Transcript: Kathleen Wynne's Political Future | Mar 21, 2017

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, pale peach shirt, and checked blue tie.

A caption on screen reads "Kathleen Wynne's political future. @spaikin, @theagenda."

Steve says WHENEVER SHE'S ASKED, PREMIER
KATHLEEN WYNNE ALWAYS SAYS SHE
INTENDS TO LEAD THE ONTARIO
LIBERALS INTO THE JUNE 2018
GENERAL ELECTION.
BUT THE POLLS, BOTH THE PARTY'S
AND HER PERSONAL APPROVAL
NUMBERS ARE LOW.
AND THAT'S PROMPTED A LOT OF
SPECULATION AS TO WHETHER THE
LIBERALS MIGHT IMPROVE THEIR
FORTUNES NEXT JUNE WITH A
DIFFERENT LEADER.
JOINING US NOW TO CONSIDER THE
PROS AND CONS OF THE PREMIER STAYING PUT:
TIM MURPHY, CO-CHAIR OF THE
LIBERAL'S 2018 RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN...

Tim is in his late forties, clean-shaven and balding. He's wearing horn-rimmed glasses, a green plaid suit, white and blue shirt, and a spotted blue tie.

Steve continues GREG SORBARA, FORMER
ONTARIO FINANCE MINISTER...

Greg is in his early sixties, clean-shaven, with short gray hair. He's wearing a gray suit, striped blue shirt, and checked blue tie.

Steve continues GINNY MOVAT, SENIOR CONSULTANT WITH
THE GOVERNMENT RELATIONS FIRM CRESTVIEW STRATEGY...

Ginny is in her thirties, with long wavy blond hair. She's wearing a hot pink blazer over an off-white blouse.

Steve continues MICHAEL TAUBE, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST FOR
TROY MEDIA AND THE WASHINGTON TIMES...

Michael is in his late forties, clean-shaven, with short curly gray hair. He's wearing a gray suit, a blue checkered shirt, and a striped black and blue tie.

STEVE CONTINUES AND ASHLEY CSANADY WHO POST.

Ashley is in her late twenties, with long straight blond hair. She's wearing glasses, and a burgundy blouse.

Steve continues AND IT IS GOOD TO HAVE ALL OF
YOU AROUND OUR TABLE HERE TONIGHT AT TVO.
LET'S SET THIS DISCUSSION UP,
MR. DIRECTOR, WITH THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "If an election were held today."

Steve reads data from the slate and says
THE MOST RECENT POLL WE HAVE FOR
HOW ONTARIANS FEEL ABOUT ALL
THIS IS A FORUM POLL FROM THE
END OF FEBRUARY.
PC'S AT 44.
NDP IN SECOND PLACE AT 25.
STATISTICALLY TIED, BASICALLY,
WITH THE LIBERALS AT 24.
AND THE GREENS AT 6.
ANOTHER FORUM POLL FROM LAST
WEEK HAS THE PCS WITH A
FIVE-POINT LEAD OVER THE
LIBERALS IN FORTRESS TORONTO
WHICH IS QUITE DIFFERENT.
THE LIBERALS HAVE EVERY SEAT
EXCEPT TWO IN TORONTO.
THE PREMIER'S PERSONAL
POPULARITY IS THOUGHT TO BE IN
THE MID-TEENS INCIDENTALLY.
NOW, LAST WEEK THE PREMIER
UNVEILED--OR I GUESS THIS IS A
WEEK-AND-A-HALF AGO--A
SIGNIFICANT PROGRAM TO REDUCE
ELECTRICITY PRICES.
AND AFTER DOING SO, SHE WAS
ASKED BY ROBERT BENZIE, QUEEN'S
STAR,
WHETHER IT WAS STILL HER
INTENTION TO LEAD HER TROOPS
INTO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
IN JUNE 2018.
HERE IS WHAT THE PREMIER SAID.
ROLL IT.

A clip plays in which Wynne gives a statement next to Energy minister Glenn Thibeault.

She says BY SUMMER, PEOPLE WHO ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THEIR
ELECTRICITY COSTS ARE GONNA SEE
THAT REDUCTION.
WHAT THAT MEANS IN TERMS OF
THEIR PERCEPTION OF ME OR THE
GOVERNMENT IS VERY MUCH
SECONDARY BECAUSE THE PEOPLE
I'VE TALKED TO, THEY'RE
NOT--THEY'RE NOT RAISING THESE
ISSUES FOR POLITICAL REASONS.
THEY'RE RAISING THESE ISSUES
BECAUSE THEY'RE STRUGGLING WITH
THEIR ELECTRICITY BILLS.
SO, THE FIX THAT I PUT IN
PLACE--THAT WE PUT IN PLACE--HAS
TO ADDRESS THOSE VERY REAL
BURDENS THAT PEOPLE ARE—ARE CARRYING.

[REPORTERS SHOUTING QUESTIONS]

ROBERT BENZIE says I HAD A FOLLOW-UP
JUST QUICKLY.
SO, THAT MEANS YOU ARE GONNA
STICK AROUND AS LIBERAL LEADER
AND PREMIER UNTIL JUNE 7TH?

Thibeault says I HOPE SO.

Wynne says YES, I AM.
BUT, THEY ARE TWO SEPARATE
ISSUES.
THEY ARE TWO SEPARATE ISSUES.
BUT YES, I AM.

[REPORTERS SHOUTING QUESTIONS]

The clip ends.

Steve says "YES, I AM," SHE CLEARLY SAID.
AND YET, TIM, THIS IS GONNA
SOUND LIKE AN ODD FIRST QUESTION
BECAUSE WE ARE SPENDING HALF THE
PROGRAM ON IT TONIGHT, BUT IS
THIS A STORY IN YOUR MIND?

Tim says NO.

Steve says WHY NOT?

The caption changes to "Tim Murphy. McMillan LLP."
Then, it changes again to "Dealing with the numbers."

Tim says BECAUSE IT'S A STUPID STORY.
I MEAN, IT IS--I DON'T--I TALKED
TO LOTS OF LIBERALS, AND NOT ONE
OF THEM WANTS HER TO GO.
NOT A SINGLE ONE.
IN FACT, YOU--THEY--YOU KNOW,
ANY PROCESS THERE WAS FOR AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LIBERAL
PARTY TO VOICE THE VIEW OF
SOMETHING DIFFERENT, THEY
CATEGORICALLY SAID,
"WE WANT HER."
THE CAUCUS WANTS HER.
AND, YOU KNOW, YOU LOOK AT SOME
OF--IF YOU WANT SOMEONE RUNNING
YOUR CAMPAIGN AND ELECTION WHO'S
A GOOD CAMPAIGNER, WHO IS SMART,
WHO'S PRINCIPLED, WHO'S A
FIGHTER, WELL, SHE IS ALL OF
THOSE THINGS.
AND ASK YOURSELF:
HOW WELL DID IT GO FOR THE TORY
PARTY WHEN AND MIKE HARRIS LEFT
AND ERNIE EVES CAME OR WHEN
BRIAN MULRONEY LEFT AND KIM
CAMPBELL CAME IN?
THE REALITY IS SHE IS BY FAR OUR
BEST ASSET.
AND WHEN I COMPARE HER TO THE
OPPOSITION--NOW, WE IF WANNA
HAVE A REAL SHOW, LET'S TALK
ABOUT ALL THE MUTTERINGS WE HEAR
ABOUT PATRICK BROWN AMONG TORIES
WHICH I DON'T HEAR ABOUT
KATHLEEN WYNNE AMONG LIBERALS.
BUT A GUY WHEN FACED WITH THAT
ANNOUNCEMENT COULDN'T COME UP
WITH A COHERENT ANSWER TO A
WHOLE SERIES OF QUESTIONS THAT
CREATED THIS TWITTER AND SOCIAL
MEDIA STORM, INCLUDING AMONG A
LOT OF TORIES ABOUT, "OH MY GOD,
WHAT HAVE WE DONE?"
SO, LET'S HAVE A STORY ABOUT
PATRICK BROWN.
THEN WE'VE GOT A REAL SHOW.

