Transcript: Barry Smit: The Changing Wine World | Oct 26, 2015

Steve sits in the studio. He's slim, clean-shaven, in his fifties, with short curly brown hair. He's wearing a gray suit, white shirt, and striped lilac tie. Behind him, a wall screen reads “The Agenda, with Steve Paikin.”

Steve says ONTARIO IS BLESSED
WITH THREE BOUNTIFUL WINE
PRODUCING REGIONS, HOLDING OUR
OWN ON THE WORLD'S VITICULTURE
STAGE.
BUT WHAT THE SEASONS DELIVER IS
CHANGING _ AROUND THE WORLD.
AND THAT MEANS THE GRAPES WE
GROW COULD ALSO CHANGE.
JOINING US NOW FOR MORE ON WHAT
WILL BE GOING INTO ONTARIO WINE
BOTTLES:
BARRY SMIT, PROFESSOR EMERITUS
OF GEOGRAPHY AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF GUELPH.

Barry is in his late fifties, clean-shaven and balding. He’s wearing glasses, a black coat, and a blue shirt.

Steve continues AND AS WE WELCOME YOU BACK HERE
TO TVO, I THOUGHT WE'D JUST
START BY HAVING YOU FOLLOW UP ON
SOMETHING YOU MAY HAVE HEARD IN
THE LAST INTERVIEW, IN
PARTICULAR, THE FACT THAT IF OUR
CLIMATE WARMS, THAT WILL
NECESSARILY BE GOOD BECAUSE
WE'LL BE ABLE TO START GROWING
THINGS HERE THAT A COLD CLIMATE
WOULDN'T ALLOW FOR.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?

A caption appears on screen. It reads "Barry Smit. University of Guelph."
Then, it changes to “The changing wine world. Tvo.org”

Barry says IF CLIMATE
CHANGE WAS ONLY CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND IF EVERY YEAR WE
GOT AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, WHICH
WE OBVIOUSLY NEVER GET, YOU
EXPECT THERE WOULD BE
OPPORTUNITIES IN CANADA.
OF COURSE, THERE ARE LIMITS WITH
THE AMOUNT OF LAND FURTHER NORTH
AND WHAT HAVE YOU.
BUT THE REALITY IS THAT WE GET
VARIATIONS FROM YEAR TO YEAR,
PARTICULARLY IN MOISTURE, AND
YOUR PREVIOUS GUEST NOTED THE
IMPORTANCE OF MOISTURE, AND IF
WE LOOK AT WHAT'S ACTUALLY
HAPPENING IN AREAS THAT ARE
EXPERIENCING CLIMATE CHANGE
ALREADY, CALIFORNIA IS A CLASSIC
CASE, IT'S GOT MORE HEAT.
IT'S NOT GOOD FOR AGRICULTURE
THERE.
THEY'RE IN BIG TROUBLE.
A SERIES OF DROUGHTS.

Steve says NO MOISTURE.

Barry says THERE'S NO MOISTURE.
AUSTRALIA THE SAME.
THE PRAIRIES IS SIMILAR.
THE CONSTRAINT ON AGRICULTURE IN
THE PRAIRIES WILL BE MOISTURE,
AND THE IDEA OF, WELL, WE CAN
IRRIGATE.
THAT'S A FALSE ASSUMPTION
BECAUSE ALL OF THE WATER IS
CURRENTLY ALLOCATED.
THERE'S NO MORE WATER AVAILABLE.
THERE WILL BE LESS COMING FROM
THE ROCKIES, BECAUSE THE
GLACIERS, WHEN THEY MELT AWAY
FURTHER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE,
WILL BE GENERATING LESS WATER
FOR USE ON THE PRAIRIES.

Steve says DISABUSE OURSELVES
OF THE NOTION THAT WARMER
NECESSARILY MEANS BETTER.

