‘Stalled’: What Ontario’s latest COVID-19 modelling says

The province has released updated projections on hospital capacity, variants of concern, and more. Read the full briefing
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Mar 11, 2021



Ontario’s progress in fight against the pandemic has “stalled,” according to the latest modelling, which was presented at Queen’s Park Thursday afternoon. University of Toronto’s Adalsteinn Brown warned the public that, while cases of the original COVID-19 are in decline, so-called variants of concern are growing quickly. The net effect is that the total number of cases has flattened somewhat over the past several weeks but could pick up again if Ontario were to relax public-health measures too quickly.

The data presented by Brown also show the impacts of the pandemic on Ontario’s hospital system, where intensive-care units have been overloaded with COVID-19 patients since the second wave began in the fall. Nearly a quarter of a million surgical cases have been backlogged as hospitals struggle to deal with the pandemic, and cancer screenings are still well below where they were in 2019.

The one piece of good news presented Thursday is that the vaccination drive in long-term care has paid off, with major declines in both cases and deaths across the province.

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