Transcript: Time to Brexit | May 31, 2016

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, checkered white shirt, and purple tie.

A caption on screen reads "Time to brexit."

Steve says BRITISH PRIME MINISTER
DAVID CAMERON'S CONSERVATIVE
PARTY WON HIS COUNTRY'S 2015
ELECTION, IN PART, ON A PROMISE
TO RENEGOTIATE THE U.K.'s
RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE AND
HOLD A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER TO
REMAIN A PART OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION.
NOW, VOTERS ARE PREPARING TO
WEIGH IN THIS JUNE ON THE
SO-CALLED "BREXIT," AND THE
POLLS ARE VERY CLOSE.
TIM MONTGOMERIE IS A COLUMNIST
FOR THE TIMES OF LONDON AND A
CONSERVATIVE VOICE WITH A VERY
DIFFERENT VIEW THAN THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY.

Tim is in his late forties, with very short gray hair and a stubble. He's wearing a black suit and shirt.

Steve continues HE JOINS US NOW FOR MORE.
WELCOME TO THE COLONIES.

Tim says THANK YOU SO MUCH.

Steve says NICE TO HAVE YOU
OVER HERE.
ALL RIGHT.
LET'S GET IT ON THE TABLE.
WHY SHOULD BRITAIN LEAVE THE E.U.?

The caption changes to "Tim Montgomerie. The Times of London."
Then, it changes again to "Say cheerio to the continent."

Tim says I THINK
WHAT BRITAIN WOULD LIKE IS WHAT
CANADA HAS OR AUSTRALIA HAS,
WHAT NEW ZEALAND HAS, WHAT MOST
INDEPENDENT COUNTRIES AROUND THE
WORLD HAVE, IS THAT WHEN THE
AVERAGE CANADIAN GOES TO THE
VOTING BOOTH, THEY CAN VOTE FOR
HIGH IMMIGRATION OR LESS
IMMIGRATION.
THEY CAN VOTE TO SUBSIDIZE THEIR
STEEL INDUSTRY OR NOT GIVE ANY
TAX FARE HELP TO THE STEEL
INDUSTRY.
THEY KNOW THAT THE LAWS MADE IN
CANADA ARE DECIDED BY CANADA AND
NO ONE CAN OVERRULE THEM.
AT THE MOMENT, BRITISH DEMOCRACY
IS A SHADOW OF THE DEMOCRACY IN
MANY OTHER COUNTRIES.
WE ARE NOT A SELF-GOVERNING
NATION.

Steve says YOU FEEL YOU'VE
GIVEN UP TOO MUCH OF YOUR
SOVEREIGNTY TO BRUSSELS?

Tim says FAR TOO
MUCH SOVEREIGNTY.
SO MANY OF OUR LAWS ARE NOW MADE
IN A PLACE WHICH WE CANNOT
CONTROL, AND I THINK THE ESSENCE
OF A VIBRANT DEMOCRACY IS THAT
YOU CAN GET THE RASCALS OUT AND
CHANGE THE POLICIES WHEN YOU'RE
UNHAPPY, AS YOU DID SO
DECISIVELY WHEN STEPHEN HARPER
WAS REJECTED LAST YEAR.
WE CAN CHANGE THE PEOPLE THAT
STAFF OUR GOVERNMENT AT THE
MOMENT, BUT ON A WHOLE RANGE OF
TAX AND IMMIGRATION AND RIGHTS
AND OTHER ISSUES, POLITICIANS
AREN'T IN CHARGE AND THAT MAKES
US LESS THAN A FULL DEMOCRACY.

Steve says THE THEORY, THOUGH,
IS THAT IF WE GIVE UP A LITTLE
BIT OF SOVEREIGNTY, THERE'S
PAYBACK FOR THAT.
BEING PART OF A BIGGER CLUB GETS
YOU MORE.
YOU DON'T BUY THAT?