Barry says EXACTLY.
AND SIMILARLY THE COMPARISON
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST.
THE PRESIDENT OF THE ONTARIO
CORN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION IN
ONTARIO WAS A CLIMATE SKEPTIC
FOR A LONG WHILE, AND HE
ACTUALLY READ THE THREE VOLUMES
OF THE I.P.C.C. REPORTS AND HE
GAVE A PUBLIC ADDRESS --

Steve says WE'RE TOUGH ON
ACRONYMS HERE.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON
CLIMATE CHANGE.

Barry says YES.
IT SUMMARIZES ALL OF THE SCIENCE
IN THE WORLD.
HE READ THEM.
IT MUST HAVE TAKEN HIM MONTHS.
ANYWAY, HE GAVE A PUBLIC ADDRESS
AND I WENT ALONG TO THIS, AND I
THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO SAY, OH,
IT'S ALL NONSENSE.
HE SAID IF YOU ARE A YOUNG
PERSON IN ONTARIO THINKING OF
GOING INTO FARMING, DON'T DO IT
UNLESS YOU CAN GUARANTEE YOUR
WATER SUPPLY FOR THE NEXT 50
YEARS.
EVEN IN ONTARIO, SOMEONE IN THE
BUSINESS, A FARMER, SAYS BE
CAREFUL ABOUT THE AVAILABILITY
OF MOISTURE.

Steve says OKAY.
WITH THAT, LET'S GO ON AND TALK
ABOUT WINE.
I'M GOING TO START THIS
INTERVIEW THE SAME WAY I STARTED
THE LAST ONE, WHICH IS WHAT ARE
SOME OF THE CONDITIONS THAT WINE
GRAPES NEED TO BE GROWN
BEAUTIFULLY?

Barry says WINE GRAPES
NEED SUNNY DAYS, WARM --

Steve says FUNNY EXPRESSION
GIVEN WHO THE NEW PRIME MINISTER
IS.
OKAY.

The caption changes to "Bring on the bubbly."

Barry says IT'S GOING TO
BE GOOD.
HOT, BUT NOT TOO HOT.
YOU NEED COOL NIGHTS BUT NOT TOO
COOL.
IN FACT, SOMETIMES THEY CALL IT
THE GOLDILOCKS.
YOU NEED A LITTLE BIT OF WATER
BUT NOT TOO MUCH WATER.
YOU NEED COLD WINTERS SO THERE'S
A DORMANT PERIOD FOR THE GRAPES
BUT NOT TOO COLD SO THAT IT
KILLS OFF THE VINES AND THE
ROOTSTOCK.
YOU NEED WELL-DRAINED SOILS AS
WELL.
BUT THE KEY CONSTRAINT ARE THE
CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AND WE CAN
THINK OF GRAPES LIKE A
MEDITERRANEAN TYPE CLIMATE, NOT
TOO HOT, THAT'S WHY YOU DON'T
FIND GRAPES IN THE TROPICS.
NOT TOO WET.
YOU DON'T FIND GRAPES IN
TEMPERATE REGIONS.

Steve says WE HIT THE SWEET
SPOT HERE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO, RIGHT?

Barry says WE HAVE SOME
PLACES IN ONTARIO WHICH SATISFY
THOSE CONDITIONS, YES.

Steve says HOW IS CLIMATE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL OF
THOSE THINGS YOU JUST LISTED?

Barry says WELL, IF YOU'RE
IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY QUITE
HOT AND YOU'RE GROWING THE WARM
ZONE GRAPES LIKE CABERNET, IF
YOU GO TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA, YOU'RE GROWING
RAISINS.
IT'S TOO HOT.
SO PEOPLE WHO ARE GROWING GRAPES
IN THE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY
QUITE WARM, THEY MAY HAVE
TROUBLE.
IF YOU'RE IN THE COOL PARTS, YOU
MAY BE ABLE TO SWITCH TO
DIFFERENT VARIETIES, MAYBE
SWITCH FROM RIESLING TO COOL
CLIMATE ONES TO THE CABERNET.
THAT'S AN INVESTMENT YOU'LL HAVE
TO MAKE.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT WILL
LIKELY GO OUT OF PRODUCTION AND
SOME AREAS THAT WILL COME INTO
PRODUCTION, NEW AREAS WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE, AND OF COURSE
THERE WILL BE THE CONSTRAINT OF
WATER AS WELL IN ANY OF THOSE
PLACES.

