Here’s Ontario’s updated third-wave modelling

New COVID-19 cases are beginning to decline, but hospitals are still under strain — and a fourth wave remains possible. Read the full briefing
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Apr 29, 2021



The province’s modelling outlook for the third wave of the pandemic has improved substantially in the two weeks since its last presentation at Queen’s Park — but there are a number of troubling caveats.

Ontario’s hospital system is still under enormous strain, with patients being sent all over the province for intensive care, and a simple decline in the number of new cases doesn’t do anything for those who are already in ICUs.

The decline in new cases isn’t spread evenly across the province, and some hot spots are still at worryingly high levels. As well, Ontario’s level of testing has flatlined; there are high levels of positivity provincewide, but especially in places such as Peel, Toronto, and York.

The Science Advisory Table warns that mobility is still too high and urges the government to close more non-essential workplaces. Even with a shortened list of permitted workplaces, lower mobility, and optimistic assumptions about the use of paid sick leave, the modelling doesn’t predict a decline in new cases to below 1,000 per day.

Read the full presentation below.

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