What Ontario's updated COVID-19 modelling tells us

The province unveiled updated modelling Wednesday. Here's what it has to say about hospital capacity, public-health measures, and the new surge in cases
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Sep 30, 2020



Ontario released updated modelling of the spread of COVID-19 in the province, as medical experts warn of a rapid increase in cases. The province’s models anticipate that there could be as many as 1,000 new cases per day by the first half of October — substantially more than the earlier peak of new cases in April. (Ontario had 640 new cases on April 24, a record that was broken this week when the province reported 700 new cases on Monday.)

The presentation, made public Wednesday by the Ministry of Health, emphasizes that intensive-care capacity in the province has not been overwhelmed by new infections. The document states that, so long as there are fewer than 150 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds, the provincial hospital system will be able to continue functioning in its current state, with hospitals trying to work through the backlog of procedures. Above 150 cases, it will become difficult to support non-COVID-19 care, “and above 350 it becomes impossible.”

As of Tuesday morning there were 30 COVID-19 patients in intensive care provincewide.

Here's the province's full modelling update:

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