Steve says AS EACH SECTOR IN
THE AGRICULTURAL WORLD LOOKS AT
HOW CLIMATE CHANGE MAY AFFECT
WHAT IT DOES, WOULD YOU IMAGINE
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
THE WINE BUSINESS TO BE GREATER
OR LESSER THAN OTHER SECTORS?

Barry says AT FIRST BLUSH
WE MIGHT THINK IT WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL BECAUSE MOST WINE
GROWERS WOULD LIKE A BIT MORE
HEAT.
BUT I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE
AREAS THAT WILL BENEFIT AND BE
ABLE TO REALIZE OPPORTUNITIES
FROM THIS, BUT OTHER AREAS ARE
GOING TO BE IN TROUBLE.

Steve says DO YOU WANT TO
SPECULATE ON WHICH IS WHICH?

Barry says YOU DON'T HAVE
TO SPECULATE, IT'S ALREADY
HAPPENING.
IF YOU GO TO SOUTHERN NAPA,
THEY'RE ALREADY PULLING UP
GRAPES.
TOO HOT.
SOUTH AFRICA.
AUSTRALIA.

Steve says HOW ABOUT HERE, LIKE
PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY, FOR
EXAMPLE, NIAGARA-ON-THE-LAKE?

Barry says IN ONTARIO,
PROBABLY WE'LL HAVE A MODERATE
BENEFIT.
PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY WOULD
PROBABLY BENEFIT FROM A LITTLE
BIT MORE WARMTH.
ONTARIO, THE NORTH ERIE SHORE,
WOULD PROBABLY BENEFIT.
BUT YOU HAVE TO BE CAREFUL.
THERE ARE OTHER THINGS THAT COME
ALONG WITH CLIMATE CHANGE.
FOR EXAMPLE, ONE OF THE KEY
PRODUCTS IN ONTARIO IS ICE WINE.
ICE WINE IS THE WINE THAT'S
KNOWN INTERNATIONALLY FOR
CANADA, AND ONTARIO IS THE MAJOR
PRODUCER.
IT'S HUGE.

Steve says WE'RE THE BEST IN
THE WORLD AT IT.

Barry says BEST IN THE
WORLD.
ICE WINE IS 30 percent OF CANADIAN
EXPORT AND WINE.
NOW, IN ORDER TO HAVE ICE WINE,
YOU LEAVE THE GRAPES ON THE VINE
UNTIL WINTER, AND YOU HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE TEMPERATURE IS
8 degrees CELSIUS.
WHAT HAPPENS IS THE GRAPES
FREEZE AND IT CONCENTRATES THE
FLAVOUR.
NOW, WITH CLIMATE CHANGE, THE
CLIMATE AT WHICH YOU GET -8 degrees IS
BECOMING LATER AND LATER.
YOU USED TO BE ABLE TO HARVEST
THEM AROUND CHRISTMAS MAYBE.
NOW YOU'RE INTO EARLY JANUARY.
THE LONGER YOU LEAVE IT, THE
LESS MATERIAL YOU'RE ABLE TO
HARVEST, AND THE NUMBER OF DAYS
AT -8 degrees IS BECOMING FEWER AND
FEWER.

Steve says SO IS IT POSSIBLE IN
THE FUTURE WE DON'T GET TO -8 AT
ALL AND THIS WHOLE INDUSTRY IS
WIPED OUT?