Tim says LOOK, I
WOULD... I'M PASSIONATE ABOUT
WANTING MY COUNTRY TO LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION, BUT THE EUROPEAN
UNION DOES DO SOME GOOD THINGS,
NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS ON
ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION.
BUT OVERALL YOU LOOK AT THE
CONTINENT AT THE MOMENT AND YOU
LOOK AT THE MASS YOUTH
UNEMPLOYMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH OF
EUROPE.
50 percent RATES OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN
PLACES LIKE PORTUGAL, SPAIN,
ITALY, AND GREECE, MOST OF ALL.
WHAT'S BEING DONE TO GREECE AT
THE MOMENT BY MONETARY AUSTERITY
POLICY I THINK AMOUNTS TO AN
ALMOST KIND OF POLITICAL
VIVISECTION.
TO CONFRONT VLADIMIR PUTIN'S
DESTABILIZATION OF UKRAINE.
YOU LOOK AT EXTREME GOVERNMENTS
IN HUNGARY, GOVERNMENTS IN
HUNGARY AND POLAND.
YOU LOOK AT SPAIN AND GREECE'S
FAILURE TO HAVE A STABLE
GOVERNMENT.
THIS IS A CONTINENT IN CRISIS.
AND THE LONGER WE ARE CHAINED TO
A CONTINENT THAT IS LOSING ITS
SHARE OF WORLD TRADE TWICE AS
FAST AS AMERICA'S, I THINK WE
ARE NOT GETTING A GOOD DEAL.

Steve says YOU CALL IT A
CONTINENT IN CRISIS.
BUT EVERYTHING IS RELATIVE.
THIS IS A CONTINENT WHERE FRANCE
AND GERMANY HAVE NOT GONE TO WAR
AGAINST EACH OTHER IN A VERY
LONG TIME.

Tim says YEAH.

Steve says I MEAN, THERE'S
CRISIS AND THEN THERE'S CRISIS.
ONE COULD ARGUE THAT IT'S MORE
PROBLEMATIC FOR THE U.K. TO BE
SORT OF HITCHED TO EUROPE IN
SOME RESPECTS, ECONOMICALLY, OF
COURSE, WHILE BEING OUTSIDE THE
EUROPEAN UNION.
YOU DON'T SEE THAT AS A PROBLEM?

Tim says I DON'T
WANT US TO NOT BE GOOD
NEIGHBOURS OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION, I WANT US TO BE GOOD
NEIGHBOURS RATHER THAN UNHAPPY
TENANTS.
I'D LIKE US TO STILL BE A PART
OF A FREE TRADE RELATIONSHIP
WITH EUROPE.
I WANT US TO BE ACTIVE MEMBERS
OF NATO.
I WANT THE SAME BILATERAL
COOPERATION THAT HAPPENS BETWEEN
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES TO
CONTINUE.

Steve says THAT'S NOT BEING A
TENANT, THAT'S BEING A CO-OWNER,
ISN'T IT?

Tim says IT'S BEING
A PARTNER, BUT WHEN I THINK
BARACK OBAMA WON THE NOBEL PEACE
PRIZE MONTHS AFTER BECOMING
PRESIDENT, BEFORE HE HAD REALLY
EVEN DONE ANYTHING, THE EUROPEAN
UNION WON THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
I THINK ONE OR TWO YEARS BEFORE.
THAT WAS THE WRONG AWARD.
THE THING THAT KEPT PEACE IN THE
EUROPEAN... ON THE EUROPEAN
CONTINENT, WHICH IS INCREDIBLY
IMPORTANT GIVEN EUROPE'S
HISTORY, IS NATO.
IT WAS THE COMMITMENT OF
AMERICAN, CANADIAN, AND OTHER
TROOPS TO THE DEFENCE AND
STABILIZATION OF EUROPE.
THAT'S WHAT MADE EUROPE STABLE.
IT WAS FREE TRADE BETWEEN
COUNTRIES THAT MADE THEM
ECONOMICALLY INTEGRATED WITH
EACH OTHER.
EITHER YOU COULD BUY SOMETHING
FROM ANOTHER NATION THAN TO
STEAL IT BY WAR.
EUROPE HAS CEASED TO JUST BE A
FREE TRADE AREA.
IT HAS AMBITIONS TO BECOME A
NATION, AND BRITAIN DOESN'T WANT
TO BE PART OF THAT.
WE'RE QUITE HAPPY TO BE OUR OWN
INDEPENDENT NATION.

Steve says YOU MUST KNOW HUGO DIXON.
HUGO WRITES IN THE INDEPENDENT
THE FOLLOWING...

