THE TRUMP
PHENOMENA HAPPEN HERE?
HIS ANSWER WAS NO, AND IT
COULDN'T HAPPEN HERE BECAUSE WE
JUST DON'T HAVE ENOUGH ANGRY
WHITE BITTER QUASI-RACIST MEN IN
THIS COUNTRY TO GIVE, YOU KNOW,
THE KIND OF VICTORY TO A
POTENTIAL POLITICIAN HERE THE
WAY THAT IT DID FOR DONALD TRUMP.
DO YOU SEE THAT?

The caption changes to "Against polarization."

Christopher says I
THINK IT'S LESS LIKELY TO HAPPEN
HERE THAN IN THE UNITED STATES
AND THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF
PECULIARITIES IN THE AMERICAN
SYSTEM THAT HAD IT HAPPEN THERE.
THAT BEING SAID, THE ASSOCIATION
OF ANGER AND RACE IS ALSO A
REASONABLE ONE GIVEN THE U.S.
PATTERN, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT SOME
OF THE DATA WE LOOKED AT FOR
THIS SHOW, ON ISSUES ABOUT, ARE
THERE TOO MANY IMMIGRANTS AND
TOO MANY NON-WHITE IMMIGRANTS
COMING TO THE COUNTRY, IT WASN'T
THE CASE YOU SAW A VERY CLEAR
PATTERN OF, AS STEPHEN HARPER
CALLED THEM OLD STOCK CANADIANS
SAYING, YES, THERE ARE TOO MANY
AND NEWER CANADIANS SAYING, NO,
THERE ARE NOT TOO MANY.
IT WAS SURPRISING HOW MUCH
AGREEMENT THERE WAS, WHETHER NEW
IMMIGRANTS OR SOLD STOCK
CANADIANS, THERE WAS ALMOST
AGREEMENT.
A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE BUT NOT
TOO MUCH.
SO I DON'T THINK THE DISTINCTION
ON SORT OF RACE AND GENDER
LINES, I THINK IT'S A REASONABLE
ONE TO MAKE, BUT I WOULDN'T BLOW
IT UP AND MAKE TOO MUCH OF IT.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
ELICIT, AS ROB FORD DID, TO
FOMENT POPULISM.
NO ONE THOUGHT DONALD TRUMP
COULD HAPPEN IN THE UNITED
STATES EITHER AND HE DID.
I THINK A REASONABLE
EXPECTATION, YOU KNOW, 15 YEARS
AGO WOULD HAVE BEEN THAT A ROB
FORD WOULD NEVER EMERGE IN
TORONTO, AND HE DID.
THE NDP WINNING IN ALBERTA, YOU
KNOW, YOU SEE ALL OF THESE
UNEXPECTED PHENOMENA HAPPEN
BECAUSE ELITES FIND CREATIVE
WAYS TO APPEAL TO THINGS THAT
MAYBE WERE UNEXPECTED OR OTHER
PEOPLE DIDN'T SEE COMING.
I WOULDN'T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TRUMP CANDIDATE
AGAIN.

Ken says I WOULDN'T RULE IT OUT EITHER.
YOU NEED TO... TO BECOME
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES,
YOU NEED I THINK 48 percent OF THE
POPULAR VOTE.
YOU CAN GET ELECTED HERE AS
PRIME MINISTER WITH A MAJORITY
GOVERNMENT WITH 37 percent OF THE
POPULAR VOTE.
IT ABSOLUTELY COULD HAPPEN HERE.

Steve says IT COULD HAPPEN HERE.
A TRUMP-STYLE... I MEAN, I GUESS
THE POINT THAT YOUR COMPETITOR
WAS TRYING TO MAKE WAS THAT
CANADA IS JUST A MUCH KINDER,
GENTLER NATION, MORE
EGALITARIAN, AND THE
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE CONDITIONS
FOR THAT KIND OF...