Barry says IT'S ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE WINE
INDUSTRY WILL BE IN BIG TROUBLE
AND MAY HAVE TO SHIFT.
AND MOVING, CHANGING PRODUCTION
IN WINE IS A BIG INVESTMENT.
IT'S NOT LIKE AN ANNUAL CROP YOU
JUST PLANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
YOU HAVE TO PREPARED THE LAND,
THE GRAPES TAKE SEVERAL YEARS TO
GET ESTABLISHED.
YOU USUALLY EXPECT, ONCE YOU'VE
ESTABLISHED THE VINES, YOU'RE
GOING TO HAVE THEM FOR 50 OR 100
YEARS.

Steve says HOW ABOUT BRITISH
COLUMBIA, GREAT WINES OUT OF THE
OKANAGAN, WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS
THERE?

Barry says SIMILARLY, IN
THE SOUTHERN OKANAGAN, AROUND
OSOYOOS, IT'S HOT.
THEY PRODUCE A BIG FRUITY RES.
IF IT GETS HOTTER, THEY'LL BE IN
TROUBLE.
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS, THERE MIGHT BE BENEFITS,
YOU MIGHT HAVE TO SWAP
VARIETIES.
AGAIN, THEY HAVE WATER PROBLEMS.
THEY'RE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN
GETTING ENOUGH WATER FOR USE.
AND THEY HAVE FIRES TOO WHICH IS
AFFECTING THEIR PRODUCTION AND
THEIR MARKETING.

Steve says SURE.
LET ME READ SOMETHING OUT OF THE
GUARDIAN NEWSPAPER, THIS IS
ADMITTEDLY A COUPLE OF YEARS OLD
ALREADY, BUT IT STILL STANDS.
HERE WE GO...

A quote appears on screen, under the title “Renfrew’s finest Riesling?” The quote reads “Bid adieu to Bordeaux, but also, quite possibly, a hello to Chateau Yellowstone. Researchers predict a two-thirds fall in production in the world’s premier wine regions because of climate change. The study forecasts sharp declines in wine production from Bordeaux and Rhone regions in France, Tuscany in Italy and Napa Valley in California and Chile by 2050, as a warming climate makes it harder to grow grapes in traditional wine country.
But also anticipate a big push into areas once considered unsuitable. That could mean more grape varieties from northern Europe, including Britain, the US north-west and the hills of central China.”
Quoted from Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian, April 8, 2013.

Steve says DO YOU SIGN ON TO
THAT PROGNOSTICATION?

Barry says SURE.
THERE'S EVIDENCE OF THAT
HAPPENING ALREADY.
I ALREADY MENTIONED THEY'RE
PULLING UP GRAPES --

Steve says IN NAPA.

The caption changes to "Thirsty vines."

Barry says IN NAPA AND
OTHER PLACES.
IN CHILE, IT SO HAPPENS THAT ONE
OF THE MAJOR PRODUCERS THERE,
TORRES, HAS ALREADY PURCHASED
AND PLANTED VINES ON SLOPES
HIGHER UP THE MOUNTAIN, BECAUSE
IT'S COOLER, AND FURTHER SOUTH,
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO, THE COOLER
IT GETS, IN ANTICIPATION OF
THIS.
LAST WEEK THERE WAS THE OUTCOME
OF AN INTERNATIONAL CHAMPAGNE
COMPETITION.
YOU CAN'T CALL IT CHAMPAGNE
UNLESS IT'S GROWN IN CHAMPAGNE.

Steve says IN FRANCE.

Barry says BUT SPARKLING
CHARDONNAY FROM ALL OVER THE
WORLD, HAD A COMPETITION.
GUESS WHERE THE WINNER WAS FROM?

Steve says HAVEN'T A INCLUDE?

Barry says WASN'T FROM
FRANCE, ITALY, SPAIN, OR
CALIFORNIA.
FROM SUSSEX, ENGLAND.

Steve says NO KIDDING?
YOU'D NEVER HAVE GUESSED THAT.