A quote appears on screen, under the title "Go big or go home." The quote reads "At the moment, when we negotiate with America, China or Japan, we are doing so as part of the world's largest trade bloc, which accounts for nearly 20 percent of world GDP. Washington, Beijing and Tokyo have to take Brussels seriously as a trade partner. If we were on our own, the balance of power would be quite different.
The U.S. economy is seven times as big as ours, the Chinese is five times as big, and Japan's twice our size.
We'd typically have to play by their rules –whereas, at the moment, we influence the E.U.'s product regulations, which then have a chance of becoming global standards."
Quoted from Hugo Dixon, The Independent. March 24, 2014.

Steve says YOU DON'T AGREE WITH HIM?

The caption changes to "The national interest."

Tim says THERE IS
SOME TRUTH TO WHAT HE SAYS, BUT
IT'S ALSO THE CASE THAT THERE
ARE 26 MEMBER STATES IN THE
EUROPEAN UNION.
SO WHEN THE EUROPEAN UNION SITS
DOWN WITH THOSE TRADING BLOCS
THAT HE MENTIONS, WE KIND OF
HAVE 1-26th OF THE VOICE.

Steve says BUT YOU'RE AT THE
TABLE, AT LEAST?

Tim says WE'RE NOT.
THE EUROPEAN UNION IS AT THE
TABLE.
PERHAPS A PORTUGUESE
COMMISSIONER OR A FRENCH
COMMISSIONER.
ARE THEY REALLY HAVE UPPER MOST
IN THEIR MIND THE WELSH STEEL
INDUSTRY OR THE CITY OF LONDON'S
FINANCIAL DISTRICT?
WHEREAS, YES, WE'D BE BRITAIN
RATHER THAN THIS LARGER EUROPEAN
UNION AND WE SAT AT THE TABLE IN
THOSE TRADE TALKS, BUT OUR FOCUS
WOULD BE ENTIRELY ON BRITISH
INTERESTS.
THE EUROPEAN UNION IS INCREDIBLY
SLOW AT NEGOTIATING FREE TRADE
AGREEMENTS BECAUSE YOU ONLY CAN
MOVE AS FAST AS THE SLOWEST
VEHICLE IN THE CONVOY.
WE COULD MOVE MUCH MORE QUICKLY
IN BRITAIN'S RELATIONSHIP WITH
AMERICA OR CANADA BECAUSE WE
HAVE THAT DEMOCRATIC
FLEXIBILITY.
SO, YES, WE MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY
LESS NEGOTIATING WEIGHT IF WE
WERE ON OUR OWN, BUT WE WOULD BE
MORE NIMBLE AND MORE FOCUSED ON
OUR OWN INTERESTS.

Steve says HERE IS SOME MORE
ADVICE FOR YOU WHETHER YOU WANT
IT OR NOT.

Tim says I FEEL I'M
GOING TO GET IT.

Steve says THIS IS ADVICE TO
THE BRITISH PEOPLE IN AN ARTICLE
IN THE NEW YORK TIMES...

A quote appears on screen, under the title "Now more than ever?" The quote reads "Do you really want to look on now, a spectator like Switzerland, as Europe retreats into illiberalism and protectionism, and its eastern fringes drift into the orbit of a neo-imperial Russia? You can't isolate yourself from these; you can only worsen them by refusing to do your part...
We need British voices –insistent, contrary and maddening- to disturb decades of self-satisfied dust that has settled over Brussels. We don't just need a union that demands reform from its member states. We also need member states that demand –and secure- reform from the union. Don't leave the job half-finished. Don't leave us Europeans alone with this European Union."
Quoted from Jochen Bittner, The New York Times, March 16, 2016.

Steve says HOW ABOUT THAT?

The caption changes to "The greater good?"

Tim says WELL, LOOK.
THERE ARE A FEW MORE GRAY HAIRS
ON MY HEAD THAT I WOULD LIKE.
I'VE PROBABLY BEEN WATCHING
EUROPEAN POLITICS FOR A GOOD 20,
25 YEARS THROUGH ADULT EYES,
WE'VE BEEN MEMBERS OF THIS CLUB
FOR 40 YEARS.
I CAN'T REMEMBER A TIME WHEN
PEOPLE SAID, EUROPE IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE.
BRITAIN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE
INFLUENCE.
ACTUALLY WE HAVE NEVER HAD
DECISIVE INFLUENCE.
WE HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO STOP
THE KIND OF PROJECT LIKE THE
EURO PROJECT THAT HAS CAUSED SO
MUCH SOCIAL MISERY.

