Here’s the latest COVID-19 modelling for Ontario

For Ontario hospitals, “business as usual” is still a long ways off — and school reopenings may lead to a temporary increase in cases. Read the latest here
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Jan 28, 2021



Ontario’s latest modelling confirms what the statistics have been making clear for the past week: the number of daily cases has dropped substantially from the post-Christmas peak, but hospital resources are still stretched thin — half of Ontario’s hospitals have only one or two ICU beds available this week.

The province’s modelling suggests that in all but the most optimistic scenarios described, Ontario will still have more than 150 COVID-19 patients in intensive care, preventing a return to “business as usual” in the hospital sector.

A presentation provided to media on Thursday afternoon also suggests that the reopening of the province’s schools will lead to a small, temporary increase in new daily COVID-19 cases through the end of February.

So-called variants of concern are spreading in Ontario, but the experience of other countries suggests that public-health measures already in place “will support continued reductions in cases, even with a return to school.”

You can read the full text of the presentation below.

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