Barry says YOU'D NEVER
HAVE GUESSED THAT AND ALL OF THE
PEOPLE THERE RECOGNIZE THIS IS
BECAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE IS
ALLOWING THAT TO HAPPEN.

Steve says CAN YOU IMAGINE A
DAY THEN, AND MAYBE YOU COULD
TELL ME HOW FAR IN THE FUTURE --
ARE WE 25, 50 YEARS AWAY FROM
THIS?
- WHERE, AND I THINK 25 TO 50
YEARS AGO, THERE WAS NO WINE
INDUSTRY IN PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY
TWO HOURS EAST OF THIS STUDIO.
IS IT POSSIBLE WE'RE GOING TO BE
SEEING A WINE INDUSTRY IN
SUDBURY OR NORTH BAY OR RENFREW
COUNTY OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT?

Barry says I WAS THINKING
ABOUT THIS ON THE WAY IN BECAUSE
IT'S AN OBVIOUS QUESTION TO ASK.
ONE OF THE REASONS THAT ONTARIO,
AND EVEN OKANAGAN, IS ABLE TO
HAVE ITS WINE PRODUCED
SUCCESSFULLY IS THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LARGE WATER BODIES.
SO IF WE'D GO FURTHER NORTH,
WE'D PROBABLY STILL WANT TO LOOK
FOR THE AREAS THAT HAVE
WELL-DRAINED SOIL, GOOD
SUNLIGHT, NOT A LOT OF RAIN, IF
YOU CAN HELP IT, BUT MORE HEAT.
I DON'T KNOW, MAYBE AROUND BRUCE
PENINSULA OR SOMEWHERE.
SO AFTER THIS INTERVIEW, PEOPLE
WILL BE BUYING LAND IN BRUCE
PENINSULA AND PLANTING GRAPES.

Steve says YOU HAVE BEAUTIFUL
OPEN SKIES AND SUNNY DAYS THERE.

Barry says THINGS COULD HAPPEN.

Steve says YOU NEVER KNOW.

The caption changes to "The expanding new world."

Barry says ONE OF THE
INTERESTING THINGS IN EUROPE
ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
AREAS WHERE IT'S GROWN, YOU
MENTIONED YOU CAN ONLY CALL IT
CHARDONNAY IF IT'S GROWN IN THAT
REGION.
BURGUNDY.
RED BURGUNDY IS THE WINE MADE
FROM PINOT NOIR, ONE OF THE MOST
FAMOUS WINES OF ALL TIME.
IT CAN ONLY BE CALLED BURGUNDY
IF IT'S GROWN IN THE PARTICULAR
REGION OF BURGUNDY, AND YET
PINOT NOIR IS GROWN THE WORLD
OVER.
WHAT'S HAPPENED WITH CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE DISTRICT OF
BURGUNDY IS IN THE SOUTHERN
PART, IT'S GETTING TOO HOT.
SO THE WINE IS NOT THAT GOOD.
IT'S A BIT TOO FRUITY AND NOT
BALANCED.
TO THE AREA NORTH OF THE
BURGUNDY OFFICIAL REGION,
THEY'RE ACTUALLY GROWING PINOT
NOIR AND MAKING SUPERB WINE, BUT
THEY CAN'T CALL IT BURGUNDY.
WE HAVE A PHYSICAL CHANGE IN THE
WAY YOU GROW GOOD PINOT NOIR,
BUT THE INSTITUTIONAL
ARRANGEMENT DOESN'T ALLOW THAT
TO SHIFT.
IN THE NEW WORLD, WE HAVE A LOT
MORE FLEXIBILITY ON WHAT WE CAN
CALL GRAPES.

Steve says ARE THEY GOING TO
HAVE TO CHANGE THE REGULATIONS
AROUND THAT?

Barry says I DON'T KNOW
HOW THEY'RE GOING TO HANDLE IT.
THEY PROTECT THOSE NAMES LIKE
YOU WOULDN'T BELIEVE.