Steve says YOU DIDN'T BUT
YOU'RE NOT PART OF IT.

Tim says WE'RE NOT
PART OF IT.
BUT THE QUOTE YOU JUST GAVE ME
WAS A CALL FOR BRITAIN TO HELP
EUROPE SUCCEED.

Steve says SURE.

Tim says BUT IF YOU
ARE CONSTANTLY IGNORED, YOU'RE
TWICE AS LIKELY TO BE OUTVOTED
IN EUROPEAN COUNCIL THAN ANY
OTHER NATION.
AFTER A WHILE YOU GET... WE'RE
PART OF THIS CLUB BUT THE CLUB
DOESN'T REALLY RESPECT US AND
TAKE US SERIOUSLY.
I THINK EUROPE NEEDS A SHOCK TO
THE SYSTEM.
IT'S HAD A NUMBER OVER THE
YEARS, INCLUDING THE GREEK AND
EURO CRISIS.
IT'S GOT ANOTHER ONE WITH THE
CHALLENGE OF THE REFUGEE INFLOW
FROM SYRIA, AFGHANISTAN, AND
OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD.
BUT IT'S VERY SLOW, VERY
DYSFUNCTIONAL TO REFORM.
IT'S VERY HARD FOR 26-MEMBER
GOVERNMENTS ALL AT DIFFERENT
ELECTORAL CYCLES WITH DIFFERENT
POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES TO AGREE ON
ANYTHING.
I THINK NOT ONLY IF BRITAIN
CHOOSES TO LEAVE WILL EUROPE
HAVE TO RENEGOTIATE ITS
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE FIFTH
LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD...
IT WOULD BE A BIG MOMENT... IT
WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
EUROPE TO RE-THINK ITS
STRUCTURES MUCH MORE GENERALLY
AND PRODUCE A EUROPE THAT IS
MORE ABLE TO ADDRESS THE
PROBLEMS THAT THE GERMAN
COLUMNIST YOU QUOTE IS RIGHTLY
INTERESTED IN.

Steve says LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THAT.
DO YOU AGREE THE E.U. IS AN
IMPORTANT INSTITUTION, AS HE
PUTS IT, STANDING UP AGAINST
ILLIBERAL FORCES IN EUROPE?

Tim says YES.
BUT IF YOU LOOK AT... ANGELA
MERKEL I HAVE HUGE RESPECT FOR.
SHE IS ONE OF THE GIANTS ON THE
WORLD STAGE.
I'M SURE YOUR VIEWERS ARE AWARE
OF IT.
BUT SHE IS DOING A DEAL WITH THE
DEVIL AT THE MOMENT IN TURKEY.
SO DETERMINED THAT SHE IS TO CUT
THE INFLOW OF REFUGEES FROM THAT
PART OF THE WORLD THAT'S
DESTABILIZING GERMANY AND HER
GOVERNMENT.
SHE IS WILLING TO INITIATE A
PROSECUTION AGAINST A GERMAN
COMEDIAN WHO HAS CRITICIZED THE
TURKISH PRESIDENT.
THIS IS NOT THE EUROPEAN UNION
OF DEMOCRACY, TOLERANCE, AND
LIBERALISM THAT I KNOW IN HER
HEART ANGELA MERKEL BELIEVES IN.
IT'S A EUROPE THAT IS MORE AND
MORE COMPROMISED, LESS AND LESS
WILLING TO BE THAT GREAT
INFLUENCE THAT IT SHOULD BE IN
THE WORLD.

