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Topic: Jesse Hirsh - The Fall of the Tories and the Rise of the City State

 

I just read a great post by Jesse Hirsh (a former Agenda guest).

 

Instead of viewing the events in Ottawa as the usual "left-right, "east-west" conflict...

Jesse argues that what we're actually seeing is an urban-rural conflict.

 

He argues that consensus is alot harder to achieve with a rural party like Harper's Conservatives.

It's precisely because the opposition comes from an urban base that they achieved consensus so easily.  

 

It reminds me the media mocking Jack Layton for emerging from City Hall. They were shocked that this wheeling & dealing local rep from Toronto would import his urban "bad habits" to our sanctimonious Parliament.

 

But given that we've had minority governments for such a long time...

Don't we need more federal politicians who know how to cut a deal?

 

It's a very unique idea that deserves some exploration.

 

It has me wondering about Federal seat distribution...

Are the 80% urban population of Canada given their deserved amount of seats?

Or has this issue been ignored by the parties for fear of losing rural support, under a rigged system?

 

It also has me wondering about pollsters...

In the lower income nations, pollsters tend to ignore the LARGE rural populations.

But do pollsters in high income nations give too much weight to the SMALL rural populations?

Do polls properly reflect the urban/rural balance? 


Anyways, Jesse's complete article is in the next post...

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Escobar Started on 05 Dec 08 at 3:19 AM 
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 6:03 AM

by Escobar


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The Article...

The Fall of the Tories and the Rise of the City State

By Jesse Hirsh

 

 

 

So it would seem as if the Tories are too clever by half, and their arrogance has been the primary protagonist in their defeat. The opposition parties are in the last stages of forming a new coalition government. However the Tories do have a few tricks in their bag, and will do everything they can to resist their fall, including potentially proroguing parliament until the new year.

 

Yet the door is open and the opportunity for a new political era in Canadian politics is upon us. The Conservative party regards this as an attack from the left, however I think a more accurate description of this conflict is of an urban uprising.

 

It is often taken for granted that Canadian politics is regional, what with the Bloc Quebecois consistently dominating Quebec and the Conservatives dominating the West.

 

Yet the real divide is urban vs rural, with the last two elections virtually shutting the Tories out of major Canadian cities, in west, central, and eastern Canada. Even urban Alberta had a few non-Tory MPs elected.

 

The irony of course is that cities are where the action is, the engine of the global economy, and the front line for the pains and gains that result. In Canada the federal government has either treated the cities with neglect or disdain, limiting and restraining their potential.

 

Now that this same government teeters on the brink of collapse, their reactionary language will lead them to accuse the opposition of staging a coup d'etat, of hijacking the government for their own agenda.

 

Well that agenda is the urban agenda, and what we might be witnessing here is the rise of the city state, at least the Canadian version, i.e. non-violent and still within a geographically broad national federation.

 

A federation comprised of city states would have to be a coalition, as cities are by definition diverse, and these cities would naturally reflect even more divergent cultures. That's why the Liberals, NDP, and BQ would be able to work together. What they share is this urban agenda, which transcends party differences.

 

Of course this federation would not neglect rural areas, but would on the contrary understand the catalytic role that cities are playing globally, and the need for that power to be both supported and unleashed.

 

The opportunity in Canada is to take a backward political culture that is both colonial and patrician, and transform that into an innovative and co-operative culture that has at its root the power of the urban environment.

 

The nature of Canada's current parliament is that only a coalition could bring the urban agenda to power. If effective and stable, this coalition could also set the stage for parliamentary reform and proportional representation that also requires coalitions to govern.

 

Interesting times indeed, and the question of leadership will determine whether we make it to a new configuration, or whether all these crazy ideas die in the dead cold of the approaching winter. The key will be whether this leadership can be collaborative rather combative.

 

Myself I'm all for a rotating the role of PM amongst a number of people, including NDP leader Jack Layton, until the Liberal leadership can be settled, whether in May 2009 or via an accelerated process. Too unstable you say? Why have only one person in the highest position of power?

 

If it were to be one, I'd think John McCallum would get the nod.

 

Although perhaps I was right initially and the Tories are engineering their own defeat to pass the reins to their opposition at what may be the hardest time in modern history to govern. Although while some might make the suggestion, I doubt there will be protests at the airport to defeat the Tories. Really this has been their government to lose. Now that they're losing it, we'll see how they fight to keep it.




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Escobar Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 3:20 AM
by Escobar
.

I've been saying the same thing as Hirsh for the past 5 years.

Canadian elections are all about Class Warfare. City residents against rural residents. Brampton and York Region were well known for chasing the poor into Toronto for years and years. The Toronto police were so upset with this warfare, that in many cases they refused to co-operate with York Regional with criminal investigations.

The community councils in rural or rich areas of Canada refuse to fund welfare for any resident in need. Thus; they force every unemployed person out of their community and into the city such as Toronto. Out of sight .... Out of mind. Then, they complain about taxes and resent investments or rob the cities of infrastructure monies to deal with the poor, while at the same time insist on tax breaks.