[PANEL CHUCKLES]

Steve says THAT'S WHY I WENT TO HIM FIRST.
OK?

[PANEL LAUGHING]

Steve says GREG SORBARA, IS THIS A
REAL STORY?

Greg says OF COURSE IT'S A REAL STORY.
IT'S A REAL DILEMMA FOR
LIBERALS.
AND TIM IS GONNA RUN A GREAT
CAMPAIGN, BUT THE FACT IS THAT
THIS IS GONNA BE A VERY
DIFFICULT CAMPAIGN.
AND, LOOK, THE NUMBERS TODAY ARE
THE SAME AND GETTING WORSE THAN
THE NUMBERS THAT WE'VE SEEN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE PAST
YEAR-AND-A-HALF OR TWO YEARS.
AND IT DOESN'T LOOK GOOD FOR THE
ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY.
THERE'S A STRANGE IRONY HERE,
STEVE, AND THAT IS THAT THIS
GOVERNMENT--THIS LIBERAL
GOVERNMENT--HAS DONE A REALLY
GOOD JOB.
ONTARIO HAS THE STRONGEST
ECONOMY OF ALL THE PROVINCES.
OUR SCHOOLS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
OUR HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM IS
IN--WE'RE HAVING A LITTLE BIT OF
SQUABBLE WITH THE DOCTORS, BUT
PEOPLE ARE GETTING THE
HEALTH CARE THAT THEY NEED.
WE ARE INVOLVED IN A HUGE AMOUNT
OF INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION
RIGHT AROUND ONTARIO.
SO, THINGS ARE VERY GOOD.
AND I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY THE
PEOPLE OF ONTARIO ARE SO
COMPLETELY DOWN ON THE ONTARIO
LIBERALS.
AND PARTICULARLY DOWN ON
KATHLEEN WYNNE.
BUT THE FACT IS THAT THE NUMBERS
DO NOT LIE.
AND THE ABILITY TO WIN THE NEXT
ELECTION IS IN GRAVE, GRAVE
DOUBT.

Steve says MICHAEL, IS THIS A STORY?

The caption changes to "Michael Taube. Troy Media."

Greg says WITH RESPECT TO TIM, YES, IT IS
ACTUALLY A STORY.
I DON'T THINK IT'S STUPID AT
ALL.
IN FACT, I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY
SOMETHING YOU NEED TO DISCUSS
AND LOOK AT.
YOU KNOW, I LOOK AT THE HISTORY,
FOR EXAMPLE, OF THE ONTARIO PCS
WHO FROM 1943 TO 1985 WERE THE
GOVERNMENT IN ONTARIO.
AND ON AVERAGE, EVERY TEN YEARS,
THEY SWITCHED LEADERS.
THEY ADJUSTED THINGS A LITTLE
BIT.
IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT THE
PLATFORM NECESSARILY SWITCHED,
BUT THERE WAS A NEW FACE; THERE
WAS A NEW VISION; IT WAS A BIT
MORE FRESH.
THERE IS SOMETHING TO THAT.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, I THINK
THAT THE ONTARIO LIBERALS
REALIZE--TO SAY IT IN A
NONPARTISAN WAY--THAT KATHLEEN
WYNNE IS A GREAT ASSET TO THEM
BECAUSE SHE IS A REALLY GOOD
CAMPAIGNER.
SHE UNDERSTANDS PEOPLE.
SHE IDENTIFIES WITH THEM.
SHE'S ACTUALLY VERY GOOD NOT
JUST IN ONE-ON-ONE SETTINGS...
SHE'S ACTUALLY VERY GOOD IN
GROUP SETTINGS.
THAT'S AN ADVANTAGE TO ANY
LEADER NO MATTER WHAT THEIR
IDEOLOGICAL STRIPE IS SHOULD
ACTUALLY HAVE.
I DON'T THINK SHE'S GOING
ANYPLACE.
QUITE FRANKLY, I THINK THAT'S
GONNA BE THE CONSENSUS OF
EVERYONE, EVEN THE TWO WHO
HAVEN'T TALKED, BECAUSE IT
DOESN'T MAKE SENSE FOR THEM AT
THIS POINT.
THERE IS NO NATURAL SUCCESSOR.
THERE'S NO ONE ELSE TO GO TO.

Steve says THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THERE
AREN'T PEOPLE INTERESTED IN THE JOB.

Michael says WELL, BUT THERE ARE ALWAYS PEOPLE.
THERE ARE ALWAYS PEOPLE WITH
KNIVES, YOU KNOW, SITTING IN
THEIR POCKETS WAITING TO PUT IT
SOMEONE ELSE'S BACK.
WE KNOW HOW POLITICS WORKS.
AT THE SAME TIME, THOUGH, I
THINK THEY STILL BELIEVE SHE IS
AN ASSET.
AND THEY LOOK AT THE LAST FEW
ELECTIONS WHERE THEY BASICALLY
LOOK LIKE THEY WERE DEAD IN THE
WATER--2011, 2014--AND SOMEHOW
THEY SURVIVED.
MAYBE SHE CAN DO IT TOO.

Steve says GINNY, WHAT'S YOUR VIEW?

Ginny says YEAH, I THINK ONTARIO IS MUCH
MORE BORING THAN PLACES LIKE
AUSTRALIA...

Michael says TRUE.

Ginny says WHERE PEOPLE PULL OUT THE
KNIFE EVERY SIX MONTHS AND
SWITCH LEADERS.

[PANEL LAUGHING]

Michael says TRUE.

The caption changes to "Ginny Movat. Crestview Strategies."

Ginny says IT'S WAY MORE BORING THAN THAT.
EVERYONE WANTS THIS TO BE SOME
CRAZY DRAMA.
AND THERE ARE REASONS FOR THE
LIBERALS TO BE CONCERNED, CERTAINLY.
AND I THINK WHERE GREG'S WRONG
IS THAT THINGS AREN'T SO GOOD
FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE.
IN TORONTO, PEOPLE ARE DOING
PRETTY WELL.
BUT OUTSIDE OF TORONTO, PEOPLE
ARE NOT DOING WELL.
AND FINALLY, IN THE LAST FEW
MONTHS, THE PREMIER HAS STARTED
TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT.
SO, THE QUESTION IS:
IS THAT GOING TO CUT THROUGH?
SO FAR, I DON'T THINK ONTARIANS
BELIEVE THAT THE PREMIER CARES
ABOUT THEIR PERSONAL POCKETBOOK
ISSUES.
THEY'RE GOING TO THEIR CHURCH TO
BAIL THEM OUT BECAUSE THEY CAN'T
AFFORD TO PAY THEIR HYDRO BILLS.
THAT WAS A STORY TODAY AT THE
NEWSPAPER.
THAT IS HAPPENING.
BUT THE PREMIER IS--ONE OF HER
STRENGTHS IS THAT SHE CAN READ
AS VERY COMPASSIONATE.
I THINK THAT'S HARD TO DO FROM
QUEEN'S PARK.
SO, WE'LL SEE.
YOU KNOW, WILL SHE GO ON TOUR
AND MEET WITH PEOPLE, LOOK INTO
THEIR EYES, YOU KNOW, MAKE A
COMMITMENT TO MAKE THINGS GET
BETTER?
AND WILL THEY THEN SEE THIS
SUMMER WHEN THE AIR CONDITIONER
UNITS GO ON, ARE THEIR HYDRO
BILLS GONNA GET BETTER?
THAT'S THE QUESTION.

