Here’s Ontario’s latest COVID-19 modelling

The province released new modelling Thursday. Read what it has to say about case counts, intensive-care capacity, and the government’s handling of the second wave
By John Michael McGrath - Published on Dec 10, 2020



Ontario remains at a “critical juncture” in the second wave of COVID-19 as cases continue to climb. Deaths, especially in long-term care, can be expected to increase in coming weeks. Those are some of the main conclusions from the latest modelling update, which was provided by provincial science advisers at Queen’s Park on Thursday.

The number of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients is expected to stay above 200 and may go higher, according to the presentation from the University of Toronto's Adalsteinn Brown, and “care deficits” will continue, meaning that hospitals will be unable to provide the normal level of procedures due to COVID-19 capacity.

The latest modelling update also provides insights into how different socioeconomic classes have been infected by COVID-19. While cases are rising everywhere in Toronto, for example, the rate of infection for those with the most abundant housing is one-third the rate of infection for those with the least housing. The same broad trends are true for multigenerational households and non-health-care essential workers, such as grocery store and warehouse workers.

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