Then, they insist that thousands of cops be hired at 100 thousand a year each to ensure that the poor don't try and make their way back into the community which has just evicted them and forced them to move to the cities.

Rural Folks in rural areas got no problem paying for 75 thousand a year to house a prisoner in a pennitentiary because they are built in rural areas which provides employment for rural voters and a tax base. They refuse to invest money into the cities, but encourage the building of prisons in the middle of some farmer's field.

Calm

 



Calm is my default and not simply my fault. A suspicion counter, gainfully employed by Suspicious Minds. A psychic amnesiac with peripheral vision. I know in advance what I'll forget. And most times I see far into the future, but just way off to one side.



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Calm Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 4:49 AM
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 5:03 AM

by Calm
The Urban-Rural Divide

There has always been an urban-rural divide, the way of life of each is so uniquely different, however I think what is exacerbating the "conflict" is the fear and resentment of immigrants. Many Canadians, especially those living outside the cities, feel the "Canadian way of life" is being hijacked by immigrants. In fact, many people have moved away from urban centres to escape immigrant communities. My father lives in an adult townhouse community and last summer I had the occasion to attend an outdoor party there. I met three elderly couples who moved from neighborhoods in Toronto because of the encroachment of new immigrants. The venom they expressed about what they saw as the decline of Canada, was disturbing.

 

It is interesting to note that there is a similar divide in the U.S.-Republican/rural vs. Democrat/urban. 




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No Avatar Uploaded Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 9:58 AM
by 2h
Rural-urban divide?
Of course, there is a rural-urban divide, but there is more to it than that. There is also an East-West divide, and a Quebec-Rest of Canada divide. This is all clear from the election results, so the analysis is not as simple as Jesse suggests.


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Boris Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 1:17 PM
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 1:23 PM

by Boris
RE: Rural-urban divide?


Boris said:

Of course, there is a rural-urban divide, but there is more to it than that. There is also an East-West divide, and a Quebec-Rest of Canada divide. This is all clear from the election results, so the analysis is not as simple as Jesse suggests.

 

I want to add some "popular support" caveats to what you said. 

 

If we're talking about the west (BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, & Manitoba)...

In BC & Manitoba, the Lib/Dem/Green won the popular vote.

The Tories won the popular vote in Alberta & Saskatchewan.

 

If we're talking about Quebec vs. "The Rest of Canada"...

The "rest of Canada" voted for more Lib/Dem/Green than Conservatives.

Quebec was just the icing on the cake.

 

If we're talking "urban", a quick look at the "major centres" data suggests...

The Conservatives lost almost every major city in Canada.

They were even shut out of most western cities.

Their only major city wins coming in Calgary & Edmonton.

 

Again, we're talking "popular vote" here.

A guage of popular sentiment.

 

This at a time when the Liberals were fielding their weakest leader in modern history.

You would expect a Conservative sweep across English Canada & the cities.

But they couldn't pull it off. Cry




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Escobar Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 5:10 PM
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 5:16 PM

by Escobar
Question

 

My question for everyone:


Does the current seat distribution reflect that 80% of Canadians live in urban areas?

 

Is federal seat distribution regularly adjusted to reflect population concentration?

 

Or has the seat count been this way since confederation?

 

(I know I can google for this info, but I'm busy with other work.

So perhaps someone who already knows can answer it for me Sealed).




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Escobar Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 5:13 PM
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 5:18 PM

by Escobar
City State
I would suggest that the rural / urban divide is based on something different alltogether. Cities are in fact quite weak economically and politically, they have to run hat in hand to the provincial and / or federal powers that be for all major projects or policy decisions. Their tax base is not proportional to their infrastructure demands. This situation is an accident of Confederation, a time when the provinces and federation were mostly rural. It might be argued that metropolitan regions such as Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver should in fact be provinces in their own right. At present they send their money to the provincials / federals, then have to beg for it to fund projects according to provincial or federal criteria, which are obsolete. There needs to be more focus on metropolitan issues, and their ability to have more direct governance backed by the apropriate tax base.


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No Avatar Uploaded Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 8:26 PM
by DieterH
RE: The Urban-Rural Divide



2h said:

There has always been an urban-rural divide, the way of life of each is so uniquely different, however I think what is exacerbating the "conflict" is the fear and resentment of immigrants. Many Canadians, especially those living outside the cities, feel the "Canadian way of life" is being hijacked by immigrants. In fact, many people have moved away from urban centres to escape immigrant communities. My father lives in an adult townhouse community and last summer I had the occasion to attend an outdoor party there. I met three elderly couples who moved from neighborhoods in Toronto because of the encroachment of new immigrants. The venom they expressed about what they saw as the decline of Canada, was disturbing.

 

It is interesting to note that there is a similar divide in the U.S.-Republican/rural vs. Democrat/urban. 