Ken says OUR GUY WOULD HAVE HIS OWN
BRAND OF LUNACY.
TRUMP IS VERY MUCH AN AMERICAN
CHARACTER.
BUT COULD SOMEBODY REACH OFFICE
IN CANADA WHO REPRESENTED A
MINORITY... EITHER ON THE LEFT
OR THE RIGHT, REPRESENTED A
BERNIE SANDERS WORLD VIEW OR A
DONALD TRUMP WORLD VIEW?
YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.

Steve says NOT BERNIE SANDERS.
I'M THINKING MORE THE OTHER PEOPLE.

Ken says IT COULD GO EITHER WAY, IS MY
POINT, IN CANADA.

Steve says FRANK, BY YOUR
POLLING, DO WE HAVE ENOUGH ANGRY
ANGRY, EMBITTERED, UNDEREMPLOYED
WHITE MEN IN THE COUNTRY WHO ARE
TICKED OFF ABOUT THE WAY THINGS
ARE GOING AND GIVE US THE KIND
OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT THEY HAVE
IN THE UNITED STATES?

Frank says AGAIN, THINK
ABOUT THE NUMBERS.
PEOPLE ARE TELLING US, MY KID IS
OVERWHELMINGLY GOING TO DO MORE
POORLY.
I DIDN'T GIVE YOU THE MOST
RECENT NUMBERS, BUT THE POLLING
I AM DOING, 13 percent.

Steve says ARE DOING BETTER.

Frank says ARE DOING BETTER.
SO THE CELEBRATORY BAY STREET
MODEL THAT EVERYTHING IS
WONDERFUL.
LOOK, BOTH THE AMERICAN AND
CANADIAN ECONOMIES SINCE THIS
CENTURY HAS BEGUN ARE OPERATING
AT ABOUT A 1.5 percent GROWTH RATE WHEN
YOU FACTOR IN THE RECESSIONS.
OF THAT TEPID GROWTH, MUCH MORE
OF IT IS BEING APPROPRIATED BY A
NARROW CADRE AT THE TOP.
IT OSCILLATE FROM YEAR TO YEAR,
BUT OVERALL THOSE PATTERNS ARE
CLEAR.
YOU COMPARE THAT TO THE LAST 50
YEARS WHERE GROWTH WAS 3.5 percent.
THINK ABOUT THE COMPOUNDING OF
1.5 VERSUS 3.5, AND DISTRIBUTED
IN A FAR MORE EGALITARIAN
FASHION, IT'S WREAKING ALL KINDS
OF... I THINK THE ISSUE IS MAYBE
MORE CLASS THAN RACE AND CLASS
OBVIOUSLY IN THE UNITED STATES
IS HIGHLY INTERDEPENDENT WITH
RACE.
BUT IN CANADA, IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, WE'RE GOING TO SEE
VIOLENT CLASS CONFLICT.
THINK ABOUT THAT.
THE DENIAL OF THE ELITE, TEN
DAYS IT SHOOK THE WORLD, GO BACK
AND READ THAT FOR... THERE WAS
OTHER KIND OF CAUTIONARY NOTES
FOR PEOPLE WHO FORGET HISTORY.
I'M NOT SAYING WE'RE ON THE
VERGE OF BLOODY REVOLUTION, BUT
I AM SAYING SOMETHING IS REALLY
DIFFERENT RIGHT NOW AND THAT A
LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SUPER UNHAPPY.

Steve says CHRISTINE?