Steve says SO LET'S PURSUE THIS THEN.
I DON'T WANT TO COMPARE IT
BECAUSE IT'S NOT THE SAME.
BUT WE HAVE SOME EXPERIENCE WITH
THE NOTION OF DIVORCE IN THIS
COUNTRY.
THERE HAVE BEEN TWO REFERENDUMS
IN WHICH Québec GOT TO VOTE ON
WHETHER IT WANTED TO STAY OR GO.
AND ONE OF THE DEBATES WE'VE HAD
HERE IS, IF THEY VOTE TO LEAVE,
HOW WILL WE ACTUALLY CONDUCT
THIS DIVORCE?
BECAUSE THE TENTACLES
INTERTWINING Québec AND THE REST
OF CANADA ARE PROFOUND AND HAVE
BEEN TOGETHER FOR TECHNICALLY
150 YEARS AS CANADA AND EVEN
BEYOND BEFORE THAT.
SO HOW WOULD YOU ACTUALLY DO
THIS DIVORCE IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN?

Tim says WELL, IT'S
UNPRECEDENTED, SO NO ONE QUITE
KNOWS.
THE GOVERNMENT, VERY
DELIBERATELY, THE BRITISH
GOVERNMENT, HAS NOT MADE
CONTINGENCY PLANS.

The caption changes to "Connect with us: TVO.org, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter; @theagenda"

Steve says THAT YOU KNOW OF.

Tim says THAT WE KNOW OF.
I THINK THE BANK OF ENGLAND, FOR
EXAMPLE, HAS SOME CONTINGENCY
PLANS TO SUIT THE FINANCIAL
MARKETS, BUT THERE IS NO GREAT
NEGOTIATING STRATEGY BECAUSE
DAVID CAMERON, GEORGE OSBORNE,
PRIME MINISTER AND CHANCELLOR,
ARE OPPOSED TO IT.
I THINK THAT'S DEEPLY
IRRESPONSIBLE THAT THEY HAVEN'T
PREPARED.
BY PRESENTING BREXIT AS MORE OF
A LEAP INTO THE UNKNOWN, THEY
HOPE TO HAVE THE BRITISH PEOPLE
NOT TAKING THE CAUSE.
I THINK IN THE EARLY STAGES IF
BRITAIN WAS TO LEAVE, THE
RANCOR, THE HOSTILITY, WOULD BE
ENORMOUS.
BRITAIN WILL NOT BE A GOOD DEAL.
THERE WILL BE A SENSE IF WE GIVE
BRITAIN A GOOD DEAL, IT WILL
ENCOURAGE OTHER COUNTRIES IN
EUROPE TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATH.
BUT I THINK AFTER A WHILE,
MERCEDES THAT SELLS HUGE NUMBERS
OF CARS INTO BRITAIN, THE
SPANISH HOTEL INDUSTRY THAT
DEPENDS ON MANY BRITISH VISITORS
IN THE SUMMER, THE FRENCH WINE
INDUSTRY, THE ITALIAN FASHION
INDUSTRY, WILL BE KNOCKING AT
THE DOORS OF THEIR GOVERNMENT
AND SAYING THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY
IS NOT IN GOOD SHAPE, WE CANNOT
CUT OFF OUR NOSE TO SPITE OUR
FACE AND PUSH BRITAIN INTO A BAD
POSITION.
I HOPE BRITAIN WILL BE GENEROUS
AND WARM.
YOU KNOW, WE ARE NOT AGAINST
EUROPEANS OR THE EUROPEAN
NATIONS.
ALL WE WANT IS TO BETTER GOVERN
OURSELVES.
IT IS THAT LINE I'VE ALREADY
SHARED WITH YOU IS THE BEST WAY
OF DESCRIBING IT.
WE WANT TO BE HAPPY, FRIENDLY,
WARM NEIGHBOURS, COMMITTED TO
EUROPE'S PROSPERITY.
WE JUST DON'T WANT TO BE RULED
BY BRUSSELS ANYMORE.

Steve says IS THERE A PART OF
YOU, THOUGH, THAT WOULD BE
SOMEWHAT SAD... I MEAN, THE
SENSE OF THE WORLD IS THAT WE'RE
CONSTANTLY TRYING TO GET
TOGETHER ON THINGS, NOT SPLIT UP.
IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A
SPLIT-UP TO BE OKAY.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA SPLIT UP AND IT'S
OKAY.
BUT BRITAIN'S DIFFERENT.
NOT SAD BUT SOMETHING MIGHT BE
LOST IN THIS DIVORCE?