Steve says ASHLEY, IS--OK, YOU'RE
THE ONE JOURNALIST HERE AROUND
THIS GROUP TODAY.

[PANEL CHUCKLES]

Steve says IS THIS A STORY?

The caption changes to "Ashley Csanady. National Post."

Ashley says I THINK SO BECAUSE THERE'S
ALWAYS THAT QUESTION WHEN A
LEADER'S POPULARITY GETS TO THIS
POINT.
IS THERE A TIME FOR THE PERSON
TO STEP ASIDE?
AND IF SHE'S GOING TO GO, IT
NEEDS BE LOGISTICALLY IN THE
NEXT FEW MONTHS SO THEY HAVE
TIME FOR A LEADERSHIP RACE AND
TIME FOR ANOTHER LEADER TO GET
THROUGH A LEGISLATIVE SESSION
AND INTRODUCE A BUDGET.
THAT SAID, DO I THINK THAT ANY
OF THE RUMBLINGS ARE
PARTICULARLY CREDIBLE THAT SHE'S
GOING TO GO?
NO.
YOU'RE ACTUALLY ONLY THE SECOND
LIBERAL THAT I'VE GOTTEN TO SAY
THAT THEY THINK SHE SHOULD GO OR
BEING EVEN A POSSIBILITY.

Greg says NO, I DIDN'T QUITE SAY
THAT.
DIDN'T QUITE SAY THAT.
BUT WE CAN GET TO THAT LATER.

Ashley says OK.
BUT YOU'RE ONLY THE SECOND
PERSON WHO'S EVEN SAID TO ME
THAT REMOTELY THEY SHOULD BE
CONSIDERING IT.
EVERY SINGLE OTHER PERSON
I'VE--I'VE TALKED TO ABOUT THIS
ISSUE IS LIKE, "NO, SHE'S GONNA
STAY AND FIGHT ON.
SHE'S A FIGHTER.
SHE'S THE"--AS TIM SAID--"THE
BEST ASSET WE HAVE."
SO, I THINK THE MOST REALISTIC
THING I'VE HEARD IS THAT IF
SHE'S GOING TO GO, IT'S THE FEW
MUTTERINGS OF DISCONTENT ARE
BASICALLY WAITING TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS BY EARLY SUMMER.
IF THIS HYDRO CUT RESONATES AND
IF THE NUMBERS START GOING
UPWARDS, SHE'S DEFINITELY
STAYING PUT.
OK, WE'RE GONNA FALLOW-UP ON ALL
OF THOSE THINGS, BOTH TIMING AND
ELECTRICITY PRICE CUTS IN A
SECOND.
HOWEVER, MR. SORBARA, I WANNA GO
BACK TO YOU.

Greg says YEAH.

Steve says YOU'RE A GUY WHO'S BEEN PART OF
THE ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY FOR 35
YEARS.

Greg says YEAH.

Steve says YOU'RE A FORMER FINANCE
MINISTER; YOU'RE A FORMER MPP...
YOU'RE A FORMER PARTY PRESIDENT.

Greg says AND CAMPAIGN MANAGER.

Steve says AND CAMPAIGN...

Greg says NO, CAMPAIGN CHAIR.

Steve says CAMPAIGN CHAIR FOR--YES,
FOR DALTON MCGUINTY'S CAMPAIGNS.

Greg says I'VE DONE IT ALL.
NOT VERY WELL, BUT I DID IT ALL.

[PANEL CHUCKLES]

Steve says I WANNA KNOW TWO THINGS.
NUMBER ONE, DOES THE PREMIER
CALL YOU FOR ADVICE?

Greg says NO.

The caption changes to "Stay or go?"

Steve says NUMBER TWO, IF SHE DID CALL YOU
FOR ADVICE AND SAID, "OK, GREG,
YOU KNOW MY ABILITIES; YOU SEE
THE NUMBERS; YOU SEE WHAT THE
POTENTIAL IS, WHAT SHOULD I DO?"
WHAT WOULD YOU SAY?

The caption changes to "Greg Sorbara. Former Ontario Liberal Finance Minister."

Greg says WELL, I THINK I WOULD SAY THIS:
THE, UH--I THINK I WOULD SAY
THAT IT IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY
THAT YOU'LL WIN THE NEXT ELECTION.
I MEAN, THE FACTS ARE THE FACTS.
THE NUMBERS ARE OUT THERE.
THEY HAVE BEEN VERY BAD.
I HAVE NOT SEEN IN FOLLOWING
POLITICS FOR 40 YEARS, A PARTY
IN THE LAST YEAR OF ITS MANDATE
TURN NUMBERS AROUND WHEN THE
NUMBERS ARE AS BAD AS THEY ARE.
AND THEY'RE PARTICULARLY BAD FOR HER.
AND THERE ARE NOT A FEW
RUMBLINGS AMONG A FEW MALCONTENTS.
THERE'S A WHOLE LOT OF PEOPLE IN
THE ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY WHO
THINK THAT IT'S ALL OVER.
THE PARTY IS WITHOUT FUNDS.
IT DOESN'T HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO
RUN A CAMPAIGN RIGHT NOW.
AND THE GOVERNMENT CHANGED THE
RULES SO THAT IT'S GONNA BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO RAISE THAT MONEY.
SO, IF--UNLESS THINGS CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY, THE ONTARIO
LIBERAL PARTY, SADLY, IS GONNA
LOSE THE NEXT ELECTION.
AND IF THAT HAPPENS, THE PREMIER
WILL RESIGN AFTER THAT, AND
THERE WILL BE A LEADERSHIP--AND
A RENEWAL OF THE PERSON AT THE TOP.
SO, I WOULD SAY YOU HAVE TO ASK
YOURSELF, PREMIER, WHETHER GIVEN
THAT SCENARIO, IT'S BETTER TO
STEP DOWN BEFORE THE NEXT
ELECTION AND DO WHAT DALTON
MCGUINTY DID AND LET SOMEONE
ELSE GIVE IT A TRY, OR TO STAY
AND TRY AND PULL IT THROUGH?
BUT, YOU KNOW, I HAVE--I'VE
TALKED TO A LOT OF LIBERALS WHO
ARE FRANKLY DESPONDENT ABOUT
THEIR PROSPECTS, SITTING MEMBERS
AND MINISTERS WHO SAY, "IF THE
ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, I'D
COME IN THIRD."

Steve says BUT THE
ELECTION ISN'T TODAY.

Greg says AND THE QUESTION, THE BIG
UNKNOWN IS CAN YOU TURN IT
AROUND IN A YEAR?
I HOPE SO.

Steve says IT'S MORE THAN THAT.
IT'S MORE THAN THAT.

Greg says NO...

Steve says IT'S 15 MONTHS.

Greg says WELL, YEAH, BUT IT'S--OK, IT'S
15 MONTHS.
I HOPE SO, BUT I HAVE NOT SEEN A
GOVERNMENT PARTY DO THAT,
FRANKLY, EVER.

Steve says A LOT TO TAKE ON THERE.
TIM, GO.

