Here’s the latest COVID-19 modelling for Ontario

The province released updated modelling Thursday. Read what it has to say about hospital capacity, case counts, and what may lie ahead
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Nov 26, 2020



At Queen’s Park on Thursday, the provincial government’s medical advisers updated the media on the latest COVID-19 modelling for Ontario’s fall wave.

The briefing, by the University of Toronto’s Adalsteinn Brown; Ontario’s chief coroner, Dirk Huyer; and Chief Medical Officer David Williams shows that the province’s ICUs will have at least 200 COVID-19 patients in care under every scenario they modelled. That’s above the 150-case threshold the government had previously said would lead to the restriction of non-COVID-19 procedures at hospitals.

However, the model also projects that Ontario will not cross the more severe threshold of 350 patients in ICU beds by the end of December in any scenario — something that was a worst-case possibility in the modelling update provided on November 12.

Overall, the province’s data shows a “flattening” of new cases and other indicators around Ontario but higher levels of infection in some regions, especially Peel and Toronto. The briefing indicates that the hardest-hit areas are suffering due to “long-standing structural factors” that have led to higher COVID-19 exposure.

Read the full document:

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