Tim says SOMETHING
MIGHT BE LOST.
BUT WHEN WE JOINED THE EUROPEAN
ECONOMIC COMMUNITY AS IT WAS IN
THE 1970s, WE CUT OURSELVES
OFF IN SIGNIFICANT WAYS THAT OUR
OLD FRIENDS LIKE YOURSELVES,
LIKE AUSTRALIA, LIKE NEW
ZEALAND, LIKE INDIA.
AT THE MOMENT, NATIONS THAT WE
HAVE GREATER HISTORICAL TIES
WITH AS CITIZENS OF THOSE
COUNTRIES, IT'S HARDER FOR THEM
TO GET INTO BRITAIN TO LIVE,
WORK, AND VISIT, THAN COUNTRIES
LIKE ROMANIA AND BULGARIA.
FOR ALL OF THEIR MERITS AS
COUNTRIES AND ALL OF THE TRIALS
THAT THEY'VE BEEN THROUGH AS
PART OF THE SOVIET BLOC, THEY
DON'T HAVE THE SAME AFFINITY
WITH US AS THOSE MORE
TRADITIONAL COMMONWEALTH AND
OTHER ALLIES HAVE.
IF THERE IS A DIVISION, TO BE
HONEST, SOME PEOPLE WANT TO
LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION BECAUSE
THEY WANT TO PULL THE DRAWBRIDGE
UP, THEY DON'T WANT IMMIGRATION,
THEY DO WANT THE WORLD TO GO
AWAY, IN A WORLD WHERE WE HAVE
THE TRUMP PHENOMENON, THERE'S
PLENTY OF THAT.
IT'S NOT MY VISION.
I DON'T THINK IT'S THE VISION OF
THE MAJORITY OF BRITISH PEOPLE.
I THINK WE WANT TO BE AN OPEN
TRADING, GENEROUS NATION TO THE
WORLD, BUT WE WANT TO BE OPEN TO
NEW RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE WHOLE
OF THE WORLD, NOT LOST IN
INCREASINGLY INWARD-LOOKING
DYSFUNCTIONAL EUROPEAN PROJECTS.
THAT BECAUSE OF ITS INTERNAL
PROBLEMS IS SO PREOCCUPIED WITH
ITSELF THAT IT ISN'T THE BEACON
TO THE WORLD THAT IT SHOULD BE.

Steve says YOU USED TO BE, I
GATHER, A MEMBER OF THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY.

Tim says YES, UNTIL
QUITE RECENTLY.

Steve says YOU WERE, I THINK,
IF I'M RIGHT, A FORMER CHIEF OF
STAFF TO A FORMER LEADER OF THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY, IAIN DUNCAN
SMITH.
YOU'RE NO LONGER A MEMBER OF THE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY NOW?

Tim says CORRECT.

Steve says SO YOU'VE HAD THAT
DIVORCE OVER BREXIT.

The caption changes to "A new right."

Tim says OVER MORE
THAN THAT.
BREXIT WAS THE FINAL STRAW.
I THINK THE PRIME MINISTER, YOU
KNOW, A FAMOUS SPEECH IN BRITAIN
CALLED THE BLOOMBERG SPEECH SAID
THAT IN HIS NEGOTIATIONS WITH
THE EUROPEAN LEADERS, HE WANTED
TO REFORM EUROPE, HE WANTED TO
CHANGE, NOT JUST BRITAIN'S
RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE BUT
ADDRESS SOME OF THE PROBLEMS
WE'VE ALREADY BEEN DISCUSSING.
AND I THINK BY PRETTY COMMON
CONSENT, EVEN BY PEOPLE WHO
WOULD SUPPORT BRITAIN'S
CONTINUED MEMBERSHIP IN THE
EUROPEAN UNION, THAT NEGOTIATION
FAILED.
IT DELIVERED VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
BRITAIN, LONDON AND BRUSSELS.
IT ACTUALLY DIDN'T CHANGE EUROPE
AT ALL.
BUT HE PRESENTED THE DEAL AS
THOUGH SOMETHING FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGED.
HE PROMISED TO CUT IMMIGRATION.
IMMIGRATION IS RISING.
PROMISED TO ELIMINATE THE
DEFICIT.
MOST OF THE DEFICIT IS STILL
THERE.
HE PROMISED THAT HE WOULD BE A
DIFFERENT KIND OF COMPASSIONATE
CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT.
ACTUALLY THE LATEST CUTS ARE
FALLING LARGELY ON THE WORKING
POOR WHILE BETTER-OFF PENSIONERS
ARE ACTUALLY GETTING BETTER
BENEFITS.
SO THERE'S AN ACCUMULATION OF
THINGS, TO BE HONEST...