The caption changes to "Tim Murphy. Ontario Liberal Campaign Co-Chair."

Tim says YEAH, WELL I'VE BEEN AT MANY
CAMPAIGN MEETINGS WHERE GREG
SAID THINGS WERE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT HE JUST
SAID--OR MR. CHANCELLOR, I GUESS.
AND--THAT WHERE, YOU KNOW, I
MEAN, WE HAD DALTON MCGUINTY
WENT THROUGH, YOU KNOW, '99,
2003, 2011--OR, 2007, 2011.
AND THERE WERE AT LEAST--YOU
KNOW, ONE OF THOSE A LOSS, AND
TWO OF THOSE, PEOPLE THOUGHT HE
WAS GONNA LOSE.
AND HE WENT THROUGH ALL OF THEM.
AND HE DID LOSE WON, BUT HE LOST
A BUNCH.
AND GREG WAS AT THE HELM, AND
I'M SURE HE WAS...

Steve says HE WON
A BUNCH, YOU MEAN?

Tim says AND HE WON A BUNCH.
SORRY, WON A BUNCH.
LOST ONE.

Steve says LOST ONE...

Greg says HE ONLY LOST ONE
ELECTION.

Tim says SORRY, AGREED.
LOST ONE, WON A BUNCH.

Steve says YEAH.

Tim says APOLOGIZE IF I SAID,
"LOST."
AND GREG WAS, YOU KNOW, HIS
CAMPAIGN CHAIR AND PARTY
PRESIDENT AND FINANCE MINISTER
THROUGH MUCH OF THAT.
AND I'M SURE HEARD A LOT OF
MUTTERINGS ABOUT DALTON THROUGH
SOME OF THAT.
ESPECIALLY AT POINTS IN ADVANCE
OF THE '07 AND '11 ELECTION.
THAT ALL BEING SAID, YOU KNOW
WHAT, THERE IS--YOU KNOW, WE ARE
AT LOW NUMBERS IN THE POLLS
RIGHT NOW.
THERE'S NO QUESTION.
I'M NOT GONNA DENY THAT.
AND THAT BEING SAID, I THINK
THERE ARE 15 MONTHS.
AND WHAT WE DO KNOW ABOUT
ONTARIO POLITICS AND HAS PROVEN
TIME AND TIME AGAIN IS THE
ELECTION ACTUALLY MATTERS.

Steve says THE CAMPAIGN?

Tim says YEAH, 'CAUSE FRANKLY
ONTARIANS DON'T PAY A LOT OF
ATTENTION IN BETWEEN ELECTIONS
TO ONTARIO POLITICS.
LIKE, YOU CAN'T GET IT IN--YOU
KNOW, THEY DON'T WRITE ABOUT IT
IN THE
GLOBE AND MAIL
OR, YOU
KNOW, IT'S BARELY ON THE NEWS.
MAYBE ON LOCAL NEWS.
BUT THEY DO PAY ATTENTION TO
CAMPAIGNS AND MAKE DECISIONS
DURING CAMPAIGNS.
AND I ACTUALLY AM
PRETTY--FEELING PRETTY GOOD
ABOUT THE COMPARISON THAT WILL
BE MADE ONCE PEOPLE PAY
ATTENTION.

The caption changes to "Tim Murphy, @TJHisLaw."

Tim continues NOW, WE GOT SOME WORK TO DO.
I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY
QUESTION THE HYDRO HATE--AND I
AGREE WITH YOU THE POCKETBOOK
ISSUE THAT HYDRO RATES BECAME
KIND OF AN EXEMPLAR FOR OR A
CHALLENGE AND A PROBLEM.
AND--WHICH IS WHY IT NEEDED TO
BE ADDRESSED.
AND I THINK, OBVIOUSLY, THERE IS
AN UNDERCURRENT OF ANXIETY ABOUT
POCKETBOOK ISSUES AMONG
ONTARIANS.
AND I ALSO AGREE THERE ARE
REGIONALLY VARYING DEGREES OF
SUCCESS IN THE ECONOMY IN
ONTARIO.
AND THOSE HAVE TO BE PAID
ATTENTION TO.
THAT ALL BEING SAID, YOU KNOW,
WHEN YOU SIT THERE AND THINK
ABOUT, OK, IF I CAN--IF THE
VOTERS ARE PREPARED TO LISTEN TO
HER ON THOSE SUBJECT MATTERS,
WHICH WE THINK THE HYDRO
ANNOUNCEMENT CREATES ROOM FOR
THAT TO BE TRUE, THAT AMONG THE
THREE OF THEM, THE ONE WHO'S
MOST LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A
PLAN; TO BE SEEN AS, YOU KNOW,
HAVING THE ABILITY TO PUT IT IN
PLACE; TO COME UP WITH SOME GOOD
IDEAS AND IMPLEMENT IT IS GOING
TO BE HER COMPARED TO THE OTHER TWO.
AND FACED WITH THAT CHOICE...

The caption changes to "Connect with us: @theagenda, TVO.org, Facebook, YouTube, Periscope, Instagram."

Steve says BUT THAT IS THE QUESTION,
GINNY.
HAVE PEOPLE--FOR SOME
POLITICIANS, THERE COMES A TIME
WHERE THEY TUNE YOU OUT AND THEY
STOP LISTENING.
YOU DON'T KNOW THAT TILL AFTER
THEY'VE LOST.
DO YOU THINK PEOPLE ARE STILL
LISTENING?

Ginny says NO, PEOPLE ARE NOT LISTENING TO
KATHLEEN WYNNE TODAY.
CAN SHE RE-ENGAGE THEM GOING
INTO A CAMPAIGN PERIOD?
SHE'S REALLY, REALLY ENGAGING ON
THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL.
SHE'S GOOD IN ADS.
AND SHE'S GOOD, LIKE MICHAEL
SAID, ON ONE-ON-ONE AND IN
GROUPS.
THE QUESTION IS CAN THEY GET
PAST THEIR--THIS LONG PERIOD OF
DISENGAGEMENT AND FRANKLY
DESPONDENCE.
I MEAN, IT'S KIND OF--IT'S NOT
JUST DISENGAGEMENT.
IT'S KIND OF A NEGATIVE FORM OF
DISENGAGEMENT.
LIKE, "I'M JUST FED UP.
I'M GONNA STOP PAYING ATTENTION
'CAUSE THERE'S NOTHING LEFT THIS
GOVERNMENT CAN DO FOR ME."
NOW, I DON'T THINK THESE PEOPLE
ARE STAMPEDING TO--EITHER THE
PCS OR THE NDP.
I THINK IN POLLING, THEY'RE SORT
OF PARKING THEIR VOTE.
SO, I THINK THERE'S A HUGE
AMOUNT OF UNDECIDEDS AND SORT OF
DISINTERESTED UNDECIDEDS.
THE QUESTION IS:
CAN SHE RE-ENGAGE THEM ON THE
CAMPAIGN TRAIL?
AND THEN WHAT WILL HER OPPONENTS
DO AND HOW WILL THEY FACTOR INTO
THIS?
AND WE'VE SEEN ANDREA HORWATH
CAMPAIGN BEFORE.
SHE'S A STRONG PERSONALITY, BUT
I THINK THERE ARE WEAKNESSES IN
HER CAMPAIGN TEAM AND HER
CAMPAIGN APPROACH.
WE'VE NEVER SEEN PATRICK BROWN
CAMPAIGN BEFORE, SO HE'S A
QUESTION MARK.

Steve says HE HAS NEVER LED A
PROVINCE-WIDE CAMPAIGN.

