Here’s Ontario’s latest third-wave COVID-19 modelling

A six-week stay-at-home order and high rates of vaccination are the only ways to flatten Ontario’s current pandemic curve — that and more in the latest modelling briefing
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Apr 16, 2021



To get Ontario’s third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic under control, the province needs to extend its current four-week stay-at-home order to six weeks or substantially increase the rate of vaccinations — or both.

“A 6 week stay-at-home order with a vaccination rate of at least 100K doses per day is the only way to flatten the curve,” reads the presentation from the University of Toronto’s Adalsteinn Brown, delivered at Queen’s Park this afternoon. Ramping the vaccination rate up to 300,000 people per day would help end the crisis even sooner.

Whether Ontario can accommodate 300,000 vaccinations per day is unclear: the province has been averaging approximately 100,000 per day for the past week and has struggled to move its supply of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Earlier on Friday, the federal government confirmed that another shipment of the Moderna vaccine had been delayed but that Ottawa is purchasing millions of additional doses of the Pfizer vaccine to offset that disruption.

Brown’s presentation also emphasizes that the current state of Ontario’s hospitals is dire: care is being compromised for all patients, including those who are not infected with COVID-19.

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Read the complete briefing below.

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