Election update: What you need to know for October 16

Polls show Conservatives and Liberals locked in a dead heat, and an update from a bellwether riding
By H.G. Watson - Published on Oct 16, 2019
Advance polling in the electoral district of Toronto Centre on October 11. (Doug Ives/CP)



Here’s our daily look at what’s happening on the federal campaign trail.

Latest news

  • Final advance-voting numbers are in, and more Canadians have voted earlier than they did last election. An estimated 4.7 million people voted over the four-day advance-voting period — a 29 per cent increase from the 2015 election. "More and more, Canadians are taking advantage of early voting opportunities to cast their ballots," said Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault in a statement. More detailed estimates will be available soon.
  • With under a week left until election day, the Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a dead heat. CBC’s Poll Tracker has found that the two parties are polling within a percentage point of each other and that the NDP’s numbers have grown in the last week. That leaves the strong possibility that a minority government may be on the horizon.
  • As Peterboroug­–Kawartha goes, so goes the nation. CTV News reports on the mood in the bellwether riding, where a tight race has developed between the Conservatives and the Liberals. However, the local NDP candidate is hopeful that her party may have a breakthrough. “We've seen in the last couple of local elections, that things are shifting here. The demographics have changed. And though you know, there still is a certain feeling of it being a bellwether riding in a lot of ways, the gap between the NDP and the other parties has been narrowing,” NDP candidate Candace Shaw told CTV.
  • Do the gun-control measures introduced in the parties’ platforms do enough? The Toronto Star talked to “advocates, activists, medical professionals, and educators” about why it will take more than gun control to end violence. Among other things, they recommend that we look at the neighbourhoods in Toronto where gun violence is an epidemic and address poverty and housing issues.
  • The Manning Centre will not disclose where it got more than $300,000 in donations that went to organizations running attack ads against the Liberals. “Elections Canada says there is nothing in the law to prevent outside groups from raising money and then passing those donations along to third-party advertisers,” the Globe reports. “However, the group Democracy Watch plans to file a complaint with the federal elections commissioner in response to The Globe and Mail’s reporting on the Manning Centre donations.”

What to watch for

  • Conservative leader Andrew Scheer will hold a campaign event in Saint-Jérôme, Quebec, then make an announcement in Essex and attend another a campaign event in Ancaster.
  • NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will hold an event in Montreal and visit local businesses in Hochelaga.
  • Liberal leader Justin Trudeau will be travelling through Quebec today, making stops in Montreal, Greenfield Park, Chambly, Saint-Hyacinthe, Drummondville, and Sherbrooke.
  • Green leader Elizabeth May will make an announcement in Victoria on health care and pharmacare.
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