What Ontario's new COVID-19 modelling tells us

The province unveiled updated modelling today — and it offers cause for both optimism and concern
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Apr 20, 2020
Matthew Anderson, CEO of Ontario Health, at a news conference on Monday. (CP24) 



This article was updated at 12:47 p.m.

According to the province's modelling, released at noon Monday, "the wave of new community spread cases of COVID-19 in Ontario appears to have peaked." This peak has come earlier than was anticipated in prior models thanks to substantial public-health interventions, such as shutting down non-essential businesses. However, the government warns that the virus continues to spread in long-term-care homes and other group settings — and still seems to be growing.

At a press conference Monday afternoon, public-health officials thanked Ontarians for the sacrifices they've made to date in order to control the spread of the virus, but they warned that the current restrictions on public life will need to continue until after May 12.

"These actions are making a difference," said Barbara Yaffe, associate chief medical officer of health. "You need to stay the course and stay strong."

Minister of Health Christine Elliott also commended Ontarians for their efforts to date.

"The information released today shows early but unmistakable signs that our efforts are working," said Elliott. "These numbers are not an accident. They are the result of months of planning and collective action to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve. However, in order for these projections to become reality, each of us must continue to stay home as much possible and practise physical distancing."

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The modelling released today does not project a total number of deaths for the length of the pandemic, as the previous modelling release did. Provincial officials say that the current crisis in the province's long-term-care homes makes projecting a total number of deaths difficult.

Here is the full slide deck produced by the Province of Ontario:

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