Christine says ISN'T
THAT THE CASE OF WHAT THEY'VE
ALWAYS SAID THROUGHOUT HISTORY
THAT THIS IS GOING TO PRODUCE
VIOLENT CLASS CONFLICT, THIS IS
GOING TO PRODUCE VIOLENT CLASS
CONFLICT, AND THAT WAS INITIALLY
WHAT COMMUNISM WAS TRYING TO
STIR UP BUT TIME AND TIME AGAIN
THEY'VE NEVER BEEN SUCCESSFUL AT
DOING THAT.
INSTEAD THEY HAVE TO SWITCH TO
IDENTITY POLITICS AND DIFFERENT
GROUPS BY RACES OR GENDER AND
THAT IS HOW THEY BEGAN THE
REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT IN
PLACES.
SO I THINK THAT BECAUSE OF PART
OF THE WAY CANADA WAS FOUNDED
WHEREBY IN THE UNITED STATES
THEY HAD TO FIGHT FOR THEIR
IDENTITY, SO THEY CREATED THIS
NARRATIVE AROUND THEM WHERE
WHITES WERE THE HOME RACE AND
THEN ANY OTHER PERSON OR ANY
OTHER PERSON OF COLOUR WHO CAME
IN, THEY WERE THE OUTSIDER,
WHEREAS HERE IN CANADA WE'RE ALL
IMMIGRANTS WHO CAME IN TOGETHER,
SO INSTEAD WE'VE INTERNALIZED
MULTICULTURALISM AS A VALUE AS
OPPOSED TO IDENTITY BEING
SOMETHING THAT'S OUR RIGHT THAT
WE HAVE TO FIGHT FOR.

Steve says YOU DO NOT SEE
GREATER POLARIZATION HAPPENING
IN THE CANADIAN WEALTH TODAY?

Christine says NO, I DON'T BELIEVE SO.

Steve says INTERESTING.
IN SPITE OF ALL THE NUMBERS HE
JUST SHOWED?

Christine says IN SPITE OF... I THINK A LOT
OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE
NARRATIVE AND THE FACT THAT
ANDREW SCHEER WAS VOTED IN AS
THE CONSERVATIVE LEADER.

Steve says THAT'S A GOOD POINT.
ANDREW SCHEER IS HARDLY AN
IDEOLOGICAL...

Frank says HE WAS TRAILING WAY BEHIND
MAX BERNIER, LIKE BY A MARGIN OF
TWO AND A HALF TIMES, SO THANK
THE DAIRY FARMERS AND SOME OF
THE INSTITUTIONAL ELITES IN THE
PARTY, THAT WAS NOT A REFLECTION
OF PUBLIC OPINION AND VOTER
PREFERENCES... I'M NOT SAYING IT
WASN'T A GOOD CHOICE.
I'M JUST SAYING THERE WAS A
DISJUNCTURE.
I THINK THE SORT OF ISSUE OF
PEOPLE... I DON'T THINK PEOPLE
ALWAYS SAY THESE THINGS.
IN FACT, ONE OF THE ADVANTAGES,
WHATEVER I'VE LOST IN MENTAL
ACUITY I MAKE UP BY ASKING THE
SAME QUESTIONS IN A SEMANTICALLY
CONSISTENT FASHION THROUGHOUT
TIME, I'M GOING TO RUN OUT OF
ROAD ON THIS ONE, BUT SO FAR
IT'S WORKING PRETTY WELL.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE THINGS, FOR
EXAMPLE, THAT SHOW THAT THE
PATTERNS OF THINGS LIKE ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM, WHICH PREVAILED FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE 20TH
CENTURY IN UPPER NORTH AMERICA,
AND CONTINUED RIGHT TO THE
BEGINNING OF THE CENTURY.
WHEN YOU ASK PEOPLE ARE YOU
GOING TO BE BETTER OFF FIVE
YEARS FROM NOW OR WORSE OFF OR
THE SAME?
BY A MARGIN OF CLOSE TO THREE TO
ONE.
THOSE NUMBERS NOW ARE COMPLETELY
FLIPPED.

Steve says CAN I ASK ABOUT
JUSTIN TRUDEAU'S VICTORY FROM A
COUPLE OF YEARS AGO?
I MEAN, THAT WAS CERTAINLY THE
STRONG SUGGESTION AT THAT TIME
WAS THAT THE COUNTRY WAS FED UP
WITH OR I GUESS A BIG ENOUGH
CHUNK OF THE COUNTRY WAS FED UP
WITH WHAT JASON KENNEY CALLED
THE WRONG TONE FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT AND WE
WERE LOOKING FOR SUNNIER WAYS.
DO YOU STILL SEE THAT OUT THERE?