Steve says I AM NOT A
NINOPHILE, SO YOU'LL HAVE TO
HELP ME WITH THE TERMINOLOGY
HERE.
TERROIRE REFERS TO WHAT?

Barry says THE DISTINCT
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SITE, WHAT
SORT OF TEMPERATURE, WINDS,
HUMIDITY, AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT,
AMOUNT OF SHADE.
IT REFERS TO THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE DAY AND THE
NIGHTTIME.
IT REFERS TO ASPECT.
IS IT NORTH FACING OR SOUTH
FACING?
BECAUSE THAT WILL AFFECT THE
GROWING CONDITIONS.
IT REFERS TO THE SOIL, THE
MINERALS, THE DRAINAGE
CHARACTERISTICS, ALL OF THOSE
THINGS TOGETHER CREATE DISTINCT
CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE WINE.
SO A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THIS
WOULD BE WHITE WINE.
GROWN IN FRANCE IT HAS THE
CHARACTERISTICS, TROPICAL FRUITS
AND GRASSINESS, BUT IT'S ELEGANT
AND DELICATE IN ITS STYLE.
VERY FRENCH.
IF YOU HAVE THE SAME GRAPE GROWN
FROM THE SAME ROOT STOCK IN NEW
ZEALAND, IT HAS THE SAME GENERAL
FLAVOUR, THAT IS TROPICAL FRUITS
AND GRASS, BUT IT'S ROBUST, IT'S
POWERFUL, IT'S LIKE THE RUGBY
TEAM.
IT'S IN YOUR FACE.
SO IT'S THE SAME GRAPE BUT HAS
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
CHARACTERISTICS BECAUSE OF THE
TERROIR.
IF YOU GO TO NIAGARA AND HAVE A
RIESLING GROWN ON THE BENCH,
THAT WILL TASTE DIFFERENT AND
HAVE DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTICS,
FROM THE SAME GRAPE GROWN ON THE
NIAGARA LAKESHORE.

Steve says SO ONTARIO HAS A
PARTICULAR TERROIR RECOGNIZED
AROUND THE WORLD?

Barry says NOT ONLY IN
ONTARIO BUT WITHIN ONTARIO.
PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY HAS
DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTICS THAN
NIAGARA AND THE LAKESHORE.
NOW, THEY'RE TWO SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT GRAPES TO MATCH THE
SITE, BUT EVEN WITHIN NIAGARA,
FROM ONE OF THE SOUTH
APPELLATIONS THAT EXIST IN
NIAGARA, YOU'LL GET DIFFERENT
FLAVOURS FROM THE GRAPES.
OF COURSE, THERE ARE ALSO
DIFFERENCES DUE TO THE
VITICULTURE MANAGEMENT AND WINE
MAKING TECHNIQUES, BUT CERTAINLY
THE LAND HAS AN EFFECT.

Steve says WHAT DO YOU THINK
GRAPE GROWING REGIONS, LIKE THE
ONES YOU'VE MENTIONED IN THE
PROVINCE OF ONTARIO, ARE GOING
TO NEED IN THE FUTURE IN ORDER
TO CONTINUE TO BE SUCCESSFUL?

The caption changes to "Sustainable growth."

Barry says ONE OF THE
THINGS ABOUT THE WINE INDUSTRY
IS THEY HAVE ACTUALLY BOUGHT
INTO THE CLIMATE CHANGE.
THEY ACCEPT IT.
INTERNATIONALLY, THEY'RE DOING
ALL SORTS OF THINGS.
I MENTIONED THEY'RE ALREADY
BUYING LAND AND PLANTING,
THEY'RE BUYING UP WATER RIGHTS,
SOME IN EUROPE ARE MAKING HUGE
UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS FOR
WATER, THEY'RE LOOKING AHEAD TO
WHERE THEY MIGHT PLANT NEW
CROPS, NEW VARIETIES.
AND IN ONTARIO, WE NEED TO DO
THAT AS WELL.
THEY'D NEED TO LOOK AT THE
PARTICULAR VARIETIES THAT I HAVE
IN THIS LOCATION, ARE THEY GOING
TO DO WELL UNDER THIS CHANGING
CLIMATE?
SHOULD I BE CHANGING THEM?
SHOULD I TRY AND EXPAND TO THIS
AREA OR THAT AREA?
IT MAKES SENSE TO LOOK AT THE
CONSTRAINTS THAT ARE GOING TO
COME TO BEAR ON YOU AND THE
OPPORTUNITIES THAT EXIST.

