Here’s Ontario’s latest COVID-19 modelling

The province has presented updated projections on case numbers, variants of concern, and more. Read the full briefing
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Feb 25, 2021

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Ontario is in a “critical” few weeks when it comes to understanding the role so-called variants of concern will play in the COVID-19 pandemic — and it will determine whether the province sees a potentially devastating third wave or instead sees the pandemic recede. That’s according to new modelling the government’s scientific advisers presented at Queen’s Park Thursday afternoon.

“We can keep the gains we have made by watching spread very closely and by loosening public health measures only carefully,” reads the presentation from the University of Toronto’s Adalsteinn Brown. “We must be nimble in applying public health measures to extinguish flare ups quickly.”

The modelling also confirms some good news: infections and deaths in long-term care have fallen dramatically as vaccinations have taken hold.

However, the modelling also anticipates a third wave in its late-March “high” or “medium” scenarios, which could peak at 4,000 or 2,500 new daily cases respectively.

The “high,” “medium,” and “low” scenarios modelled by the province’s science advisory table do not show intensive-care admissions falling substantially below the 150-person threshold for resuming normal operations.

Read the full presentation below.

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