Steve says ARE YOU A BORIS
JOHNSON CONSERVATIVE?

Tim says WELL,
BORIS IS A LARGER-THAN-LIFE,
EXTRAORDINARY POLITICIAN, AND I
LIKE HIS ONE-NATION POLITICS,
HIS SENSE THAT IF YOU ARE A
PATRIOT, YOU DON'T JUST LOVE A
COUNTRY'S INSTITUTIONS, ITS
FLAG, ITS HISTORY; ONE NATION
CONSERVATISM, PATRIOTIC
CONSERVATISM, YOU LOVE ITS
PEOPLE AS WELL, ALL OF THE
PEOPLE.
AND WHEN THEY ARE SUFFERING,
WHEN SOME OF THEM ARE HURTING,
THAT'S A TEST OF DECENT
POLITICS.
ARE YOU IN POLITICS FOR THEM NOT
JUST PEOPLE WHO DON'T NEED VERY
MUCH HELP.
I THINK THAT'S HIS INSTINCT AND
I THINK HE HAS TO PROVE THAT
HE'S PRIME MINISTERIAL AS WELL
AS BEING ABLE TO ENTERTAIN, AS
WELL AS HAVING THIS VISION.

Steve says HE'S DEEPLY ENTERTAINING.

Tim says HE CERTAINLY IS.
HE WILL DO THE DAY-TO-DAY GRIND
OF GOVERNMENT WHICH DAVID
CAMERON IS VERY GOOD AT.
I THINK DAVID CAMERON'S DAYS ARE
NUMBERED AS PRIME MINISTER.

Steve says HE HAS SAID THAT.

Tim says HE SAID
SOMETIME DURING THIS PARLIAMENT
HE WILL RETIRE.
BUT FOR ANYONE WHO TAKES EVEN A
PASSING INTEREST IN, SAY, THE
BRITISH NEWSPAPERS AT THE
MOMENT, WE HAVE THE LEADING
PAPERS LIKE THE DAILY TELEGRAPH,
THE SUN, THE DAILY MAIL,
CENTRE-RIGHT NEWSPAPERS, ON A
DAILY BASIS LAUNCHING
EXTRAORDINARY ATTACKS ON DAVID
CAMERON, OF THE KIND THAT THEY
WOULD NORMALLY LAUNCH ON A
LEFT-WING LABOUR LEADER, BECAUSE
THIS ISSUE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
HAS DIVIDED THE CONSERVATIVE
PARTY FROM TOP TO BOTTOM.
I DON'T THINK HE'S GOING TO
SURVIVE FOR LONG.

Steve says HOW DO YOU THINK THE
BREXIT IS GOING TO GO, THE VOTE?

Tim says UNFORTUNATELY FROM MY
PERSPECTIVE, I THINK BRITAIN
WILL VOTE TO STAY IN.
I THINK THE NATURAL CONSERVATISM
OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE WILL KICK IN.

Steve says SMALL-C CONSERVATISM.

Tim says SMALL-C CONSERVATISM.
THE FEAR OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
WHEN ALREADY THE WORLD ECONOMY
IS NOT IN THE BEST SHAPE.
IF THEY TURN UP... IT'S
CERTAINLY VERY POSSIBLE WE WILL
VOTE TO LEAVE.
BUT UNLIKELY.
TWO TO ONE AGAINST, I THINK.

Steve says TWO TO ONE?

Tim says TWO TO ONE
IN TERMS OF LIKELIHOOD.
I THINK THE PERCENTAGE OF THE
VOTE WILL BE CLOSER.

The caption changes to "Producer: Mark Brosens, @MarkBrosens"

Steve says I SEE.
OKAY.
THANKS SO MUCH TIM MONTGOMERIE
FROM THE TIMES OF LONDON.

Tim says THANK YOU
FOR HAVING ME.

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