Ginny says AND IT'S A SCARY QUESTION MARK
BECAUSE IT'S AN UNKNOWN FOR LIBERALS.

Steve says ON THAT, I WANNA GO TO
MICHAEL TAUBE...

Michael says SURE.

Steve says BECAUSE YOU GAVE AN INTERVIEW
ON NEWSTALK 1010 NOT TOO
LONG AGO...

Michael says MM HMM, YEAH.

Steve says IN WHICH YOU SAID--AND LET'S
KEEP IN MIND, YOU'RE A
CONSERVATIVE.
YOU'RE A FORMER STEPHEN
HARPER SPEECHWRITER.

Michael says YEAH, SUPPOSEDLY.

[PANEL LAUGHS]

Steve says YOU WERE ALL OVER THE LEADER OF
THE ONTARIO PC PARTY...
FOR BEING SUBPAR IN HIS
PERFORMANCE, PARTICULARLY AS IT
RELATED TO THE ELECTRICITY
PRICING ISSUE.
THAT'S RIGHT.

Steve says OK.

Michael says I WAS.

Steve says OK.
SO, HAVING SAID THAT, IF YOU'RE
PATRICK BROWN TODAY, DO YOU WANT
KATHLEEN WYNNE THERE OR YOU
WANNA TAKE ON SOMEBODY ELSE?

Michael says THAT'S AN INTERESTING QUESTION.
I THINK THAT HE WOULD PROBABLY
LOOK AT IT THIS WAY:
YES, IT WAS A BAD INTERVIEW.
AS I CALLED IT, IT WAS AN
"UNMITIGATED DISASTER."
IT REALLY WAS.
BUT I DID AND SAID AFTER...

Steve says THIS IS BROWN'S INTERVIEW
WITH JOHN MOORE.

Michael says YEAH.
BUT I ALSO SAID THAT THE
PERCEPTION OF AN UNMITIGATED
DISASTER FOR AN INTERVIEW VERSUS
BEING AN UNMITIGATED DISASTER
FOR A GOVERNMENT COULD BE TWO
VERY DIFFERENT THINGS.
I THINK THE VOTERS ARE GONNA
LOOK AT IT A LITTLE BIT
DIFFERENTLY.
CERTAINLY--I AGREE WITH
GINNY--NO ONE REALLY KNOWS WHAT
PATRICK BROWN WOULD DO AS LEADER
OF A PROVINCE.
WE DON'T KNOW AT THIS STAGE.
PATRICK HAS OBVIOUSLY HAD A LONG
POLITICAL CAREER.
HE WAS IN CITY POLITICS IN
BARRIE.
HE WAS A FEDERAL MP.
BUT NEVER A CABINET POSITION.
HE BASICALLY WAS A BACKBENCHER.
BUT HE SAT ON COMMITTEES AND DID
DIFFERENT THINGS.

Steve says BUT WHO DOES HE WANT
THERE?

Michael says I THINK HE DOES WANT WYNNE.
AND THE REASON IS BECAUSE YOU'RE
GONNA CHOMP AT THE BIT.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF
POLITICS, YOU LOOK AT POLL
NUMBERS.
EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE TO TAKE THEM
WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, THE
NATURAL THING IS YOU'RE LOOKING
AT A PREMIER WHO'S SITTING AT
ABOUT 18 PERCENT, ROUGHLY, IN THE
POLLS.
AND AS YOU SHOWED--THE FORUM
RESEARCH POLL--THEY'RE WAY, WAY
DOWN TO THE--TO THE PCS.
SO, RIGHT NOW, EVERYTHING LOOKS
LIKE IT'S ADVANTAGEOUS.
HERE'S WHERE I WOULD TAKE A
LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENCE WITH
GREG--ALTHOUGH, I APPRECIATE THE
FACT THAT HE WAS CRITICAL 'CAUSE
I WAS CRITICALLY OCCASIONALLY OF
MY GUYS--THE HARPER TORIES AT
TIMES--I REMEMBER THE LAST
FEDERAL ELECTION.
IF YOU REMEMBER, BEFORE IT
HAPPENED, JUSTIN TRUDEAU AND THE
LIBERALS WERE SITTING IN THIRD
PLACE.

The caption changes to "Michael Taube, @michaeltaube."

Michael continues THE NDP ACTUALLY, ACCORDING TO
MOST OPINION POLLS, LED BETWEEN
8 TO 12 MONTHS, GIVE OR TAKE.
I'M NOT DOING IT EXACTLY, BUT
ROUGHLY THAT STAGE.
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
JUSTIN TRUDEAU IS THE LEADER OF
THIS COUNTRY.

Steve says THAT'S FAIR ENOUGH.

Michael says SO, ANYTHING IN POSSIBLE.
AND 15 MONTHS, QUITE FRANKLY,
GREG, IS A LONG TIME.
IT REALLY IS.
ONE DAY IS A LIFETIME IN
POLITICS.
15 MONTHS--WE HAVE MUCH, MUCH TIME.

Steve says WE HAVE ONE FINANCE
MINISTER--FORMER FINANCE
MINISTER WITH US HERE RIGHT NOW.
I WANT A QUOTE FROM ANOTHER.
THIS IS FROM DWIGHT DUNCAN WHO
SUCCEEDED YOU AS FINANCE
MINISTER AND SENT ME THIS EMAIL TODAY...

A quote appears on screen, under the title "Not to be underestimated?" The quote reads "People have underestimated her since she launched her provincial political career and I believe the opposition parties are doing that again. Ontario Liberals are not.
If there is unrest in the caucus and party I have not heard it. I have not spoken to a single person who thinks anyone other than Kathleen should lead our party through the next election.
While I wouldn't blame her if she decided to retire I am told by many that she is not going anywhere. That is a good thing for the party and province."
Quoted from Dwight Duncan, via email. March 17, 2017.

Steve says ASHLEY, I WANNA FOLLOW UP WITH
YOU ON THAT AND FIND OUT WHETHER
IN YOUR CONVERSATIONS OR IN WHAT
YOU HEAR FROM
NATIONAL POST
PEOPLE WHO COVER QUEEN'S PARK,
HOW BIG, IF ANY, IS THE
GROUNDSWELL AMONG LIBERALS TO
DROP HER?

Ashley says I DON'T THINK THERE IS A
GROUNDSWELL.
LIKE, I DON'T THINK YOU CAN EVEN
CALL IT A "SWELL."
I SPOKE WITH A MEMBER
OF CAUCUS JUST YESTERDAY
WHEN I KNEW I WAS COMING ON
THIS SHOW ABOUT THIS, AND THEY
SAID, YOU KNOW, "IT'S NOT
AN OPEN DISCUSSION."
MAYBE THERE ARE A
FEW PEOPLE WHO ARE
SORT OF LOOKING AT--I MEAN,
POLITICS ATTRACTS AMBITIOUS PEOPLE.
THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO, OF COURSE,
WOULD MULL THE IDEA OF A
LEADERSHIP BID IF SHE WANTS
TO GO, THERE ARE PEOPLE
WHO ARE NEW WHO
HAVEN'T BEEN THROUGH,
YOU KNOW, A DOWN IN THE
POLLS BEFORE AN ELECTION.
LIKE, SOME OF THEM WERE VETERAN
MEMBERS OF CAUCUS.
I MEAN, IN 2011, I REMEMBER I
WAS A BRAND-NEW REPORTER FOR THE
WATERLOO RECORD.
AND THE PRESUMPTION WAS TIM
HUDAK WAS GOING TO WIN.
AND DALTON MCGUINTY WAS GOING
DOWN.
AND, YOU KNOW, THEY SQUEAKED OUT
THEIR MINORITY AND THEN WYNNE
WON ANOTHER MAJORITY.
AND I THINK PEOPLE TEND TO MAKE
ASSUMPTIONS IN BETWEEN ELECTIONS
IN ONTARIO POLITICS.
I THINK THAT'S A VERY DANGEROUS
THING BECAUSE I DON'T THINK
PEOPLE TUNE IN TO ONTARIO
POLITICS BETWEEN ELECTIONS VERY MUCH.
AND QUITE OFTEN, PEOPLE CONFUSE
WHAT LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT IS IN
CHARGE OF WHAT QUITE OFTEN.