Steve says WE HAVE AN AWFUL LOT
OF FRESH WATER AROUND US HERE,
PARTICULARLY, YOU KNOW, LAKE
ONTARIO, OBVIOUSLY, BUT JUST GO
AN HOUR AND A HALF NORTH, LAKE
SIMCOE, FOR EXAMPLE.
WANT TO GO EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
YOU CAN TALK ABOUT JAMES BAY.
IS ANY OF THAT HELPFUL AS YOU
LOOK 25 OR 50 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD?

Barry says FOR GRAPE
GROWING, MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
NOT THE SAME CONSTRAINT AS IT IS
SAY IN OKANAGAN.
MOST OF THE GREAT GRAPE GROWING
REGIONS IN THE WORLD ARE ALMOST
DESERTS.
MEDITERRANEAN, CALIFORNIA -- A
LOT OF THESE PLACES ARE DESERTS
AND WATER IS REALLY AT A
PREMIUM.
THAT'S PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE
THE CRUCIAL CONSTRAINT IN
ONTARIO.
IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE OTHER
THINGS.
NOW, THERE ARE THINGS LIKE THE
TIMING OF THE CONDITIONS, THE
APPLE CROP IN ONTARIO IN 2012 IS
AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE.
WITH WARMER CLIMATE, WE'RE
GETTING SPRING COMING EARLIER,
AND IN 2012, WE GOT A VERY WARM
PERIOD EARLY ON.
THE APPLE TREES BLOSSOMED.
BUT THEN WE GOT A FROST.
NOT AN UNTIMELY FROST BUT A
FROST THAT CAME AT A REGULAR
TIME, BUT AFTER THE BLOSSOMS
WERE OUT, DEVASTATED THE ONTARIO
APPLE CROP.
SOMETHING LIKE 80 percent OF THE CROP
WAS LOST, MILLIONS OF DOLLARS,
SIMPLY BECAUSE THERE WAS A
CHANGE IN TIMING.
A LOT OF THINGS ABOUT CLIMATE
CHANGE ARE UNPREDICTABLE LIKE
THAT.

Steve says WE HAVE TO SATISFY
OUR VIEWING PUBLIC'S CURIOSITY
ABOUT WHERE YOU'RE FROM.
THEY'RE GOING TO ASSUME THAT
ACCENT IS AN AUSSIE ACCENT.

Barry says I GREW UP IN
NEW ZEALAND.
MY FATHER WAS BORN IN SOUTHERN
ALBERTA ON A FARM THERE.
DURING THE DROUGHTS OF THE
1930s, THEY DIDN'T HAVE CROP
INSURANCE AND SAFETY NETS.
THEY HAD TO LEAVE THE FARM, AND
MY DAD AS A YOUNGSTER ENDED UP
IN VANCOUVER AND WENT TO NEW
ZEALAND.
I GREW UP IN NEW ZEALAND AND
YEARS LATER I CAME BACK HERE.

The caption changes to "Produced by Mark Brosens, @MarkBrosens."

Steve says WELCOME BACK TO CANADA.

Barry says THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

Steve says GOOD STUFF.
BARRY SMIT, UNIVERSITY OF
GUELPH.
THANKS FOR THIS TONIGHT.

Barry says YOU'RE VERY
WELCOME.

Watch: Barry Smit: The Changing Wine World