Christopher says I
THINK PEOPLE WOULD OBVIOUSLY
PREFER AN OPTIMISTIC CANDIDATE
TO A PESSIMISTIC ONE.
BUT IF THEY ARE ANGRY, I MEAN,
IT'S A VERY GOOD POINT.
ANGER MANIFESTS ITSELF IN ALL
KINDS OF BIZARRE, UNPREDICTABLE
WAYS.
WE MIGHT THINK PERSONALITIES OF
THE CANDIDATES MATTER.
WE MIGHT THINK THINGS LIKE THEIR
LIFESTYLE OR, QUOTE, UNQUOTE,
MORAL UPRIGHTEDNESS MIGHT MATTER.
ALL THESE THINGS WE THINK MATTER
HISTORICALLY CAN GET THROWN OUT
OF THE WINDOW WHEN ANGER IS THE
MOTIVATING FACTOR.
THERE'S A CASE TO BE MADE THAT
WHAT WE'RE ACTUALLY SEEING NOW
IN THE UNITED STATES AND PERHAPS
TRICKLING INTO CANADA IS IN FACT
THE NORM THAT WAS SUPPRESSED
QUITE CONSIDERABLY DURING, FIRST
OF ALL, THE COLD WAR, THE BOOM
AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR.
EVEN YOU COULD ARGUE THE
DEPRESSION IN BETWEEN.
FOR EXAMPLE, POLARIZATION IN
CONGRESS IS NOW AT LEVELS THAT
LOOK LIKE POLARIZATION IN
CONGRESS USED TO LOOK LIKE, SO
IT'S ANOMALOUS IN RELATIVELY
RECENT TIME PERIODS BUT NOT
HISTORICALLY.

Steve says KEN, IN OUR LAST 30
SECONDS, SHOULD WE JOURNALISTS
SPEND LESS TIME LEFT VERSUS
RIGHT AND OPEN VERSUS ORDERED
WHEN WE COVER POLITICS TODAY?

Ken says I THINK OPEN VERSUS ORDERED
IS A REALLY INTERESTING WAY TO
LOOK AT THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE.
I THINK, THOUGH, THAT I SEE A
LOT OF FLUIDITY OUT THERE AND
LEFT AND RIGHT ARE USEFUL
LABELS, OPEN-ORDERED ARE USEFUL
LABELS.
I'M NOT SURE THREE YEARS, FIVE
YEARS DOWN THE LINE WHETHER
WE'LL STILL BE USING THEM THE
SAME WAY WE DO NOW.
VOTERS ARE COMPLICATED AND RIGHT
NOW AT THIS MOMENT I CAN'T
REMEMBER A TIME IN CANADA WHERE
THINGS HAVE SEEMED MORE OPEN,
MORE FLUID AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

Steve says POLITICAL
PROGNOSTICATION IS SUCH A PERILOUS...

Ken says WHICH IS WHY I WAS SO
IMPRESSED THAT FRANK WENT OUT ON
A LIMB.

The caption changes to "Producer: Wodek Szemberg, @wodekszemberg."

Steve says CAN I THANK THE MAN
FROM EKOS HIMSELF, FRANK GRAVES...
AND KEN WHYTE WHOSE NEW BOOK I
HIGHLY RECOMMEND, "HOOVER: AN
EXTRAORDINARY LIFE IN
EXTRAORDINARY TIMES,"
AND CHRISTOPHER COCHRANE AND
CHRISTINE BROPHY. BOTH THE PRIDE
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO.
MY ALMA MATER AS WELL. GREAT TO
HAVE EVERYBODY HERE AT TVO
TONIGHT. THANKS SO MUCH.

All the guests say THANK YOU.

Watch: Canada's Political Divides