Here’s Ontario’s updated COVID-19 modelling

The province unveiled new modelling Thursday. Read what it has to say about hospital capacity, infection rates, and the weeks ahead
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Oct 29, 2020



Ontario’s health-care system is at a lower risk of being exhausted, because the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has flattened somewhat in recent days, according to a new analysis of provincial data released at Queen’s Park Thursday afternoon. While there has been an increase in the numbers of hospitalizations and intensive-care unit admissions, the province’s medical experts now believe that they will avoid a critical shortage in all but the worst-case scenario.

Previous modelling presentations declared that the province’s hospitals could maintain their current operations as long as fewer than 150 people were in ICUs with COVID-19; the newly released modelling indicates that the province will likely avoid that scenario, meaning that hospitals will be able to continue to work through the backlog of procedures that built up during the spring shutdown.

However, the pandemic is still having very different effects in different parts of the province. Everything from rate of infection to the length of time it takes to turn around test results varies greatly between regional public-health units.

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The presentation released Thursday concludes that public-health capacity needs to be “levelled up” to further respond to and control the spread of COVID-19 in Ontario.

Read the full document:

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