 

If you are correct about large numbers of older Canadians being unreasonably hostile towards immigrants, you can count on having the problem solve itself - one funeral at a time.



"We don't see things as they are. We see things as we are."    A. Nin



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Ex-T Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 8:43 PM
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 8:44 PM

by Ex-T
RE: Question




Escobar said:

 

My question for everyone:


Does the current seat distribution reflect that 80% of Canadians live in urban areas?

 

Of course not.  There is no intention that it should.  The cities are deliberately badly short-changed of seats.   It's a hangover from the days, when rural ridings were so much larger, and transportation and communication were much more difficult in them than in compact urban ridings.   This is no longer the case, but the two old parties like to pretend that it is.

 

Is federal seat distribution regularly adjusted to reflect population concentration?

 

There is an authority that studies re-distribution constantly.  After each ten year census it reports to Parliament, and changes are made to some riding boundaries, and to the number of seats in Parliament.  

 

The number of Quebec seats remains constant, and all of the other provinces are compared to Quebec. (Let me say that is a perfectly fair system by the way, in case anyone of you thinks that it is not.)

 

An exception is Prince Edward Island which is massively over-represented, because of a clause that says no province can have fewer M.P's than it has Senators.  (P.E.I. has four of each.)

 

The recommendations of the most recent report were badly skewed so that Ontario will not get all of the extra seats that it deserves, based upon population increases here.    This province deserves 21 more seats, but it will get only 10.   B.C. and Alberta will of course get their fair share.  That seems to please people in the rest of the country, Conservatives are particularly delighted with the news.

 Frown  

 

If, like Stephen Harper,  you live in Alberta, and you were smart enough to put all of that petroleum and natural gas into the ground in the first place, you can't see any reason why Ontario should get its fair share of federal ridings.

Wink 

 

Or has the seat count been this way since confederation?

Answered above. 



"We don't see things as they are. We see things as we are."   A. Nin

 

Yes, particularly if we're Albertans. 




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Ex-T Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 8:58 PM
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 9:19 PM

by Ex-T
RE: City State




DieterH said: I would suggest that the rural / urban divide is based on something different alltogether. Cities are in fact quite weak economically and politically, they have to run hat in hand to the provincial and / or federal powers that be for all major projects or policy decisions. Their tax base is not proportional to their infrastructure demands. This situation is an accident of Confederation, a time when the provinces and federation were mostly rural. It might be argued that metropolitan regions such as Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver should in fact be provinces in their own right. At present they send their money to the provincials / federals, then have to beg for it to fund projects according to provincial or federal criteria, which are obsolete. There needs to be more focus on metropolitan issues, and their ability to have more direct governance backed by the apropriate tax base.

 

The situation in much of Europe is decidedly different than in Canada.   Cities are much more autonomous there - much less dependent on "higher" levels of government. 

 

We are still in the 19th century in that respect. 



"We don't see things as they are. We see things as we are."    A. Nin



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Ex-T Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 9:23 PM
Last edit: 05 Dec 08 at 9:23 PM

by Ex-T
Cities much more autonomous in Europe?
Some cities, perhaps, Ex-T. Hamburg and Bremen certainly and Berlin, no doubt. But in general, European cities come under regional, departmental or state governments just as they do here.


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Boris Posted on 05 Dec 08 at 9:29 PM
by Boris
Put it in the Ground First

( Ex-T ): If, like Stephen Harper,  you live in Alberta, and you were smart enough to put all of that petroleum and natural gas into the ground in the first place,

 

Actually a brilliant idea - it would save all the geological prospecting costs. Be careful what you post ....... it might be taken seriously ! Charles may be interested, he would know where all the gold, diamonds and oil are stashed .-) ... and just truck it away again when needed.




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No Avatar Uploaded Posted on 07 Dec 08 at 8:10 PM
by DieterH
Autonomy of Cities

( Boris ): But in general, European cities come under regional, departmental or state governments just as they do here.

 

I very much suspect, given the early history of European cities, that they in fact have acquired more autonomy. They were the first to throw off the yoke of feudalism and sovereign subjection. The big cities ( Paris / London / Berlin / Petersburg ..... ) were in fact hot beds of revolution against the monarchies. Might be a good Agenda topic, to discuss the balance of power: Canadian cities vs. provincial and federal priorities.




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No Avatar Uploaded Posted on 07 Dec 08 at 8:18 PM
by DieterH
not sure

 

 

While I agree with both Boris and Dieter there is also conflict within the "urban" side of the equation.  Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to a much lesser extent may vote in blocks for mainly one party Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Ottawa, London, Kitchener, Quebec City and Halifax do not.  My point is that there is divide on the urban part of the equation so maybe it is the big 3 versus the ROC as the Tories seem to have a current lock on the rural side of the equation.  Maybe a majority for any party needs to be won in the remainder of the urban vote and not in the big 3?  Maybe the issues in the balance of metropolitan areas are slightly different than in the big 3?




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leaffan444 Posted on 08 Dec 08 at 11:32 AM
by leaffan444
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