Michael says YES.

Ashley says THE BIG LIABILITY FOR KATHLEEN
WYNNE WAS THE HYDRO FILE. AND...

Steve says WELL, LET'S PICK UP
ON THAT, IF I CAN.
LET'S GO--SHELDON, LET'S PUT
THIS UP BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT
DID ANNOUNCE A 25 PERCENT ON AVERAGE
ACROSS THE BOARD RATE CUT TO
KICK IN JUNE THE 1ST.
AND THE INITIAL INDICATION WAS
THE PUBLIC LIKED WHAT IT HEARD.

A slate appears on screen, with the title "We like cheap power."

Steve reads data from the slate and says
82 PERCENT SURVEYED SAID THEY SOMEWHAT
OR STRONGLY APPROVED OF THAT ANNOUNCEMENT.
ONLY 14 PERCENT DISAPPROVED.
78 PERCENT THOUGHT THE RATE CUT WOULD
HELP THEIR FAMILY BUDGET.
67 PERCENT THOUGHT THE RATE CUT WOULD
NOW MAKE THEIR ELECTRICITY BILLS
AFFORDABLE.
GREG, DOES THIS ANNOUNCEMENT
CHANGE THE PREMIER'S POLITICAL
CIRCUMSTANCES?

Greg says NOT MUCH.

Steve says REALLY?
NOT MUCH.

The caption changes to "The hydro factor."

Greg says NO, NOT MUCH.
BECAUSE THE PROBLEM THAT SHE'S
FACING IS NOT ON A PARTICULAR
ISSUE.
IT'S NOT ABOUT HYDRO.
THERE IS--THERE IS A MOOD AROUND
THE PROVINCE ABOUT CHANGING THE
GOVERNMENT, PARTICULARLY ONE LED
BY PREMIER WYNNE.
AGAIN, I DON'T UNDERSTAND IT.
I DON'T AGREE WITH IT.
MICHAEL MENTIONED THE FEDERAL
ELECTION.
BUT, MICHAEL, IT WAS THE VERY
SAME THING IN THE FEDERAL
ELECTION.
THE PEOPLE OF CANADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THAT ELECTION SAID,
"WE'RE GETTING RID OF THE HARPER
GOVERNMENT."
THEY DIDN'T KNOW WHERE THEY WERE
GOING.
AND IT SURPRISED US ALL, AND
MADE SOME OF US VERY HAPPY, THAT
IT WAS WITH JUSTIN TRUDEAU AND
NOT WITH THE OTHER GUY.
BUT I SENSE THE SAME MOOD IN ONTARIO.
IT'S NOT ABOUT HYDRO; IT'S NOT
ABOUT RENTS; IT'S NOT ABOUT
TRAFFIC; IT'S ABOUT CHANGING THE
GOVERNMENT.
AND IF YOU GO BACK--MOST OF YOU
CANNOT GO BACK TO 1994, BUT TIM
AND I CAN--BACK IN 1994 IN
ONTARIO, BOB RAE'S GOVERNMENT WAS TOAST.
AND HIS KIDS SAID, "DAD, YOU'RE TOAST.
YOU'RE GOING TO GET DEFEATED."
AND MY PROBLEM IS THAT THAT SAME
MOOD SEEMS TO BE PERMEATING
CERTAINLY OUTSIDE OF
THE GREATER TORONTO AREA.
AND NOW WITH THE POLLS IN
TORONTO, IT'S REALLY VERY SCARY.

The caption changes to "Greg Sorbara, @Greg_Sorbara."

Greg continues AND THE FACT IS THAT--I MEAN,
YOU'VE TALKED TO SOME CAUCUS MEMBERS.
I'VE TALKED TO CAUCUS MEMBERS.
AND WHEN MORE AND MORE OF THEM
REALIZE, "I'M MAYBE GONNA LOSE
MY JOB," THE DISCUSSION IS GONNA
GET MORE INTENSE.
UNFORTUNATELY, REALLY THE FACT
IS THE PARTY'S OUT OF TIME.
EITHER THEY DECIDE THAT THEY'RE
GONNA HAVE A LEADERSHIP
CONVENTION IN SEPTEMBER OR
KATHLEEN IS GONNA LEAD--IS GONNA
LEAD THE PARTY INTO AN ELECTION.
I HOPE SHE WINS.
I DON'T THINK SHE WILL.
AND SHE WILL HAVE TO STEP DOWN
AFTER.
AND SO THE QUESTION THAT SHE HAS
TO CONFRONT ALL ALONE WALKING IN
THE SNOW IS:
IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THE
MANY, SHOULD THE ONE SET HER
INTERESTS ASIDE?
TIM, YOU'RE HER--YOU ARE HER
CO-CHAIR...

Tim says YEAH.

Steve says FOR THE UPCOMING CAMPAIGN.
HAVE YOU EVER HAD THAT
CONVERSATION WITH HER?

Tim says NO, AND NO NEED TO.
NOT A FAIR-WEATHER FRIEND OF THE
PREMIER.
MY VIEW IS BOTH AS A--YOU KNOW,
AND LET'S UNDERSTAND ONE THING,
RIGHT, I ACTUALLY DIDN'T SUPPORT
HER IN THE LEADERSHIP.
I DIDN'T KNOW HER AT THE TIME.
I CAME TO SUPPORT HER AND SEE
HER UP CLOSE.
AND PHENOMENALLY, BY FAR,
THANK--YOU KNOW, THANK, FRANKLY,
GOD THAT WE DID ELECT HER AS
LEADER OF THE PARTY AT THE TIME
'CAUSE SHE IS DOING A GREAT JOB
FOR THE PROVINCE AND A GREAT JOB
AS LEADER OF THE PARTY.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, I LOOK AT--I
HAVE HAD THOSE CONVERSATIONS
WITH LEADERS.
AND I DON'T SEE THE NEED TO HAVE
IT WITH HER.
BECAUSE WHEN I KINDA LOOK AT
THE--YOU KNOW, THE RECORD
OF--THAT SHE'S ASSEMBLING AND
THE THINGS SHE CAN DO AND HAS
DONE, I THINK SHE'S GOT A
PHENOMENAL--SO I DISAGREE
WITH--A PHENOMENAL CHANCE OF
WINNING THE NEXT ELECTION.
AND I THINK I DISAGREE WITH GREG
WHO'S CLEARLY, YOU KNOW, MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE VAGARIES OF
TODAY'S POLL THEN THE PROSPECTS
OF WHAT COULD BE WHICH HE USED
TO BE LIKE, UNFORTUNATELY.
BUT...

Greg says NO, AND, TIM, LOOK--I AM
NOT--I AM NOT A FAIR-WEATHER FRIEND.
AND I DID SUPPORT KATHLEEN IN
THE LEADERSHIP RACE.
AND I THINK SHE HAS WORKED VERY
HARD AND DONE A GREAT JOB.
I'M JUST ANALYZING THE HARSH AND
UNHAPPY POLITICAL REALITIES THAT
MY PARTY CONFRONTS.
AND, YOU KNOW, IT'S--IT'S NOT
ALL ABOUT PROTECTING THE
INTEREST OF THE LEADER.
IT'S ABOUT...

