Here’s Ontario’s updated COVID-19 modelling (June 10)

According to new projections, case counts will continue to fall — if Ontario can vaccinate fast enough to contain the spread of the Delta variant
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Jun 10, 2021



Ontario can expect the current decline in COVID-19 cases to continue for approximately 10 days; however, the latest modelling briefing, presented to reporters at Queen’s Park on Thursday, warns that the Delta variant (formerly B.1.617) will likely become the dominant strain  in Ontario over the summer. In order to contain the spread as much as possible, the province is being urged to focus vaccinations — particularly second doses, which are most effective against the Delta variant — on the highest-risk communities.

The University of Toronto’s Adalsteinn Brown notes in his presentation that, while vaccines would be focused on high-risk areas, “much of the reduction in cases are in lower-risk communities; benefitting all communities.” That is, containing the spread in hot spots benefits other regions, too.

The modelling also projects that the number of intensive-care patients from COVID-19 could drop below 200 by mid-July, allowing normal hospital service to resume and giving the province a chance to start tackling the massive care backlog generated by the pandemic.

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Read the full briefing below.

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