Tim says OF COURSE IT IS.

Greg says WHAT'S IN THE BEST INTEREST OF
THE PARTY.

Tim says OF COURSE IT IS.

Steve says AS YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S IN
THE BEST INTEREST OF THE LIBERAL
PARTY RIGHT NOW, WHICH I KNOW IS
SOMETHING THAT DOESN'T COME
NATURALLY TO YOU...

[PANEL LAUGHING]

Michael says IT'S HARD FOR SOME OF
US IN THIS ROOM.
TRUST ME.

Greg says TRY.
IT WILL MAKE YOU FEEL GOOD.

Steve says WHAT COMES TO MIND?

The caption changes to "Delicate Timing."
Then, it changes again to "Ginny Movat, @GinnyMovat."

Ginny says SO, THE NICE THING ABOUT BEING A
CENTRIST PARTY AND PARTICULARLY
THE ONTARIO LIBERALS IS THAT
YOU'RE NOT HAMSTRUNG BY
PRINCIPLE AND FISCAL
RESPONSIBILITY.
YOU KNOW, YOU CAN DO, AND THE
LIBERALS HAVE DONE, REALLY BIG
THINGS TO TRY TO HOLD--KEEP
GOVERNMENT OVER THE YEARS.
AND WE SAW MCGUINTY DO IT.
YOU KNOW, THERE ARE--THERE ARE A
LOT OF PEOPLE IN THIS PROVINCE
THAT ARE EITHER EMPLOYED BY THE
GOVERNMENT, RELATED TO SOMEONE
WHO'S EMPLOYED BY THE
GOVERNMENT, NEIGHBOUR OF SOMEONE
WHO'S EMPLOYED BY THE
GOVERNMENT.
AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN
EMPLOYED BY THE GOVERNMENT HAVE
BEEN DOING REALLY, REALLY WELL
IN ONTARIO.
YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE
THEIR KIDS IN FULL-DAY
KINDERGARTEN.
IT WAS A CRAZY EXPENSIVE
PROGRAM.
BUT, YOU KNOW, WHEN PEOPLE SIT
AND THINK ABOUT IT, THEY GO,
"YEAH, DALTON MCGUINTY GAVE ME,
YOU KNOW, FREE DAYCARE,
BASICALLY."
SO, IF I WERE THE LIBERALS, I'D
BE SAYING, "IF YOU ELECT
ANOTHER GOVERNMENT, YOU
WILL LOSE THAT.
YOU WILL LOSE THAT
SPECIAL STATUS."
NOW, FOR TAXPAYERS THAT
DON'T--THAT AREN'T EMPLOYED BY
THE GOVERNMENT AND
THAT DON'T HAVE KIDS IN
CRADLE-TO-GRAVE PROGRAMS,
IT'S ACTUALLY NOT SO GREAT
'CAUSE THEY'RE THE ONES
GOING TO THE CHURCHES TO PAY OFF
THEIR HYDRO BILLS.
BUT THE LIBERALS ARE NOT
HAMSTRUNG BY THE KINDS OF THINGS
THAT YOU CONFRONT AS A PARTY ON
THE LEFT OR A PARTY ON THE RIGHT.
THEY CAN GO INTO AN ELECTION
PERIOD, DECIDE, "HEY, YOU KNOW,
ROAD TOLLS, YEAH, WE THOUGHT
THAT IT WAS THE RIGHT PUBLIC
POLICY THING TO DO."
"OH, WE'VE CHANGED OUR MIND
'CAUSE WE SAW SOME POLLING."
AND, YOU KNOW, SO THEY'RE
NOT--THEY'RE NOT...

Greg says THAT'S WHAT PATRICK BROWN DID.

[PANEL LAUGHING]

Ginny says THEY'RE NOT REINED IN
BY--BY, YOU KNOW--TRYING--HAVING
TO STICK--AND THEIR PARTY
MEMBERS WILL REALLY MOVE WITH
THEM AND DO WHAT HAS TO DO DONE.
AND KATHLEEN WYNNE IS--WANTS TO
WIN.
DON'T UNDERESTIMATE HER WANTING
TO WIN.
AND SHE'LL DO WHAT IT TAKES.
AND SHE'LL LOOK AT THE POLLING
AND SEE WHERE SHE CAN CUT AND
WEDGE, AND SHE'LL...

Steve says WELL, AT THE RISK OF INCURRING
THE WRATH OF OUR GOOD FRIEND MR.
MURPHY AT THE END OF THE TABLE
HERE, OBVIOUSLY, THERE ARE SOME
PEOPLE IN THE LIBERAL PARTY WHO
THINK THAT SHE NEEDS TO STEP
DOWN IN ORDER TO REFRESH THE
BRAND IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ELECTION.
I WANNA PICK UP ON YOUR COMMENT
EARLIER ABOUT TIMING.
THAT SUGGESTS THAT THAT
DECISION, IF IT'S GOING TO BE
MADE, NEEDS TO BE MADE IN THE
NEXT MONTH BECAUSE YOU'VE GOTTA
HAVE A LEADERSHIP CONVENTION IN
THE FALL TO LEAVE THE NEW LEADER
AT LEAST EIGHT MONTHS TO PUT A
NEW COAT OF PAINT ON THIS THING.
DOES THAT SOUND RIGHT?

The caption changes to "Ashley Csanady, @AshleyCsanady."

Ashley says YEAH, SOMEONE SAID TO ME JUNE.
IF SHE'S GONNA GO, SHE HAS TO
MAKE HER CALL BY JUNE.
SHE CAN PROROGUE THE HOUSE.
AND SHE CAN--YOU KNOW, A
LEADERSHIP CONVENTION CAN BE
SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER.
THEY CAN BRING STUFF BACK A TINY
BIT LATER THAN THEY USUALLY
WOULD AND BASICALLY GO THROUGH A
BUDGET CYCLE.
I--AGAIN, I DO NOT THINK SHE'S
GOING TO STEP DOWN.
I THINK IT'S AGAINST HER NATURE.
I THINK SHE HAS ONE MORE BIG
FIGHT OF AN ELECTION IN HER.
I ACTUALLY THINK SHE'S PRETTY
EAGER TO TAKE ON PATRICK BROWN.
AND, YOU KNOW, AS MUCH AS YOU
TALK ABOUT THE--THE PRINCIPLES
AND THE POLICIES, THE THING
ABOUT BEING THE GOVERNMENT IS
YOU DO HAVE TO GO INTO THE
ELECTION WITH THE BAGGAGE OF
EVERYTHING YOU'VE DONE.
THE ADVANTAGE THAT PATRICK BROWN
HAS RIGHT NOW IS THAT PEOPLE
DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT HIM.
HE'S NOT DEFINED YET IN THE WAY
THAT TIM HUDAK WAS GOING INTO
BOTH OF THE ELECTIONS THAT HE
LOST.
THAT'S BOTH AN OPPORTUNITY AND
POTENTIALLY SOMETHING THAT COULD
BE WHAT SINKS HIM, IF THEY
DON'T.

Steve says WELL, WITH JUST A FEW MINUTES
LEFT HERE, I DO WANNA PUT THAT
TO YOU, GREG, BECAUSE IF YOU'RE
KATHLEEN WYNNE, YOU'RE SITTING
THERE LOOKING ACROSS THE FLOOR
OF THE LEGISLATOR AND YOU'RE
THINKING, "OK, THERE'S ANDREA HORWATH.
I BEAT YOU ONCE ALREADY.
AND THERE'S PATRICK BROWN.
AND YOU'VE NEVER LED A
PROVINCE-WIDE CAMPAIGN.
YOU HAVE BASICALLY NO TRACK
RECORD FROM TEN YEARS IN OTTAWA.
I THINK I CAN BEAT YOU TOO."
WHY SHOULD SHE STEP DOWN?

The caption changes to "Game on."

Greg says WELL, I'M NOT--LET'S BE
CLEAR, STEVE.
I'M NOT SAYING I THINK SHE
SHOULD STEP DOWN.
I THINK AMONGST THE THREE, SHE
WILL WAGE THE BEST CAMPAIGN AS A
PARTY LEADER.
MY VIEW IS IT'S JUST NOT GONNA
BE ENOUGH THIS TIME AROUND.
LIKE IT WASN'T ENOUGH FOR--FOR
BOB RAE IN '95, LIKE IT WASN'T
ENOUGH FOR STEPHEN HARPER A
YEAR-AND-A-HALF AGO.
SOMETIMES IT'S JUST NOT ENOUGH.
AND MY SENSE IS THAT
ONTARIANS--AND IF YOU GO OUTSIDE
OF THE BEAUTIFUL CITY OF
TORONTO, MY GOD, THE ANGER IS
JUST PALPABLE CALLING FOR, YOU
KNOW, AN END TO THIS GOVERNMENT.
IT'S--AS A LIBERAL, IT'S VERY
SCARY.
AND SO I--SHE'LL RUN THE BEST
CAMPAIGN.
I DON'T THINK SHE'S GONNA STEP
DOWN.
I THINK SHE WANTS TO TAKE ON THE
FIGHT.
SHE'LL BE BETTER THAN PATRICK
BROWN.
SHE'LL BE MUCH BETTER THAN
ANDREA HORWATH.
BUT WHAT IS THE RESULT GOING TO BE?
AND IF YOU CONTEMPLATE THAT
RESULT, THAT MAKES YOU POSE THE
QUESTION TO YOURSELF IN SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT TERMS.
THE ISSUE IS: "IF I STEP DOWN
AND SOMEONE ELSE STEPS IN,
DOES THAT PERSON HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF IMPROVING THE
OVERALL PROSPECTS OF
THE LIBERAL PARTY?"
AND THAT'S A QUESTION THAT NO
ONE CAN ANSWER.

Steve says WELL, I-- TELL ME.

Greg says TIM, MENTIONED BRIAN MULRONEY.
BRIAN MULRONEY STEPPED DOWN AND
KIM CAMPBELL STEPPED IN.
SHE WAS 52 PERCENT IN THE POLLS WHEN
THAT CAMPAIGN BEGAN.
AND SHE ENDED UP WITH TWO SEATS.
SO, IT'S UNPREDICTABLE.

Steve says IN OUR LAST MINUTE THEN, TIM,
LET ME PUT THAT TO YOU.
I KNOW YOU HAVE SAID THAT--YOU
GAVE THE EXAMPLE, MULRONEY
LEAVES, CAMPBELL COMES IN, IT'S
A DISASTER.

Tim says OR HARRIS LEAVES.

Steve says HARRIS LEAVES AS WELL.
ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU COULD
GIVE THE EXAMPLE OF DALTON
MCGUINTY LEAVES, KATHLEEN WYNNE
COMES IN, SAVES THE SILVERWARE.
WHICH--I KNOW.

Tim says THANK GOD WE HAD KATHLEEN WYNNE.

[PANEL LAUGHING]

Steve says NOT BAD.
NOT BAD.
BUT HOW DO YOU NOW--HOW DO YOU
KNOW THIS ISN'T ONE OF THOSE
MOMENTS WHERE A NEW COAT OF
PAINT IS ACTUALLY WHAT THE PARTY
NEEDS?

Tim says WELL, BECAUSE I THINK, YOU KNOW,
A--I CAN'T REMEMBER WHO SAID
IT--BUT, I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THERE
ARE AMBITIOUS PEOPLE IN CAUCUS,
AND THAT IS AWESOME.
LIKE, WE LOVE HAVING AMBITIOUS
PEOPLE IN CAUCUS.
IT'S A GREAT THING.
WE HAVE SOME PEOPLE WHO I THINK
COULD BE VERY GOOD LEADERS AT
SOME FUTURE POINT.
AND WE WANT THEM TO WANT THAT
JOB BECAUSE THAT ACTUALLY MAKES
THEM BETTER, MORE RESPONSIVE,
WORK HARDER.
ALL OF THOSE THINGS ARE GOOD.
SO, I THINK--YOU KNOW, SO, I
LOOK OUT AND SEE, YOU KNOW, A
LOT OF REALLY GOOD PEOPLE.
AND WE THINK WE'RE GONNA RECRUIT
SOME GOOD PEOPLE TOO AND--'CAUSE
THERE'S 15 ADDITIONAL SEATS THAT
ARE BEING ADDED WITH--YOU KNOW,
ON THE LAST ELECTION RESULTS,
WE'D WIN 11 OUT OF THOSE 15.
SO, YOU KNOW, NOW THAT BEING
SAID, WE'VE GOT SOME GROWTH TO
DO FROM THE CURRENT NUMBERS.
BUT SO I THINK, YOU KNOW--SO,
YOU KNOW, AT THE END, I LOOK AT
THIS AND I--MY VIEW DOESN'T
CHANGE, RIGHT?
AND I--'CAUSE I SAID I CAME INTO
THIS PROCESS, YOU KNOW,
FROM--FROM DALTON'S RESIGNATION
SUPPORTING SANDRA PUPATELLO AND
KATHLEEN.
SO, I'M KIND OF A--YES, I HAVE
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERT, BUT
NONETHELESS, YOU KNOW, I LOOK AT
ACROSS THAT CAUCUS, AND I THINK
I HAVE THE SAME JUDGMENT MOST
LIBERALS AND MOST LIBERALS I
TALK TO HAVE WHICH IS SHE IS
GOING TO BE OUR BEST CAMPAIGNER
IN THE GOOD OF THE PARTY.
AND FRANKLY, THE GOOD OF THE
PROVINCE IS FOCUSED ON GETTING
HER RE-ELECTED.
NOW, THE VOTERS MAY MAKE A
DIFFERENT CHOICE, AND THAT IS
ABSOLUTELY THEIR RIGHT AND
ENTITLEMENT.
BUT WE THINK WITH HER IN CHARGE
WE'RE GONNA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE.

Steve says YOU GOT THE LAST WORD, MR.
MURPHY.
AND THE DRAMA CONTINUES.

[PANEL CHUCKLES]

The caption changes to "Producer: Steve Paikin, @spaikin."

Steve says I THANK EVERYBODY FOR COMING ON
TO TVO TONIGHT AND HAVING THIS
DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS NON-STORY
ACCORDING TO MR. MURPHY.

[PANEL LAUGHING]

The caption changes to "Producer: Mark Brosens, @MarkBrosens."

Tim says AS SOON AS WE HAVE THE
PATRICK BROWN ONE, I'LL BE HERE
FOR THAT ONE.

Steve says OK, WE'LL HAVE YOU BACK FOR THAT TOO.
THANKS, EVERYBODY.

Tim says THANKS.

Michael says THANK YOU.

Watch: Kathleen Wynne's Political Future